Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry, suggesting a volatile market environment with mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The core logic of the report highlights increased maintenance of production facilities, a rise in port deliveries, and a growing willingness to replenish stocks among downstream buyers [4][2]. - The report notes that while coal prices are under pressure, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward momentum for prices but also constrained downside potential [1]. - Methanol production capacity utilization is expected to rise in the short term, but planned maintenance and production cuts may lead to a decrease in output in the future [1]. Market Dynamics - Futures market sentiment is positive, leading to smooth transactions in the afternoon with some companies halting sales to support prices, resulting in a general increase in spot prices [1]. - The total futures holdings decreased by 2,007 contracts, indicating a slight reduction in market activity [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the impact of maintenance on production facilities, with several key plants undergoing repairs, which may affect overall industry output [1]. - Port inventories have increased by 24,500 tons to 561,900 tons, but the pace of inventory accumulation aligns with expectations, suggesting a potential recovery in market demand [1]. Price Movements - The report provides specific price movements, with the closing price for methanol futures on May 12, 2025, at 2,270 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.93% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Regional price differences are noted, with Jiangsu's price at 2,422 CNY/ton, a 1.02% increase, while prices in other regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan remained stable [9]. Industry Chain Profits - The report details production profits for various production methods, with Northwest coal-based production showing a profit of 597 CNY/ton, while MTO processes remain in significant losses [13]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid are experiencing varying profit margins, with acetic acid showing a profit of 242.12 CNY/ton [13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Sino - US talks had better - than - expected positive effects, leading to an increase in EG prices. The commodity market was strong, the ethylene glycol market was firm, and the basis strengthened due to tightened spot liquidity [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic is that the Sino - US negotiation had positive progress, improving the macro sentiment. On the supply side, the warehouse receipt volume increased significantly, tightening the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. - The strategy suggests a short - term cautious bullish view on the single - side trade. It also recommends a positive spread for the inter - period trade and no operation for the inter - variety trade [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4302 yuan/ton (up 84 yuan/ton, +1.99% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4406 yuan/ton (up 106 yuan/ton, +2.47% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 127 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 88 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference There is no specific data or analysis about international price difference provided other than the mention of the figure "EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 69.2 tons (up 0.4 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, the A - share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.63%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Different futures varieties presented various trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index was strong, while the coke and coking coal futures showed weak rebounds and oscillations respectively. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc. were affected by multiple factors such as international market conditions, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On May 12, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10301.16 points, up 1.72%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2064.71 points, up 2.63%. The trading volume was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3890.61, up 44.45 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On May 12, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1474.0 yuan, up 10.9; the coking coal weighted index had a weak oscillation, closing at 889.6 yuan, up 5.4. For coke, some steel mills lowered the purchase base price, and the coke output decreased slightly this week. However, steel mills had a rigid demand for coke. For coking coal, domestic mines increased production steadily, the coking enterprise's replenishment demand slowed down, and the port coking coal was expected to continue de - stocking [2][3][4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar continued to rebound from the low last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated upwards on May 12 due to factors such as the rise of US sugar, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, and the increase in spot quotes. It oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of mid - April, Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. Brazil exported 1.5558 million tons of sugar and molasses in April, a year - on - year decrease of 17.65% [4]. **Rubber** - Affected by the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, the Shanghai rubber oscillated upwards on May 12 and oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. **Palm Oil** - On May 12, palm oil rebounded slightly from the low. The main contract P2509 closed at 8024 yuan, up 1.75%. As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 337,300 tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week and a 15.62% decrease from the same period last year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month [5][7]. **Soybean Meal** - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed up, hitting a three - month high. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' expectations. The US soybean planting rate as of May 11 was 48%, higher than market expectations. In the domestic market, on May 12, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2509 contract closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The inventory of soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded but was still low. In the future, the market may oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [7]. **Live Pigs** - On May 12, live pig futures oscillated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The current consumer demand for fresh pork is weak, and the market is in a pattern of sufficient supply. The futures may oscillate weakly [8]. **Shanghai Copper** - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, with an increase in positions. The copper concentrate supply is still tight, but the domestic port inventory is sufficient, and the supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. The downstream consumption support may weaken, and the inventory is still decreasing but at a slower rate. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the domestic monetary policy bring positive signals [8]. **Iron Ore** - On May 12, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and rose by 3.16%, closing at 718.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly，but were still at a high level. The iron ore market may oscillate in the short term [9]. **Asphalt** - On May 12, the 2506 main contract of asphalt oscillated and rose by 1.55%, closing at 3481 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt increased, and social inventory accumulated slightly. The demand release was still average, and the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. **Cotton** - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,310 yuan/ton at the night session on Monday. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 124 lots compared with the previous day [9]. **Logs** - On May 12, the 2507 log contract opened at 790.5, with the lowest at 787, the highest at 810, and closed at 804, with a reduction of 4061 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port inventory decreased, and the overall demand was weak. Attention should be paid to import data and downstream purchasing and traders' price - holding intentions [9][11]. **Steel** - On May 12, rb2510 closed at 3082 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3220 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade talks brought positive news, but the inventory reduction of sample steel slowed down. The export of steel in May and June is expected to continue to increase, especially the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry [11]. **Alumina** - On May 12, ao2509 closed at 2843 yuan/ton. The production of alumina decreased temporarily, and the inventory decreased. However, once the profit is restored, production capacity will resume on a large scale. The cost has decreased, and the short - term rebound of the futures price will be limited [12]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On May 12, al2506 closed at 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level. The demand support has slightly weakened, and the overall consumption is expected to decline in the future, but there is still some resilience at present [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly bullish (trend intensity = 2): None - Bullish (trend intensity = 1): PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][12][13][16][19][22][46][86] - Neutral (trend intensity = 0): LLDPE, PP,烧碱, glass, methanol, urea,纯碱, PVC [34][38][41][50][53][59][66][81] - Bearish (trend intensity = - 1): benzene ethylene, LPG [63][70] - Strongly bearish (trend intensity = - 2): None 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple energy - chemical commodities, covering market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements. It suggests that the overall market is influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, trade policies, and industry - specific supply - demand balances. For example, the Sino - US trade reconciliation has a positive impact on market sentiment, but different commodities face different supply - demand situations, leading to varying price trends [7][12][34]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral shock is bullish. Supply - side issues include load reduction of some domestic and overseas devices, while demand - side PTA device maintenance is still high. In the medium - to - long - term, PTA processing fees are difficult to expand, and attention should be paid to positions where PTA processing fees are compressed [12]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend is bullish. The supply decreases while demand increases, and inventory is continuously depleted. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, textile and clothing export demand is expected to increase, and polyester production and sales continue to rise. It is recommended to short PTA processing fees at high prices [12]. - **MEG**: Hold the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The basis and monthly spread will strengthen in May. Supply - side starts are expected to remain flat, port arrivals decrease, and polyester demand improves [13]. Rubber - The market is bullish with a shock. The futures market shows an increase in prices and trading volume, and the spot market price is fully adjusted upwards. The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly, and the macro - news is favorable [14][16][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Driven by macro - economic recovery, it is running strongly. The cost of butadiene is stable, the demand from the synthetic rubber end increases, and the valuation of butadiene rubber provides some support for prices [19][20]. Asphalt - With the rebound of crude oil, it is in a strong shock. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts have changed, and the inventory of refineries has increased slightly. The overall market is affected by the price trend of crude oil [22][33]. LLDPE - It is in a wide - range shock. Although the Sino - US reconciliation is positive in sentiment, the supply pressure of polyethylene is still high, demand faces negative feedback, and the market tends to short polyethylene profits [34][35]. PP - The price is in a shock, and low - level transactions are good. The futures market is volatile, and the spot market is affected by macro - news. Low - price transactions improved in the afternoon [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in a short - term shock, and there is still pressure in the later stage. Short - term downstream replenishment supports the price rebound, but future production is still high. Demand is in the off - season, and supply reduction is needed to balance supply and demand [41][42]. Paper Pulp - It is bullish with a shock. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of coniferous pulp has been raised, but the actual transaction is mainly for small orders with rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment of downstream paper mills and port inventory changes [46][48]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market price is mainly stable with partial minor adjustments, and regional production, sales, and inventory vary [50]. Methanol - With the improvement of macro - sentiment, it is in a short - term shock. The spot price has increased slightly, and the inventory in some ports has accumulated. The import pressure in June is expected to be high [53][56][57]. Urea - It is in a shock with support. The futures market is in a long - short game, and the price has toughness due to the release of demand in some regions. The enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [60][61][62]. Benzene Ethylene - It is in a short - term shock. Pure benzene is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term downward space but still weak in the medium - term. Benzene ethylene is expected to compress profits from May to June [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is stable with a shock, the supply is slightly down, and downstream demand is weak, with a short - term stable trend expected [66][68]. LPG - The impact of tariffs has eased, and the internal market support is weak. The futures price has declined slightly, and the operating rates of some downstream industries have changed. Multiple PDH devices are under maintenance [70][77]. PVC - It is in a temporary shock market. Although the Sino - US reconciliation is positive in sentiment, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session is in a narrow - range shock, and the night session rises sharply. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the strength of crude oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market continues to retract [86].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-13 中美关系缓和，棉价应声上涨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13240元/吨，较前一日变动+290元/吨，幅度+2.24%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14085元/吨，较前一日变动+174元/吨，现货基差CF09+845，较前一日变动-116；3128B棉全国均价14187元 /吨，较前一日变动+65元/吨，现货基差CF09+947，较前一日变动-225。 近期市场资讯，4月巴西棉出口量为23.9万吨，环比（23.9万吨）基本持平，同比（24.2万吨）略减1.0%。从当月出 口目的地看，土耳其为主要出口国，出口量占总量的22%；巴基斯坦出口量排第二，占比20%；孟加拉出口量排第 三，占比17%；越南出口量排第四，占比16%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度远超出市场预期，中美经贸关系 快速缓和，支撑棉价偏强运行。国际方面，随着北半球陆续进入播种期，关注焦点已逐渐转移到新季供应，美棉 新年度缩种预期较强，支撑ICE美棉期价。不过近期美棉播种进度加快，主产区降雨恢复，旱情环比改善。后续需 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price is weakly stable, and the futures market rebounds after a decline, mainly influenced by macro - sentiment. The supply side has cost pressure and some production cuts, but raw material prices are falling. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is further weakened. The total industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are relatively high [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures market continues to repair upward, and the spot market price stabilizes with some increases. Under the background of industry self - restricted production, polysilicon production remains low, inventory is falling, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The demand side also shows signs of weakness, and the number of warehouse receipts is low [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On May 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2506 opened at 8275 yuan/ton and closed at 8320 yuan/ton, a change of 0.24% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 171,625 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 12 was 67,097 lots, a decrease of 241 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. The prices of various grades of silicon have decreased. The silicon coal prices in major production areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi have dropped, weakening the cost support [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The organic silicon DMC quotation is 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The recent trading volume is average, and manufacturers have high inventory pressure, so they lower the price to accept orders [2]. - **Strategy**: For industrial silicon, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to repair upward, opening at 38,100 yuan/ton and closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 69,417 lots, and the trading volume was 322,808 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The prices of various types of polysilicon remain unchanged. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers has decreased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has also declined [5]. - **Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, and most of them remain stable [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, under industry self - restriction, polysilicon production remains low, and inventory is falling. On the demand side, the battery production rate and total output of Chinese enterprises in April and May are given, and some photovoltaic component enterprises have plans to further reduce production [7]. - **Strategy**: For polysilicon, the short - term strategy for the 2506 contract is to be cautiously bullish [8].

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-13 山东下游采购价上调，烧碱走势回升 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4836元/吨（+31）；华东基差-146元/吨（-41）;华南基差-86元/吨（-31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4690元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-705元/吨（-116）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润2.1美元/吨（-10.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC社会库存41.0万吨（+0.6）；PVC电石法开工率79.99%（+2.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.26%（-2.26%）；PVC开工率77.85%（+1.05%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量52.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2545元/吨（+69）；山东32%液碱基差49元/吨（-38）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+10 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-05-13 市场偏观望，尿素窄幅震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-05-12，尿素主力收盘1897元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1930 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1970元/吨（+50）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1940元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差： 73元/吨（+46）；河南基差：33元/吨（+16）；江苏基差：43元/吨（+6）；尿素生产利润503元/吨（+50），出口利润 453元/吨（+681）。 供应端：截至2025-05-12，企业产能利用率86.48%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.56 万吨（-12.61），港口样 本库存量为13.30 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-05-12，复合肥产能利用率37.90%（-2.70%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为75.24%（+0.08%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.82日（-1.65）。 前期受尿素出口方面消息影响，下游提货速度加快，部分企业订单增量，目前市场偏观望为主，尿素盘面窄幅波 动。部分尿素检修装置逐步恢复重启，新增装置释放产能，尿素产量高位运行。煤炭与天 ...

| | 1、 据美国农业部，5月美国2025/2026年度大豆产量预期为43.4亿蒲式耳，市场预期为43.38亿 | | --- | --- | | | 蒲式耳。5月美国2025/2026年度大豆期末库存预期为2.95亿蒲式耳，市场预期为3.62亿蒲式耳。 | | | 5月美国2025/2026年度大豆单产预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩，市场预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩。2、美 | | 行业 | 国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月11日当周，美国大豆种植率为 | | 信息 | 48%，高于市场预期的47%，此前一周为30%，去年同期为34%，五年均值为37%。 美国玉米种植率 | | | 为62%，高于市场预期的60%，此前一周为40%，去年同期为47%，五年均值为56%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆粕偏强震荡，菜粕震荡收跌。近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种 | | | 工作的推进。USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中 | | | 美双方在瑞士进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善美豆期价明显反弹。国内 | | | 方面， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weak and volatile [1] - Alumina: Consolidating at low levels [1] 2. Core View The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads in the futures market, as well as inventory, production costs, and corporate profitability in the spot market. It also provides the latest market news and trend strength indicators [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 19,910 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,779 lots, an increase of 71,128 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was $2,470/ton, up $52/ton. The LME注销仓单占比 was 37.69%, down 0.31% [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,843 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 859,878 lots, a decrease of 110,097 lots. The position was 272,614 lots, a decrease of 1,213 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 608,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons. The aluminum spot import profit and loss was -1,251.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.72 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: On May 12, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton. Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [1][3]. Market News - On May 12, Shandong traded 2,000 tons of spot alumina at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton [1]. - Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [3]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 0 - Alumina trend strength: 0 [3]