1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，因其在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，且今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] -铝土矿预计价格维持弱势震荡，虽北方地区国产矿供应偏紧，但铝土矿绝对库存仍处高位，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿偏低[4] -铝价预计短期高位震荡，宏观多空情绪交织，基本面对海外供应收紧有预期，国内淡季来临消费延后兑现，库存走势反复且上方有压力[5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材方面 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右[3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝土矿方面 -北方地区国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，因接受环保督察开采未恢复，但铝土矿绝对库存高位，供应整体宽松，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿低[4] 铝价方面 -本周国内铝加工龙头企业周度开工率环比增0.3%至62.3%，铝型材等板块开工有好转[4] -周度铝水比例连续三周回落，铝锭供应压力略增，但铝价高位回落使近一周国内铝锭和铝棒出库量环比分别增20%和13%，带动铝锭库存降至60万吨以下[4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下跌1.7万吨，较上周四下跌2.5万吨[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Overall Market - Overseas, US employment data shows significant differentiation. The Fed's 12 - month rate - cut expectation is strengthened, and the focus is on November employment data and the Fed chair selection process. Domestically, the economic fundamentals cool marginally, but policy remains firm, and the market expects more policies. [2] - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to "oscillate and build a bottom, with a slowly declining central value". RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, but it's hard to have a unilateral rapid appreciation in the short - term. [4] Commodities - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand will push up prices. Short - term, focus on the December Fed rate - cut expectation and 60 - day moving average. [12] - Copper prices are expected to be strong, with the futures price possibly breaking through 87,000. [13][14] - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. [15] - Zinc is expected to oscillate. [16] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are in a wait - and - see state. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger. [17][18] - Tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and it's recommended to enter the market on dips. [18] - Lithium carbonate may have a phased correction, and it's advisable to enter on dips after the correction. [20] - Industrial silicon will oscillate in the short - term and has long - term value for bottom - fishing. Polysilicon should pay attention to the position risk. [21][22] - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar may move between 2,900 - 3,200, and hot - rolled coils between 3,100 - 3,400. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] - Coking coal's 01 contract may be under pressure, while the 05 contract has long - term long - allocation potential. Coke's short - selling space is limited. [28][29] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly. [33] - PX - PTA may correct, and it's advisable to go long after the correction. [33][34][35] - MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. [38] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. [40] - PE is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a put - option strategy can be considered. [42] - Pure benzene and styrene are affected by export and maintenance news. Pay attention to actual transactions and maintenance plans. [43] - Fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. Consider widening the high - low sulfur spread. [44][45][46] - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] - Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] - Soda ash is expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [51] - Glass's 01 contract will follow the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - Caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high - level supply pressure. [54] - Logs' 01 contract is weak in reality, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] - Propylene's supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: China promotes new business forms and AI application, urges a solution for Anshi Semiconductor, and Vanke discusses bond extension. US jobless claims fall, durable goods orders rise, and the Fed's Beige Book shows limited economic change. The UK announces a tax - increase plan, and there are developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthened. Domestically, economic fundamentals cool, but policy is firm. [2] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthens against the USD. Policies are introduced to boost consumption, and the New Zealand central bank cuts rates. The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD in the long - term but may slow down in the short - term. [3][4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices fall. Rumors of new public - fund fee regulations may cause selling pressure, but policies may hedge it. It's advisable to go long on dips. [5] - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Futures prices fall due to the Red Sea resumption expectation and weak spot prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. It's advisable to hold mid - term long positions and go long on dips. [5][6][7] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Prices rise. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and delivery pressure affect prices. Platinum and palladium futures are listed. [9] - **Rate - cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The Fed's rate - cut probability is high. Gold ETF holdings increase, while silver, platinum, and palladium ETF holdings change differently. Inventories of gold and silver change. [10] - **This Week's Focus**: US Thanksgiving affects CME precious - metal trading hours. [11] - **View**: In the medium - to - long - term, prices will rise. Short - term, focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and technical indicators. [12] Copper - **Market Review**: Copper prices rise. The basis and the Shanghai - London ratio change. [13] - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventories change, and the 2026 copper concentrate benchmark price may decline. US jobless claims data is released. [13][14] - **View and Strategy**: Spot trading has a price - pressing mentality, but futures have an upward expectation. It's advisable to pay attention to support and pressure levels and go long on dips for downstream enterprises. [14] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices change. [14] - **Core View**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina weakly, and cast aluminum alloy at a high level. [15] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices oscillate, and the night - session opens higher. [16] - **Core Logic**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is high, and the dollar is weak. The smelting end has a strong demand for ore, and domestic inventories are decreasing while LME inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate. [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rise. [17] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices, premiums, and inventories are reported. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel - iron prices fall, and stainless steel has export benefits but weak demand. [18] Tin - **Market Review**: Tin prices oscillate, and the night - session price rises due to long - position funds. [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is weaker than demand due to production resumption issues. It's recommended to enter on dips. [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and trading volume and open interest increase. [19] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and downstream materials change. [19] - **View**: In December, the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price may correct at 100,000 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to go long on dips. [20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Futures prices change, and trading volume and open interest change. [20] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of industrial silicon and photovoltaic products change. [21] - **View**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks. [21][22] Lead - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillate, and the night - session price is pressured. [22][23] - **Core Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Review**: Prices fall slightly. Iron ore affects the rise of finished - product prices. [25] - **Core Logic**: Steel supply and demand both increase, and inventories decline slowly. Iron ore prices oscillate. Finished - product prices are expected to oscillate within a range. [25] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Prices are at a high - level oscillation. [24] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and electric - furnace steel mills' capacity utilization and scrap consumption change. [26] - **View**: Prices are strong in the short - term, affected by coking coal. It's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices are at the bottom and oscillate widely. [27] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and coking coal auction prices fall. [27][28] - **Core Logic**: Coking coal supply is marginally loose, and demand is weak. Coke has priced in multiple rounds of price cuts. It's advisable to go long on coking coal's 05 contract on dips and avoid short - selling coke blindly. [28][29] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Review**: Prices fall. [29] - **Core Logic**: Steel mills' profitability declines, iron - water production decreases, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese face high - inventory and weak - demand issues. It's expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals LPG - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices change. [32] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand change slightly, and inventories increase. [32] - **View**: The RMB - denominated LPG is relatively strong, and the market may oscillate strongly. [33] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is expected to be high, and PTA has many shutdowns. Polyester demand is expected to be high. PX benefits are good, and PTA processing fees are low. [33][34][35] - **View**: The PX - PTA market is affected by oil - blending speculation. It's advisable to go long on dips after the correction. [35] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory and Devices**: Port inventory is stable, and some devices restart or shut down. [35][36] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand is expected to be high. Inventories may decline to a tight balance. [36][37] - **View**: Demand is stable, but supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. It's advisable to sell call options on rebounds. [38] PP - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [38] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and demand growth slows after the "Double 11" festival. Inventories decline. [39] - **View**: PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to weak demand and cost support. [40] PE - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [41] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand weakens as the agricultural - film season ends. Inventories decline. [41][42] - **View**: PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and is expected to oscillate at a low level. It's advisable to use a put - option strategy. [42] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise. [42] - **Inventory and View**: Pure - benzene and styrene inventories change. The market is affected by export and maintenance news. [42][43] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: Futures prices are reported. [43] - **Industry Performance**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil change in November, and inventories change. [43][44][45] - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply increases, and demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply may be affected by refinery issues, and demand is relatively stable. High - sulfur cracking is expected to fall, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. [44][45][46] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices change. [47] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, demand increases slightly, and inventories decline. [47][48] - **View**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Macro and Inventory Information**: China conducts MLF operations, and US economic data is released. Rubber inventories change, and Thailand's floods affect production. [48][49] - **Core View**: Rubber supply tightens, and demand weakens. It's expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Inventory decreases, and it's expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [50][51] - **Glass**: The 01 contract follows the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices change locally, and supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high - level supply pressure. [54] Logs - **Market and Valuation**: Futures prices change, and spot prices and inventory costs are reported. [54][55] - **Core Contradiction**: The 01 contract is weak in reality, and the 03 contract has a weak peak - season expectation. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] Propylene - **Market Dynamics**: Futures prices fall, and the PP - PL spread compresses. [57] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand increases. Other downstream industries have low profit levels. [57][58] - **View**: Supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Futures prices rise, and spot prices change. The near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59]

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [4] 铝锭 -市场关注海外铝厂减产消息，有供应收紧预期，部分需求后移，氧化铝行业利润收缩，北方环保监察，新疆交割库累库加剧基本面压力 [3][4] -上周铝加工行业淡季特征深化，各板块结构性分化，原生铝合金开工率稳定，铝线缆开工率回升，多数板块面临下行压力 [4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下降1.7万吨，较上周四下降2.5万吨 [4] -宏观多空情绪交织，国内淡季下游走弱库存走势反复，预计价格区间震荡，关注库消走势和矿端情况 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

Overall Investment Ratings No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to show a pattern of "oscillating to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value." Domestic pro - growth policies are entering the implementation phase at the end of the year, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand is rising, increasing the intrinsic appreciation power of the RMB. However, short - term one - sided rapid appreciation is unlikely. The upside potential of the US dollar is weaker than in the previous cycle [2]. - For various commodities: - Precious metals: In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the Fed's December interest rate cut expectations and the 60 - day moving average. Gold resistance is at 4250, support at 4000, and strong support at 3900. Silver resistance is at 52.5, support at 49, and strong support at 47 [12]. - Copper: The copper market lacks a driving force and is expected to remain volatile. The price faces resistance at 86500 - 86600 and is accepted around 86000 [14]. - Aluminum industry chain: For electrolytic aluminum, short - term macro factors are positive, and focus on the probability of interest rate cuts. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum prices, and pay attention to the price difference between alloy and aluminum [16]. - Zinc: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They had a short - term correction. Be cautious about Indonesian policy stimuli. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger than the upside, and pay attention to long - term export expectations for stainless steel [18][19]. - Tin: It is affected by news and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited [20]. - Steel products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Iron ore is expected to be relatively strong. Coking coal and coke: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal is strengthening. Ferroalloys are expected to be weak with oscillations [21][22][27]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern. LPG is expected to oscillate. PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation fades, and there are support levels for operation. MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. Methanol's 01 contract has limited upside. PP's downside space is limited. PE is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak with oscillations. Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening. Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to winter storage policies. Rubber and 20 - grade rubber are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Urea is expected to continue to oscillate. For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, supply disturbances are increasing [31][35][38][41][44][45][46][49][52]. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, US employment data is divided, and Fed officials' statements increase the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but policy is firm, and the market expects more policies. The release of the US Q3 GDP forecast is postponed, and the PCE price index will be released on December 5 [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1056, up 47 points, and the mid - price was 7.0847, up 28 points. The USD/CNY spot rate may "oscillate to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value" [1][2]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was mixed. The decline in trading volume was 2378.87 billion yuan. External disturbances are both positive and negative, and the stock index is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose slightly, and the capital was loose. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and the mid - term has room for an increase. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The SCFIS was 1639.37, up 20%. The futures market was slightly down. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term. Traders can choose different strategies according to their types [5][6][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Monday, precious metal prices rose due to an over - 80% expectation of a December interest rate cut. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise, and short - term attention should be paid to the interest rate cut expectation and technical indicators [10][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was mixed in different markets. The market lacks a driving force and is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has support at the bottom [15][16]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuated in a narrow range. The reduction in smelting TC in November may lead to production cuts, and the inventory is changing [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and long - term export expectations [17][18][19]. - **Tin**: It was affected by news from the Congo and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - **Lead**: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited due to raw material shortages and cost support [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand and supply of steel products increased this week, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upside. They are expected to oscillate in a range [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: It is relatively strong. The price is affected by coking coal and its own fundamentals. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before short - selling [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's 1 - 5 spread is strengthening. The supply of coking coal is marginally loose, and the demand is weak in the short - term, but it has support in the mid - term [24][26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations due to high inventory and weak demand, but the supply - side reduction limits the downside space [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It rebounded due to the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut. It is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern, and pay attention to OPEC + production, winter demand, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [30][31]. - **LPG**: It is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the changes in supply, demand, and inventory [31]. - **PX - PTA**: The supply of PX is expected to be high in Q4. PTA's supply and demand have improved marginally. Pay attention to maintenance plans and actual dynamics of blending oil [32][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Consider selling call options on rebounds [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract has limited upside. The port pressure may increase in December, and the inland is relatively strong [37][38]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and the demand growth has slowed down. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [40][41]. - **PE**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [43][44]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations. The Asian pure benzene surplus situation may improve, but the domestic fundamentals are still weak [45]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to winter storage policies, and there may be a long - position opportunity for BU2603 [49][50]. - **Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to inventory, demand, and weather factors [52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. High supply is under pressure, but export policies and coal prices provide support [53]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Supply disturbances are increasing. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, glass is affected by cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda's demand is affected by downstream industries [53][54][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - There are rumors that a new mining area in Guinea may produce ore, but its actual shipment needs further confirmation. With high absolute inventory, the pattern of sufficient bauxite supply is difficult to change, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [3] - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are deepening, showing significant structural differentiation. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern, and aluminum cables are a bright spot, while most sectors face downward pressure [3] - On November 24, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from last Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro situation has mixed sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Semi - finished Products**: The price of coke and semi - finished products is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The price center has shifted downward, and it is running weakly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][3]. - **Aluminum Ingot**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The industry has entered the traditional off - season, with overall weak demand. The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke and Semi - finished Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance from mid - January are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Coke and semi - finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with pessimistic sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingot - **Bauxite Supply**: During the environmental inspection period, the supply of domestic bauxite in the north remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment of imported bauxite has increased, providing support for future arrivals [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry have deepened. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern with a 59.8% operating rate; the aluminum cable has a slight increase in the operating rate to 62.4% due to grid orders. However, most sectors are under downward pressure, with the operating rates of aluminum sheet, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil showing different trends [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is influenced by a mix of long and short sentiments. There are still expectations of a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends. The price is expected to run at a high level, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4].