Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments due to recent market dynamics and economic indicators [2] - On January 9, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1000.85 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.63 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 1006.48 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous value was revised up by 1,000 to 200,000, indicating a stable labor market [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the adjustment in commodity index weights has triggered short-term selling, while rising inflation expectations and favorable employment data support gold prices [2] - International gold prices increased by 0.5% to 4477.39 USD per ounce, with a session low of 4407.29 USD per ounce, and global gold ETF inflows for 2025 are expected to reach a historical high [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with recommendations to hold long positions above 4300 USD, while monitoring the gold-silver ratio and U.S. non-farm payroll data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and it is advisable to take a short - term approach for oil investments. The economic resilience indicated by jobless claims data increases negative factors for silver, which may follow gold in high - level oscillations [2]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues, with futures prices oscillating in a range. For palm oil, there is a game between "Indonesian policy positive expectations" and "Malaysian high - inventory reality", and short - term participation is recommended [4]. - For soybean meal, the supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices, and short - term participation is advised. The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of stable supply and demand [5][6]. - The short - term upward trend of steel prices may be blocked. For coking coal, the risk of this round of price increase is high, and cautious operation is recommended. PTA is better to be observed in the short term [7][8]. - Natural rubber should be treated with wide - range oscillations, and short - term short positions at high levels are advisable. Aluminum prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation stage in the short term [9][10]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [11][12]. - Gold has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Four countries (Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman) plan to cut daily production by 829,000 barrels by June 2026 to compensate for over - production from January to April last year. Geopolitical concerns in Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran led to a sharp overnight rebound in oil prices [2]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historically low level. The market generally expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January, increasing negative factors for silver [2]. Live Pigs - On January 8, the national average pork price was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous day. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and futures prices oscillate in a range [4]. Palm Oil - In Indonesia, the consumption of palm - based biodiesel last year was 14.2 million liters, up 7.6% year - on - year. Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax. There is a game between positive policy expectations and high - inventory reality [4]. Soybean Meal - On January 8, domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends. The supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Raw material prices are rising, supply is growing steadily, and demand is mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts [6]. Rebar - As of January 8, rebar production increased by 1.5%, factory inventory by 6.14%, social inventory by 2.66%, and apparent demand decreased by 12.71% compared to the previous week. The short - term upward trend may be blocked [7]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 5.7% month - on - month. The risk of this round of price increase is high, and the inventory pressure remains high [8]. PTA - PTA social inventory decreased, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter is increasing. It is better to observe in the short term [8]. Natural Rubber - Southeast Asian raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, domestic production areas are in the off - season, and the demand side is in a state of flexible production control. It should be treated with wide - range oscillations [9]. Aluminum - A new bauxite project in Cameroon is expected to start production in 2026. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, downstream demand is slightly decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash rose slightly, production increased by 8.11% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 11.67% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Money market interest rates mostly rose. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [12]. Gold - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years. It has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak [13]. Plastic - Supply pressure has been slightly relieved, production enterprise inventory has decreased, and demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].

Group 1 - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1001.82 CNY per gram, up 0.21% [1] - International gold price is reported at 4479.7 USD per ounce, up 0.43% [2] Group 2 - U.S. weak employment data strengthens market expectations for at least two rate cuts in 2026, benefiting gold as a non-yielding asset; the upcoming non-farm payroll report on January 9 is a key event [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, with U.S. military actions in Venezuela and threats against Colombia driving safe-haven investments into gold; central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continue to increase gold reserves, with a 30,000-ounce increase to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [4] Group 3 - Institutions are generally bullish on gold prices in the long term, with HSBC predicting prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce in the first half of the year, while Morgan Stanley expects a rise to 4800 USD per ounce in Q4; however, short-term pressures from Bloomberg commodity index adjustments may lead to passive selling [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bullish. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price [1]. - Copper: In the short - term, it will be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bearish. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations will drive up the copper price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai gold futures fluctuated downward, breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark during the day, and showed strong performance at night, returning to the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Environment**: After the Venezuela incident, the panic in the market did not spread. The US stock Dow Jones index hit a new high. After the holiday, the market risk appetite and liquidity remained high. The short - term macro - environment cooled down, and the assets with good previous gains generally declined, increasing the safe - haven demand for gold and providing support for the gold price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday during the day, due to the cooling of the macro - environment, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, and this weakness continued at night. The trading volume of positions changed little. Last night, LME copper broke through the $13,000 mark, and the main contract price of Shanghai copper once broke through the 102,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Price Drivers**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase have been macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. Recently, the short - term sharp increase in the copper price has led to an increase in the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions, causing the futures price to fall from its high [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The near - month futures market generally follows the spot price trend, with the market opening high and closing low today, while the far - month market remains volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The subsequent index center is expected to gradually rise [6]. - The shipping demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity has changed slightly. The geopolitical situation may have an impact on fuel costs and the trade pattern, but currently, the impact on shipping routes is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, EC2602 closed at 1,779.1 points, a - 5% decline from the previous day's closing price. On December 26, the SCFI European line quote was $1,690/TEU, a + 10.24% increase month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Monday was 1,795.83 points, a + 3% increase month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK has adjusted its prices. Other shipping companies have also set different price ranges for January. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports from January to March 2026 is 306,100/271,900/283,300 TEU per week on average, with slight changes at the beginning of the week. The FAL8 route of the OA Alliance will add an 8,500 - TEU ship at the end of January and an empty voyage in February [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Consider closing all long positions in EC2602 at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm of the freight rate reaching the peak [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 2. Industry News - China is considering tightening the export license review of rare earths to Japan, which may have a significant impact on the Japanese economy [10]. - Trump announced that the interim authorities in Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned crude oil to the United States [10]. - Iran stated that it is ready to respond decisively to any aggression or hostile behavior [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].

Group 1 - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has led to increased uncertainty in Venezuela, a country rich in oil reserves, resulting in a rise in international oil prices [2] - As of January 5, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 1.07%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan/ton, but the adjustment was suspended due to insufficient price change [2][3] - The current oil price adjustment mechanism in China has resulted in no changes to gasoline and diesel prices as the adjustment amount was less than 50 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - Supply-demand imbalance is a key factor influencing the current international oil price trend, with OPEC+ likely to pause production increases while non-OPEC+ production remains high [4] - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some expecting an increase due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, while others predict a downward trend due to high US oil inventories [4][5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Venezuela conflict, are expected to create short-term upward pressure on oil prices, but long-term recovery of Venezuelan oil production could lead to increased global supply [5][6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have a risk of spilling over, and methanol continues to operate strongly. The methanol market is facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of the spill - over of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset [1][3] - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton [3] - The US attacked Venezuela over the weekend, escalating the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the direct impact on methanol is relatively limited, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the situation in the Middle East [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. According to market news, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Fundamental Conditions - The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton. The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend escalated the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the Middle East situation [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] Operation Suggestions - Hold long positions and do not chase high prices. Be vigilant about the emotional impact of unexpected events [4]

13连阳的市场我们该如何操作呢？和讯投顾孔晓云分析称，今天大盘量能再一次出现了大幅放大，收盘 更是站在最高点两个字，追高当然是不要的，因为我们早已做好埋伏。 今天的盘面已经超越昨天的趋势了，板块之间轮动上涨，资金方面雨露均沾，盘面良好发展，但一直这 样下去也不可能的，所以从指数层面会有阴线出现，但阴线实体不会很大，因为资金还在进行下一步的 抢筹，主线方向出现回落，考虑做加法即可。板块方面，人脑工程、商业航天、智能驾驶、机器人等今 天继续走强，市场最近一直在围绕着老马的言论进行炒作，从市场情绪面看，短期没有结束的迹象可以 继续格局，记住只低吸不追高，但短期冲高后期还是会回调，回落也是下一个阶段的机会。 有色金属板块今天强势崛起，消息面上有地缘冲突，再起引发了晚间黄金白银等有色期货大涨。总的原 则就是证券扛下棋情绪回归，盘面健康，继续躺平不动。 ...