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双降落地,曲线走陡
HTSC· 2025-05-07 13:55
证券研究报告 固收视角 双降落地,曲线走陡 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 其次对市场而言,择机或适时降准降息早有预告,本次降准时间和力度基本符合预期。在我们 4 月 18 日开展的问卷调 查中,89%的投资者认为未来三个月会降准。我们也认为降准时机基本成熟。一是当前银行超储率水位不高,中长期 流动性缺口有待补充;二是降准时间间隔已接近历史平均规律,上一次降准是 2024 年 9 月,根据历史规律降准间隔平 均为 4-8 月;三是政府债进入发行高峰,特别国债启动发行,降准有助于稳定资金面。 降息时间略早于预判,但并不意外,幅度为 10BP,低于去年 ...
开源证券:物管行业转型有望改善盈利能力 “资产荒”下REITs性价比持续提升
智通财经网· 2025-05-07 11:42
REITs方面,债券市场利率中枢下行压力下,"资产荒"逻辑有望继续演绎,REITs作为高分红、中低风险 的资产,在政策力度加强以及社保金和养老金入市预期下,有望持续提升配置性价比,当前时间节点重 点板块需围绕"稳增长"与"新业态"两条主线,持续关注扩容+分化逻辑,注意板块周期及利率敏感资产 创造的波段机会。 智通财经APP获悉,开源证券发布研报称,物管行业在管规模增速放缓,第三方项目竞争解局,头部物 企陆续退出低质项目和业务后,物企整体在管项目质量提升。该行认为,物管行业在转型过程中,逐渐 回归品质,质价相符、服务品质突出、能够提供优质增值服务的企业或将得到更好的支持与发展,未来 盈利能力有望进一步改善。 根据中指研究院数据,截至2024年末,中国物管行业在管规模达314.1亿平,同比增长4%,2020-2024年 复合增长率达4.9%,百强物企在管面积增速连续三年回落,合管比降至1.27。受物业费下调、亏损项目 治理等影响,物企2024年普遍退出存在交付风险和低质低效的项目,聚焦高能级城市的优质产业和客 户,同时百强物企第三方在管面积占比和非住业态占比均有所提升。 2021年以来,百强物企收入增速和在管面积 ...
央行“双降”释放流动性,银行板块盘中活跃,国企红利ETF(159515)涨近1%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 05:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and growth of the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index and its related ETF, indicating a positive trend in the market for state-owned enterprises [1][2] - As of May 7, 2025, the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index (000824) increased by 0.68%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Everbright Bank (up 2.39%) and Qingdao Port (up 2.31%) [1] - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) saw a growth of 0.85%, with the latest price reported at 1.07 yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF experienced a significant increase in scale, growing by 3.2029 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share count also rose by 3.3 million shares in the same period, indicating robust demand [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, which is expected to positively impact the banking sector [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index as of April 30, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings and Jizhong Energy, collectively accounting for 15.18% of the index [3] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of high dividend yield securities from state-owned enterprises, focusing on companies with stable dividends and significant liquidity [2]
高炉吨钢利润稳中向好,低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有望进一步修复钢铁
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-05 10:23
高炉吨钢利润稳中向好,低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有望进一步修复 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 本期内容提要: 上周市场表现:上周钢铁板块下跌 0.52%,表现劣于大盘;其中,特 钢板块下跌 2.29%,长材板块上涨 0.77%,板材板块上涨 0.42%;铁 矿石板块下跌 1.00%,钢铁耗材板块下跌 3.90%,贸易流通板块上涨 0.88% ➢ 。 铁水产量环比增加。截至 5 月 2 日,样本钢企高炉产能利用率 92. 0%,周环比增加 0.40 百分点。截至 5 月 2 日,样本钢企电炉产能利 用率 55.5%,周环比下降 1.20 百分点。截至 5 月 2 日,五大钢材品种 产量 773.4 万吨,周环比增加 6.91 万吨,周环比增加 0.90%。截至 5 月 2 日,日均铁水产量为 245.42 万吨,周环比增加 1.07 万吨,同比 增加 16.70 ➢ 万吨。 五大材消费量环比下降。截至 5 月 2 日,五大钢材品种消费量 970.9 万吨,周环比增加 44.61 万吨,周环比增加 4.82%。截至 5 月 2 ...
高炉吨钢利润稳中向好,低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有望进一步修复
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-05 09:03
高炉吨钢利润稳中向好,低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有望进一步修复 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500518070001 联系电话:010-83326712 邮 箱:zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500524100002 邮 箱:gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱:liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编:100031 [高炉吨钢利润稳中向好,低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有 Table_Title] 望进一步修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 ...
4月PMI点评:外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现
Orient Securities· 2025-05-03 05:07
| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件:4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI,其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%,较上月下降 1.5 个百分点;非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%,保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照:BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...
一季度黑龙江省规上工业增加值增速6.1%
Group 1 - The overall industrial economy in the province is showing a rapid recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - In March, the output value of key emerging industries grew by 10.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - Industrial fixed asset investment growth reached 14.4%, 2.4 percentage points higher than the national average, with manufacturing investment growth at 17.5%, exceeding the national level by 8.4 percentage points [1] - Industrial technological transformation investment growth was notably high at 57.9%, ranking fifth in the country, while manufacturing technological transformation investment growth reached 61.9% [1] - The mining industry added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average, while the manufacturing industry growth was 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply industry growth was 5.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Among the top ten industries, the equipment industry led with an 18.9% growth rate, 8 percentage points higher than the national average, while the energy industry grew by 5.9% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a significant increase in added value growth of 10.1%, while the food industry grew by 5.2%, the petrochemical industry by 2.2%, the metallurgy industry by 5.4%, and the building materials industry by a remarkable 31.5% [2] - The provincial government aims to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in the industrial economy [2]
综合施策稳增长 全力攻坚补缺口 宁夏做强优势特色产业
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 22:16
Group 1 - Ningxia's GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter, with 12 out of 16 major economic indicators outperforming the national average [1] - The region implemented over 80 policy documents and more than 1300 specific measures to stabilize economic growth and promote industrial upgrades [1] - Industrial added value in Ningxia increased by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the GDP growth [1] Group 2 - Ningxia is focusing on digital economy as a key driver for high-quality economic development, aiming to enhance employment and income [2] - The regional government is committed to achieving the "double over half" goal for the first half of the year, emphasizing practical and detailed implementation of economic policies [2]
把工业经济平稳增长摆在更重要位置
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-01 22:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for effective policy implementation to support industries severely impacted by tariffs, while also highlighting the recovery of industrial profits in China during the first quarter of the year [1][5]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Recovery - In the first quarter, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from a 3.3% decline in the previous year [1][2]. - The profit growth rate in March reached 2.6%, indicating a turnaround from the downward trend observed since the third quarter of the previous year [1][2]. - The added value of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, with March showing a growth rate of 7.7%, the highest since July 2021 [2]. Group 2: Economic Resilience and Policy Impact - The recovery in industrial profits reflects the resilience of China's industrial economy, supported by ongoing stock and incremental policies, including large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [2][3]. - In the first quarter, 38 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth in added value, with over 90% of sectors showing positive growth [2]. - All 31 provinces reported positive growth in large-scale industrial added value, with several major industrial provinces like Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shandong exceeding 8% growth [2]. Group 3: New Productive Forces and Industry Support - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is driving the development of new productive forces, supporting improvements in industrial profits [3]. - Profits in the equipment manufacturing sector grew by 6.4%, while high-tech manufacturing saw a 3.5% increase, indicating strong support for industrial recovery [3]. - Specific sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and smart consumer devices experienced substantial profit growth, with wearable smart devices seeing an increase of 78.8% [3]. Group 4: External Challenges and Economic Pressures - The "export rush" was a significant factor in the unexpected growth of industrial production in the first quarter, but external pressures from U.S. tariffs are expected to impact China's exports starting in April [4]. - The manufacturing new export orders index fell to 44.7% in April, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating tightening foreign demand [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative growth for 30 consecutive months, affecting corporate revenue and profitability [4]. Group 5: Strategic Focus on Industrial Growth - The article stresses that the stability of the macroeconomic environment relies heavily on industrial development, which is fundamentally driven by corporate performance [5]. - Improving corporate profitability is crucial for encouraging production expansion and innovation investment, which in turn affects employment and income levels [5]. - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, all of which are closely linked to the development of business entities [5].
4月PMI数据点评:外需对经济的冲击开始显现
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-30 10:31
证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250430 外需对经济的冲击开始显现——4 月 PMI 数 据点评 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书:S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《结汇和买债:牵引人民币汇率的"双 主线"》 2025-04-30 《25Q1 固收+基金转债持仓十大亮 点》 2025-04-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49%,比上月下降 1.5 个百分点;服务业 PMI 为 50.1%,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点;建筑业 PMI 为 51.9%,比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。三大行业景气度环比都在下降,其中制造业降幅最大并 且再次降至 50%荣枯线下,表明外需对经济的冲击已经开始显现。 ◼ 靴子落地,外需冲击开始显现。从去年底开始,市场就开始担心关税带 来的经济冲击,从 4 月制造业 PMI 数据来 ...