每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月18日降息25个基点的概率为92%，降息50个基点的概率为8%。 中粮期货总监李颖指出，降息前夕，商品市场震荡分化，预期部分计价后，资金短期更偏好避险，市场等待新主 线。周内贵金属在金价创新高的带动下表现亮眼；新能源板块则受情绪扰动，走势反复，跌幅居前。整体市场相 对平静，正静待降息"靴子"落地。 全球瞩目的货币政策走向，将如何影响国内商品期货走势？ 9月15日下午3点，中粮期货特别推出专题直播：《美联储决议前夕——降息周期下的大宗商品行情》，带你快速 掌握宏观大事件与期货行情的联动逻辑。扫码即可预约，不容错过！ 现在报名，立即解锁交易新技能 报名参赛即可获赠100万元模拟本金，"零成本试错、高收获成长"，大赛设置周赛+月赛双评比机制，多重奖励等 你来拿！ 市场不会等待任何人。在这个A股高位震荡的关键时刻，学会掌握衍生品工具将成为你交易生涯的重要转折点。 现在报名即可先享受"新客专享礼"，还可获得独家"研报洞察礼"，解读节后市场走势。 打开每日经济新闻APP，依次点击私人订制—期货大赛，即可报名参赛，开启你的新交易旅程吧！报名入口请见 下图 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year next week, with a continued easing expected through the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that while the upcoming rate cut cycle may be straightforward this year, complexities may arise in 2026 due to factors such as a shift to loose fiscal policy, dovish tendencies of the new Fed chair, and productivity gains driven by AI [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is currently showing signs of softening, with a composite indicator reflecting unemployment rates, job vacancies, turnover rates, and survey data indicating a potential decline after a brief stabilization in late 2024/early 2025 [2] - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that inflation in labor-intensive sectors will gradually decline due to a weak labor market suppressing wage growth, even as core PCE may temporarily rise to 3.2% due to tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - As policy rates approach 3%, the Fed's decision-making will become more complex, with multiple intersecting factors at play unless there is a sharp deterioration in the labor market or signs of recession [3] - The financial conditions index in the U.S. has eased by 75 basis points since early June, with the stock market being the largest contributor [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will gradually re-accelerate to potential growth levels by 2026, supported by reduced tariff drag and a shift to more expansionary fiscal policy, with AI technology playing a crucial role in determining growth levels [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as the upcoming meeting approaches, with a focus on the performance of the 10-year Treasury yield as a key indicator of monetary policy easing and inflation expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley strategist Phil Camporeale indicates that the current labor market is in a "stagnation" state, which supports the case for lower federal funds rates to provide more "breathing space" for the job market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has slightly increased to 4.058%, which is crucial as it influences mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs; a rise in this yield could counteract the stimulative effects of lower short-term rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's September consumer confidence preliminary survey shows a decline in consumer confidence, while long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.9%, still below April's 4.4% [2] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - Pimco's Chief Investment Officer Mohit Mittal suggests that despite inflation being above the Fed's 2% target, the weakening labor market makes a rate cut a prudent move [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Projections - CME FedWatch tool shows traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by year-end [3] - Mittal forecasts that U.S. inflation will decline to about 3% by the end of 2025 and further to 2.5% by the end of 2026, indicating confidence in the Fed's ability to manage inflation [3] - Camporeale predicts a 1% real GDP growth in 2025 and approximately 2% in 2026, suggesting that the Fed may continue to cut rates in a stable economic environment [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock market performance was mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.44% to reach a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index fell slightly by 0.05% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.59% [4] - All three major indices recorded weekly gains, with the S&P 500 Index just shy of its historical high set on Thursday [4]

Group 1 - The market is reacting to a significant increase in initial jobless claims, leading to a drop in yields despite CPI being close to expectations [2][4] - There is a focus on inflation data, with two-year and ten-year yields reaching higher highs, indicating a potential stagflation scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points instead of 50, with market participants reassessing the aggressiveness of the easing cycle if inflation remains persistent [4][5] Group 2 - The reversal in yields suggests a double bottom formation, with a rejection of the 4% yield level, which is the lowest close of the year [4][5] - High-yield junk bonds are attracting investors as rate cuts are anticipated, with high yield ETFs closing at their highest level in approximately three and a half years [5]

Core Views - A wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, with central banks in multiple countries, including Peru and Turkey, announcing significant reductions in their benchmark rates, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies [1][6][10]. Group 1: Peru's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Peru announced a 25 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate, lowering it from 4.50% to 4.25%, aligning with the expectations of 8 out of 15 economists surveyed [3]. - The decision was influenced by a decrease in inflation pressure, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 1.7% in July to 1.1% in August, although this decline is considered temporary [3][4]. - The Central Bank expects the year-end inflation rate to approach the midpoint of its target range, with core inflation projected to remain around 2% [4]. Group 2: Turkey's Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 200 basis point cut [6][7]. - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, domestic demand remains weak, and inflationary pressures persist due to rising food prices and service costs [6][8]. - The Central Bank aims to stabilize inflation, with a medium-term target of reducing it to 5%, following a peak of 85.5% in October 2022 [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the U.S. August CPI report, market consensus indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings [10][11]. - The August CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year [10][11]. - Analysts from Citigroup view the inflation report as encouraging for the Fed, suggesting that inflation risks are diminishing and the focus is shifting towards supporting economic growth [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses a wave of interest rate cuts initiated by various central banks, including the Federal Reserve, as they respond to recent economic data indicating easing inflation pressures [1][10] - The Central Bank of Peru announced a 25 basis point cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3][4] - Turkey's Central Bank made a more aggressive move, cutting its benchmark rate by 250 basis points from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding market predictions [7][8] Group 2 - The Central Bank of Peru cited a decrease in inflation pressure as the primary reason for its rate cut, with overall inflation dropping from 1.7% in July to 1.1% in August [4][5] - Despite the positive indicators, the Central Bank of Peru warned of uncertainties in global economic growth due to international trade restrictions [5] - Turkey's Central Bank noted that while GDP growth exceeded expectations, domestic demand remains weak, and inflationary pressures persist from food prices and services [7][8] Group 3 - Following the release of the U.S. CPI report for August, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, market consensus shifted towards expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve [11][12] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that the Federal Reserve may implement a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the next five FOMC meetings, potentially lowering the policy rate below 3% [13][14] - The article highlights that the inflation data suggests limited pass-through effects from tariffs to consumer prices, indicating a more stable inflation outlook [14]

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行将于北京时间周四20:15公布最新利率决议。根据一项对59位经济学家的 调查，欧洲央行将维持存款机制利率为2%不变，其判断是欧元区经济能够承受美国总统特朗普所施加 的关税以及法国再度爆发的政治动荡。此外，市场认为，欧洲央行本轮降息周期已经结束，而新的季度 预测将缓解市场对通胀长期低于2%的担忧。 鉴于当前欧元区通胀被认为已接近欧洲央行目标水平，而欧元区经济在美国提供贸易关税的初期阶段表 现出了韧性，多数欧洲央行官员对当前的货币政策立场感到满意。 不过，欧洲央行官员们也必须评估美联储即将作出的政策转向。美联储预计将在下周降息，如果届时暗 示未来将有更多降息，则可能重新点燃欧元的上涨势头。 （原标题：欧洲央行今夜料按兵不动 本轮降息周期或已结束） 此外，法国政府于周一垮台。但除非市场崩盘，否则欧洲央行行长拉加德不太可能在利率决议后的新闻 发布会上过多提及法国局势。 利率 在存款机制利率已从4%下调至2%后，欧洲央行执行委员会成员施纳贝尔(Isabel Schnabel)强烈反对再次 降息。她表示，由于贸易关税和财政支出增加等因素，未来几年欧元区通胀可能会超过预期。 与之形成对比的是，斯 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian economy faced a GDP decline of 1.6% in the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges ahead [1] - The economic contraction was primarily driven by severe net trade impacts, although the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is low [1] - Revised GDP data for June and preliminary estimates for July suggest insufficient economic growth momentum, indicating that third-quarter performance may fall short of the Bank of Canada's previous expectations [1] Group 2 - Capital Economics posits that the Bank of Canada may soon resume interest rate cuts in response to weakened economic growth and heightened downside risks [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is testing the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3801, with a potential breakthrough improving short-term price momentum [1] - If the USD/CAD surpasses the 1.3801 level, it may target the four-month high of 1.3924 established on August 22, with further resistance at the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that tax system adjustments have impacted short-term performance but do not alter the long-term growth outlook for the company [5][7] - The shipping market is experiencing a recovery in demand, although short-term performance is affected by tax changes and international conflicts [7] - The company is expected to benefit from environmental policies and a potential interest rate cut in the U.S., which may stimulate financing willingness among shipowners [7] Financial Summary - The company achieved revenue of HKD 20.18 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [7] - Operating profit for the same period was HKD 11.67 billion, up 5.61% year-on-year [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 11.06 billion, a decrease of 16.7% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in tax calculation and reduced rental income from joint ventures [7] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 44.77 billion, HKD 48.96 billion, and HKD 54.39 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of HKD 21.44 billion, HKD 24.16 billion, and HKD 27.20 billion [7][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 5.58, 4.94, and 4.39, respectively, indicating favorable valuation metrics [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guoyin Financial Leasing (01606) reported a mixed performance in its 2025 interim results, with total revenue declining slightly while net profit showed significant growth due to non-recurring income [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 12.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54% [1] - Total income and other revenues amounted to about 14.664 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.69% [1] - Net profit reached approximately 2.401 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.63% [1] - Earnings per share were reported at 0.19 yuan [1] Business Segments - The company’s business structure is continuously optimizing, with rapid growth in green energy and high-end equipment leasing, as well as inclusive finance vehicle leasing [1] - The aircraft leasing business maintained operational resilience, while the shipping leasing business experienced a slight decline due to short-term fluctuations in shipping indices [1] Asset Quality and Market Conditions - Overall, the company’s asset quality remains stable, providing a safety margin for business transformation [1] - The company is positioned for a value reassessment opportunity due to the resonance of liabilities on both ends, with a high safety margin in current investments [1] - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could drive down operational costs for the company [1] Cost Management - The company has innovated its financing model, resulting in a significant reduction of interest expenses by 31.4% in the first half of the year [1] - The optimization of costs is expected to become more pronounced during the interest rate cut cycle [1]