证券研究报告 宏观 6 月非农再超预期，7 月降息概率回落 2025 年 7 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 概览：6 月美国新增非农就业 14.7 万人，高于彭博一致预期的 11 万人，此 前 2 个月累计小幅上修 1.6 万人，虽然 Headline 数据再超预期，但结构偏 弱：私人部门就业明显降温；小时工资增速环比降温至 0.2%，不及预期的 0.3%；人均工作时长进一步下行。失业率虽然超预期下行 0.1pp 至 4.1%， 但可能主要是由于 6 月新增家庭就业低位反弹（由前月的-69.6 万升至 9.3 万），叠加劳动参与率再度回落；后者或是驱逐移民所致。6 月非农超预期， 但私人部门就业明显放缓，显示就业市场仍延续逐步降温态势。由于数据超 预期，联储降息预期回撤，美债收益率上行：市场定价 2025 年累计降息预 期下行 10bp 至 51bp，2 年期、10 年期美债收益率分别上行 12bp、8bp 至 3.88%、4.34%，美元指数走高，美股三大股指上涨。 6 月新增非农 Headline 数据超预期，但持续性有待观察。结构上，6 月政 府就业特别是州/地方政府新增就业明显加速，贡献新增就业的 ...

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1、基本面： 美国非农就业数据超预期，降息预期降温，金价回落；美国三大股指 全线上涨，欧洲三大股指全线收涨；美元指数涨0.35%报97.12，离岸人民币对美元 小幅贬值报7.1701；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨6.30个基点报 4.342%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.71%报3336.00美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货781.28，现货777，基差-4.28，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18456千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧元区5月PP ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250704 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月美国非农大超预期，"大而美"法案过关待签署 海外方面，美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人，连续四月超预期，4-5 月合计上修 1.6 万 人；失业率意外降至 4.1%，平均时薪环比放缓至 0.2%，市场基本消化 7 月不降息，风险偏 好再度打开，美股齐涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，金价下跌。然而从结构上看仍存隐忧： 6 月非农新增岗位中近半数来自政府部门，私营部门就业增长依旧疲弱，与此前爆冷的 ADP 就业数据（私营部门）相呼应。美国"大美丽"法案仍在众议院险些过关，特朗普预计将于 周六清晨正式签署。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.33 万亿，风格上创业板、深证成指表 现占优，行业上电子、生物科技领涨，美越关税协议落地、对华科技制裁放松，均有助于修 复市场风险偏好。在内需乏力、物价依旧偏低迷的背景下，供给侧优化正逐步落地并加快推 进，工信部：依法整治光伏 ...

南华贵金属日报: 非农超预期 贵金属分化 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月4日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金跌银涨。周边资产看，美股、美债收益率、美指皆收涨，比特币、原油、南华有色金属 震荡或微跌。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3336美元/盎司，-0.71%；美白银2509合约收报于37.04美元/ 盎司，+0.85%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.28元/克，+0.47%；SHFE白银2508合约收8944元/千 克，+1.83%。数据方面，周四晚间公布的美国6非农就业报告强于预期，新增就业人数录得14.7万人，预期 11万，前值上修0.5万至14.4万人；失业率录得4.1%，数据意外下降，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。数据后交易员 不再押注美联储7月降息，9月降息概率下降。消息面，"大漂亮"法案在美国众议院以四票优势涉险过关， 特朗普将于当地时间7月4日17时签署"大漂亮"法案。 本次"大漂亮"法案将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限 提高5万亿美元，国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，这可能会让政府预算赤字未来十年内增加3.4 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in global financial markets have led to a significant drop in international gold prices, with spot gold falling below $3250 per ounce, marking a new low in nearly a month [1] - The decline in international gold prices has not resulted in a uniform collapse in the domestic market, instead revealing a complex situation of price differentiation [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Pricing Trends - In the domestic market, well-known jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook maintain high gold prices, with prices reaching 989 CNY per gram for both brands [2] - Other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang show slight price variations, with Chow Sang Sang at 985 CNY per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 987 CNY per gram [2] - The overall pricing for gold jewelry remains elevated, with other brands also fluctuating between 984 CNY and 989 CNY per gram [2] Group 3: Bank and Exchange Price Movements - Major banks exhibit price discrepancies for gold bars, with prices ranging from 772 CNY to 778.40 CNY per gram across different banks [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a decline in AuT D prices to 759.88 CNY per gram, reflecting a drop of 0.80% from the previous day [3] - Silver T D prices also experienced a decline, dropping by 112 CNY per kilogram, indicating a broader market reaction to international gold price movements [3] Group 4: Collectibles and Recovery Market - The 2025 Panda gold coin prices demonstrate the independence of the collectibles market, with prices reaching as high as 480,000 CNY, showing resilience against short-term fluctuations in international gold prices [4] - The gold recovery market remains stable, with gold recovery prices ranging between 750 CNY and 753 CNY per gram, indicating consistent demand for recycled gold [4] Group 5: Analysis of International Gold Price Decline - The recent drop in international gold prices is attributed to uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and technical sell-offs triggered by prices falling below the 50-day moving average [6] - Market volatility has been exacerbated by large institutional investors engaging in "wash trading" or "profit-taking" at high price levels [6] - Future gold price trends will be influenced by the policy dynamics between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as well as changes in the global economic landscape [6]

铜 有色金属小组 有色金属日报 2025-7-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国非农数据超预期，隔夜美股继续走强，美元指数回升，铜价震荡下滑，昨日伦铜收跌 0.58%至 9951 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 80540 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 1075 至 94325 吨，注册仓 单量维持低位，注销仓单比例下滑至 33.8%，Cash/3M 升水 87.5 美元/吨。国 ...

报 告 正 文 新增非农上升，但由政府支撑。 6 月新增非农就业人数略升至 14.7 万人。分行业来看，本月政府贡献了一半的新增就业，而私营部门新增就业从 5 月的 13.7 万人大幅放缓至 7.4 万人。政府方面，新增就业源于州和地方的教育岗位，而联邦政府继续裁员。私营部门方面，本月服务业新增就业仅录得 6.8 万 人，较上月大幅减少 7.3 万人，与 6 月新增 ADP 就业转负相互映证。 私营部门就业走弱。 具体行业来看， 6 月新增就业约一半来自政府部门，并且主要为州和地方的教育岗位，联邦政府继续裁员。服务业就业大幅降温， 其中教育保健、休闲酒店和金融活动新增就业下降最多，较上月分别下降 3.2 万人、 9000 人和 7000 人。此外，制造业就业仍受关税政策压制，继续下 降 7000 人。 失业率下降，但更多人退出劳动力市场 。 6 月失业率小幅下降 0.1 个百分点至 4.1% ，不过， 6 月劳动参与率录得 62.3% ，较上月下降 0.1 个百 分点，永久退出劳动力市场的人数增加。从结构来看，本月失业人数虽减少 22.2 万人，但就业人数仅增加 9.3 万人，劳动力市场趋弱。此外， 25- ...

Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘沪金低开震荡运行。美国非农就业高于市场 ...