交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 今日焦点 | 爱旭股份 | | 600732 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 定增获批缓解资金压力，股价大涨后估值吸引 | | 评级: 中性↓ | | 力有限，下调至中性 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 14.63 | 目标价: 人民币 16.50↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.8% | | 文昊, CPA | bob.wen@bocomgroup.com | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24,148.07 | | 50 天平均线 | 23,825.43 | | 200 天平均线 | 22,414.89 | | 14 天强弱指数 | 55.31 | | 沽空 (百万港元) | 26,626 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 公司定增 7 月 4 日获得上交所审核通过。公司 1Q25 资产负债 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to close at 3497.48 points, with a daily high of 3499.89 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 10588.39 points, reaching a peak of 10593.84 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.39%, closing at 2181.08 points, with a maximum of 2183.06 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 1.08%, with the highest return from the China Asset Management ChiNext 50 ETF at 2.75% [2] - The Southern CSI New Energy ETF led the industry index ETFs with a return of 3.25% [2] - The top-performing thematic ETF was the China Tai CSCI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, achieving a return of 5.9% [2] ETF Gains and Losses - The top three ETFs by gain were: - Guotai CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (5.9%) - E Fund CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (5.57%) -浦银安盛中证光伏产业ETF (5.57%) [4][5] - The largest losses were seen in: - Taikang National Public Health and Medical Health ETF (-1.01%) - Fuguo CSI Green Power ETF (-0.63%) - E Fund CSI Green Power ETF (-0.55%) [4][5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by inflow were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (¥778 million) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (¥696 million) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥538 million) [6][7] - The largest outflows were from: - Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF (¥406 million) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (¥351 million) - Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF (¥237 million) [6][7] Financing and Margin Trading - The highest financing buy amounts were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (¥514 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (¥340 million) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥249 million) [8][9] - The largest margin sell amounts were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥25.7 million) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (¥15.7 million) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (¥15.4 million) [8][9] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to reach a turning point, with signals indicating a shift away from internal competition, potentially accelerating supply-side capacity clearance and driving new technology breakthroughs [10] - Focus areas include "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration," with recommendations to monitor leading companies in sectors like polysilicon and photovoltaic glass, as well as advancements in BC batteries and perovskite battery commercial applications [10]

打破光伏内卷困境，展望后内卷时代投资机会 20250708 摘要 光伏行业面临供给侧改革与产能出清挑战，多晶硅料环节尤为突出，价 格逼近龙头企业现金成本线，行业普遍亏损，亟需构建产业命运共同体， 约束低于成本价销售行为。 市场对光伏政策存在分歧，主要集中在政策有效性、最低成本价定义以 及执行方式上，导致对未来走势看法不一，需密切关注政策动向。 未来光伏行业发展前景取决于供给端优化措施的落实，政府层层加码显 示改革决心，但具体实施细节仍存疑虑，需关注政策动向以调整投资策 略。 当前光伏板块投资机会在于政策落地后的布局，关注财务指标健康的企 业如福斯特和阳光电源，以及无银少银技术相关企业和一体化企业。 预计到 2030 年全球光伏装机增速有望维持在 15%至 20%的水平，受 益于全球电力需求增长和供需关系改善，长期发展前景依然乐观。 2025 年光伏抢装导致下游组件价格上涨，但多晶硅价格未反弹，各环 节价格再次探底，多晶硅库存高企，硅片和电池片库存相对健康。 光伏行业市净率处于历史低位，未来随着供需平衡调节及政策限制产能 扩张，有望迎来供需拐点，多晶硅料价格回升将显著修复厂商盈利能力。 Q&A 致市场对于未来走 ...

太辰光 20250708 摘要 太辰光受益于数据中心建设需求旺盛，高密度连接器 MPO/MTP 营收持 续增长，二季度国内租赁厂房投产有望维持高增长，同时海外 AI 发展及 康宁收入增速提升巩固了其发展前景。 柔性光纤重排器件（shuffle）是 CPO 中的重要增量环节，价值量较高。 英伟达、博通、Marvell 等公司的新一代 CPO 交换机将陆续推出，对公 司业绩弹性影响最大，预计 2027 年 CPU 交换机放量将显著提升营收和 利润。 太辰光与康宁深度绑定，是其核心供应商，可直接进入终端客户核心体 系，且因使用康宁美国产光纤，MPO 连接器可免除美国关税，相比国内 其他制造商具有优势。 公司股权结构分散，注重股东回报，过去三年分红比例高，并实施多次 股权激励计划，有效激励核心骨干员工，增强企业凝聚力。 太辰光自 2024 年二季度进入高增长周期，MPO 连接器市场供不应求， 自产核心组件 MPX 芯片提高毛利率，美元结算海外收入产生财务收益， 共同推动毛利率和净利率双增。 Q&A 招商证券对 CPO 赛道的看法是什么？ 我们非常看好 CPO（光电共封装）赛道。随着 AI 技术的进化速度加快，未来 需 ...

创业板指早盘涨幅扩大至1%，上证指数现涨0.37%；托育服务、创新药、短剧互动游戏、水泥建材、可 控核聚变等概念走高，保险、稀土永磁、光刻机（胶）等概念跌幅居前；全市约3000股上涨，2100股下 跌，主力资金净流出超110亿元。 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3998.45 | ↑0.84 | | 2920.9 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3982.4 | ↑0.91 | -16.05 | 384.8 | 32292 | ↑7957 | 63961 | ↑4594 | | IF2508 | 3964.4 | ↑0.90 | -34.05 | 36.1 | 3045 | ↑983 | 7134 | ↑1280 | | IF2509 | 3958.6 | ↑1.00 | -39.85 | 598.8 | 50571 | ↑14802 | 142398 | ↑6572 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reforms initiated by Ye Guofu at Yonghui Superstores, focusing on anti-corruption measures and supply chain improvements to enhance operational efficiency and restore profitability. Group 1: Anti-Corruption Measures - Yonghui Superstores publicly declared a war against corruption and hidden rules, marking a new phase in Ye Guofu's supply chain reform [2][3] - Ye emphasized the need for transparency in pricing and quality during a supplier conference, demanding core suppliers to possess anti-corruption capabilities [4] - The company aims to eliminate corrupt practices that inflate supply chain costs, focusing on three main areas: clean cooperation, supplier onboarding, and financial settlement [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Reforms - Ye's strategy includes direct procurement from core suppliers, eliminating middlemen and unnecessary costs [8] - He identified thousands of suppliers in the fresh produce category, opting to work with 200 core suppliers to ensure quality and establish long-term partnerships [9] - The goal is to create a symbiotic relationship with suppliers, ensuring they feel secure and supported [9] Group 3: Internal Restructuring - Ye's reform efforts have led to significant changes within the Yonghui board, with the "Mingchuang system" gaining substantial influence [10] - A personnel adjustment occurred, resulting in the replacement of several key management positions within the supply chain system [11] - Ye appointed She Xianping as the Chief Purchasing Officer, who has a strong background in supply chain management [12] Group 4: Product Focus and Brand Development - Ye aims to focus on core products, planning to develop 100 billion-yuan-level products over the next three years [14] - The number of private label SKUs has been reduced from over 1,000 to 87, with a target for private label sales to reach 40% of total sales in the next 3-5 years [16] - Yonghui has already launched popular private label products and plans to introduce at least 60 new items this year [15] Group 5: Operational Changes and Financial Outlook - Ye's "433" reform plan targets organizational, operational, and supply chain improvements [17] - The management structure has been simplified from a four-level to a three-level system, enhancing efficiency [18] - Yonghui plans to close 250-350 underperforming stores this year, with a focus on improving overall profitability [19] - The company reported a profit of 74.72 million yuan from 41 remodeled stores in the first quarter, indicating positive momentum [21] - Despite a loss of 1.465 billion yuan in 2024, there are signs of recovery, with a projected increase in store renovations and overall sales [22]

近日某微信好友向老杨吐槽： 我们老板从外面参会回来以后在内部会议上讲"别人家的数字化"做的多好：制造业的智能工厂里，机器 人有条不紊地运作，生产效率呈几何倍数增长；零售行业的电商平台借助大数据精准营销，销售额如火 箭般蹿升；某某央企领导自豪的宣布他们公司实现了AI智能化，员工们在高效协作中谈笑间就将业务 难题轻松化解......老板讲的眉飞色舞，话语里无不体现着各种羡慕与嫉妒，最后老板感叹道："为什么我 们公司的数字化总是做不好，而别人家的数字化却总能成功？" 在大部分企业领导的眼里"别人家"的数字化案例似乎总是更加光鲜亮丽，这也让企业CIO头疼不已，如 何解释让领导充分认知自身数字化建设的不足与问题成为了世纪难题，老杨认为这其实就是认知偏差在 作祟。当我们看"别人家"的数字化成果时，往往陷入几种典型的认知偏差： 第一、幸存者偏差： 媒体和行业峰会倾向于报道成功的数字化案例，而大量失败被选择性忽略。所以我们看到的"别人家"数 字化，实际上是经过层层筛选后的"幸存者"，企业想复制这些"幸存者"的成果几乎不可能； 第二、光环效应： 2.有时候你看到的数据只是一种游戏而已 比如同样的技术，换个说法就是"行业领先" ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3497.48 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 10588.39 points, and the ChiNext Index surged 2.39% to 2181.08 points, marking new highs for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 14,747 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 2,500 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Key sectors that saw gains included semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, steel, building materials, chemicals, brokerages, and automobiles, while insurance, banking, and electricity sectors experienced slight declines [1] Solar Industry Insights - The solar industry is undergoing a "reverse involution" strategy at the national level, focusing on capacity integration in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the industry chain [2] - Current market conditions indicate the industry is at a cyclical bottom, with future policy strength being a critical variable affecting industry trends [2] - Long-term prospects suggest the solar industry will enter a phase of high-quality development, with technological upgrades and market structure optimization becoming core competitive factors [2] Energy Storage Sector Growth - The Australian government plans to invest 2.3 billion AUD in a subsidy program aimed at reducing the installation costs of home storage systems by 30%, targeting the addition of 1 million new home storage installations by 2030 [3] - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are showing increased demand, while Eastern Europe is experiencing significant growth [3] - Major companies in the storage inverter sector are expected to see substantial improvements in Q2 performance, with overall annual growth returning to high levels [3] High-Temperature Beneficiary Sectors - Anticipated extreme heat in 2025 is expected to drive demand in several sectors, including electricity, food and beverage, sun protection, and air conditioning [4] - The electricity sector is likely to benefit from increased demand during high temperatures, while the food and beverage sector may see a boost in consumption of products like beer and tea [4] - Companies involved in air conditioning and cooling components are also expected to gain from supply constraints leading to price increases [4] Zero-Carbon Park Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other departments, has issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks, focusing on energy structure transformation and carbon reduction [7] - The initiative includes financial support through existing funding channels and encourages local governments to provide funding for eligible projects [7] - Policy banks are also encouraged to offer long-term credit support for zero-carbon park projects [7] International Low Altitude Economy Expo - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo will take place from July 23 to July 26, covering an area of 60,000 square meters and featuring over 30 forums [8] - The event is expected to attract more than 50,000 visitors and will showcase nearly 300 exhibitors, including well-known companies in the low-altitude industry [8] Trade Policy Developments - The U.S. government plans to impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports, with additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors being considered [9] - The new tariffs aim to provide time for pharmaceutical companies to relocate to the U.S., although specific implementation dates have not been disclosed [9]

Group 1 - The core news is that Zhiyuan Robotics has acquired 63.62% of the shares of the listed company, Shuangwei New Materials, marking a significant move by a startup established only two years ago [1][2] - This acquisition is notable as it demonstrates a new path for startups to gain control over listed companies, which could inspire other startups to pursue similar strategies [3][12] - The acquisition follows a precedent set by Xingkong Technology, which previously acquired a controlling stake in Zhongqi New Materials, indicating a trend in the industry [4][5] Group 2 - Zhiyuan Robotics has rapidly raised several billion yuan in funding and achieved a valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan within two years, showcasing its strong market position [2] - The acquisition strategy employed by Zhiyuan Robotics and Xingkong Technology opens up new avenues for startups, particularly those with substantial funding and appealing business concepts [12] - The stock price of Zhongqi New Materials surged significantly after Xingkong Technology's investment, illustrating the potential market impact of such acquisitions [9] Group 3 - The article discusses potential pathways for integrating the acquired businesses into the listed companies, including direct asset transfers or establishing subsidiary structures [14][15] - It highlights the complexities of investor exit strategies in these scenarios, suggesting that while startups may gain control, their investors may face challenges in liquidating their holdings [16][20] - The long-term sustainability of this acquisition strategy remains uncertain, raising questions about its implications for the broader market [22][23]