Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that ethylene glycol (MEG) will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The reasons include the weak atmosphere in the commodity market, potential fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, stable overall domestic device operation with occasional short - stops, normal downstream polyester operation, and low but increasing port inventories [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, MEG fluctuated narrowly. The main reason was the weak atmosphere in the commodity market. In the second half of the week, the MEG futures callbacked, and there was good buying at low levels. Two large - scale plants are restarting, and port inventories are increasing but still at a low level. Downstream polyester maintains normal operation, while terminal weaving orders are mediocre [5]. - Next week, cost - side geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. On the supply side, short - stops of domestic plants may occur occasionally, and overall operation is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, there are few planned plant changes, and the determining factor for the turning point of filament load will shift from equity inventory to processing fees. Port inventories are expected to remain low despite the increase [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: This week, the trading volume was 476,600 lots, and the open interest was 148,500 lots (a decrease of 56,800 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 18 was 4346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to August 11. The settlement price on August 18 was 4353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton or 1.16% compared to August 11 [10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4518 yuan/ton on August 12, and the low - end was 4442 yuan/ton on August 14. From August 10 - 16, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. The foreign - market price was 524.7 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.9 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 88.40 yuan/ton, higher than last week's 78.00 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 100 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Plant Operation**: From August 12 - 19, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 62.98%, slightly higher than 62.81% from August 5 - 11. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 64.03%, 61.43%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, there were short - stops and restarts at some plants, such as the short - stop of the Shenghong plant and the restart of the Guanghui plant [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the continuous strengthening of thermal coal prices and the weakening of MEG spot prices, the profit of coal - based MEG production has been further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production are - 1513.88 yuan/ton, 485.39 yuan/ton, and - 112.90 US dollars/ton respectively [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, MEG port inventory was 495,400 tons, an increase of 78,200 tons or 11.77% compared to the previous period. The supply and demand of MEG are expected to remain basically balanced from August to September, and there is room for downward adjustment of imports [37][38]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The market's expectation of a US - Russia peace negotiation has put downward pressure on oil prices. The decline in crude oil and PTA prices has a negative impact on the market sentiment of polyester products [44][49]. - **Downstream Market**: The average weekly load of polyester plants was 86.97%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.81%. The prices of some polyester products have declined slightly. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased, and the supply is still sufficient, while the demand is weak. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market inventory is generally abundant [48][52]. - **Weaving Market**: The shipment of grey fabrics is slow, and the number of inquiries has decreased. The operating rates of some weaving areas have increased slightly. The weekly average polyester sales rate from August 11 - 15 was estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament has decreased slightly [53][55][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the potential deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the suspension of the detour situation, along with Maersk's profit increase, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the market is volatile, and risk control is necessary [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Market Conditions - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [1]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11%; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on August 8: the published price was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6%; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to try long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially stop losses. For the EC2512 contract, a light - short position was recommended and profit - taking is advised [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Market Trading Data - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, down 1.34%, with a trading volume of 5.64 million lots and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3]. Geopolitical Events - Trump's administration has imposed additional tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market has a small price increase to test the market [3]. - The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the next - stage military operation will target two areas still under Hamas control, and about 70% - 75% of Gaza has been controlled by the Israeli army [3][4]. - The Israeli government's security cabinet passed the "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas and other contents [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group 1. Overall Market Situation - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies slightly lowered freight rates. The futures market fluctuated significantly, with prices rising and then falling. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%, and for the US - West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. 2. Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index reached 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - In the US, the July Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. 3. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Situation - Trump's administration continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which affected transit trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a 25% small - scale price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties make market trading difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The short - term futures market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - short positions were recommended and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and stop - losses should be set [5]. 4.2 Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international instability, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light - position attempts [5]. 4.3 Long - term Strategy - For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. 4.4 Market Data - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. 5. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry index increased by 1.78% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 11th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [1][2] - In terms of sub-sectors, energy metals (6.32%), minor metals (6.17%), and new metal materials (1.26%) showed the highest growth, while industrial metals rose by 0.73%, and precious metals experienced a significant decline of 4.31% [1][2] Group 2 - As of August 1, gold prices closed at $3,416.00 per ounce, reflecting a 1.80% increase over the past two weeks, while silver prices fell by 3.44% to $37.11 per ounce [3] - The price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) rose by 7.78% to 194,000 yuan per ton, while LME tin prices decreased by 0.42% to $33,215 per ton [3] - The China rare earth price index increased by 6.69% to 205.11, with light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.97% to 531,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 3 - On July 30, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, which includes items like copper pipes and wires, while excluding raw copper materials [4] - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York dropped by over 18%, indicating a significant market reaction to the tariff news [4] Group 4 - The market sentiment is increasingly fragile due to global geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and various national policies, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations in the short term [5] - Investors are advised to focus on investment opportunities in energy metals, minor metals, and rare earths, as well as potential policy turning points [5]

Market Performance - The defense and military, machinery equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 3.06%, 1.93%, and 1.87% respectively [1] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.66%, while the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 0.39% and 0.46% respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The defense and military sector is driven by the dual momentum of the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, alongside increased demand due to international geopolitical conflicts [2] - The machinery equipment sector benefits from the upcoming implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth stabilization plan and equipment renewal policies, with the manufacturing PMI returning to an expansion zone [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector is supported by a robust supply-demand dynamic, with industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and rare earths benefiting from infrastructure and new energy demands, while strategic metals like germanium and antimony are experiencing price premiums due to export controls [2] Weak Sectors - The retail sector is facing challenges due to the U.S. suspension of small-value tax exemptions, which may increase cash flow pressures for companies and suppress expansion expectations [2] - The oil and petrochemical sector is negatively impacted by OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices [2] - The social services sector is experiencing notable outflows of main funds, compounded by rapid sector rotation, resulting in declines [2] Future Outlook - The A-share market has shown adjustments amid internal and external disturbances, with increased market divergence [3] - The temporary relief from U.S.-China tariff pressures has not fully alleviated risks, as factors like delayed Fed rate cuts and domestic policy not exceeding expectations continue to suppress risk appetite [3] - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies and capacity governance, shifting the policy focus from short-term stimulus to structural optimization, which may strengthen market positioning in the medium to long term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is highly difficult. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe the market [2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take partial profit for the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (which has made a profit of over 300 points), and go short in the EC2512 contract with a light position and pay attention to the subsequent market trend. In the context of international situation turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations, so it is suggested to wait and see or try with a light position. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profit when the contracts reach a high level and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Price Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route on July 25 was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Trump continues to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits the re - export trade. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Currently, the spot market price range is set, with a small price increase to test the market, and the futures market has a small rebound [2]. - On July 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1502.8, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 56,000 lots and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. - The situation in the Red Sea has escalated again, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. Coupled with the recent stabilization of spot freight rates, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3.3 Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade. They will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports, regardless of the location and nationality of the ships [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by 600 billion US dollars, purchase US military equipment, and buy 150 billion US dollars of US energy products [4]. - In June, the preliminary value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - In June, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - In June, the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [1]. 3.4 Trading Rules Adjustment - The daily limit and lower limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].