国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突的涟漪 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：地缘冲突的涟漪 6 月 9-13 日，权益市场高位回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5087.26，较 6 月 13 日下跌 1.07%。 小微盘行情显著承压，是本周市场较为关键的边际变化，这 或是在主动调和积累已久的结构性矛盾。5 月底中证 2000 拥 挤度达到历史高位，这对小微盘行情的支撑逻辑提出了更高 的要求。而地缘冲突的加剧则给了市场主动释放风险的窗 口，中证 2000 加速下跌。 ► 海外线索：以伊冲突延续，美联储继续暂停降息 本周以伊冲突延续，未见缓和迹象。同时，美联储继续暂停 降息，表态略偏鹰，预测偏向"滞胀"，推动美元走强。此 外，美国核心零售韧性仍存，汽车零售大幅放缓。日本方 面，日本央行维持利率不变，明年起削减购债规模。 整体来看，海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变，继关税之后， 中东地缘冲突爆发，美国搅入其中，进一步推升不确定性。 此外，距离 ...

甲醇周报 | 2025-06-22 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率52.07%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量25.70万吨（-20.33），其中华东到港 量24.11万吨（-13.82），华南到港量1.59万吨（-6.51）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率88.65%（+0.67%），其中煤制甲醇开工率83.90%（+3.01%）、天然气甲醇开工率48.36% （-0.52%）、焦炉气甲醇开工率60.28%（+0.17%）；西北开工率92.49%（+2.04%），华北开工率68.71%（-5.33%）， 华中开工率94.27%（-0.09%），华东开工率80.03%（-3.69%），西南开工率87.29%（+5.30%）。 港口需求方面：太仓周均提货量1521吨/天（-864），华东MTO企业周度采购量187300吨（-153800），外采甲醇MTO 企业开工率80.46%（-5.39%）。 内地需求方面：甲醇企业待发订单量274780吨（-27310）。传统下游样本企业原料采购量30300吨（-2500），甲醛开 工率51.23%（-1.02%）、醋酸开工率88.33%（-3.27%）、MTBE外销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to face significant turmoil, with the Federal Reserve likely to intervene only when panic sets in, indicating a potential crisis rather than a minor disturbance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, anticipates a major deleveraging moment in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is being undermined [2][4]. - The ongoing trade war initiated by Trump has led to unusual market behaviors, such as simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating a shift in risk management strategies among investors [4][6]. - The liquidity in the Treasury market remains tight, with the Federal Reserve reducing capital buffers to allow market makers to handle more Treasuries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impact - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have not prompted the expected influx of safe-haven investments into U.S. Treasuries, which traditionally would occur during geopolitical crises [5][8]. - The dollar's initial reaction to the airstrikes was a decline, which is atypical for a safe-haven asset, further indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries [6][8]. - The performance of gold and oil has surged, while Treasuries and the dollar have not attracted safe-haven flows, suggesting a significant shift in market perception [5][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. fiscal management is described as "disastrous," with unrealistic tax and spending policies that could lead to a weaker economic outlook [9]. - A global debt crisis is looming, with long-term bond auctions in developed countries facing issues, driven by unsustainable fiscal policies and declining demand from traditional buyers [10]. - The transition of long-term Treasury purchases from traditional buyers to highly leveraged hedge funds raises the likelihood of a significant crisis in the Treasury market [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on gold prices, which are currently at a crossroads [1] - It emphasizes the need for investors to identify the best entry points in the gold market amidst these influences [1]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-20 EB开工进一步回升，PS库存压力仍存 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费158美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费141美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差45.8美元/吨（-3.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（+5元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差341元/吨（+24元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润255元/吨（+49元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润131元/吨（+11元/吨），PS生产利润-419元/吨（-39元/吨），ABS生产利润45元/吨（-65 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 聚酯负荷坚挺，地缘情绪下价格偏强运行 市场要闻与数据 近期原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，关注 时态进一步发展。 据CCF数据，周四聚酯负荷92%（较上周+1.1%），减产计划下聚酯负荷不降反升，需求端依然坚挺。 市场分析 成本端，近期油价在中东冲突加剧下暴力拉涨，上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，近期关注 地缘变化，如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进一步的上行风险。 如果事态控制在一定程度内，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN255美元/吨(环比变动-3.50美元/吨）。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Iranian methanol plant shutdowns will affect future Chinese arrivals. Port inventories decreased slightly this week, and the absolute inventory level is seasonally low. After the port basis strengthened rapidly, it declined slightly. The market is worried about the loss and maintenance of port MTO plants that purchase methanol externally. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will be realized. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inland plant inventory also decreased this week, and the inland demand resilience exceeded expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (e.g., methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads (e.g., spreads between methanol 01, 05, and 09 futures contracts) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][30][31] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operation rate (including integrated) are presented [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. are shown [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [44][53] 4. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long for hedging [4]. 5. Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 710 yuan/ton (+8). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2005 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 62 yuan/ton (-19); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2030 yuan/ton (+30). Shandong Linyi is 2388 yuan/ton (+33), with a basis of 45 yuan/ton (+7); Henan is 2280 yuan/ton (+35), with a basis of - 63 yuan/ton (+9); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 88 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 367,350 tons (-11,770), and the Northwest factory inventory is 237,000 tons (-100). The inland factory pending orders are 274,780 tons (-27,310), and the Northwest factory pending orders are 149,500 tons (-17,500) [1] Port - Taicang methanol is 2765 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 222 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 304 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import spread is 29 yuan/ton (+32). Changzhou methanol is 2545 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2640 yuan/ton (+70), with a basis of 97 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Longzhong's total port inventory is 586,400 tons (-65,800), Jiangsu port inventory is 293,500 tons (-18,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 143,500 tons (-12,500), and Guangdong port inventory is 99,500 tons (-24,500). The downstream MTO operation rate is 88.54% (-0.02%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is 210 yuan/ton (+58), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is 128 yuan/ton (+33); Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 478 yuan/ton (-33); Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 305 yuan/ton (+5); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is 225 yuan/ton (+65) [2]