Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, with nickel futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 137,770.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of approximately 3.07% [1] - The current nickel market is characterized by a strong upward trend, supported by concerns over tight resource supply and rising boundary costs, despite a seasonal increase in stainless steel inventory due to the Chinese New Year [2] - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the supply-demand dynamics for nickel are improving, with expectations of a 10% to 15% decrease in nickel ore production from Indonesia, which could positively impact the market [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment and overall market conditions are currently influencing nickel prices, with a strong US dollar previously causing declines in dollar-denominated metals [3] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to seasonal weather impacts in major mining regions, which may limit production and shipping volumes [3] - There is a cautious sentiment in the market regarding further purchases at high prices, as many manufacturers have completed their pre-holiday stockpiling [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish rebound [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Oscillating bullish [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause price rebounds, but the supply - surplus pattern remains, and there is still downward pressure on prices [1][7]. - **LPG**: Follows the decline of oil prices at the cost end, with a bearish fundamental outlook [10][13]. - **L**: Standard - product devices are gradually returning, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and it oscillates and adjusts following the cost [19][22]. - **PVC**: Caustic soda continues to fall in price. Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, but high inventory restricts the upside [23][26]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [27][29]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply - demand situation is loose. Cautiously chase up [30][32]. - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [33][37]. - **Urea**: Cost - supported supply and demand are both strong, with a short - term rebound. Cautiously chase up [38][41]. - **LNG**: The cold wave has subsided, and US natural gas prices are weakening [42][46]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the decline of oil prices at the cost end due to repeated geopolitical situations in the Middle East [47][50]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it oscillates at a low level [51][54]. - **Soda ash**: The start - up rate has declined slightly, and it oscillates at a low level [55][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 1.72%, Brent rose 1.55%, and domestic SC fell 4.84% [5][6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in February, and the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. US oil production is gradually rising, and Brazilian oil production has reached a record high. Indian oil imports have increased. US crude and refined product inventories have changed [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. SC should focus on the range of [450 - 465] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the PG main contract closed at 4188 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline [12]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices rebound due to geopolitical disturbances, and in the long - term, they are under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, pay attention to the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Standard - product devices are gradually returning, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended that the industry pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and it oscillates following the cost. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the shutdown ratio is about 22%. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Caustic soda continues to fall in price. Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, but high inventory restricts the upside. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [5000 - 5200] [26]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved. The supply - side devices are overhauled as planned, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the fundamentals are expected to improve [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks of the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range of [5080 - 5180] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation situation has been repaired. The domestic supply load has increased, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. There is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 should focus on the range of [3720 - 3800] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate is high, and overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand has weakened significantly, and the cost support is weak and stable. There is short - term bullishness due to geopolitical conflicts and cold weather [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 should focus on the range of [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract price and other relevant data have changed [38]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has continued to rise, and the demand is short - term strong. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. There is a price ceiling and floor under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policies [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 should focus on the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. LNG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the NG main contract closed at 3.263 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 26.11% decline [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - wave impact has gradually subsided, and gas prices are falling. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the winter season [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [3.245 - 3.665] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 3, the BU main contract closed at 3309 yuan/ton, a 0.30% decline [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil has increased, and the discount for domestic sales has decreased, which is beneficial to the raw - material end. However, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the weak basis, there is a short - term callback risk [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased at a high level. The disk oscillates at a low level. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [1080 - 1120]. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further realized [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price and other relevant data have changed [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the start - up rate has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda is insufficient. The supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing up before the maintenance is further intensified [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [1180 - 1230] [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8695 - 8935 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease. The demand side shows short - term reduction in silicon wafer production, with medium - term recovery expected. Battery cell production continues to decrease, and component production also continues to decrease. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak later. Cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48745 - 51255 [10]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main favorable factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production halt and reduction plans. The main unfavorable factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 333,000 tons. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons, with a production profit of 2,145 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,300 tons [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 3, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 385 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 554,000 tons, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 209,000 tons, a 1.92% decrease. The main port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.73% increase [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% increase from the previous week. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in February is 45.31GW, a 1.34% decrease from the previous month. In January, the battery cell production was 41.44GW, an 11.37% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.17GW, a 2.80% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The scheduled production in February is 36.7GW, an 11.43% decrease. In January, the component production was 35.2GW, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production in February is 29.8GW, a 15.34% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 34.2GW, a 9.26% increase. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 3, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,500 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 333,000 tons, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon are presented, along with their changes and price differences. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.65% to 9,240 yuan/ton, and the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton [17]. - Information on various inventories, production, and prices of related products is also provided, such as the weekly social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 554,000 tons, and the weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% to 43,540 tons [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts and various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 01 contract price of polysilicon increased by 0.58% to 51,700 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece [19]. - Information on production, inventory, and export of polysilicon - related products is also provided, such as the weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9GW, and the component monthly production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2GW [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon are presented, including the SI main contract basis trend and the 421 - 553 price difference trend [21]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The disk price trends of polysilicon are presented, including the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis trends [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Information on industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume, is presented [27]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon are presented, including the weekly production of sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [32]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: The cost trends of industrial silicon components are presented, including the main production area electricity price, main production area silica price, graphite electrode price, and partial reducing agent price [38]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Area Trends**: The cost trends of industrial silicon in sample areas are presented, including the cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [40]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance [44][47]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Information on the price, production, import - export, and inventory of organic silicon is presented, including DMC price, production, capacity utilization, and downstream product prices [50]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Information on the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand of aluminum alloy is presented, including waste aluminum recycling, import - export, price, and production of aluminum alloy ingots [58]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Information on the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products (silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc.) is presented, including polysilicon cost, price, inventory, and the production and demand of downstream products [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - **Energy Index**: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the domestic polyethylene market showed multi - dimensional characteristics. Supply increased, demand was in the off - season, inventory was differentiated, and the cost increase supported the improvement of industry profits. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be weakly adjusted due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and uncertainties in inventory and cost [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side Supply and Capacity Utilization - In January, the total domestic polyethylene supply expanded, with the total production reaching 3.44482 million tons, an increase of 730,250 tons from the previous month. LLDPE production was 1.58449 million tons, an increase of 285,420 tons. The production loss due to device maintenance increased by 24.8% to 488,270 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.70%, up 3.8 percentage points. Regional capacity utilization showed a "two - up, one - down" pattern [7][8]. - In the follow - up, the restart of the 400,000 - ton PE device in Zhonghua Quanzhou may increase the supply pressure [9]. Inventory - At the end of January, the total inventory of PE production enterprises decreased to 323,000 tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons. The social inventory of PE increased to 479,600 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons, showing a differentiated pattern [12][13]. Import - In January, the international LLDPE price rose. The import volume in December increased to 1.3299 million tons, an increase of 267,750 tons. The average import profit of each variety improved in January [17][18][19]. Demand Side - In January, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 39.86%, a decrease of 2.58%. The start - up rates of the agricultural film and packaging film industries decreased. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. In February, the demand is expected to be weakly stable, with only a few areas having phased improvement [21][22][23]. Cost and Profit Cost - In January, the cost of oil - based polyethylene increased to 7,395.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 382.71 yuan/ton, and the cost of coal - based polyethylene increased to 6,495 yuan/ton, a increase of 46.86 yuan/ton [24][26]. Profit - In January, the loss of oil - based enterprises narrowed, with the profit at - 588.29 yuan/ton, a recovery of 78.71 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based enterprises increased significantly, reaching 346.43 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 553.14 yuan/ton [27]. Spread - In January, the spread of PE - PVC:01 and PE - PP:01 contracts continued to narrow, reflecting the strength and weakness of related product markets [28]. Summary - In February, the polyethylene market is expected to be affected by the Spring Festival. The supply pressure may increase, the demand will weaken, the inventory may accumulate, and the cost support is uncertain. The market is likely to be weakly adjusted [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].