Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market is currently experiencing a weak and volatile pattern, with a decline in overall market volatility and an increase in cautious sentiment as the focus shifts from strong policy expectations to the realities of a weak off-season [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The volatility of steel prices has significantly narrowed due to a lack of strong supply-demand contradictions that could support a trend in the market [1] - On the supply side, the industry lacks strong top-down policies to counteract internal competition, leading to production adjustments primarily driven by market profit and loss [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar continues to decline, and the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weak, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing rhythm in the spot market [1] Group 2: Macro Economic Environment - The macroeconomic policy remains stable, with expectations for large-scale stimulus cooling down, leading the market to focus more on the actual implementation of policies and marginal improvements in micro data [4] - Trading behavior based solely on macro optimism or pessimism has decreased, with the current focus shifting to immediate responses to inventory and spot transactions [4] Group 3: Cost and Supply Factors - The cost side is unstable, with increasing supply pressures on carbon and iron elements, particularly due to significant increases in imported coal from Mongolia and Russia, which have alleviated previous regional supply tensions [4][5] - The supply of iron elements is becoming more relaxed, with increased shipments from overseas mines and high port arrival volumes, leading to a cautious demand outlook [5] - The current low profitability of steel mills and pessimistic winter storage expectations have resulted in a lack of motivation for replenishing iron ore inventories, maintaining a low inventory production strategy [5] Group 4: Policy Impact on Exports - Recent discussions regarding steel export licensing management have not led to significant price fluctuations, as the core intention of the policy is to regulate export order and avoid chaotic low-price competition among domestic enterprises [10] - The policy aims to shift the market focus from quantity to quality and efficiency, becoming a continuous variable affecting the internal and external trade landscape of steel [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current steel market is in a narrow range with a ceiling supported by high visible inventories and limited terminal consumption capacity [8] - Breaking this high inventory, low volatility, and tight balance pattern will require more policy support, with a focus on either constraints on steel production or improvements in terminal demand [8] - The recommended trading strategy is to adopt a range-bound approach, with rebar prices expected to be between 3050 and 3200 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil prices between 3200 and 3350 yuan/ton, closely monitoring inventory depletion rates and cost sustainability [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - **Outlook**: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - **Outlook**: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - **Outlook**: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - **Outlook**: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - **Outlook**: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - **Outlook**: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market situation is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are affected by strong macro - expectations and weak fundamental realities, such as aluminum. Others are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, policy changes, and external events [2][25]. - In general, many sectors are in a state of volatility, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors in each sector, such as inventory changes, downstream consumption, and policy adjustments [2][70][84]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [2]. - **Methanol**: Due to device disruptions, the price has strengthened. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. Pay attention to inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation. Pay attention to iron water trends, steel mill restocking rhythms, and negotiation situations [3][55]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market, and the macro and the futures market resonate. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [4][72]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term negative factors are exhausted. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread combinations and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. After the New Year, pay attention to the capital situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The price dropped sharply after a high - level rise. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, the price has an upward space. Long positions can be arranged after the callback [13][14]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is in a consolidation stage, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to present an oscillatory pattern in the short term [16]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term price may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [20]. - **Alumina**: The policy is difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [22]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue high - level range oscillations. An arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28]. - **Zinc**: The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [31]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback [39]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. Pay attention to nickel ore news and steel mill production reduction implementation [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations before the New Year. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [49]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in low - level oscillations. Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [51]. 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It continues to reduce production and inventory. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [53]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to cautiously go long for short - term operations [55]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to short at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [59]. - **Coke**: It is recommended to short the 2605 contract at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5500 - 5700. Pay attention to coal price changes [64]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [67]. 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot is loose. It is recommended to operate cautiously [70]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The short - term price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Corn**: The short - term price may rise due to the resonance of futures and cash, but the sustainability of the rise is limited. Pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [75]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a low - level oscillating platform. The domestic market should pay attention to the actual demand after the spot price rises. It is recommended to maintain a rebound - shorting idea [76]. - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may oscillate steadily and strongly [78]. - **Egg**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [81]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may oscillate weakly; soybean oil may oscillate in a narrow range; rapeseed oil may test the pressure level of 9200 yuan [84][85]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [86]. - **Apple**: The short - term market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. Pay attention to the actual inventory reduction progress [88]. 3.3.4 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [90]. - **PTA**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [92]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to short when the processing fee is high [93]. - **Bottle Chips**: The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee at high prices [96]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increase has resistance. It is recommended to conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high prices [97]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in low - level oscillations. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [98]. - **Styrene**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [100]. - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [101]. - **PP**: It is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [102]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the reduction of MTO05 [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price may continue to decline. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern [104]. - **PVC**: It is expected to rebound and then weaken. The supply - demand is in an excess pattern [106]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [108]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [109]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is recommended to hold short positions at 15700 [113]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in wide - range oscillations. It is expected to oscillate between 11200 - 12000 in the short term [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. It analyzes the market trends, fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading suggestions for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Supply is marginally loose, with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand from PTA devices decreases. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation before the holiday, and attention should be paid to position management [5][8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Supply increases as some devices restart. Demand from polyester has a marginal decline but remains at a high level. PTA maintains de - stocking, which is beneficial to the performance of the monthly spread and basis [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory accumulates again, and the trend is still weak. Although there are some supply - side reduction expectations, the current inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change. However, considering the cost factors, the inventory accumulation expectation is marginally improved, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber shows a wide - range oscillation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and some tire enterprises have short - term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which has a certain impact on the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate [12][13]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber follows the decline of the commodity index. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [15][17]. 3.4 LLDPE - For LLDPE, the upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable. The raw material price rebounds, and the profit of the monomer link is compressed. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has some device changes. There is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [18][19]. 3.5 PP - PP is expected to have a stable and oscillating market. Multiple PDH devices are planned for maintenance in January. The cost side has some changes, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals have limited support at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side is weak, and the supply side has high - pressure due to high - start production in winter. The rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not reduce production, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January [24][26]. 3.7 Pulp - Pulp is in a weakly oscillating state. The price of imported pulp has increased in December, but the internal driving logic is differentiated. The overall demand is rigid, but the demand for different types of pulp varies. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [30][35]. 3.8 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has ups and downs, and the overall market trading flexibility has increased, but the shipment in most areas is still average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol oscillates with support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation. It oscillates repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - environment. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation [40][42]. 3.10 Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillating operation. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The driving force is neutral, and the 05 contract has support below. The upper and lower fundamental price limits are estimated [44][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for its price in 2026, but there are also risks such as high inventory of downstream products. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center of gravity throughout the year [48][51]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is weakly stable and oscillating, and the trading is light. The comprehensive production has decreased, and the downstream demand is not strong [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [54][55]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is in a weakly oscillating state. The valuation is at a low level, and although there may be phased rebounds, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side [63][64]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session volatility increases, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strongly oscillating state, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in high - level oscillation. The core issues for the 2602 contract include the freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and short on rallies in the medium - to - long term [69][82]. 3.17 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures price is in weak consolidation, the spot price is stable, and the sales are mostly weak. - **Bottle Chips**: It is in high - level oscillation. The upstream raw material futures price has decreased, and the factory price has been lowered. The market trading atmosphere is weak [84][85]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the scale paper mills' operating loads are basically stable, and the market new orders are few [87][88]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. The inventory in the East China port has increased, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026 and may rebound in the second quarter [92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. - For rubber, the price is oscillating weakly. Bulls and bears have different views. The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [8][9][11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [15][16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [18][19]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [20][21]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [23][24]. - For PTA, after short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [25][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline, at 434.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed changes in refined oil inventories, with a 1.49% overall increase in refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had varying declines. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 137 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices remained unchanged, with a total basis of - 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple previously strong varieties declined, and the rubber price oscillated weakly. The tire开工率 showed mixed changes, and the domestic natural rubber social inventory increased [8][10]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 55 yuan to 4777 yuan. The cost - side prices were mostly stable. The overall开工率 was 77.2%, with a 0.2% decline. The downstream开工率 was 44.5%, with a 0.9% decline. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged, with an expanded basis. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with a strengthened basis. Supply - side开工率 increased, and demand - side开工率 showed mixed changes. Port inventories of both increased [15]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6453 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decline. The spot price rose 50 yuan to 6340 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream average开工率 decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6274 yuan/ton, an 18 - yuan decline. The spot price was unchanged at 6250 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 decreased slightly, and inventory showed mixed changes. The downstream average开工率 decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: With expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 286 yuan to 7270 yuan. PX CFR fell 28 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Import volume increased, and inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 158 yuan to 5122 yuan. The East China spot price fell 110 yuan to 5065 yuan. The load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased. The spot and futures processing fees increased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: After short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan. The East China spot price rose 21 yuan to 3687 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin prices are expected to run strongly. The increase in supply from Myanmar has alleviated high - priced tin to some extent, but the ongoing tense situation in the DRC has kept tin prices high and even pushed them to new highs. With the continuous rise of tin prices, the downstream's willingness to take delivery has decreased, and tin inventories at home and abroad have been accumulating recently. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains growth, while the growth of the domestic automobile and home appliance industries shows a decline in the month - on - month growth rate [14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range - bound manner, with strengthened cost support and a tight supply - demand balance dominating the fluctuations. The upstream raw material prices have increased, strengthening the cost support. The supply capacity is being released in an orderly manner, but the demand for cathode materials has slightly decreased, and the inventory pattern remains tight. The industry is facing increasing profit pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Copper**: The closing price of the futures main contract CU2602 on December 26, 2025, was 98,720 yuan, with a weekly increase of 5,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.95%. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 97,865 yuan, with a weekly increase of 5,385 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.82% [9]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the futures main contract AL2602 on December 26, 2025, was 22,405 yuan, with a weekly increase of 220 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.99%. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the non - ferrous market was 22,060 yuan, with a weekly increase of 220 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.01% [9]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the futures main contract ZN2602 on December 26, 2025, was 23,170 yuan, with a weekly increase of 105 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.46%. The price of zinc ingots (0, Zn99.995, domestic and imported) was 23,120 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 24 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.10% [9]. - **Tin**: The closing price of the futures main contract SN2602 on December 26, 2025, was 338,550 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 4,490 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 1.31%. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 334,000 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 2,000 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.60% [9]. - **Nickel**: The closing price of the futures main contract NI2602 on December 26, 2025, was 126,750 yuan, with a weekly increase of 9,570 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 8.17%. The average price of nickel (1) was 130,810 yuan, with a weekly increase of 10,020 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 8.30% [9]. 02. This Week's Forecast of Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Tin**: The supply from Myanmar has increased, but the situation in the DRC has kept tin prices high. The downstream's willingness to take delivery has decreased, and inventories have accumulated. The semiconductor industry maintains growth, while the growth of the domestic automobile and home appliance industries has slowed down. Tin prices are expected to run strongly [14]. - **Lithium carbonate**: - **Market performance**: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract price on the disk was strong, and the price center continued to rise. The main contract LC2605 increased by 17.16% week - on - week, reaching a new high since July 2024. The average price of SMM electric carbon increased by 6.94% week - on - week to 103,400 yuan/ton. There was a divergence between the spot and futures markets, with the spot market weakly fluctuating and the futures premium expanding [15]. - **Supply side**: Upstream raw materials increased slightly month - on - month and significantly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The overall supply capacity was released in an orderly manner, with production and operating rates increasing by 0.53% month - on - month [15]. - **Demand side**: The production of cathode materials slightly decreased, and inventories continued to decline. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium cells showed strong performance, with a year - on - year production increase of 61.58%, while ternary cells were weak, with a production of 7.1 GWh (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%) [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories increased slightly, and sample inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace. The overall inventory was still tight [15]. - **Cost and profit**: Mainstream production processes continued to be in a loss state, and the loss differentials expanded. Import and export and delivery arbitrage profits showed different characteristics [15]. 03. Variety Data (Tin, Lithium Carbonate) Tin - **Refined tin production and operating rate**: In the week of December 26, the combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.338 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0265 million tons. The combined operating rate was 69.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47% [20]. - **Tin ingot inventory**: In the week of December 19, the total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 8,095 tons, a month - on - month increase of 704 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,261 tons. The social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China was 9,192 tons, a month - on - month increase of 732 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,387 tons [23]. - **Tin concentrate processing fees**: The processing fees for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Tin ore import profit and loss**: In the week of December 25, the import profit and loss level of tin ore was 22,313.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8,852 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 4,232.29 yuan [26]. - **Spot average prices**: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Key high - frequency data in the industrial chain**: - The closing price of the main contract on December 26, 2025, increased by 17.16% week - on - week and 68.37% year - on - year. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 53.85% week - on - week and increased by 363.18% year - on - year. - The position of the main contract decreased by 13.72% week - on - week and increased by 253.34% year - on - year. - The basis of the main contract increased by 33.48% week - on - week and 869.79% year - on - year. - The number of warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 15.34% week - on - week and decreased by 65.30% year - on - year [32]. - **Supply side**: - **Raw material market**: The prices of various types of lithium ore increased significantly, strengthening cost support [34]. - **Operating rate**: The total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year, with significant differences among different production processes [36]. - **Production**: The total weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year [41]. - **Demand side**: - **Cathode material market**: The overall cathode material market showed a short - term decline in production and continuous inventory reduction [45]. - **Terminal market**: The production of power cells decreased slightly, showing a differentiation between strong phosphoric acid iron - lithium and weak ternary [48]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pattern remained tight, and the inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end [55]. - **Cost and profit**: - The production of lithium carbonate using purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state, with the loss of lithium spodumene concentrate production expanding and that of lithium mica concentrate production narrowing year - on - year [60]. - The import of lithium carbonate still had a profit, but the profit margin had narrowed. There were significant differences among varieties, and the delivery arbitrage window for lithium carbonate was opened [60][61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by sentiment and funds. The core contradiction lies in the huge divergence between the futures market's optimistic expectations for supply and the real - world pressures in the spot market (high costs, weak price - following ability, and accumulating warehouse receipts). The market is expected to enter a period of high - level violent fluctuations under the influence of sentiment and regulatory pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a rapid correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose 16.89% to 120,400 yuan/ton this week. The main futures contract soared 17.16% to 130,520 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also increased. For example, the price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 15.19% to 102,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises decreased. For example, the premium and discount of raw materials like辉石料 decreased by 250 yuan, and that of enterprises like 赣锋锂 decreased by 200 - 300 yuan [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at a high level of 83.52%. There is a structural contradiction between high domestic production and the expected seasonal production reduction in salt lakes. The report also details the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, including production in different regions and from different raw material sources [2]. - **Demand**: Cathode material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high prices and are cautious in purchasing. There is a contradiction between structural support and price suppression in the demand side [2]. - **Import and Export**: The report does not provide relevant data on lithium carbonate imports and exports. The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and other countries remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased by 15.15% to 17,861 lots this week, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market is being transmitted to the futures market [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material cost has risen rapidly. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 18.07% to 129,875 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,475.3 yuan/ton, with most production capacities still in a loss state [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis The report also involves the lithium - battery market, including the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]