Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium serves as a significant platform for discussing global economic issues, influencing market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate adjustments and inflation outlooks [1][6][19]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Insights - The symposium is hosted annually by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and includes central bank governors, finance ministers, and academic and financial professionals [1][6]. - In the 2022 meeting, Fed Chair Powell adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for aggressive rate hikes to combat high inflation, which subsequently led to a faster pace of U.S. interest rate increases [1][6]. - The 2023 meeting saw Powell indicating a more cautious approach, stating that the Fed would proceed carefully, which resulted in a halt to further rate increases [1][6][7]. Group 2: Powell's 2025 Speech Highlights - In his 2025 speech, Powell expressed a dovish outlook, suggesting that changes in economic prospects and risk balances may necessitate adjustments in the Fed's policy stance [2][8]. - He noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be relatively short-lived, indicating a potential for inflationary pressures to stabilize [2][10]. - Powell highlighted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is characterized by a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, increasing the risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [2][11]. Group 3: FOMC Long-Term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy - The FOMC released a new statement modifying its long-term goals, removing references to the "zero lower bound" and emphasizing the use of all policy tools to achieve dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability [3][12]. - The statement shifted from a flexible average inflation targeting strategy back to a simpler inflation targeting approach, indicating a return to traditional inflation management [3][12][13]. - The FOMC's focus has now shifted to promoting "maximum employment," allowing for more flexibility in policy adjustments without being constrained by perceived employment gaps [3][12][13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dovish tone from Powell increased the probability of a September rate cut, with market expectations reflecting an 84% chance of a rate reduction following the Jackson Hole meeting [5][19]. - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.89%, the S&P 500 by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards potential rate cuts [5][19]. - Key economic indicators, such as employment data and inflation expectations, remain critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions, with the Fed closely monitoring these metrics [4][14][20].

Group 1 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the A-share market is significant, especially in the context of increasing global financial market interconnectivity [1][3] - Historical data indicates that the Fed's interest rate hike cycles typically create phase-specific shocks to the A-share market through three main channels: a stronger dollar pressuring the RMB exchange rate, rising global risk-free rates reducing the relative attractiveness of equity assets, and tighter monetary policy potentially slowing global economic growth, which impacts Chinese exports [3] - The A-share market's operational logic is primarily driven by domestic fundamentals, with key factors including the domestic economic cycle, industrial policies, and corporate profitability [3] Group 2 - Investors should focus on several key points to navigate the impact of the Fed's policies: monitoring changes in the China-US interest rate differential, particularly the relative trends of ten-year government bond yields, tracking northbound capital flows as an indicator of foreign investor sentiment, and prioritizing sectors less affected by external influences, such as consumer staples and healthcare, which typically exhibit stronger risk resilience [3] - In a volatile market environment, maintaining a balanced asset allocation is crucial, including increasing the proportion of cash assets to preserve liquidity for capturing market mispricing opportunities, and employing strategies like phased entry and dynamic rebalancing to mitigate risks from single policy shocks [3] - The ongoing reform and opening-up of the capital market is expected to enhance the independence of the A-share market, although global financial market interlinkages will persist, necessitating a dual focus on internal factors and the Fed's policy trends for rational investment and effective risk management [4]

Group 1 - President Trump has threatened to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook if she does not resign, escalating pressure on the Fed from the White House [1] - Trump criticized Cook's performance, particularly regarding her mortgage qualifications, and indicated he would take action if she does not step down [1] - Senator Elizabeth Warren suggested that Trump's targeting of Cook is an attempt to find a scapegoat for his failure to lower costs for Americans [1] Group 2 - Market analysts believe that if Trump successfully removes Cook, it could help him reshape the Federal Reserve Board [2] - Cook was appointed by President Biden in 2022 and her term extends until 2038, complicating Trump's plans to gain majority control of the Fed Board [2] - Currently, only two of the seven Fed governors were appointed by Trump, which limits his influence [2] Group 3 - The controversy stems from allegations made by Bill Pulte, who accused Cook of making false statements on mortgage applications [3] - Pulte provided documents he claims bear Cook's signature and referred the matter to the Department of Justice for further investigation [3] - DOJ officials have urged Fed Chairman Powell to take immediate action regarding Cook's position on the Board [3]

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

此番表态正值全球央行年会召开之际，市场密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的演讲，期待从中获取关于利率政策走向的线索。今年以来，由于关税政策 对经济影响存在不确定性，美联储一直维持利率稳定。古尔斯比作为联邦公开市场委今年拥有投票权的成员，其观点受到市场格外重视。 就在古尔斯比发表评论的同时，其他联储官员也表达了各自的观点。波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在另一次采访中暗示，如果劳动力市场状况恶化程度超过 通胀风险上升幅度，九月份降息可能是合适的选择。这一表态与古尔斯比的谨慎立场形成微妙对比，反映出美联储内部正在就政策走向进行深入讨论。 分析人士认为，当前美国经济正处于复杂阶段。一方面就业市场保持相对稳健，另一方面通胀走势出现新的不确定性。古尔斯比此前曾表示，经济前景仍然 复杂，美联储需要等待更多数据才能做出利率调整决策。这种审慎态度在美联储决策者中具有一定代表性。 芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比近日在杰克逊霍尔年会期间表示，尽管近期美国多数通胀指标呈现向好趋势，但最新数据中出现的服务业通胀意 外飙升值得警惕。他指出，这一变化可能独立于关税政策的影响，并将其描述为一个"危险的数据点"，同时表示希望这仅是暂时现象。 ...

Group 1 - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that inflation trends have once again become a focal point for monetary policy [1][3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding noted that current inflation risks slightly exceed labor market risks, suggesting that monetary policy is in a relatively ideal position [1][3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is expected to draw attention, with the theme focusing on the transforming labor market and macroeconomic policy [3][8] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the conference, with investors looking for signals regarding the September interest rate meeting [6][8] - Discussions on the timing of potential rate cuts depend on whether policymakers believe current policies are "overly restrictive," with Schmieding suggesting that existing policies are "moderately tight" [6][8] - Recent economic data, including a surprising rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, has added complexity to policy-making [6][8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market shows a weak rebound, with the possibility of an early end to the short-term rally. The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank meeting is crucial for predicting future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - Market speculation is high regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the latest PPI data causing some traders to temper their expectations. However, the bond market continues to bet on a rate cut [1] - Technical analysis indicates a weak bullish momentum for gold, with significant resistance at $3334 and a potential drop below $3327 leading to new lows [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, but the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances. OPEC+ has increased production, exacerbating the situation [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has been in a production increase phase, with a total increase of 246.7 million barrels per day expected by September, ahead of schedule [2] - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a mid-term rebound in oil prices, but the overall trend remains bearish with resistance at $64 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a slight rebound but remains in a downward trend, heavily influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential rate cut in September, with some officials opposing it due to high inflation levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index is facing resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential for a pullback [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish K-line pattern, indicating the start of a mid-term adjustment. The short-term outlook shows lower highs and a potential continuation of the downtrend [5] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a corrective phase following previous declines, with a high probability of forming a downward ABC pattern. Resistance is noted at $4.42 [6] Group 6: Economic Data Overview - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 reached 235,000, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since late June [7] - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI for August is 53.3, surpassing expectations and indicating a return to expansion [7] - EIA natural gas inventories rose by 130 billion cubic feet, with the rate of increase slowing down [7] Group 7: Upcoming Events - Key events include an interview with Boston Fed President Collins and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is taking place from August 21 to 23, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech being a focal point. Analysts suggest that Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts, and if any guidance is given, it may lean towards a hawkish stance [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma, with uncertainty regarding the labor market's deterioration and accumulating inflation risks due to tariffs increasing corporate costs [2][3]. - Powell's views on the labor market and inflation risks are crucial, as his perception of whether the labor market has "cooled to policy goals" will directly impact the necessity for rate cuts [2][3]. - The U.S. July non-farm payroll data was significantly below market expectations, leading to a market consensus that the Fed would begin cutting rates in September, with expectations of three cuts this year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market sentiment appears to be preparing for hawkish signals from Powell, with the S&P 500 index declining for five consecutive trading days, particularly in the tech sector [7]. - If Powell's speech leans towards a dovish tone, confirming a potential rate cut in September, it could alleviate market concerns and boost the stock market. Conversely, a cautious or hawkish stance could trigger a new wave of selling [7]. - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 0.9% increase in the five trading days surrounding past Jackson Hole meetings, suggesting that the market often gains certainty from the Fed Chair's remarks [7]. Group 3: Dollar and Commodity Impacts - Powell's emphasis on inflation pressures could lead to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, while a dovish stance might weaken the dollar [7][9]. - Gold prices are currently fluctuating with the dollar's movements, and if Powell adopts a dovish tone, gold and other safe-haven assets may strengthen in the following days [8].

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于38.16一线下方，今日开盘于38.13美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货白银暂 报38.12美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及38.19美元/盎司，最低下探38.06美元/盎司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向 震荡走势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一方 面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表态反 映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经济，也 将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择何 种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心，而施 密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了一线希 望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银市场昨日开盘在37.924的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice is planning to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that inflation remains high and on an upward trend, indicating no reason for a rate cut if a meeting were held tomorrow [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but the labor market's direction is concerning and warrants close monitoring [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that while some recent inflation data shows signs of easing, a surprising surge in service prices poses a "danger signal" [3] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in September, while a 75% probability exists for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The global central bank annual meeting commenced in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with market participants closely watching Fed Chair Powell's speech for insights on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The U.S. reported an increase in the August composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months, while initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [4] - The market is experiencing mixed signals due to the conflicting economic data, contributing to fluctuations in trading [4] Group 4 - The current outlook for gold remains bearish, with expectations of further declines towards key support levels [6] - The market is observing resistance at the 3350 area, with potential downward movements if this level is not sustained [8] - Key support levels are identified at 3325-20, with further critical support at 3300 and 3280 [10]