一方面，点阵图给出的降息预期较3月边际偏鹰。虽然年内维持两次降息不变，但2026年降息预期从2次 变为1次。此外，支持年内不降息的官员数量从4名增加至7名（共19名），反映出美联储官员对待降息 更加谨慎。 另一方面，"滞涨"预期有所增加。美联储在6月上修了2025年和2026年的失业率和PCE的预测，同时下 修了经济预期。其中名义PCE和核心PCE均回升至3%以上，当前美国核心PCE同比2.52%，名义PCE同 比2.15%。 会后鲍威尔称，关税对通胀的影响需要时间传导，预计未来几个月通胀将明显上升；当前利率并不算很 高，鉴于通胀形势，仍需要货币政策保持一定的限制性。 6月19日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持 在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 美联储此次维持利率不变，符合市场预期，但表态略显鹰派。 展望后市，光大证券认为，6月议息会议后，市场降息预期变化不大。利率期货隐含的全年降息次数仍 维持2次，7月降息概率维持10%左右，9月降息概率维持70%左右。未来仍需关注贸易谈判结果、减税 法案的落地及伊以局势的 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3362.11 | -0.79 | | 深证成指 | 10051.97 | -1.21 | | 创业板指 | 2026.82 | -1.36 | | 科创 50 | 962.94 | -0.54 | | 北证 50 | 1365.79 | -1.98 | | 沪深 300 | 3843.09 | -0.82 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 651464 | 506058 | 11.98 | 1.24 | | 深证成指 | 221907 | 181347 | 19.64 | 2.08 | | 创业板指 | 57477 | 45432 | 26.56 | 3.71 | | 科创 50 | 33455 | 22070 | 52.24 | 4.01 | | 北证 ...

地缘局势和经贸谈判关键窗口期，联储再度短期观望 ——2025 年 6 月份美联储议息会议点评 国投期货研究院 朱赫 期货投资咨询号 Z0015192 靳顺柔子 期货投资咨询号 Z0014424 事件：货币政策方面，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%，符合会议前的市场预期。总的来看，尽管声明上美联储指出了近期关税的"不 确定性"，且"滞胀"的风险有所降低，但在点阵图上又传递了关于今年降息门槛更高 的信号，因此两方面因素共同作用下仍然是一个中性的信号，和此前美联储的观望状态 变化不大。美股冲高回落整体呈现震荡格局，美债价格亦冲高回落，中概股收跌，原油 和黄金主要还是根据伊以局势的发展总体呈现小幅震荡回调。 点评： 一、会前关注点：观望立场开始松动？ 在 5 月份的议息会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场预期。会议声明偏中性，美联储在此次决议中表示出观望态度，警示了 关税带来的潜在的滞胀风险，并再次明确了"不确定性增加"，同时重申不急于采取先 发制人的决策。目前 Fed Watch 数据显示 6 月议息会议大概率维持利率不变。 ...

投资摘要: & Every exit is an entry somewhere else. 证券研究报告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强 -- 6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025年第4期 资产配置快评 2025年06月19日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 电话:010-66500825 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 电话:010-66500830 邮箱: guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 -Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变,对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期,上调通胀预期,其中 2025年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%,核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示,2025年降息次数或仍为两次,2026年和2027年降息次 数均从2次降至1次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕,同时对于货币政策限 制性的表达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid concerns of worsening inflation and economic slowdown [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed projects that by the end of 2025, inflation will rise to 3%, up from a previous forecast of 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5% from 4.4% [1]. - Economic growth is anticipated to slow to 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.7% [1][6]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - The latest dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance, with 7 officials expecting no rate cuts this year, compared to 4 in March, while the number of officials supporting two rate cuts has decreased from 9 to 8 [2][3]. - There is a notable split among Fed officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Fed Chair Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. government tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that these effects may be long-lasting [2][4]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the influence of tariffs on inflation, with concerns that they may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 were slightly adjusted, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising, while U.S. stocks and gold weakened [2][5]. - Current market predictions indicate a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 10% chance of a rate cut [5]. Employment Trends - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations [7]. - The labor market is facing structural pressures, which may increase the demand for rate cuts in the medium to long term [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Economists have differing views on the timing of potential rate cuts, with some suggesting that the Fed may not cut rates more than twice this year due to ongoing inflation concerns [8]. - There is speculation that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026 if economic conditions continue to deteriorate [7][8].

东方金诚宏观研究 关税对通胀传导路径不明， 美联储仍将继续观望 ——美联储 6 月货币政策会议点评与展望 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标 区间依然维持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场普遍预期。本次美联储的决议相比上次大致保持不变，但提 出经济前景的不确定性有所减弱。反映美联储官员对利率前景预期水平的点阵图显示，美联储官员预 计今年会有两次 25 个基点的降息，和 3 月的预测完全相同，但预计今年不降息的官员增加。会后公 布的经济展望显示，美联储官员本次下调了今明两年的 GDP 增长预期、上调今明后三年的失业率预 期、上调今明后三年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示，目前美国经济形势稳固，他对就业市场情况满意。但贸易政策和财政政 策的调整仍然不确定，而加征关税可能会推高美国的价格，关税对通胀的影响可能会更加顽固，预计 未来数月将出现一定幅度的通胀压力上升。他也表示，目前来看，关税的总体影响有多大、会持续多 久、什么时候完全体现出来，都非常不确定。他重申，这可能会发现美联储双重职责 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 增量信息有限——美联储 6 月议息会议点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 6 月议息会议决议。 核心结论：美联储如期维持利率不变，下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点 阵图显示年内降息次数维持 2 次不变，明年降息从 2 次减少至 1 次。会议 过后，市场降息预期变化不大，仍维持全年降 2 次、首次在 9 月。继续提 示：未来两个月将是重要的窗口期，关注贸易谈判结果、特朗普财政法案 落地情况、伊朗-以色列局势演化。美联储下次会议是 7/31，届时这些事 件均有望尘埃落定，因此下次会议可能释放更多政策信号。 1、美联储如期按兵不动，下调经济预测，点阵图显示降息空间减少。 >会议决议：美联储维持联邦基金利率 4.25-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。 会议声明有两处明显变化：（1）对经济前景不确定性的表述从"进一步加 剧"改为"有所下降，但依然很高"；（2）删掉了"委员会判断失业率和通 胀上升的风险已经增加"。 >点阵图：本次更新的利率点阵图与 3 月相比，美联储官员对年内降息的 预期维持 2 次不 ...

Group 1 - The gold TD market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a current price of 781.87 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The highest price reached was 785.60 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 780.79 CNY per gram during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Analyst Enda Curran notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks do not appear particularly dovish, indicating satisfaction with the current economic conditions while being cautious about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2] - Analyst Roseanne Briggen highlights that traders initially expected a hawkish stance from the FOMC, but the outcome was contrary, with the Fed maintaining its position and indicating a potential 50 basis points cut in 2025 [2] - Powell acknowledges a gradual cooling in the labor market but emphasizes that the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns, expressing a willingness to wait for more information before deciding on future actions [2] Group 3 - The current resistance level for gold T+D is identified in the range of 805-810 CNY per gram, while the support level is noted at 755-760 CNY per gram [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [2] - Recent indicators show steady expansion in U.S. economic activity, low unemployment rates, and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [2] - The Fed's economic forecast was adjusted, lowering the GDP growth expectation for this year by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%, while raising the core PCE price index expectation to 3.1% and the unemployment rate expectation to 4.5% [2] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, with varying opinions among officials regarding the timing and number of cuts [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the current policy stance is appropriate and that the Fed will wait to assess economic developments before considering policy adjustments [3] - Powell noted that tariffs will likely raise prices and impact economic activity, with the extent of the impact depending on the scope and duration of the tariffs [3] Group 3 - Powell reiterated that the Fed's focus is on ensuring a robust U.S. economy with a strong labor market and stable prices, dismissing personal attacks from President Trump [4] - Powell's term will end in May 2026, and there is speculation about potential candidates for the next Fed Chair, including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Benset [4]