Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][77]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is showing signs of recovery, with the industry capacity cycle having bottomed out. The current high inventory levels and peak post-slaughter weights suggest a potential turning point in inventory, which may lead to a long-term profit uptrend after destocking [4][75]. - The report highlights a stable increase in pig prices, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. However, the demand is expected to weaken as the summer approaches [1][24]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices dropping to 13,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% week-on-week. This shift indicates a transition from strong reality to weak expectations in the market [3][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.79% compared to a slight decline in major indices [14]. - The pig farming segment is witnessing a slight increase in slaughter weights, with the average weight at 129.18 kg, down 0.15% week-on-week [24]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, while the average price of piglets increased by 5.2% year-on-year [2][23]. - The inventory of breeding sows remained stable at 40.38 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [2][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting stocks like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential long-term gains [4][75]. - For the post-cycle sector, companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological are highlighted due to the rising demand for feed and veterinary products [4][75]. - In the planting chain, the report suggests investing in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as grain prices are on an upward trend [4][75]. 4. Commodity Insights - The report notes a significant drop in natural rubber prices, indicating a cautious sentiment among manufacturers regarding raw material procurement [3][65]. - The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown mixed trends, with corn prices slightly increasing while soybean meal prices have decreased [50][54].

Group 1 - The company Zhongnong Lihua (603970) has signed a share acquisition letter of intent to acquire at least 50% of Taizhou Agricultural Materials Co., Ltd. from its natural person shareholders, which will make Taizhou Agricultural Materials a subsidiary of Zhongnong Lihua [1] - Taizhou Agricultural Materials reported a revenue of 603 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.36 million yuan, down 19.42% year-on-year [2] - The agricultural materials market is facing challenges such as overcapacity, price pressure, and weak supply and demand, leading to a decline in sales and profitability expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Zhongnong Lihua's main business includes pesticide distribution and plant protection technology services, focusing on selling pesticide raw materials and providing crop health solutions [2] - The pesticide industry is entering a consolidation phase, with raw material prices expected to continue declining, following a 41.7% drop in 2023 and an additional 9.1% decrease in 2024 [3] - The domestic agricultural product prices are persistently low, affecting farmers' willingness to invest in planting, resulting in weak terminal demand and intense competition [3]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。从这一指标可以理解"924"以来的经济节奏：2024年10-11月，政策初步见效，微观状况连续好 转；2024年12月，地方集中化债，经济景气度有所回踩；2025年1-3月，民营企业家座谈会叠加Deep Seek重大突破，微观景气度第二轮上行；4月，关税扰动 下经济再度出现回踩；5月，一揽子金融政策叠加关税缓和，经济再度企稳。从万得全A指数观测，股票市场基本上是相似的节奏，可见市场定价的有效性。 第二， 和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主 要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 第三， 融资环境改善应主要与5月初一揽子金融政策有关，包括货币政策一端"降准+降息+结构性工具扩容"，以及金融政策一端确保外贸企业"应贷尽贷、应续尽 续"；同时中美日内瓦联合声明后，外需产业链的基本面和信用状况也有所改善。BCI融资环境指数环比上行1.1个点，估计5月信贷情况会好于4月。从大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. at AAA, with a stable outlook, indicating strong financial health and operational stability despite industry challenges [1][4]. Company Overview - Tangshan Jidong Cement is a major state-owned cement enterprise in China, with a clinker production capacity ranking third in the country and a market share exceeding 50% in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [4][10]. - The company has a registered capital of 2.658 billion yuan and is controlled by Beijing Jinyu Group, which holds a 44.34% stake [8]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 25.287 billion yuan in 2024, with a net loss of 896 million yuan [8]. - As of the end of 2024, the total assets were 59.314 billion yuan, and the owner's equity was 29.259 billion yuan [8]. - The company has maintained a net cash inflow from operating activities, which can cover investment cash needs [4][6]. Industry Position - The cement industry is facing overcapacity issues, with ongoing structural adjustments and a competitive environment [5][9]. - The company benefits from strong support from its controlling shareholder, which provides favorable financing conditions and a low overall financing cost [5][6]. Operational Efficiency - The company's clinker and cement capacity utilization rates were 62.07% and 45.85%, respectively, which are below industry averages due to extended shutdown periods in its operational regions [10][11]. - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of 85% for limestone, which helps in controlling raw material costs [11]. Market Challenges - The cement industry is experiencing a decline in sales prices and profitability due to increased competition and economic downturns in the real estate sector [6][9]. - The company faces risks related to regional economic conditions, as 72% of its revenue comes from the North China region [6].

晶科能源董事长李仙德表示，本轮光伏行业的供求失衡是多因素叠加作用的结果，长期维度包括行业从 补贴时代完全进入平价时代的切换，中期维度包括产业自身的扩张——收缩周期，以及主流电池技术从 PERC向TOPCon切换；短期维度包括2022年的一些国际事件对欧洲天然气价格和新能源需求的剧烈刺 激，造成本轮行业供需失衡的程度较大，时间较长。 阿特斯董事、总经理、首席执行官庄岩称，行业供过于求局面目前没有出现根本性变化，2025年公司在 行业产品价格有明显回升之前，继续平衡组件出货量和利润的关系，优先保证高价市场订单。 如何应对关税扰动：预计影响可消化，持续本土化与多元化布局 中国光伏产品作为出口新三样之一，在全球市场享有极高的份额，头部企业营收的相当部分来自海外市 场。近期国际关税政策的扰动也让企业再度思考出海策略。 5月13日，四家光伏组件头部企业晶科能源（688223.SH）、晶澳科技（002459）（002459.SZ）、天合 光能（688599.SH）、阿特斯（688472.SH）同日召开业绩会。 光伏行业曾是新能源板块最热门的赛道，但在供需失衡、贸易壁垒等多重因素冲击下，去年多家光伏企 业交出了史上最差成绩单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of "anti-involution" in various industries as reflected in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies in response to market conditions [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has seen a significant reduction in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, dropping from 5.17 in 2022 to 2.37 in 2023, and further to a historical low of 1.77 in 2024, indicating a controlled expansion of capacity [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, major companies like CATL reported a 6.19% revenue growth, while EVE Energy experienced a 37.34% increase, confirming the industry's recovery [2]. Group 2: Silicon Material and Wafer Industry - The silicon material and wafer industry has drastically reduced its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 4.1 in 2023 to 1.94 in 2024, marking a historical low due to significant losses [4][5]. - Leading company Tongwei Co. reported an 18.58% revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a negative gross margin of -2.88%, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [5]. Group 3: Special Steel Industry - The special steel industry saw its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio decrease from 0.93 in 2023 to 0.57 in 2024, suggesting a contraction in capacity but still maintaining profitability among major players [7]. - In 2024, China imported 2.555 million tons of special steel, valued at $5.248 billion, highlighting ongoing demand in high-end steel products [7]. Group 4: Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry experienced a decline in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 6.98 in 2023 to 1.76 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [10]. - In Q1 2025, leading company Hoshine Silicon reported a gross margin drop to 14.62%, the lowest in its history, reflecting the industry's ongoing struggles [10]. Group 5: Titanium Dioxide Industry - The titanium dioxide industry faced low prices in 2024, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 0.78, indicating a contraction in capacity [12]. - Leading company Longbai Group showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a slight recovery in gross margin, although demand remains uncertain due to external factors [12]. Group 6: Coking Industry - The coking industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.18 in 2024, despite being at a historical low price point [16]. - Leading company Shanxi Coking has reported negative gross margins for ten consecutive quarters, indicating persistent difficulties in the sector [16]. Group 7: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber industry reported a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.45 in 2024, down from 2.3 in the previous year, suggesting a nearing of historical lows [17]. - Major player China Jushi saw a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [17]. Group 8: Inorganic Salt Industry - The inorganic salt industry faced continuous price declines, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.06 in 2024, indicating a contraction in capacity [21]. - Leading company Sinochem International reported a gross margin of 9.48% in Q1 2025, the lowest since its listing, reflecting ongoing challenges [21]. Group 9: Inverter Industry - The inverter industry has seen a significant drop in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from previous years, now at 4.43 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in expansion [23]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence, with leading companies like Sungrow continuing to perform well, while smaller firms face losses [23].

核 心 观 点 行业比较：电子和机械设备对美敞口更大。 我国对美国电子商品出口最多，而 交运设备关税税率最高 ，加 征后高达 168% 。从中观行业来看，具体到我国对美出口一级行业，电子、轻工、机械与纺织出口依赖度及 份额均较高。从美国进口来看，电子与轻工对我国进口依赖度与进口份额均较高。综合来看， 电子和机械设 备对美敞口更大 。 上游原材料、制造业受冲击严重，后续去产能对冲。 ① 电 子行业的营收对美敞口较大， 若对美出口全部 消失，对行业总营收的影响约为 3.2% 左右，成本传导为主要机制，后续国内产业政策或将推动国产替代，政 策补贴提振消费电子。 ②机械设备行业的营收对美敞口也较大， 如果对美出口全部消失，对行业总营收的影 响为 4.2% 左右，或将加速行业重组。当前国内设备更新政策已经前置推出，同时城市更新等稳增长政策也有 利于扩大机械设备总需求。往后看，产业升级或将加速。 ③交运设备行业的营收对美敞口较小， 即便对美出 口全部消失，对行业总营收的影响也仅为 1.9% 左右，不过行业利润空间或将被挤压。当前国内促进汽车消费 的相关政策也已经前置落地，后续促内需仍有空间，扩外需方面，"一带一路"共建国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035), has reported its performance in line with expectations, showing a positive outlook for growth and maintaining a "Buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.77% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, a decrease of 41.63% year-on-year - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.686 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 67.98% to 257 million yuan [2] Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown by product shows herbicides generated 9.732 billion yuan (73.19% of total revenue) with a gross margin of 17.76%, insecticides contributed 2.105 billion yuan (15.83%) with a gross margin of 26.91%, and fungicides accounted for 1.313 billion yuan (9.88%) with a gross margin of 22.05% - The sales model indicates that TOA and TOB business segments accounted for 62.35% of revenue with a gross margin of 14.23%, while TOC business contributed 37.65% of revenue with a gross margin of 28.99% - The company is expected to see continued improvement in operations in 2025, despite the crop protection industry being at a cyclical low with significant oversupply in domestic and Indian markets - The market is anticipated to shift from "de-stocking" to "capacity reduction" in 2025, leading to intensified competition - Trade protectionism and various market factors are expected to increase operational uncertainties, but the overall operating gross margin is projected to improve as the company expands its TOC business and enhances its global operational capabilities [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 1.004 billion yuan, 1.215 billion yuan, and 1.491 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.575 yuan, 4.326 yuan, and 5.309 yuan - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 16.78, 13.87, and 11.30 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4] Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, five institutions have provided ratings for the stock, all of which are "Buy" ratings [7]

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

Group 1: AI Industry and Ecosystem - The AI industry chain covers multiple levels, including infrastructure, model, platform, application, and service layers, with key areas such as chips, computing, storage, networking, and software [1] - DeepSeek has achieved significant performance improvements in model training and inference through innovative training methods and architectures, resulting in lower training costs compared to industry averages [1] - OpenAI's GPT series, including GPT-4, has driven the development of the AI industry, particularly in utilizing pre-training principles like Scaling Law [1] - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand will benefit related industries such as semiconductors, storage, servers, optical modules, PCBs, and power supplies [1] Group 2: Home Appliance Sector Investment Opportunities - The home appliance sector, particularly the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines), is characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, making it an attractive investment area [2] - The second-hand housing market has shown a rapid recovery, with a 92.2% week-on-week increase in transaction area in key cities from February 8 to 14, indicating strong market resilience [2] - Air conditioner domestic sales growth reached 11.4%, reflecting positive effects from seasonal stocking and national subsidy policies [2] - The kitchen appliance sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, suggesting a focus on undervalued kitchen appliance stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Inflation - The effectiveness of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" policies is debated, with a greater emphasis on expanding consumer demand to stimulate economic recovery [3] - Service prices have reached historical lows, and a significant increase in service prices could positively impact the GDP deflator index [3] - A dual approach of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" is necessary, but prioritizing consumption promotion is deemed more effective [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Development - The number of global commercial space launches has doubled in the past three years, surpassing non-commercial launches, with commercial launches accounting for 56% of the total [4] - The construction of commercial space launch facilities and satellite manufacturing capabilities in Hainan is accelerating, with expectations of significant increases in launch capacity by 2026 [4] - The market potential for China's commercial aerospace upstream satellite manufacturing is estimated to be between 368.8 billion to 463.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2030 [4] Group 5: AI and Consumer Trends - Technology is driving consumption upgrades, with the consumer sector expected to become a new growth driver for the economy as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [5] - AI technology is anticipated to revolutionize the home appliance industry, particularly in products like robotic vacuum cleaners, which have substantial market potential [6] - The application of AI in education (2C AI) presents significant market opportunities, especially in scenarios with large user bases and essential needs [7] - Emerging e-commerce brands have rapidly developed by leveraging online platforms, contributing to the consumer stock market boom post-2016 [8]