Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The current rubber market lacks a clear directional guide, with both long and short factors intertwined. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract price range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 yuan/ton to - 920 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 1035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.36%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 18.75% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%. Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, while that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 15, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 tons to 619,852 tons, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 tons to 46,469 tons, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 795 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 33.33%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 50.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. The production in Yunnan increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the weekly data, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 10 tons to 11,700 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 80 tons to 3,140 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly, mainly driven by two factors: concerns about inventory accumulation and an increase in warehouse receipts, and expectations of policy benefits. In August, both supply and demand increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit expected to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to try shorting at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 yuan/ton to - 5,280 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 27.03% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the month, polysilicon production increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The import volume decreased by 200 tons to 800 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The export volume increased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 9,000 tons to 242,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 690 tons to 19,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.61% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The previous news caused fluctuations in the futures market, but it has no impact on the soda ash supply for now. The weekly production has increased significantly, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation pattern. The overall fundamentals are in obvious surplus. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract has been weak, and the spot trading has weakened significantly. The market negative feedback continues. The far - month 01 contract shows a volatile pattern. The glass demand side has certain pressure, and in the long run, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. The East China price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,190 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.46%. The 2505 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53% [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton. The 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24 percentage points to 87.32%. The weekly soda ash production increased by 17,000 tons to 761,300 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23% [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157,900 tons to 6,342,600 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 1,893,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the log futures price declined weakly, mainly because the recent increase in the number of seller - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the market, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery needs further observation. The current spot market is relatively strong in the short term. The demand side remains firm, and the inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The 2509 log contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 811 yuan/ton. The price of 3.9A small - radiation pine at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 yuan to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The port shipping volume decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32%. As of August 15, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 3.06 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 0.65% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices tend to decline, but the downside space is narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. [1][3][4] - LPG: Low valuation and improved demand lead to a short - term rebound. However, due to the weak oil price at the cost end, partial profit - taking on long positions is recommended. [1][7][9] - L: Cost support is weak, but with the approaching peak season for shed films, demand support strengthens. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm and consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [1][12][16] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [1][19][22] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [1][25][29] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. [1][35][37] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. [2][39][41] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and port inventory accumulates. Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but winter fertilizer use and exports are relatively good. Take profit on 09 short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil prices have room to compress, raw material supply is sufficient, and supply increases while demand decreases. Try short positions with a light position. [2] - Propylene: The absolute price is low. Buy on dips as the downstream is entering the seasonal peak season. [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.16%, Brent rising 1.14%, and SC falling 0.76%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increases, putting pressure on oil prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased in January - July. Global oil demand is expected to grow, and US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending August 8. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC. [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 18, the PG main contract closed at 3,849 yuan/ton, down 0.67% month - on - month. [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weak, but the fundamentals are good, with high basis, improved supply - demand, and a short - term rebound. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions due to the possible drag of weak oil prices at the cost end. Focus on the range of [3830 - 3930] for PG. [10] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,334 yuan/ton (down 17 day - on - day). [13][14] - **Industry News**: PE prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand. [15] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weak, but demand support strengthens with the approaching peak season. Consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,048 yuan/ton (down 36 day - on - day). [20][21] - **Industry News**: The market is expected to oscillate bearishly in the short term due to factors such as demand and supply. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,054 yuan/ton (down 43 day - on - day). [26][27] - **Industry News**: The domestic PVC market continues to be weak due to factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [28] - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern is conducive to inventory accumulation in August. [30] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton. [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Cautiously bearish. [33][34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton. [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Cautiously bullish. [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the range of [4720 - 4770] for TA01. [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton. [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Cautiously bearish. [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the range of [4370 - 4410] for EG01. [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas methanol supply increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Bearish. [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. Focus on the range of [2368 - 2397] for MA01. [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton. [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Cautiously bullish. [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 due to the possible autumn fertilizer peak and export speculation. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1760] for UR01. [51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low levels; for soybean oil, the bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,534 yuan/ton, up 1.49%, and 9,620 yuan/ton at night, up 0.90%; the soybean oil main contract was 8,548 yuan/ton during the day, down 0.16%, and remained the same at night; the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,852 yuan/ton during the day, up 0.46%, and 9,886 yuan/ton at night, up 0.35%. The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,523 ringgit/ton during the day, up 1.00%, and 4,566 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.15%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was 53.29 cents/pound during the day, up 0.11% [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 232,837 lots, with an increase of 114,971 lots, and the open interest was 148,929 lots, a decrease of 23,676 lots; the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 146,569 lots, an increase of 84,495 lots, and an open interest of 191,498 lots, a decrease of 30,549 lots; the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 44,996 lots, a decrease of 21,431 lots, and an open interest of 46,810 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,110 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [3] - **Basis**: The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton; that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 262 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 108 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil main contracts was 242 yuan/ton; that between soybean oil and palm oil main contracts was - 1,068 yuan/ton; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 32 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 26 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - According to the data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4] - SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 was 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase compared to the same period last month [6] - The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday morning showed that as of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and the same period last year. The flowering rate of soybeans was 95%, up from 91% the previous week, higher than 94% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The pod - setting rate of soybeans was 82%, up from 71% the previous week, higher than 80% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with different levels of strength classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]

Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - **Soybean One**: It will fluctuate [2][12] - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - **Sugar**: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - **Eggs**: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - **Pigs**: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - **Peanuts**: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - **News**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - **News**: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - **News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - **News**: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - **Spot Market**: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is unstable. The supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline of overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,971 dollars/ton, down 0.50% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 62,225 tons, up 0.71% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 30,595 lots, down 6.15%; the position was 49,496 lots, down 3.34% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Pre - maintenance smelters are gradually resuming production. For secondary lead, scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Terminal demand has not improved significantly [1]. - **Industry News**: An East - China large secondary lead smelter plans to stop production for 1 month, expected to affect August secondary refined lead output. Dongying Xinsanyuan's 200,000 - ton lead - acid battery environmental utilization project has determined the winning bidder [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,777 dollars/ton, down 0.70% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 32,538 tons, up 62.53% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 80,217 lots, down 3.61%; the position was 69,630 lots, down 8.80% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In August, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising. Downstream demand is mainly consuming existing inventories, but some terminal demand has increased due to concerns about zinc price increases [1]. - **Industry News**: Indian Zinc (HZL) plans to build a zinc tailings re - processing plant in Rajasthan and expand its metal (zinc + lead) production capacity [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations. It is necessary to wait for the clarity of peak - season demand. The support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 yuan and 3160 yuan respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading strategy suggests shorting Iron Ore 2601 on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3]. Coke Industry - There is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price hikes. The coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities, but the excessive premium and rising coal prices may have fully exhausted the previous positive expectations [5]. Coking Coal Industry - Considering the pre - parade production restrictions of Hebei steel mills, the molten iron output in August may drop to around 236 tons per day. The speculative strategy suggests taking profits and waiting, and the arbitrage strategy recommends going long on coking coal and shorting iron ore [3][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3450 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts showed mixed changes, with the 05 - contract up 12 yuan to 3314 yuan/ton, the 10 - contract down 1 yuan to 3188 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract up 2 yuan to 3269 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China rose 10 yuan to 3460 yuan/ton, in North China fell 10 yuan to 3420 yuan/ton, and in South China remained unchanged at 3450 yuan/ton. Futures contracts also showed increases [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan to 3368 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 27 yuan to 3192 yuan/ton. Profits for rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2 to 240.7, and the output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, with growth rates of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5, a decrease of 0.3%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, an increase of 0.2% [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2, a 5.5% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5, a 0.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.1 to 10.5, a 25.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. Rebar's apparent demand decreased by 20.9 to 189, a 9.9% decrease, while hot - rolled coil's apparent demand increased by 8.2 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different iron ore powders also increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 36.5, a 3.9% increase, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 to 20.5, a 6.8% decrease [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The monthly national iron output decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0, a 1.5% decrease [3]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7, a 4.0% increase [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.2 to 13819.27, a 0.1% increase, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4, a 1.4% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade I wet - quenched coke increased by 52 to 1399, a 3.9% increase, and the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - Grade I wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts showed increases [5]. - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. Coking coal futures contracts also showed increases [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.2% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5].

8月18日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报5103.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PVC主力最高触及5119.00元，下方探低5038.00元，跌幅达1.33%附近。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中辉期货表示，主力换月，印度公布最新反倾销税，中国出口优势减弱，社会库存连续8周累库，仓单 继续大幅增加，关注成本端焦煤动态。上游开工继续提升，本周君正、中泰等多套装置计划检修，预计 周产量下滑。8月新产能陆续释放，内外需求淡季，出口签单周环比走弱，产业链累库压力仍存。策 略：空单持有。V【5050-5250】。 五矿期货分析称，基本面上企业综合利润位于年内高位，估值压力较大，检修量偏少，产量位于历史高 位，短期多套装置投产，下游方面国内开工五年期低位水平，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期 可能存在抢出口，成本端电石回落，烧碱反弹，整体估值支撑进一步走弱。整体而言，供强需弱且高估 值的现实下，基本面较差，需要观察后续出口是否超预期扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复， 建议观望。 瑞达期货（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - **Basic Logic**: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5043 - 5151. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [9][12][13]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 167 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a 3.68% decrease, and the ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a 1.14% decrease. The social inventory was 492,800 tons, a 2.49% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises was 5.4 days, a 3.57% decrease, which is a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which is a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a 1.67% increase, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a 0.28% decrease. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a 0.10 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a 0.869 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a 4.06 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a 0.429 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 8.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 10.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,680.05 yuan/ton, with a profit decrease of 0.00% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the base price, the East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The report shows the price and volume trend chart of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the spread of the main contract, presenting the spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Related Factors - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and other data trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit, double - ton spread, and other data of the calcium carbide method and the chlorine - alkali industry [27][29][31][33][36]. - **Supply Trend**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and other data trends of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method from 2018 to 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: The report shows the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and other data trends of PVC from 2019 to 2025, as well as the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and other data related to PVC demand, and the social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, infrastructure investment, and other macro - demand - related data [44][46][48][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows the data trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: The report shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [63].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with multiple factors affecting supply, demand, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral [4]. - Basis: Spot price is 14,750, basis is - 1,155, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, which is a bearish factor [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period, which is a bullish factor [29]. - Tire industry exports are falling, which is a bearish factor [32]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, which is a bearish factor [23][26]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 15 [8]. - The basis weakened on August 15 [35]. - **Inventory** - Exchange inventory has increased recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Qingdao area did not have seasonal inventory reduction [6].