1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [2][3]. - PP has insufficient driving force, and the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market lacks obvious driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period. Due to new maintenance plans of some enterprises and extended overall maintenance time, the capacity utilization rate decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 11.41%. The inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 484,280 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [3]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 199, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based and coal - based production increased by 220 and 132 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The costs of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production decreased by 92, 93, and 64 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE changed compared with the previous period [3]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [3]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 780,800 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, and the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec decreased by 3.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal industries such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stockpiling stage in advance. The average operating rate of CPP sample enterprises remained the same as last week [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 695,500 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.45%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 431,000 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 10,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.27%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene ports decreased by 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 54, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production declined. The average weekly import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 243.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.18 yuan/ton from last week, a month - on - month increase of 15.34% [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [4]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - The report provides a summary of the main weekly data of PP and LLDPE, including futures prices, spot prices, raw material prices, basis, inventory, and operating rates, showing their changes compared with last week [6]. 3.4 PE Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, China's PE production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. Some enterprises had new maintenance plans, and the overall maintenance time was extended [3]. - Demand: The demand for PE downstream products decreased, and the operating rates of some products such as agricultural films and packaging films declined. In November, imports increased month - on - month [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE producers decreased, and the social sample warehouse inventory increased slightly. The inventory was transferred smoothly from producers to downstream [3]. - Cost: Energy price cuts led to a decrease in production costs [24]. - Profit: The profit of PE production was lower than the same period last year [27]. - Import and Export: PE exports were better than the same period last year [31]. 3.5 PP Fundamental Changes - Capacity and Production: This week, China's PP production increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, but the port inventory was lower than the same period last year [49][57]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand for PP was divergent, and the operating rates of different products changed differently [68]. - Production Profit: The production profit of PP was similar to that of last year [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply in the Middle East is tight, the domestic PDH operation rate remains high, and the demand supports the market. The domestic port inventory is decreasing. Recently, the EIA C3 inventory has turned to decline, the domestic civil LPG price has risen, and with the increase in risk premium and contract price, the PG price still shows a wide - range volatile and upward trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy Product Price Monitoring - Various energy products have different price changes. For example, the current price of LPG is 4137 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a weekly decline of 1.99%, a monthly increase of 0.93%, and an annual decline of 8.03% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commercial volume was about 518,700 tons (a 0.12% increase). Among them, the civil LPG commercial volume was 216,500 tons (a 0.14% decrease), the industrial LPG was 189,300 tons (a 0.11% decrease), and the ether - after C4 was 167,100 tons (a 0.12% decrease). The LPG arrival volume last week was 540,000 tons (a 2.08% increase). In Xinjiang, enterprise out - put increased, while in Shandong, some enterprises reduced device loads or used resources internally [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH devices are operating at a high load, but the device profit loss is intensifying. The propane purchase demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there are news of device reduction, and the expected operating rate will gradually decline, and the propane chemical demand will fall. MTBE profit is in loss, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slows down, the domestic export window closes, and most orders have been executed, which restricts the civil LPG price trend [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 156,700 tons (a 1.20% decrease), and the port inventory was 2,027,800 tons (a 4.89% decrease). The low - supply situation of refineries continues, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the shipment of manufacturers in many places is smooth, so the storage capacity rate continues to decline. The port arrival volume has a slight increase but is still at a low level, the import resources are insufficiently replenished, and the inventory still shows a downward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is 288.80 yuan/ton in East China, 763.60 yuan/ton in South China, and 196.60 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume is 5977 lots, a decrease of 36 lots, and the lowest deliverable area is Shandong [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [not fully provided in the text]. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are also [not fully provided in the text] [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [not fully provided in the text] (a 3.35% decrease), and the PG secondary - to - primary month spread is - 242 yuan/ton (a 26.04% increase). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price is firm, the crude oil shows a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in the past three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed weak labor demand. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group have implemented a restructuring. Trump's remarks have led to repeated fermentations of risk events in the US - Venezuela, Middle East, and Russia - Ukraine regions, greatly increasing the volatility of crude oil prices and driving up the price fluctuations of oil - chemical products [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive arbitrage, PG3 - 4 reverse arbitrage, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market of energy and chemical products is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most products face downward pressure due to factors like supply overhang, seasonal weak demand, or geopolitical easing [1][3][7]. - Some products show a game between weak reality and strong expectation, such as methanol, where the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, but there are expectations for future changes [3]. - For fertilizers like urea, although there are some positive factors like export and spring fertilization expectations, the downstream demand in the festival season is weakening, and the supply pressure is rising [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 16, WTI rose 0.44%, Brent rose 0.58%, and SC fell 2.81%. As of January 9, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [10][11]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude oil inventory and inventory of US crude oil and refined products. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle [1][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Pay attention to non - OPEC+ production changes. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but it is under pressure in the medium - and long - term. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [14]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,144 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [16][17]. - **Core Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 lots [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Focus on the range of PG [4,100 - 4,200] [19]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price and related data changed. The L05 basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Core Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. In 2025, from January to November, Iran accounted for 8.7% of China's imports. The shutdown ratio increased to 14%, and production is expected to increase slightly [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of L [6,650 - 6,800] [23]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price and related data changed. The PP05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Core Logic**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and the supply is slightly increasing. It will fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. The supply and demand are weak, and the demand is in the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of PP [6,450 - 6,600] [27]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price and related data changed. The V05 basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [29][30]. - **Core Logic**: The social inventory is increasing at a high level. Although there is an expectation of rush - exporting in the short - term, the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The domestic operation rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of V [4,700 - 4,900] [31]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price and related data changed. The TA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [32]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - end PX supply and demand are in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation from January to February, but the expectation is positive from the perspective of production and demand [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for TA05. Focus on the range of TA05 [5,020 - 5,120] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price and related data changed. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [35]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic device load has increased. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February. It lacks upward driving force and follows the cost to fluctuate [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3,730 - 3,820] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, and the East China basis strengthened [40]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operation rate has declined from a high level. The overseas devices are slightly under - loaded. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January. The demand is slightly weakening. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Close long positions. Focus on the range of MA05 [2,225 - 2,285] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract price and related data changed. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 31 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side operation rate is rising, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, but the downstream demand is entering the festival off - season. There is a ceiling and a floor for the price under relevant policies [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, the supply pressure is rising, and the demand is seasonally weak. Focus on the range of UR05 [1,780 - 1,810] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the NG main contract closed at 3.128 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.26% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price and other prices changed [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit increased. The US natural gas rig count decreased [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, although the demand has support, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [3.355 - 3.991] [50]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the BU main contract closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, down 1.17% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [52][53]. - **Core Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain, the raw material is tight, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The profit has decreased, the supply has increased, and the inventory has risen [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the range of BU [3,100 - 3,200] [55]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price and related data changed. The FG05 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Core Logic**: The enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level, and the market is weakly oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, the profit of three processes has turned negative, and the weak demand suppresses the upside [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of FG [1,080 - 1,130] [59]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price and related data changed. The SA05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [61][62]. - **Core Logic**: The production enterprise operation rate has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillation. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [63]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of SA [1,180 - 1,230] [63].

Report Date - The report is dated January 19, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report focuses on the pig market, waiting for the confirmation of peak - season demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 13,060 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 12,010 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 215 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2605 is 12,260 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 90 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2607 is 12,885 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Pig 2603 is 133,132 lots, an increase of 75,178 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 168,526 lots, an increase of 7,459 lots; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 28,571 lots, an increase of 11,932 lots, and the open interest is 97,515 lots, a decrease of 888 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 6,100 lots, an increase of 2,512 lots, and the open interest is 44,276 lots, an increase of 346 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,170 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2605 is 920 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2607 is 295 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton. The spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short positions are recommended on price rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of news [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and profit. It also reports on relevant macro and industry news and evaluates the trend strength of both products [2][4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,605 yuan/ton, with a volume of 281,253 lots and an open interest of 238,869 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 50,200 yuan/ton, with a volume of 21,717 lots and an open interest of 46,220 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium against different benchmarks showed various changes, while polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - investment was +5150 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material was 54850 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were - 2526.5 yuan/ton and - 5749 yuan/ton respectively. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 10.4 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 55.5 million tons, enterprise inventory was 20.8 million tons, and total industry inventory was 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 32.1 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions were provided, showing little change overall [2] - **Photovoltaic - Related Products**: The prices and profit conditions of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and EVA in the photovoltaic industry were presented, with some products showing price changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 14, 2026, South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding announced that its subsidiary OCI ONE's 2.7GW silicon wafer factory in Vietnam had started production. The factory was acquired from Chinese photovoltaic enterprise Boda Xinneng in October 2025, with OCI ONE holding 65% of the shares. Currently, the factory is in the initial stage of capacity ramp - up and has not entered the shipping or delivery stage [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish view; Polysilicon trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both domestic Shanghai rubber futures and synthetic rubber futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday. The Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) are expected to be weak in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, while the synthetic rubber futures (BR2603) also have a similar outlook [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With Thailand and Cambodia's armistice, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. China's Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, but Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, resulting in some production facilities reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the volatile and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has increased. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on the night of last Friday [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月19日08时25分 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹产量下降，整体库存继续回落，螺纹表观需求环比出现较大幅度的反弹 ，五大品种表观需求整体反弹，库存下降， 产量基本维持不变。目前市场整体处于消费淡季，表需的好转或主要因年末抢工期导致 ，或并不具备很强的持续性，短期钢厂产量仍有可能延续下 降的趋势。整体来看，表观需求的好转对期价有一定的支撑 ，央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3163 | 3 | 0.09% | 19 | 0.60% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3315 | 8 | 0.24% | 21 | ...

Group 1 - Methanol futures main contract closed at 2239 CNY/ton as of January 16, 2026, with a weekly decline of 0.27% and an increase in open interest by 11,103 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The average processing range for PTA in China was 336.2 CNY/ton as of January 7, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.23% [2] - The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 74.2%, up by 0.35% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production reaching 1.4312 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - Dongwu Futures indicated that ongoing unrest in Iran and escalating external conflicts will continue to add risk premiums to methanol, with market participants debating geopolitical risks and reduced imports [4] - Ningzheng Futures reported that domestic methanol production is rising while downstream demand is declining, leading to a significant reduction in methanol port inventories, primarily due to low unloading volumes [4] - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with port inventories decreasing but overall market performance remaining weak [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The global soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, and China's domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline. The inventory of soybean oil in coastal oil mills is in a seasonal de - stocking channel, but the absolute level is still higher than the historical average. The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has strong support below 8,500 yuan due to production decline and export improvement in Malaysia. The Indonesian B50 policy suspension is a short - term negative, and the policy of confiscating illegal plantations may tighten long - term supply. For rapeseed oil, the market expects the Sino - Canadian trade relationship to ease, and attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment [8][9]. - **Corn**: The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' selling intentions and port inventory. The demand side includes feed and deep - processing demand. Overall, the supply - demand relationship may remain tight, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price of the 2603 contract may also follow the spot price and be strong [77][78]. - **Pigs**: The supply side shows that the pig出栏 is expected to increase slightly in the short - to - medium term, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate is relatively high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA January report is bearish for US soybeans, with increased ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, putting pressure on the market. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been rising due to factors such as decreased laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. However, the de - capacity process is tortuous, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. - **Cotton**: The USDA monthly report is relatively positive for the global cotton market. The domestic cotton market is in a wide - range volatile adjustment stage in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season [200][201]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of various oil contracts showed different degrees of increase. The USDA's soybean production data was higher than expected, and China's continuous purchase of US soybeans provided some support to the market, but the upcoming Brazilian harvest may weaken China's demand for US soybeans [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has support below 8,500 yuan, and attention should be paid to the policy changes in Indonesia and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship for rapeseed oil [8][9]. 3.1.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis also changed accordingly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [17]. - **Domestic Oilseed Supply**: The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills increased, and the soybean crushing volume also increased. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports was relatively high, and the estimated arrival volume in January was about 7.597 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost stagnant, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports was about 120,000 tons [22][27][28]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In January, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased, and the export volume increased. Indonesia's B50 policy was postponed, and Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory were expected to change in 2026 [30][31]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds continued to reduce net long positions in soybeans for the fifth week, net - bought Chicago soybean oil for the first time in five weeks, and continued to net - sell Chicago soybean meal for the sixth week [41]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The corn prices in the north port, northeast production area, and sales area increased, while the prices in the north China region continued to fluctuate. The increase in prices did not reduce the demand, and the downstream was in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period [44]. - **Futures Market**: As of January 15, the main 2603 contract of Dalian corn closed at 2,295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton, or 1.26% [44]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average, with the northeast being faster than the same period last year and the north China and northwest being slower. The port inventory decreased [46][47][49]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The supply of wheat was stable, but the feed substitution demand was weak due to the lack of price advantage [50]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In November, the import of some grains increased, and the import of corn and other grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was relatively high, and the import volume may continue to increase in the future [52][62]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The feed enterprises' inventory increased, and the pig inventory was expected to drive the feed demand to be good [63][69]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The corn starch industry's opening rate decreased, and the production profit was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and there was still a certain demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival [71][72]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area, yield, and total output increased, and the consumption also increased. The market supply and demand were relatively tight, and the price had strong support [75][76]. 3.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The supply side may see a slight acceleration in the grain - selling rhythm before the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is still low. The substitute grains' import advantage is increasing. The demand side has a demand for inventory replenishment, but the profit of the breeding and deep - processing industries is not good. The overall supply - demand relationship is tight, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions [79]. Pigs 3.3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The pig price continued to rise this week, with the supply side showing pressure - barring and weight - gaining, and the demand side having limited increase in slaughter volume due to high purchase costs [81]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 of pig futures fluctuated and rose, with a closing price of 11,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2% [82]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The price of binary sows increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm was average. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change according to the sow inventory data [89][90][93]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The price of piglets increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change in the medium term [102][103]. - **Short - Term Supply**: The large - pig inventory decreased, and the proportion of large - pig inventory increased due to pressure - barring and second - fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [105][106]. - **Current Supply**: The actual pig出栏 in December was close to the plan, and the planned出栏 in January decreased. The average slaughter weight increased slightly [113][114]. - **Import Supply**: In November, the pork import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to November also decreased [120]. - **Second - Fattening Demand**: The second - fattening showed sporadic entry, and the cost increased with the rising pig price [122]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate decreased, and the slaughter volume increased year - on - year in November. The opening rate is expected to remain weakly volatile [126]. 3.3.3 Later Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to have a slight increase in pig出栏, and the second - fattening pressure is still high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should reduce hedging short positions with the出栏 [130]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, the coastal soybean meal price was slightly weaker than a week ago [133]. - **Futures Market**: The US soybean main contract was weak this week. The USDA January report was bearish, and the Brazilian soybean harvest was expected to be abundant. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. 3.4.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA January report showed that the US soybean planting area decreased, the yield remained high, and the ending inventory increased. The Brazilian soybean planting was basically completed, and the Argentine soybean planting rate was 93.9%. The weather in Brazil was relatively normal, while the rainfall in Argentina was insufficient [136][137][138]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US soybean export volume increased, and the net sales also increased. The US - China trade agreement may affect future soybean purchases [146]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean pressing volume and opening rate decreased, and the soybean import volume and inventory changed. The future import soybean arrival will enter a relatively off - season [153][154][156]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the transaction volume increased this week due to the potential risk of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter [160][163]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal increased, and the 3 - 5 spread continued to widen [164]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The egg spot price has been rising since late December, mainly due to the decrease in laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. The price increase is expected to be higher than expected, but the de - capacity process is tortuous [173]. - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price maintains the current trend, the futures price may rebound, but it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history but is gradually decreasing. The replenishment momentum is weak, and the future laying hen inventory is likely to further decrease [174][176]. - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price increased, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a low level but improved [179]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume decreased, the culling age was delayed slightly, and the culled hen price increased but was still at a low level compared with the same period last year [184]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [190]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The external market showed a slight recovery, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated widely. The macro - economic situation and domestic policies had an impact on the market. The domestic spot market had different trading situations, and the overseas market's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [198][199][200]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton enters a wide - range volatile adjustment stage, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive [200][201]. 3.6.2 Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries' Situation**: The USDA January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with a decrease in beginning inventory, production, and ending inventory, and an increase in trade volume and consumption [202]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US cotton net signing and shipment volume changed, and the signing progress was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [208]. - **Textile Enterprises' Operation**: The cotton inventory, yarn inventory, and fabric inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the yarn and fabric load indexes changed slightly [211]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The spot basis of cotton increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [223]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The non - commercial net position of cotton increased, and the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [225].