华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望 2026 年工业硅行情，整体估值相对较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端无亮点，若原料价格上涨或出现政策扰动，工业硅或有阶段 性行情。预计 2026 年工业硅盘面价格在 8000-11500 元/吨，需重点跟踪政策相关影响。 展望 2026 年：供应端产能过剩仍较严重，预计消费端难有较大亮点，但行业通过自律减产，以及限价等措施对供应端进行调控，预 计产量将控制在一定范围内，整体过剩幅度有限。预计 2026 年多晶硅盘面波动区间在 4.5-6.5 万元/吨。 基本面无亮点 仍需关注政策扰动引发行情 新能源&有色组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 期货研究报告 ｜工业硅多晶硅年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the wind power, lithium battery, and energy storage sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and government support [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" initiative led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to promote healthy competition and stabilize prices in the industry [5][15]. - The lithium battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth driven by increasing demand and government support for rational competition [15][16]. - The wind power sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, supported by stable bidding prices and a favorable demand outlook for offshore wind projects [1][6][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines remains high, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6]. - Shanghai's government is accelerating the construction of offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating a strong demand outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [13][14]. Lithium Batteries - The MIIT held a meeting to discuss the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the rejection of irrational competition [15][16]. - The report maintains a positive view on the midstream material segment of the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating a favorable market environment [15]. Energy Storage - Fluence's Q4 2025 earnings call indicated a positive trend, with AI-driven power shortages translating into substantial energy storage orders [18][19]. - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers, driven by the need for flexible interconnection and backup power solutions [19]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The NDRC has reiterated the importance of hydrogen energy in enhancing power system regulation, with new policies expected to support the development of green hydrogen projects [20][21]. - The report notes that Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen policy has improved project economics, allowing for excess electricity to be sold to the grid, which is crucial for project viability [21][22]. Photovoltaics - In October, new photovoltaic installations increased by 30% month-on-month to 12.6 GW, with expectations for total installations to reach 280-300 GW for the year [23][25]. - The report suggests bottom-fishing opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in companies involved in high-efficiency modules and innovative technologies [25][24]. Grid and Power Equipment - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the ultra-high voltage (UHV) equipment sector, with a record 16.5 billion yuan in contracts awarded [29][30]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for UHV projects, with several key projects expected to be approved in 2026 [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].

Group 1 - The company is shifting from a reliance on large B2B clients in the restaurant sector to a "selective supermarket customization" strategy, collaborating deeply with retailers like Sam's Club, Walmart, and Hema to launch customized products [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue from supermarket channels reached 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, with this model becoming a clear new performance engine due to low costs, rapid development, and high premiums [1] - The company is adopting a product-driven approach, focusing on high-margin, high-value consumer products to stimulate the existing market and lead consumption trends, while also expanding into the frozen baking sector through acquisitions [1] Group 2 - The company is implementing a "de-involution" strategy, emphasizing "not engaging in unprofitable activities" and replacing "cost reduction" with "quality improvement" to optimize market competition [1] - The company has established a total cost leadership advantage through supply chain, logistics, and flexible production, with raw material and logistics costs below industry levels, supported by 12 production bases for flexible capacity allocation [1] - The company has formed a comprehensive distribution matrix involving distributors, specialty channels, and new retail/e-commerce to effectively diversify risks and drive growth [1] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.944 billion, 17.338 billion, and 18.836 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.4%, +8.7%, and +8.6% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.419 billion, 1.621 billion, and 1.789 billion for the same period, with a year-on-year change of -4.5%, +14.2%, and +10.4% respectively [2] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2024, with a first-time coverage rating of "buy" [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [10][17] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting on November 28, focusing on the "anti-involution" in the power and energy storage battery industry, emphasizing the need to enhance the lithium battery sector [4][7] - High-level attendance at the meeting indicates strong potential for subsequent actions and decisions [5][6] - The meeting addressed critical issues such as production operations, technology research and development, market competition, and intellectual property protection, highlighting the pain points in the industry [7] - MIIT plans to introduce targeted policies to mitigate irrational competition and promote a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [8] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The MIIT meeting included representatives from major companies in the lithium battery sector, indicating a significant focus on addressing industry challenges [4][6] - The discussion centered on the overcapacity issues caused by blind expansion in the lithium battery materials industry over the past two years [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that most sub-sectors of lithium battery materials are expected to achieve orderly expansion without significant overcapacity in the coming years [8] - Certain sub-sectors with low profitability and long payback periods may see price increases [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in global energy storage, power, and consumer batteries such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others [8] - Specific companies to watch for price increases include those in lithium iron phosphate, copper and aluminum foil, separators, and electrolytes [8]

Group 1 - Jia Yueting has established a second irrevocable trust in the U.S. to accelerate the repayment of debts in China, with assets sourced from 50% of shares granted through FF's equity incentive and 50% of approximately 7% shares in Nasdaq-listed AIXC [3][4] - FF has officially become the controlling shareholder of AIxCrypto, which has recently changed its name and stock code to AIXC, with a market capitalization of approximately $13.41 million as of November 28 [3] - Jia Yueting plans to reinvest the remaining 50% of assets into FF to support its EAI flywheel business and expedite debt repayment [4] Group 2 - The "one-price" model for ride-hailing services has faced criticism from drivers due to fixed pricing that does not account for real-time changes in duration and distance, leading to lower earnings for drivers, especially in non-first-tier cities [4] - The animated film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of 1.54 billion yuan, setting a record for single-day viewership in China's animation history [4] Group 3 - XPeng Motors has reported that a controversial low-quality video circulating on social media was generated by AI technology, and the company has filed a police report against the malicious use of AI to damage its brand image [7] - The number of Chinese tourists traveling to Japan has significantly decreased, with a 56% increase in flight cancellations from China to Japan compared to the previous month, leading to concerns in Japan's tourism industry [10] Group 4 - Shanghai Lego Land has welcomed over 1 million visitors, setting a record for the fastest Lego park to reach this milestone globally, with plans for a second phase of expansion [10] - The AI industry is expected to become more monopolistic, with companies like Google and Nvidia potentially reaching market capitalizations of $10 trillion [11][11] Group 5 - Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google, has donated over $1.1 billion worth of Alphabet stock, primarily to a nonprofit organization he founded, focusing on neurological disease research and climate change solutions [13] - Tesla's performance in the Indian market has been underwhelming, with only about 100 vehicles sold in over two months since its launch [14] Group 6 - Yushu Technology has completed its IPO counseling work, indicating readiness for IPO submission, focusing on high-performance consumer and industrial robots [16] - Shanghai Aoyi Technology has completed over 100 million yuan in Series B3 financing, while He Shan Technology has secured several billion yuan in financing across two rounds [16][16] Group 7 - The EU new car sales have seen a steady increase, with electric and hybrid vehicles leading the market, while traditional gasoline and diesel vehicle sales have declined significantly [19] - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to grow by approximately 50% in 2026, driven by rapid expansion in the energy storage sector [20] Group 8 - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with a 30.4% increase in job postings related to the pet industry, driven by the rising number of pet owners among the post-2000 generation [20] - Beijing's AI industry is expected to exceed 450 billion yuan in scale by 2025, with a 25.3% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [20]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to shift from a broad market beta approach to a more refined selection of convertible bonds, focusing on four main themes: technology growth, energy-driven investments, anti-involution, and low-volatility bottom positions [1] - In 2025, the convertible bond market showed a strong performance with the CSI Convertible Bond Index achieving a cumulative increase of 16.50%, while the high-price low-premium index surged by 21.48% [7][16] - The report identifies three significant trends in the convertible bond market for 2025: the scarcity of bottom-position convertible bonds, the indexation of allocation tools, and a valuation logic that is increasingly equity-oriented [16][17] Group 2 - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to remain under pressure, with a notable decline in the total outstanding amount, which decreased by 22.49% compared to the beginning of the year [17][24] - The report forecasts that the valuation of convertible bonds will maintain a high level in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market, particularly due to policy incentives and ongoing industrial policies in technology and high-end manufacturing [17][36] - The report suggests that the convertible bond market will continue to face challenges due to ongoing contraction, with large, high-rated, and highly liquid convertible bonds enjoying liquidity premiums due to their scarcity [17][20] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of convertible bond ETFs as a growing allocation tool for institutional investors, with the market size reaching 68.2 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total convertible bond market [12][31] - The investment logic in the convertible bond market has shifted from a focus on debt protection to an emphasis on equity upside, as indicated by the rising median prices and increased conversion premium rates [16][34] - The report outlines three strategic focuses for 2026: selecting convertible bonds that are not subject to early redemption, strategically participating in new bond issuance windows, and identifying bonds with strong conversion intentions [17][36]

11月最后一个交易日，化工板块继续发力。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天红盘震 荡，收盘涨1.41%，单日成交额9718万元，至此月线强势六连阳，多头趋势坚挺。 值得注意的是，今年以来，或受益于"反内卷"行情，化工板块表现显著占优。数据显示，截至今日收 盘，化工ETF（516020）标的指数细分化工指数年内累计涨幅已达到27.76%，显著优于同期上证指数 （16.02%）、沪深300指数（15.04%）等A股主要指数。 银河证券指出，预计2026年Brent原油价格运行区间为60-70美元/桶，成本端有望逐步止跌企稳。2024年 以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收 缩。"十五五"规划建议稿"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打 开。我们认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估 值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 | | 证券简称 序号 证券代码 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 | ...

本周，沪指累涨1.4%，深成指、创指更为强势，周涨3.56%、4.54%，三大指数集体终结周线两连阴。 从月度来看，11月沪指开启4000点拉锯战，单月下跌1.67%，科技股波动较大，深成指、创指各跌 2.95%、4.23%。 展望后市，财信证券认为，短期内，继续等待放量长阳或者其他明确的回暖信号出现。预计12月中旬左 右，随着机构资金重新布局明年方向、美联储降息靴子落地。届时A股市场将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊有色、化工、国防军工等几个板块的交易和基本面情况。 11月最后一个交易日（11月28日），三大指数集体红盘收官，沪指涨0.34%报3888.6点，创指涨0.7%。 市场交投较为清淡，全天成交1.6万亿元，量能降至近4个月地量水平。 | 序号 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | --- | --- | | 1 159876 主 有色龙头ETF | 0.885 c 1.72% 0.06% 2335.55万 | | 2 516020 | 0.793 c 1.41% 0.19% 9718.70万 主 化工ETF | | 3 512810 主 国防军 ...