威廉姆斯还透露，美联储通过缩表已基本将银行准备金水平降至充足水平。达到这一门槛促使美联储重 启购债操作，即所谓的准备金管理购买。他指出，银行准备金必须随着银行需求逐步增加，以维持系统 稳定运行。 对于未来政策走向，威廉姆斯表示将等待并收集所有相关数据，目前判断下一次货币政策决定还为时过 早。他强调，将通胀降回2%目标水平至关重要，同时不能对就业市场造成不必要风险。威廉姆斯认 为，货币政策的重点在于平衡这些风险，确保经济回到稳健增长与价格稳定的轨道上。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日表示，美联储当前的货币政策立场恰当，为2026年经济发展做好了充分准 备。威廉姆斯在新泽西银行家协会活动中指出，联邦公开市场委员会已将略具限制性的政策立场向中性 方向推进。 威廉姆斯认为，近期就业市场逐步降温，劳动力市场风险有所上升，而通胀风险则相应减弱。他强调， 多项劳动力市场指标已回落至疫情前水平，当时的就业市场并未出现过热现象。据威廉姆斯观察，虽然 劳动力市场明显降温，但这一过程持续且渐进，尚未出现裁员激增等快速恶化迹象。 关 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed signals in the U.S. labor market, with November non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1][2] - The October non-farm payrolls were revised down significantly, indicating a loss of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to substantial layoffs in government sectors, which saw a reduction of 162,000 jobs in October and an additional 6,000 in November [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, marking the smallest annual increase since May 2021, reflecting a cautious hiring environment among businesses [2][4] Group 2 - Economists describe the current labor market as a state of "low layoffs, low hiring," with many companies hesitant to recruit due to the belief that tasks can be performed by artificial intelligence [2][3] - The delayed employment report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making in its upcoming January meeting, as the cooling labor market was a key factor in the recent interest rate cut [2][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of employment statistics, with the possibility that the Labor Department's estimates may overstate job growth by as much as 60,000 per month, suggesting a potential monthly loss of about 20,000 jobs since April [3][2]

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 格隆汇12月16日｜知名宏观策略师Simon White在周一发布的一份报告中则认为，人们没有理由怀疑黄 金的上涨趋势无法延续——尽管其涨幅可能放缓。不仅如此，随着通胀环境加剧推动实物资产需求扩 大，大宗商品也有望加入这场盛宴。White指出，"市场目前完全没有为通胀加速做好准备，但这可能正 是我们即将面临的情况。随着市场不仅对法定货币贬值风险进行对冲，还对金融体系本身的脆弱性进行 对冲，黄金、白银和其他贵金属已经带来了可观的回报。"White认为，明年大宗商品同样有望承担这一 角色。其上涨空间甚至可能远超黄金——因为即使只从规模庞大得多的股票和债券市场中撤出极小一部 分资金进行重新配置，也将如同将消防水带接入吸管般汹涌。如果说2025年属于黄金，那么2026年则极 可能将是大宗商品之年。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a significant decline in inflation by the first half of 2026 [1] - Bessent mentioned that President Trump is expected to announce a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair in early January, with one or two interviews possibly taking place this week [1] - Bessent highlighted that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett are both "very, very qualified" candidates for the Fed Chair position [1] Group 2 - Bessent emphasized the need for an open-minded Fed Chair who can challenge the notion that economic growth leads to inflation, stating that inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply [1] - Concerns were raised about Hassett's close relationship with Trump potentially undermining the Fed's independence, but Bessent refuted this claim, asserting that individuals have the autonomy to make decisions [1] - Bessent expressed worries about the Fed's status, describing it as "a non-elected institution that has lost trust" [1] Group 3 - In economic forecasts, Bessent predicts a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for 2025 and suggests that 2026 could be a prosperous year if the government remains operational [2] - He attributes current economic pressures to "Biden inflation" but anticipates relief for Americans by early 2026, with tax refunds expected to reach $100 billion to $150 billion in the first quarter of the following year [2] - Bessent links the decline in rental inflation to border security measures, stating that rental costs have decreased due to the closure of the U.S. border [3] Group 4 - Bessent mentioned that the Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariff issues in early January, confirming that there are multiple revenue sources beyond IEEPA tariffs [3] - He committed to reducing the budget deficit by "hundreds of billions" this year [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's monetary normalization is anticipated as a black swan event, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% [1][2][25] - This rate increase marks a significant change for the yen, reaching levels not seen since 1995, which could disrupt the global cheap funding environment [3][10] - Japan's core CPI has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 28 consecutive months, indicating a shift from deflation to inflation driven by wage increases in the service sector [7][9][12] Group 2 - The output gap in Japan has been positive for three consecutive quarters, suggesting that demand is exceeding supply, leading to a resurgence in consumer spending [11][12] - The current interest rates in Japan are significantly lower than those in the US, creating a mismatch with inflation rates, which could lead to market corrections [14][16] - The Japanese government has a debt of 1,333.6 trillion yen, with interest payments consuming 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about the impact of rate hikes on fiscal sustainability [21] Group 3 - A 25 basis point rate hike could lead to a significant tightening of global liquidity, affecting emerging markets and potentially causing capital outflows [44][50] - Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, and a shift in interest rates could accelerate the trend of selling US debt [41] - The anticipated rate hike could lead to a negative impact on high-valuation tech stocks globally, as liquidity conditions tighten [50] Group 4 - For Japanese banks, the rate hike is expected to improve net interest margins, with Mitsubishi UFJ Bank predicting a profit increase of 480 billion yen due to the rate change [53][54] - However, the real estate market, which has benefited from low mortgage rates, may face challenges as higher rates could lead to a decrease in new home transactions by 12% [56] - Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with increased borrowing costs, potentially leading to higher bankruptcy rates and unemployment [58]

费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森近日表示，她预期美国通胀将在未来一年有所缓和，但也同时对劳动力市场可能出现的进一步走弱风险提出了警告。 保尔森在一次商业论坛上发表了她的评估。她指出，目前她对美国劳动力市场疲软的担忧，要高于对通胀可能再度上行的顾虑。这部分源于她认为通胀有相 当大的可能性在进入新年后逐步回落。她同时提到，当前关税政策对商品价格的影响预计将在明年年中左右趋于消退。 在描述劳动力市场现状时，保尔森使用了"在弯曲，但并未折断"的比喻。她提醒，当前就业增长主要集中在医疗和社会服务等特定行业，更广泛领域的招聘 活动实则依然疲软。她总结道，美国劳动力市场目前尚可，但下行风险正在上升。 就在本周，美联储宣布了连续第三次降息，同时维持了其在二零二六年仅再加息一次的利率前景预测。此次利率决策会议出现了自二零一九年以来的首次三 张异议票，且异议来自不同方向，凸显了决策者们内部存在的显著分歧。政策声明中的措辞也出现了细微调整，暗示美联储官员们对于未来何时再次调整政 策的不确定性有所增加。 保尔森本人并非本年度的投票成员，但将在明年获得投票权。她表示，她依然认为当前的货币政策在某种程度上处于偏紧状态，不过近期的降息举措 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's monetary normalization is anticipated as a black swan event, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, marking a significant shift for the yen [2] - Japan's core CPI has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 28 consecutive months, indicating a departure from deflation [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows an upward trend, suggesting inflation is now driven by wage demands rather than just rising oil prices [6] Group 2 - The average wage increase in Japan reached 5.46%, the highest in 34 years, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing power and a potential for a positive economic cycle [9][10] - Japan's output gap has been positive for three consecutive quarters, reflecting a rare situation where demand exceeds supply [12] - The long-standing low-interest environment is mismatched with the emerging high-demand society, leading to potential economic adjustments [13] Group 3 - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,333 trillion yen, with interest payments consuming 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about the impact of rate hikes on fiscal sustainability [19] - The anticipated 25 basis point increase could add 3.3 trillion yen to annual interest expenses, highlighting the significant cost of normalization [20] - The slow pace of rate hikes reflects the need to test market tolerance amid rising inflation and debt concerns [21] Group 4 - The potential for a significant asset reallocation globally as Japan raises rates, with implications for U.S. Treasuries and emerging markets [40][44] - Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt, and a shift in interest rates could accelerate the trend of selling U.S. bonds [44] - Emerging markets could face severe consequences from capital outflows, reminiscent of past financial crises [49][51] Group 5 - For Japanese banks, a rate hike is beneficial, potentially increasing net profits significantly due to improved net interest margins [56] - However, the real estate market, which has relied on low mortgage rates, may face challenges as borrowing costs rise [58] - Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with increased financing costs, leading to higher bankruptcy rates and economic "cleansing" [61]

Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed strong optimism regarding the economic growth, projecting a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the year 2025, indicating a positive outlook for American workers in the coming year [2][3] - Inflation is expected to significantly decrease in the first half of 2026, along with a substantial drop in rental prices. Despite high price levels, the increase in real wages is anticipated to address these issues, improving purchasing power for American households [2][3] Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is expected in early January, with one to two interviews likely taking place this week. This appointment is crucial as it will influence U.S. monetary policy for the coming years [3] - The Treasury Secretary denied concerns regarding the independence of the new Federal Reserve Chair, stating that Trump has been straightforward about policy-related issues during the interviews. Both candidates, Walsh and Hassett, are considered highly qualified, countering claims that Hassett would lack influence at the Federal Reserve [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - On the fundamental raw material side, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrate remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would have a long - term impact on the copper smelting end, providing cost support [2]. - In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still relatively good, making up for some of the profit losses of smelters. The operating rate of smelters rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous overhauls, but the increase was only slight due to the tight raw materials [2]. - In terms of demand, boosted by macro expectations, copper prices were strong in the short term, but high prices inhibited the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who became more cautious, and social inventories increased slightly [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.25, a month - on - month increase of 0.1264, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The conclusion was to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 91,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,593.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 62.50 US dollars [2]. - The spread between adjacent months of the main contract was - 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 217,374.00 lots, an increase of 51,565.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,081.00 lots, a decrease of 1,852.00 lots; the LME copper inventory was 165,875.00 tons, a decrease of 25.00 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389.00 tons, an increase of 484.00 tons; the cancelled LME copper warrants were 65,400.00 tons, a decrease of 600.00 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,784.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 91,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 91,995.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400.00 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 48.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 4.39 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25.08 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 US dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 82,200.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 82,900.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000.00 tons, a decrease of 13,000.00 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 63,090.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78,150.00 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 78,591.00 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 213,000.00 million pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.87%, a decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.09%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 16.98%, a decrease of 0.0164%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, an increase of 0.1264 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's economic "report card" for November was released. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year. From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, among which manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November remained unchanged at 5.1% [2]. - Xi Jinping's important article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" was published in Qiushi Journal. The article pointed out that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security, and it is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long - term, sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026. It is expected that the US unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The risks in the labor market have increased, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027. The Fed is expected to actively use the standing repurchase facility to manage liquidity [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance poses unnecessary restrictions on the economy, and believes that after excluding "phantom inflation", the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target [2]