Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2840 and 2900. Factors such as the movement of US soybeans, high imports of soybeans in October, and the discount of spot prices are influencing the market. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production are suppressing the price [11]. - The market is focusing on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybeans and soybean meal [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation remains deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - **Bullish factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2870, with a basis of - 29, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 14, showing a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented, showing overall trends in global soybean supply and demand [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Similar to the global balance table, data from 2015 to 2024 are provided for the domestic market, reflecting the domestic soybean supply - demand situation [33]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - For soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. Others - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data on soybean and meal futures and spot prices from October 13 to 21 are provided, showing price trends [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: Data on warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from October 10 to 21 are presented, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Price**: The spot price of soybean meal is relatively stable, and the discount of spot price to futures has narrowed slightly [23]. - **US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans in 2024 and 2025 are detailed, including comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38][42]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Data on the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024 - 2025 are provided, including comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: Data from the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show changes in planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and other indicators [43]. - **Soybean Import and Export and Inventory**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October but increased year - on - year overall. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from the high level [44][46][47]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices are weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig - farming has recently worsened [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. The Fed's future expectations of interest rate cuts and halting balance sheet reduction, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, suggest a bullish stance. It is recommended to wait for price dips to establish long positions, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for different copper markets [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 21, 2025, the closing price was 85,400, up 20 from the previous day; trading volume was 104,758 hands, down 53,903; open interest was 231,226 hands, up 4,316; inventory was 37,678 tons, down 3,641; the basis was 330, up 80 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 21, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,596.5, down 116 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.22, down 6.87; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 96.56, down 2.55; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0593, up 0.091 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 21, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.9525, down 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 345,924, up 343 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper is difficult to procure, the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are initially rising, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for price dips to establish long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations has disrupted the upward rhythm of copper prices. Due to the expected future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions after the price pullback, and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread Situation**: The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. The LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and reasonable, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and reasonable. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper are positive and reasonable, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and reasonable. It is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in these spreads [9][10][12]. - **Inventory Situation**: The closure of the import window may limit domestic electrolytic copper imports, leading to an increase in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and social inventory compared to last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased. The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [19][22]. 3.2 Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce copper production in 2026. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and decreased compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate inventory in China increased [29]. - **Scrap Copper**: The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase domestic scrap copper production in October but reduce imports, resulting in a tight supply - demand expectation [32]. - **Blister Copper**: The production and import of domestic blister copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to the ignition of the smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry and the increase in the maintenance capacity of domestic smelters [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to factors such as production cuts in Congo - Kinshasa, maintenance in Japan, and production resumption in Indonesia [40]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared to last week. The processing fees of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [44][46]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [56][63]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper enameled wire increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [60][63]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The processing fees of Chinese brass plate and strip increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of copper plate and strip samples increased compared to last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [65][71][73]. - **Copper Foil**: The processing fees of Chinese lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil were flat or increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month [67][73]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tube samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [75][80]. - **Brass Rod**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rod samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [77][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. In the macro - aspect, attention should be paid to tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and the COMEX - LME spread. In the fundamental aspect, tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. High copper prices have a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure significant and demand weak. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes, downstream acceptance of high prices, and inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in a range - bound shock. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty pose constraints. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. Demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but has limited upward elasticity. The main contract is expected to range from 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand is weak. Considering the strong supply - side influence, attention should be paid to buying points when the macro - sentiment falls. The subsequent trend depends on the recovery of Myanmar's supply in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound. Macro risks have increased, and there is some positive news from the ore end. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The main contract is expected to range from 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply [14][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be strong in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro risks [17][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.01% to 85,630 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 31.75% to 3,570 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% month - on - month to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% week - on - week to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.10% to 20,930 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% month - on - month to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions showed an increasing trend [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% month - on - month to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 21,870 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 101.06 yuan/ton to - 4,429 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% month - on - month to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.36% to 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.08% to - 142.00 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month to 10,510 tons, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 63.90% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 122,100 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% month - on - month to 32,200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 3.93% week - on - week to 61,188 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.89% to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 87,260 tons, and the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.38% to 84,538 tons [17].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of tariffs and market strategies for the fourth quarter of 2025 - Discussion on the strategic value of China's rare earth resources Core Points and Arguments Market Conditions and Strategies - Short-term market volatility is heavily influenced by sentiment, with technical support levels being more critical than fundamentals [1][2] - Investors who have reduced positions may consider selectively buying quality structural assets, while those who have not should avoid hasty adjustments based on emotional market fluctuations [1][2] - The U.S.-China tariff negotiations may see short-term progress, but long-term uncertainties are increasing, with high tariffs being detrimental to both sides [1][2][3] - The current market liquidity is abundant, leading to a pursuit of scarce returns, which has resulted in localized inflation [1][5] Asset Performance and Allocation - In Q4, the focus for asset allocation is on gold, dividends, and growth assets, which have all seen a rise this year, breaking traditional asset pricing logic [1][4] - The performance of these asset classes is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, global decoupling, and central bank gold purchases [1][4] - The U.S. market shows a disparity between strong growth in the tech sector and weakness in other areas, exacerbated by the acceleration of AI investments [1][6] Credit Cycle and Economic Outlook - The applicability of the Merrill Lynch clock framework in China is limited due to significant policy expectations and evident disparities in economic performance [2][7] - Future asset rotation can be analyzed through the intensity of credit expansion in both government and private sectors, with a focus on indirect financing [2][8] - The credit cycles in the U.S. and China may diverge, with the U.S. potentially moving towards recovery while China may experience stagnation or slight slowdown [2][9] Export Dynamics and Trade Relations - China's exports have exceeded expectations, with a year-to-date growth rate of 6.1% in dollar terms, despite a nearly 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2][12][14] - The structure of China's exports is changing, with an increasing proportion of intermediate goods, which are essential for industrial production [2][12][13] - The strategic value of rare earth resources is highlighted, with China holding a dominant position in both reserves and the entire supply chain [2][21][22] Rare Earth Resources and Strategic Implications - China's rare earth resources account for 34% of global reserves, with a significant share in heavy rare earths [2][21] - Recent export control measures have enhanced China's control over rare earth resources, impacting global supply chains and U.S. companies [2][22] - The demand for high-performance permanent magnet materials is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of over 10% in the coming years [2][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current geopolitical landscape and the restructuring of the global dollar monetary system are influencing asset performance and investment strategies [1][4] - The potential for localized inflation due to abundant liquidity and the pursuit of scarce returns is a critical factor for investors to consider [1][5] - The implications of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, are significant, with price pressures observed due to tariffs [2][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macro factors include tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spreads. Fundamentals show tight copper ore supply, potential smelter production cuts, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. Mid - long term, supply - demand contradictions support price increases, but short - term price spikes may limit demand. The main contract's support is at 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak with supply pressure and low demand. Its price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract in the 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton range. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton range, supported by a warm macro - environment and healthy fundamentals [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is range - bound. Cost support is strong, but supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. Demand is moderately recovering. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [5]. Zinc - Supply is becoming more abundant from the zinc ore to zinc ingot end. Demand is lackluster. Macro factors support prices, but the upside is limited. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, while demand is weak. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by macro factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. Macro uncertainties exist, and the industry has high production and inventory. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Overseas risks are high, domestic policies are favorable, and demand is sluggish. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton range [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Supply - demand gaps are expected to widen in the peak season. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 84,775 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The import profit and loss is - 686 yuan/ton, up 435.77 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 68.07 million tons, up 3.11% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import profit and loss is - 2,531 yuan/ton, down 278.6 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 62.70 million tons, down 3.39% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.48 million tons, down 2.84% week - on - week [5]. - **Fundamentals**: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The import profit and loss is - 4,530 yuan/ton, down 70.80 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The galvanizing开工率 is 58.05%, up 11.22% week - on - week [8]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, down 3.89% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory is 5,691.0 tons, down 3.20% [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,350 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The futures import profit and loss is - 874 yuan/ton, up 451 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory is 34,418 tons, up 3.93% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory is 50.18 million tons, down 0.56% week - on - week [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread is - 400 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short - term observation recommended [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.55% at 2,672 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.9% at 3,155 yuan/ton during the day [1] - The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, with the FU and LU futures showing a weak trend. During the China - US tariff negotiation period, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable. Tightened supply in the Middle East and improved refinery demand have boosted the market, but the upward driving force and space are still limited and new variables are needed [1] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is operating weakly, with the external crack spread and monthly spread showing a downward trend. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and downstream bunker demand is weak. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a weak performance in the energy sector, and the FU and LU futures are affected. During the tariff negotiation period, oil price volatility may increase [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are acceptable, but the upward space is limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with increased supply and weak demand [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, short - term observation [2] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options) are not recommended [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The US dollar index rebounded near 100, and copper prices fluctuated weakly. Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data led to expectations of Fed monetary easing. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracted non - US copper to the US. - The shortage of copper mine supply is a key concern. Mines like Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and El Teniente have had disruptions, which will support copper prices in the medium - to - long term. Focus on demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations, with support at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices continued to decline, and the spot market was weak. With sufficient supply, high operating capacity, and increasing overseas supply, while demand was weak, the alumina market is expected to remain in surplus, with the main contract oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. - The center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum futures prices moved up, with a tight - balance fundamental situation. Macro - level factors are positive, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices oscillated with aluminum prices. Cost support was strong due to rising scrap aluminum prices. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, while demand showed a mild recovery. Inventory was increasing, and imports were limited. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton range [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited by factors such as TC and sulfuric acid prices. Demand was not outstanding. It is expected to maintain oscillations, with the main contract in the 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton range [7]. Tin - Tin prices were affected by supply and demand. Supply of tin ore was tight, and smelting processing fees were low. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, although some consumption was driven by AI and photovoltaics. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - level uncertainties, focus on the buying point when the macro - sentiment drops. The future trend depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel futures oscillated weakly. Macro - level factors were uncertain, including Sino - US tariffs and Fed policies. Spot nickel prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement increased. Nickel ore prices were firm, and nickel - iron prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel futures prices oscillated downward. Macro - level risks were amplified, and raw material prices provided cost support. Demand in the peak season did not materialize, and inventory pressure increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton range [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated strongly. The fundamental situation was in a tight - balance during the peak season. Production increased, demand was optimistic, and the entire industry chain continued to reduce inventory. It is expected to oscillate, with the price center in the 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.11% to 85990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.48% to 86160 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 20 yuan/ton. SMM wet - process copper rose 1.15% to 85895 yuan/ton, with a stable premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased 10.06% to 3567 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 10 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to 30 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 90 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and in August, imports decreased 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. The import copper concentrate index increased 0.44 to - 40.36 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 3.50% to 66.02 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased to 43.44%, and that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 18.56%. Social inventory in China increased 15.98% to 17.20 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.48% to 20900 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 0 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 15 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. In August, electrolytic aluminum imports decreased to 21.73 million tons, and exports decreased to 2.56 million tons. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, cables, sheets, foils, and primary aluminum alloys all decreased. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased 9.80% to 65.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% to 50.4 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable. The refined - scrap spreads in Foshan, Shanghai, etc. showed different changes. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 55 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. In August, primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 1.88% to 27.10 million tons, and scrap aluminum production increased 8.16% to 79.76 million tons. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased. Social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased 1.26% to 5.64 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.05% to 22210 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to - 55 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 4931 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton, and other monthly spreads remained stable [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased 4.17% to 60.01 million tons. In August, imports increased 43.30% to 2.57 million tons, and exports decreased 23.40% to 0.03 million tons. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide decreased. Social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased 15.35% to 16.31 million tons, and LME inventory increased 3.00% to 3.9 million tons [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased 0.14% to 282000 yuan/ton, and its premium remained stable. LME 0 - 3 premium decreased 70.98% to - 105.99 dollars/ton [9]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased 16.14% to - 14872.09 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.94 [9]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 430 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 250 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 200 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to 20 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased 0.11% to 10267 tons. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased 31.71% to 10510 tons, and the average operating rate decreased 31.77% to 43.60%. In September, Indonesian refined tin exports increased 50.00% to 4800 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.29% to 122100 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased 0.30% to 123300 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased 4.55% to - 203 dollars/ton, and the import profit/loss decreased 28.08% to - 1086 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 160 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 220 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 220 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - In China, refined nickel products increased 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased 3.00% to 17010 tons. SHFE inventory increased 1.75% to 29008 tons, social inventory increased 7.02% to 43694 tons, and LME inventory increased 0.48% to 243258 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased 0.38% to 12950 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased 7.77% to 515 yuan/ton [13]. Raw Material Price - The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore, South African chrome concentrate, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, and other raw materials showed different changes [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 25 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread remained at - 90 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 60 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In China, 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and in Indonesia, it increased 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. In August, stainless steel imports increased 60.48% to 11.72 million tons, exports increased 7.60% to 44.79 million tons, and net exports decreased 3.65% to 33.07 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased 6.93% to 50.46 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.79% to 8.45 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 73000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 70750 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased 0.12% to 828 dollars/ton [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 120 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2601 spread increased to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased 2.37% to 87260 tons, and battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased 4.77% to 67240 tons. In August, exports increased 0.70% to 383 tons. In October, production capacity increased 3.67% to 149820 tons, and the operating rate remained at 55%. Total inventory increased 0.38% to 94539 tons, downstream inventory increased 15.29% to 609999 tons, and smelter inventory decreased 19.16% to 32930 tons [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，市场等待新指引和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震荡等待 中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，需求短期 转淡和技术性震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面，短期 或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-12，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 4.盘面： ...

Market Overview - On October 14, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with major indices closing down by 0.62%, 2.54%, and 3.99% respectively, and a total market turnover of 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2] - The semiconductor sector saw a net outflow of 17.932 billion yuan, with stocks like Yandong Micro and Chipone falling over 11% [1][2] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, public utilities, and food and beverage showed resilience, with increases of over 2%, contrasting sharply with the declines in high-growth sectors like semiconductors and CPO [1][7] - The gold and silver futures market also experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices initially rising nearly 5% before settling at a 2.7% increase, while silver saw a similar pattern [6][8] Specific Company Impact - Wenta Technology, a key player in the semiconductor sector, faced a sharp decline, with its stock hitting the daily limit down for two consecutive days, reflecting investor concerns over its control of Nexperia due to a Dutch government order freezing assets [3][5] - The company held an investor meeting to reassure stakeholders that its core operations remain unaffected, although the loss of governance control may impact operational efficiency in the short term [5][12] Investment Sentiment - There is a growing trend of risk aversion among investors, leading to a shift from high-growth stocks to more stable, traditional assets [12][14] - Analysts suggest that the banking sector, particularly state-owned and regional banks, may become a preferred choice for risk-averse investors due to their stable earnings and attractive dividend yields [15][16] Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S.-China tariff negotiations are expected to influence market dynamics, with potential volatility as investors await clearer signals [17] - The banking sector is projected to show stable growth, with expected revenue growth of 0.6% and net profit growth of 0.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a resilient financial landscape [14][15]