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原油:中美联合声明公布 油价冲高回落
news flash· 2025-05-13 02:21
金十期货5月13日讯,昨天,随着中美贸易谈判结束,联合声明发布,市场体现出超预期利好,盘中原 油价格出现明显拉升,但是随后不断回落,将拉升的涨幅基本全部回吐完毕,市场气氛依然偏谨慎。卓 创资讯预计,在中美和谈之后,关注欧佩克和iea石油报告中关于石油需求的判断是否修正了上月报 告,以及即将进行的特朗普沙特中东之旅,短期维持区间震荡。 (卓创资讯) 原油:中美联合声明公布 油价冲高回落 ...
成本短期支撑仍在,中游库存去化幅度或下降
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 14:36
Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].
供应端变化有限,盘面震荡运行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has limited near - term pressure, with good US soybean export performance and reduced selling pressure in Brazil. However, the long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose due to high projected US soybean ending stocks and continued pressure in the South American market. - In the domestic market, the recent tight supply situation is gradually improving as the oil mill operating rate increases and soybean arrivals become clearer. - The macro - environment has a complex and limited impact on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to face some pressure, while the rapeseed meal market may see weakening demand and limited supply - side benefits[5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - The US soybean futures market showed a strong trend due to improved macro - conditions after China - US talks. The domestic futures market was mainly in shock, with soybean meal outperforming rapeseed meal. - For soybean meal futures, the contract 0105 closed at 2955, down 6; contract 09 at 2919, down 1. For rapeseed meal futures, contract 01 closed at 2330, down 15; contract 05 at 2485, up 1; contract 09 at 2563, down 2. - The basis of soybean meal in Tianjin was 420, up 40; in Dongguan, it was 220, down 130; in Zhangjiagang, it was 200, up 10; in Rizhao, it was 190, up 30. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong was - 63, up 42; in Guangdong, it was - 113, down 8; in Guangxi, it was - 123, down 8. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was - 132, up 28; the 9 - 1 spread was - 36, up 5; the 1 - 5 spread was 168, down 33. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 78, up 3; the 9 - 1 spread was 233, up 13; the 1 - 5 spread was - 155, down 16. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 852, down 18; between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 1039, down 111; between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 117, down 3[4]. Fundamental Analysis - International: As of the week ending May 1, US soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. The March crushing data was average, but overall demand was good. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of May 3 was 97.7%, higher than last year and the five - year average. The long - term US soybean ending stocks are expected to remain high due to large export pressure on new crops, and the South American market will continue to face pressure. - Domestic: As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, up 602,700 tons (12.7%) from last week and 1.1634 million tons (27.79%) from last year. Soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, up 19,100 tons (23.26%) from last week but down 458,000 tons (81.9%) from last year. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, with an operating rate of 42.51%. Rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons, up 21,500 tons from last week[5][6]. Macro - environment The postponement and reduction of tariffs by China and the US have complex and limited impacts on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans[6]. Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: With the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, the supply shortage is alleviated. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may be a focus, but the pricing center is still in South America, so the market may face pressure. - Rapeseed meal: The market's focus is on future supply. With the decline in soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal demand may weaken, and supply - side benefits may be limited. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile[7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Adopt a strategy of selling wide straddles[8]. Soybean Crushing Profit - For soybeans from Argentina, the May shipment had a crushing profit of 75.10; June shipment, 11.48; July shipment, - 76.77. - For soybeans from Brazil, the June shipment had a crushing profit of 102.52; July shipment, 82.62; August shipment, 15.34[9].
能源化工日报-20250508
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 01:09
能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 7 日 PVC 冲高回落。昨日开始受中美和谈等消息影响,市场一度宏 观偏暖迹象,工业品冲高。国内出台货币政策等,力度一般,但市场更 多交易对经济的担忧,夜盘美联储偏鹰。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大 (12%左右);供应端有不少新投计划,二季度投产压力较大,且烧碱利 润高开工持续维持高位,库存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求不足、产 能过剩,供需宽松格局,偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多,出口以价 换量持稳状态,内需季节性恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面驱动有限, 宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政策预期不强, PVC 估值偏低,盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期,或有一定 支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化,盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱: 5 月 7 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2513 元/吨(+15),山东市场主流价 800 元/吨(0),折百 2500 元/吨(0),液氯山东-100 元/吨(0)。4 ...
和谈本周开始
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-06 23:30
美国多家权威媒体 报道 中美和谈本周即将开始。 美股相关进出口链公司盘后上涨。 纳指盘后拉涨。黄金跌。 ...