Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main logic of the external market lies in the speculation on the planting weather of US soybeans, which is gradually recovering under the China-US peace talks. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the near - month and spot prices of meal products. However, the long - position speculation on the weather market and the unfalsifiable expectation of supply gap due to the trade war in the far - month contracts lead to a stronger far - month trend [4]. - The supply pressure in the second quarter and the third quarter is relatively large, resulting in a weak performance of the spot basis. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter ship purchases. On the rapeseed meal side, the spot supply pressure remains, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The far - month supply has the expectation of Sino - Canadian relations improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.5%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1765 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.3218 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3060 | 12 | 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2728 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3010 | 52 | 1.76% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2347 | 34 | 1.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2360 | 9 | 0.38% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2608 | 41 | 1.6% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1058 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1862 | 0 | 0% | [5][8] 3.4 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 327 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 289 | - 26 | | M09 - 01 | - 38 | 7 | | RM01 - 05 | - 4 | 12 | | RM05 - 09 | - 257 | - 19 | | RM09 - 01 | 261 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2840 | 40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 170 | - 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2492 | - 2 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 116 | - 43 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 348 | 42 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 402 | 0 | [9] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/Ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4498.7624 | 0 | - 0.0375 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3780.97 | 55.27 | 122.8 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.5061 | - 5.6889 | - 7.639 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 704.3824 | 0 | 61.638 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 248.0694 | 3.278 | - 0.0526 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 39 | 117 | 94 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 23 | 120 | 91 | [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The macro - sentiment improvement has limited impact on the supply - demand of the black - series commodities. Different varieties have different trends: steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) may return to range - bound operation; iron ore is short - term bullish; coke and coking coal will likely be in a volatile market; ferroalloys (manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) are expected to run weakly with limited macro - boost [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports ease the supply pressure of high hot - metal production, but there is still some shipping pressure on the raw material side. After the emotional trading fades, it will return to range - bound operation within [2940, 2980] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production is rising, apparent demand is falling, inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black - chain suppresses the market. It will also return to range - bound operation within [3050, 3090] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore is still supported by steel mill profits, although hot - metal production is decreasing. Supply has increased in both arrivals and shipments, while port and steel mill inventories have decreased. Near - term supply - demand is slightly weak. With positive news from China - US talks, the short - term market is bullish. Unilateral short positions should be reduced, and the price range is [690, 730] [1][8][9]. Coke - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke - producer profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall production is still high, and the operating rate is at a high level. Hot - metal production above 240 million tons guarantees certain demand, but steel mills are cautious in purchasing coke. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply - demand is loose. After the macro - sentiment trading fades, it will return to a volatile market within [1320, 1350] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production is still at a high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction at the current price. Mine inventories are rising, and the upstream shipping pressure persists. The supply - demand is loose. The macro - sentiment boost is limited, and the rebound is unsustainable. It will return to a volatile market within [760, 790] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Although hot - metal production is high, actual demand may be under pressure due to the off - season. The cost support is insufficient, and inventory pressure may increase after factory复产. Before the fundamentals improve significantly, the price will be under pressure, with a price range of [5420, 5650]. - **Ferrosilicon**: There is an expectation of cost - support weakening. With production resumption in the producing areas, supply may increase, and factory inventories are relatively high. The overall upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to run weakly within [5000, 5200] [1][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of Sino-US trade talks has pushed up the prices of aluminum and alumina. However, the actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected by tariffs, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline. The sustainability of consumption is controversial in May. For alumina, the supply is likely to increase month-on-month in May, and the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][3] Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On May 12, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 19,810 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was flat at 10 yuan/ton; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 19,810 yuan/ton, and the Central Plains A00 aluminum spot premium was flat at 0 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,760 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum spot premium fell 5 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On May 12, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 19,910 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton or 1.66% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 186,779 lots, an increase of 71,128 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 167,645 lots, a decrease of 14,093 lots from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Spot - On May 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,880 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 348 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On May 12, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,843 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 859,878 lots, a decrease of 110,097 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 272,614 lots, a decrease of 6,963 lots from the previous trading day [2] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 601,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 401,525 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, which has pushed up market sentiment and prices. The actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected by tariffs, and the inventory has continued to decline. The sustainability of consumption is controversial in May. The aluminum rod production is still strong, while the production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils has weakened slightly month-on-month. It is expected that the de-stocking amplitude will slow down, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without positive stimulus [3] Alumina - In the spot market, the price is rising slightly. The futures price is rising weakly. The cost is showing signs of collapse, and the alumina plants have rich production profits. The supply in May is likely to increase month-on-month, and the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged [3] Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral [4] Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage [5]

金十期货5月13日讯，昨天，随着中美贸易谈判结束，联合声明发布，市场体现出超预期利好，盘中原 油价格出现明显拉升，但是随后不断回落，将拉升的涨幅基本全部回吐完毕，市场气氛依然偏谨慎。卓 创资讯预计，在中美和谈之后，关注欧佩克和iea石油报告中关于石油需求的判断是否修正了上月报 告，以及即将进行的特朗普沙特中东之旅，短期维持区间震荡。 （卓创资讯） 原油：中美联合声明公布 油价冲高回落 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has limited near - term pressure, with good US soybean export performance and reduced selling pressure in Brazil. However, the long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose due to high projected US soybean ending stocks and continued pressure in the South American market. - In the domestic market, the recent tight supply situation is gradually improving as the oil mill operating rate increases and soybean arrivals become clearer. - The macro - environment has a complex and limited impact on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to face some pressure, while the rapeseed meal market may see weakening demand and limited supply - side benefits[5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - The US soybean futures market showed a strong trend due to improved macro - conditions after China - US talks. The domestic futures market was mainly in shock, with soybean meal outperforming rapeseed meal. - For soybean meal futures, the contract 0105 closed at 2955, down 6; contract 09 at 2919, down 1. For rapeseed meal futures, contract 01 closed at 2330, down 15; contract 05 at 2485, up 1; contract 09 at 2563, down 2. - The basis of soybean meal in Tianjin was 420, up 40; in Dongguan, it was 220, down 130; in Zhangjiagang, it was 200, up 10; in Rizhao, it was 190, up 30. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong was - 63, up 42; in Guangdong, it was - 113, down 8; in Guangxi, it was - 123, down 8. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was - 132, up 28; the 9 - 1 spread was - 36, up 5; the 1 - 5 spread was 168, down 33. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 78, up 3; the 9 - 1 spread was 233, up 13; the 1 - 5 spread was - 155, down 16. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 852, down 18; between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 1039, down 111; between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 117, down 3[4]. Fundamental Analysis - International: As of the week ending May 1, US soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. The March crushing data was average, but overall demand was good. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of May 3 was 97.7%, higher than last year and the five - year average. The long - term US soybean ending stocks are expected to remain high due to large export pressure on new crops, and the South American market will continue to face pressure. - Domestic: As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, up 602,700 tons (12.7%) from last week and 1.1634 million tons (27.79%) from last year. Soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, up 19,100 tons (23.26%) from last week but down 458,000 tons (81.9%) from last year. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, with an operating rate of 42.51%. Rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons, up 21,500 tons from last week[5][6]. Macro - environment The postponement and reduction of tariffs by China and the US have complex and limited impacts on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans[6]. Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: With the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, the supply shortage is alleviated. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may be a focus, but the pricing center is still in South America, so the market may face pressure. - Rapeseed meal: The market's focus is on future supply. With the decline in soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal demand may weaken, and supply - side benefits may be limited. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile[7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Adopt a strategy of selling wide straddles[8]. Soybean Crushing Profit - For soybeans from Argentina, the May shipment had a crushing profit of 75.10; June shipment, 11.48; July shipment, - 76.77. - For soybeans from Brazil, the June shipment had a crushing profit of 102.52; July shipment, 82.62; August shipment, 15.34[9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market showed a briefly macro - positive trend due to news like China - US talks, but concerns about the economy persisted, and the Fed's hawkish stance at night also influenced the market. Overall, the market situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors including domestic policies, international trade, and economic growth expectations [2][4]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 7, PVC prices rose and then fell. In the long - term, PVC faces a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and export restrictions, and high supply pressure from new projects and high - profit烧碱 production. Currently, it is mainly influenced by the macro - environment, with low valuation and weak trading. Key factors to watch are tariff negotiations, domestic stimulus policies, exports, and maintenance efforts [2]. 烧碱 - On May 7, the main SH09 contract of caustic soda closed at 2513 yuan/ton (+15). The market supply is abundant, demand has not improved, and prices are trending lower. The overall situation is that supply remains sufficient, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to monitor are Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production start - up, exports, and maintenance scale from June to August [3]. 橡胶 - On May 7, rubber prices rose and then fell. NR in Thailand is expected to start tapping soon and is showing weakness, while RU has some support from stockpiling. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term. Factors to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][6]. 尿素 - The main urea contract rose 0.96% to close at 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is at a historically high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. Demand includes agricultural, industrial, and export - substitution aspects. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1750 - 1950 yuan/ton range. Key factors to follow are crop sowing progress, export news, and macro - policy changes [7]. 甲醇 - The main methanol contract rose 0.09% to close at 2239 yuan/ton. Supply from inland areas is decreasing due to lower device operating rates, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Inventory shows a differentiation between inland and port areas. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the operating range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [8]. 塑料 - On May 7, the main plastic contract rose 0.51% to 7046 yuan/ton. In April, due to tariff policies, plastic prices dropped significantly. Supply pressure is increasing with new capacity coming online in the second quarter. Demand is entering the off - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Key factors to monitor are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [9][10].

美国多家权威媒体 报道 中美和谈本周即将开始。 美股相关进出口链公司盘后上涨。 纳指盘后拉涨。黄金跌。 ...