今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发 稿，富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风 险也推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长 期主义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产 能出清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（516120）等产品。 石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相 关的上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探 ...

随着全球储能市场的需求的爆发，相关企业的业绩开始逐步兑现。 在需求的加持下，头部企业直接受益。 2月初，港股储能企业瑞浦兰钧发布了2025年盈喜公告。公告显示，公司预计截至2025年12月31日止年度实现净利润6.3亿元至7.3亿元，较2024年同期净亏损 13.53亿元成功扭亏为盈。 对于业绩的扭亏，瑞浦兰钧表示主要系： 第一，动力及储能电池产品出货量持续增加，有效带动收入稳步增长； 第二，产能利用率提升与降本增效措施落地，推动毛利显著改善。 从营收结构来看，截至2025年6月末，瑞浦兰钧动力电池产品板块的营收为40.27亿元，占到了其总营收的42.42%；储能电池产品板块营收为50.83亿元，占 到了其总营收的53.55%。也就是说，储能板块尤其是户储板块，优势比较明显。而其重卡电池板块，位居全国第二，但护城河并不深，容易受到宁德时代 这类巨头的冲击。 从瑞浦兰钧整体策略来看，其也是有效地避开了乘用车电池赛道，选择重卡电池板块以及储能板块差异化竞争。当然，这并不意味着企业可以高枕无忧，当 下锂电行业的价格战还未完全结束，行业毛利率承压明显。更为重要的是，对于一、二线电池企业而言储能板块以及重卡电池板块的扩 ...

Group 1: Iran-U.S. Nuclear Negotiations - The second round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. is set to take place in Geneva on the 17th, with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif leading the Iranian delegation [2][5] - The talks will continue to be indirect, with Oman acting as a mediator, emphasizing the need for mutual understanding and consensus to reach an agreement that aligns with the interests of all parties involved [5][3] Group 2: U.S. Military Deployment - The U.S. Air Force has deployed 18 F-35A Lightning II fighter jets to the Middle East, marking one of the largest single deployments in recent months, reflecting the current military strategy due to tensions with Iran [6][8] Group 3: Chemical Industry Outlook for 2026 - The chemical sector has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with increasing transaction volumes and institutional investment, alongside a steady rise in prices of mainstream chemical products [10] - Market analysts predict a "volatile upward trend with structural differentiation" for the chemical sector, with potential risks from international commodity market fluctuations and domestic production resumption rates affecting demand [11][12] - The chemical industry is expected to gradually recover from a low valuation and profit situation, driven by the elimination of outdated capacity and structural optimization [12][15] - Investment opportunities in the chemical sector include "tight balance" products like PX and PTA, as well as innovative products in semiconductor materials and new energy materials, which are seen as long-term growth drivers [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

Company Overview - The company is experiencing a phase of increased domestic demand for photovoltaic glass due to a reduction in export tax rebates, leading to a slight increase in glass prices and a partial recovery in sales profits [1] - The company aims to control inventory levels to alleviate pressure during the Chinese New Year, with inventory days decreasing from 40.17 days to 34.18 days, a reduction of approximately 6 days [1] Market Commentary - Demand for photovoltaic components has been weak in the first half of the year, with the focus on inventory clearance expected to continue until mid-February [1] - The company is one of the leading suppliers of glass for export components, and it is anticipated that the proportion of overseas shipments will increase, potentially raising profit margins [1] Production and Capacity - The company has launched a 1200-ton production line in Indonesia as of January 15, with another line expected to commence soon, aiming for full production and sales within the year [1] - The overseas production capacity is projected to account for 24.7% of the company's total production capacity, with expectations that over 35% of total shipments will be exported [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised by 13.4% to 18.914 billion yuan due to higher-than-expected glass prices [1] - The profit forecast for Q4 has been increased by 2% to 1.528 billion yuan, while the revenue forecast for 2026 has been adjusted up by 10.3% to 20.324 billion yuan [1] - The company has introduced a revenue forecast for 2027 of 21.293 billion yuan and a profit forecast of 2.355 billion yuan [1] - The target price is maintained at 3.6 HKD, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.5 and 12.3 for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 1.4% from the current stock price [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of North Glass Holdings (002613) has shown volatility in the past week, with a peak of 4.26 yuan on February 11 and a low of 4.05 yuan on February 5, resulting in a cumulative fluctuation of 2.47% over five days [1] - On February 12, the latest stock price was 4.15 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.72% from the previous day, with a net outflow of 5.91 million yuan in main capital on that day [1] - The glass fiber sector has outperformed the broader market, increasing by 3.53% during the same period [1] Group 2 - On February 12, North Glass Holdings announced a guarantee of 25.2 million yuan for its subsidiary Tianjin North Glass, which represents 3.14% of its net assets for 2024 [2] - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing supply-demand imbalance pressures, with a report from Zhuochuang Information indicating that capacity clearance by 2026 may fall short of expectations, and the cancellation of export tax rebates could further impact corporate profitability, posing potential challenges for North Glass Holdings' photovoltaic glass business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from oversupply to a phase of accelerated capacity clearance, with expectations of a more intense market correction in 2026 compared to 2025 due to weakening demand forecasts [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Several photovoltaic companies, including Mingguan New Materials and Trina Solar, have announced project terminations or fund reallocations to more promising areas due to declining profitability in the industry [2]. - Mingguan New Materials terminated its investment in a solar backplane production project, initially planned with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, citing industry competition and rising operational costs as reasons [2]. - Trina Solar plans to reduce funding for its original project and redirect remaining funds to a new distributed smart photovoltaic power station project, which is expected to contribute a net profit of 94.91 million yuan annually [2]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - Some companies, such as Oujing Technology and Tianyi New Materials, have suspended production due to decreased demand from downstream customers, with utilization rates as low as 14.66% for certain subsidiaries [3]. - Cross-industry companies like *ST Lvkang have completely exited the photovoltaic sector to alleviate financial pressures by selling all assets related to photovoltaic film business [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant excess capacity, with analysts noting that the slowdown in short-term demand exacerbates supply chain pressures [4]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association projects a decrease in new photovoltaic installations in 2026, estimating a range of 180 GW to 240 GW, down from 315.07 GW in 2025, indicating a decline of 24% to 43% [4]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Global photovoltaic installation growth is also expected to slow, with projections for 2026 ranging from 500 GW to 667 GW, compared to 580 GW in 2025 [5]. - Analysts predict that the era of high growth in the photovoltaic sector may be over, with annual growth rates potentially stabilizing at around 3% after 2027 [5]. Group 5: Industry Resilience and New Opportunities - The competitive environment has fostered resilience and adaptability among Chinese companies, prompting them to seek new growth avenues beyond traditional photovoltaic operations [7]. - Companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to maintain competitiveness, while also exploring diversification into areas like energy storage and new photovoltaic applications [8][9]. - Trina Solar has set ambitious profit targets for 2026, reflecting confidence in recovering profitability and expanding into energy solutions [8].

Group 1 - The construction materials industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" due to policy guidance and market clearing, which may support a systematic uplift in the sector's valuation center [1] - Multiple government departments have implemented a "de-involution" strategy for the construction materials industry, tightening capacity replacement policies for basic materials like cement and glass [2] - In 2024, the cement clinker capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 30 million tons, primarily affecting small kiln lines that do not meet energy consumption standards [2] Group 2 - The construction materials industry has experienced two consecutive years of negative capital expenditure, with a projected 18% year-on-year decline in 2024 for the cement sector, marking the lowest new clinker capacity in a decade [5] - The market concentration in the cement industry has increased, with the top ten companies' market share rising from 58% in 2021 to 67% in 2024, indicating a shift towards an oligopolistic competition structure [5] - Leading companies are shifting focus from market share competition to profit protection, with peak production execution rates increasing from 70% to over 90% [6] Group 3 - In Q4 2024, cement prices in East China rebounded by over 20% from their annual low, demonstrating the effectiveness of supply-side reforms [6][8] - The construction materials sector exhibits a low asset and low debt advantage, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 48.7% compared to 72.3% for the real estate development sector, indicating stronger financial resilience [9] - The sector's business model emphasizes "light assets + channel penetration," resulting in healthy cash flow generation capabilities, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in net cash flow from operating activities by Q3 2025 [11] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All-Share Construction Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the sector [12] - The top ten holdings in the ETF include major players like Conch Cement and Oriental Yuhong, reflecting a high concentration in industry leaders [13] - The construction materials sector is viewed as a core cyclical investment, with demand recovery, supply optimization, and profit recovery supporting its investment value, especially during market shifts towards cyclical stocks [13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [8] Core Insights - The domestic spandex consumption is expected to reach 1.088 million tons by 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 7.55%, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.68% from 2022 to 2025 [1][30] - The spandex industry is currently experiencing a price and margin bottoming out, with prices as of January 23, 2026, at 23,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical low since 2010 [1][7] - The demand for spandex is driven by the growth of high spandex content apparel, particularly in sportswear and underwear, as consumer preferences shift towards comfort and quality [30][68] Summary by Sections 1. Spandex Product Overview - Spandex, known as polyurethane fiber, is characterized by its exceptional elasticity, capable of stretching 400%-800% and maintaining a recovery rate of over 95% even after being stretched five times [2][14] - The production process is dominated by dry spinning technology, which accounts for over 80% of the total production [19][25] 2. Supply and Demand Balance - The spandex production capacity in China is projected to reach 1.498 million tons by the end of 2025, with a significant concentration of production in the western regions due to energy cost advantages [30][49] - The demand for spandex is expected to grow steadily, driven by the increasing proportion of spandex in high-content apparel, particularly in sportswear and underwear [30][56] 3. Price and Cost Analysis - Current spandex prices and margins are at historical lows, with expectations for recovery as supply expansion approaches its end and demand continues to grow [7][28] - The main raw material costs account for over 40% of production costs, impacting overall profitability [21][30] 4. Related Companies - Key players in the spandex industry include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials, with significant market shares and production capacities [44][51]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为11.75GW,环比增加8.19%,库存为27.29万吨，环比增加1.90%,目前 硅片生产为亏损状态，2月排产为45.31GW,较上月产量45.93GW，环比减少1.34%；1月电池片产 量为41.44GW,环比减少11.37%,上周电池片外销厂库存为9.17GW,环比增加2.80%，目前生产为盈 1、基本面: 偏多。 利状态，2月排产量为36.7GW,环比减少11.43%；1月组件产量为35.2GW,环比减少9.04%,2月预计 组件产量为29.8GW,环比减少15.34%,国内月度库存为24.76GW,环比减少51 ...