Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is currently facing significant attention due to capacity clearance amid concerns of overcapacity and industry competition [1]. Group 1: Industry Meeting - A meeting regarding the LFP materials sub-association was held on August 22, focusing on solutions to address industry overcapacity [1]. - The meeting took place in a private setting with 13 attendees, including representatives from 10 LFP industry companies and 3 staff members from the sub-association [1]. - Participating companies included listed firms such as Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Anda Technology, De Fang Nano, and the subsidiary of Dangsheng Technology, Dangsheng Shudao (Panzhihua) New Materials Co., Ltd [1]. Group 2: Meeting Agenda - The agenda of the meeting revolved around discussing industry competition and strategies for phasing out outdated production capacity [1]. - Another key topic was exploring low-carbon transformation pathways for the entire industry chain [1]. - The meeting was characterized as a "closed-door" event, with no media presence or live recordings [1].

记者实地探访。 （8月22日上午9:00深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店/第一财经记者摄） 根据记者在现场获得的签到名单，本次参会方共计13人次，其中3名为磷酸铁锂材料分会秘书处工作人员，其余10家为磷酸铁锂产业链企业，包括湖南裕能 （301358.SZ）、万润新能（688275.SZ）、安达科技（830809.BJ）、德方纳米（300769.SZ）以及当升科技（300073.SZ）旗下的当升蜀道（攀枝花）新材料 有限公司5家上市公司或上市公司子公司，以及友山科技、丰元锂能、常州锂源、天原理电。 新能源"反内卷"当下，磷酸铁锂产能出清备受市场关注。上周，一份关于召开磷酸铁锂材料分会理事会的通知文件在业内广泛流传，引发市场高度关注。 8月22日，记者实地探访深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店，会议在酒店二楼的伦敦+巴黎厅内如期举行。厅内，行业协会负责人及产业链企业代表齐聚一堂，共同 商讨应对行业产能过剩的解决方案。 今年5月，中国化学与物理电源行业协会磷酸铁锂材料分会在深圳成立，分会的成立旨在推动技术标准化、淘汰落后产能、强化国际合作，助力中国主导全 球磷酸铁锂产业链。 （8月22日上午9:15深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店/第一财经记者摄 ...

新能源"反内卷"当下，磷酸铁锂产能出清备受市场关注。上周，一份关于召开磷酸铁锂材料分会理事会的通知文件在业内广泛流传，引发市场高度关注。 （8月22日上午9:00深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店/第一财经记者摄） 根据记者在现场获得的签到名单，本次参会方共计13人次，其中3名为磷酸铁锂材料分会秘书处工作人员，其余10家为磷酸铁锂产业链企业，包括湖南裕能 （301358.SZ）、万润新能（688275.SZ）、安达科技（830809.BJ）、德方纳米（300769.SZ）以及当升科技（300073.SZ）旗下的当升蜀道（攀枝花）新材料 有限公司5家上市公司或上市公司子公司，以及友山科技、丰元锂能、常州锂源、天原理电。 （8月22日上午9:10深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店/第一财经记者摄） 8月22日，记者实地探访深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店，会议在酒店二楼的伦敦+巴黎厅内如期举行。厅内，行业协会负责人及产业链企业代表齐聚一堂，共同 商讨应对行业产能过剩的解决方案。 今年5月，中国化学与物理电源行业协会磷酸铁锂材料分会在深圳成立，分会的成立旨在推动技术标准化、淘汰落后产能、强化国际合作，助力中国主导全 球磷酸铁锂产业链。 在新一轮扩产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of "involution" competition rectification across various industries has led to some improvement in industrial product prices, although the overall impact on price levels remains limited [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influences - Since July, there has been a significant increase in the futures prices of industrial products such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with the Nanhua Composite Index rising for four consecutive weeks [1]. - As of August 22, the current prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and other steel products, as well as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, are notably higher than early July levels [1]. - The rectification of "involution" competition has particularly focused on the photovoltaic industry, with polysilicon prices rising by 36.9% and industrial silicon prices by 7.26% from the beginning of the year to July [1][2]. Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Market Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a narrowing decline, indicating that the "involution" measures are beginning to have an effect on price levels [2][3]. - The prices in sectors such as coal mining, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing have seen reduced month-on-month declines compared to previous months [2]. - However, the overall price recovery trend remains unclear, as some sectors like cement have not shown significant improvement [3]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called for a more regulated competitive order in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for orderly exit of outdated capacities and resisting low-price competition [3][4]. - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumer demand, such as subsidies for childbirth and education, are expected to help improve the weak downstream demand situation [5]. - Analysts suggest that strengthening supply-side constraints could mitigate the impact of declining exports on demand, while more targeted demand-side policies may be necessary [5][6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华峰化学（002064）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 行业谷底业绩坚韧，氨纶盈利逆势抬升 目标价：11 元 事项： ❖ 近日公司发布 2025 年中报，上半年公司营业收入为 121.4 亿元，同比下降 11.7%；归母净利润为 9.83 亿元，同比下降 35.2%；扣非归母净利润为 9.04 亿 元，同比下降 37.8%；经营现金流净额为 13.52 亿元，同比增长 82.6%。2025Q2， 公司营业收入为 58.2 亿元，同比下降 17.8%；归母净利润为 4.79 亿元，同比 下降 42.6%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,931 | 25,495 | 29,330 | 32,514 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.4% | -5.3% | 15.0% | 10.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,220 | 2,268 | 2,715 | 3,459 | | ...

专题报告 2025-08-22 乙二醇：政策对基本面影响较小，中期仍旧承压 报告要点： 近期乙二醇行业有较多供给端政策对情绪上产生影响，但从基本面的角度看对于行业产能过剩 以及进口端的影响极小，反而是下游需求端装置的出清存在利空压力，因此政策对于乙二醇行 业的影响情绪大于实质。从中期的角度看，随着国内外负荷提升，乙二醇将进入累库周期，估 值高位承压。短期节奏上看，近期到港量偏少，港口库存在短期还未进入累库阶段，叠加政策 刺激情绪对乙二醇有一定支撑，需等待到港量上升后，考虑逢高空配的机会。 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 能化研究员 近期工信部等部门出台关于开展石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估通知，对化工行业 超过 20 年运行装置进行摸排，若后续存在出清政策的落实，预期会缓解化工行业 过剩产能的现状。 但对于乙二醇行业而言，整体老装置占比不多，运行超过 20 年的装置有 141.2 万 吨产能，其中燕山石化、天 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for spandex is expected to continue growing due to increasing penetration rates in the textile industry and rising consumer preferences for comfort [5][13] - The spandex industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with outdated production capacity gradually being eliminated [6][22] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve as outdated capacity is cleared, benefiting leading companies in the industry [7][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Spandex is primarily used in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex consumption in 2024 dedicated to clothing production, resulting in an apparent consumption volume of 1.0269 million tons [5][14] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for spandex apparent consumption from 2020 to 2024 is 9.21%, significantly higher than other mainstream fibers [14] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China increased by 3.10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, further driving spandex demand [14][19] Supply Side - The spandex industry has been experiencing significant overcapacity, with an average gross profit margin of -5,217 yuan/ton as of August 13, 2025, indicating prolonged losses [6][25] - In 2024, new spandex production capacity is expected to increase by 135,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.88%, continuing a trend of over 10% growth for three consecutive years [25][39] - The industry concentration ratio (CR5) stands at 79.53%, indicating a high level of market concentration among leading companies [33][35] Future Outlook - Leading companies such as Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are expected to benefit from their cost advantages, with unit costs significantly lower than the industry average [7][39] - The anticipated new production capacity for spandex in 2025 is only 111,000 tons, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [33][48] - Recommended stocks include Huafeng Chemical, with other beneficiaries being Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Taihe New Materials [45][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend this week, with the price center rising and market risk appetite recovering. The valuation structure remained differentiated, with high - priced bonds driven by elasticity and medium - and low - priced bonds being repaired. Frequent downward revision and redemption events increased the game nature. The equity market was dominated by the small - and medium - cap growth style, and funds were highly concentrated in technology mainlines such as communication and electronics, as well as rotating sectors such as machinery and non - ferrous metals. Under the accelerated market rotation, the volatility risk of high - position crowded sectors increased. It is recommended to follow the market mainline and rotation rhythm, dig out elastic varieties driven by the underlying stocks, and pay attention to sectors at the bottom of the cycle, such as the chemical industry, which have allocation value [2][6]. - The current chemical convertible bond market is in the clearing stage of the production capacity and inventory cycle, and market attention is relatively low. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds generally have low valuations, and the convertible bonds themselves have both bond - like protection and price elasticity. Although the industry's overall capital expenditure has shrunk and shows an active de - stocking trend, the profitability of the sector has shown signs of improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to individual bonds with a safety margin of underlying stock valuation and profit - repair elasticity [11]. - The A - share market showed a significant small - and medium - cap growth style this week. The ChiNext Index led the rise. Although the net outflow of main funds continued, the outflow pressure eased, and market sentiment improved. In terms of industries, the differentiation intensified. Technology - growth sectors such as communication, power equipment, and electronics became the main lines, leading the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation opportunities within the mainline sectors and be cautious about directions with excessive trading congestion [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chemical Convertible Bond Market Analysis - **Performance and Potential**: The chemical convertible bond market is in the clearing stage of the production capacity and inventory cycle. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds are generally undervalued, and the convertible bonds have bond - like protection and price elasticity. The industry's profitability is improving, especially under the strengthening of the "anti - involution" logic, and its profit - repair potential is worth looking forward to [11]. - **Market Attention**: As of August 15, the trading volume of the chemical sector accounted for 5.9% of the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, at a historical percentile of 2.7% since July 23, 2010, indicating low market attention and potential allocation opportunities [19]. - **Capacity Cycle**: In the second quarter of 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of the chemical industry was only 71.9%, at a historical low since the fourth quarter of 2016. The capital expenditure intensity of all sub - sectors in the first quarter of 2025 showed negative growth, indicating that the chemical sector is in the production capacity clearing stage [26]. - **Inventory Cycle**: The chemical sector may have entered the active de - stocking stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net profit margin has been on the rise, and the profitability of enterprises has improved [30]. - **Individual Bond Analysis**: As of August 15, 2025, 58 individual bonds in the large chemical sector were selected. The median conversion premium rate was 26.1%, and the balance - weighted average conversion premium rate was 44.2%, still having bond - like characteristics. The median market price was 133.4 yuan, slightly higher than the market median. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds are still in a low - valuation range [33]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - **Equity Market**: The trading - themed stocks in the equity market were active this week. The continuous limit - up index led the rise with a weekly increase of 20.9%. The technology and high - end manufacturing fields showed a differentiated pattern, the pharmaceutical sector rose as a whole, and the military - related themes were under pressure. Short - term funds were active, and funds were highly concentrated in trading - themed stocks and technology hardware sub - directions [35][36]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued its upward trend this week, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the way. The valuation structure remained differentiated, and the implied volatility fluctuated upward. The market style shifted to machinery and equipment and non - ferrous metals, and individual bond performance was mainly driven by the underlying stocks. It is recommended to follow the market style and pay attention to elastic varieties with strong underlying stock driving forces [11]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Index Performance - The A - share main indexes continued to be strong this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.5%, and the ChiNext Index led the rise with an 8.6% increase. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed better [39]. - Although the net outflow of main funds continued, the outflow pressure eased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 2.1 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 billion yuan [39]. 3.3.2 Industry Performance - The A - share market showed significant structural differentiation. Sectors such as communication, power equipment, and electronics were the strongest. The consumer and cyclical sectors showed different performances within the sectors. Funds were concentrated in growth sectors such as electronics and computers [45][46]. - The trading heat of the market showed significant differentiation. The military, pharmaceutical, and machinery sectors were highly active, while the cyclical and some consumer sectors showed a decline in heat [49]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market continued to rise this week, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the way. The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index rose 1.6%, the small - cap convertible bond index rose 2.3%, the medium - cap index rose 1.6%, and the large - cap index rose 0.2%. The trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of about 965.0 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 67.0 billion yuan [52]. - The valuation of the convertible bond market was stretched overall when divided by the parity range. When divided by the market price range, the valuation showed a differentiated pattern. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market fluctuated upward, and the median price of convertible bonds rose [55][57][60]. - Most of the 25 industries in the convertible bond market rose this week. Non - ferrous metals, machinery and equipment, and non - bank finance led the rise. The trading volume was concentrated in machinery and equipment, power equipment, and basic chemicals [63]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week. The performance of convertible bonds was mainly driven by the underlying stocks. The convertible bonds with high increases were mostly those with high elasticity and long - term or near - maturity characteristics, while the convertible bonds with large declines were affected by the poor performance of the underlying stocks [65][68]. 3.4 Issuance and Clause Tracking - No new convertible bonds were listed this week, and one convertible bond, Kaizhong Convertible Bond, was open for subscription, with an issue size of 3.1 billion yuan and a credit rating of AA - [69]. - Four listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans this week, including two in the exchange - acceptance stage, one in the shareholders' meeting - approved stage, and one in the board - proposal stage [70]. - In terms of downward revisions, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 8 announced that they would not make downward revisions, and 2 proposed downward revisions [77][78][80]. - In terms of redemptions, 15 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 6 announced that they would not redeem in advance, and 4 announced early redemptions [81][82][86].

Group 1: Economic Overview - July industrial added value year-on-year was 5.7%, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from June, indicating a cooling industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in July saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, a sharp drop of 5.2 percentage points from June, marking a historical low[6] - Real estate investment in July decreased by 17% year-on-year, down 4.1 percentage points from June, with new construction area also declining by 15.4%[10] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continuous decline in consumption growth[12] - The manufacturing investment year-on-year in July was -0.3%, a significant drop of 5.4 percentage points from June, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" policies[8] - The private investment year-on-year growth in July was -7.3%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, closely mirroring the manufacturing investment trend[8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The equity market has entered a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, driven by increased retail investor participation[18] - Bond market yields are rising, with the potential for further increases due to low absolute yield levels and market adjustments, indicating a need to monitor risks from concentrated sell-offs[21] - The overall financing in July showed a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with government bond financing being the main driver, while corporate loan demand remains weak[14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic soda ash production primarily utilizes the following methods: - **Soda-Lime Process** (49%) - **Ammonia-Soda Process** (34%) - **Natural Soda Process** (16%) - The natural soda process is favored for its cost and environmental advantages, but it is limited by resource availability [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Pressures**: The ammonia-soda and soda-lime processes have production costs around **1,300 RMB/ton**, exceeding the market price of **1,200 RMB/ton**, leading to losses for many companies [1][5] - **Capacity and Supply**: By 2024, soda ash capacity is expected to reach **40.8 million tons**, with new natural soda mines exacerbating supply surplus. The industry may remain sluggish due to real estate sector drag, necessitating capacity clearance to improve supply-demand balance [1][6] - **Demand Shifts**: The demand for flat glass is declining, projected to be **32%** in 2024, while demand for photovoltaic glass is steadily increasing. The correlation between real estate completions and soda ash consumption is weak, with emerging sectors like photovoltaics partially offsetting real estate downturn impacts [1][9][10] - **Policy Impact**: Policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other agencies are expected to drive the exit of outdated capacities, improving industry supply-demand dynamics [1][12] Potential Investment Opportunities - **Current Profitability**: The soda ash industry is experiencing historically low profitability, with most companies incurring losses. However, companies like **Shandong Haihua**, **Boyang Chemical**, and **Zhongyan Chemical** show investment potential due to their operational resilience [1][14] - **Natural Soda Projects**: The new natural soda project by Zhongyan Chemical is expected to increase domestic natural soda capacity to **28%** by the end of 2025, potentially rising to **43%** post-project completion [1][13] - **Boyang Chemical's Growth**: The company focuses on natural gas operations, with the Alashan Phase II project expected to add **1.68 million tons** of soda ash and **240,000 tons** of sodium bicarbonate annually, contributing significantly to future growth [2][15] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The soda ash industry is characterized by global pricing, with historical peaks reaching **3,700 RMB/ton**. The current low prices and the inability to import economically from regions like the US and Turkey due to shipping and tariffs create a unique market situation [7][8] - **Future Demand from Photovoltaics**: Although there is short-term overcapacity in photovoltaic glass, long-term demand could increase by **5.5 million tons** of soda ash if overseas photovoltaic installations continue to rise [11] - **Dividend and Financial Health**: Boyang Chemical shows strong dividend intentions with payout ratios of **79%** and **61.6%** for 2023 and 2024, respectively, alongside a declining debt ratio and significant future cash flow potential [16] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the soda ash industry, along with potential investment opportunities and challenges.