Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable trend, with slight recovery in transaction activity and stable prices due to supply-side production reduction expectations and policy support [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type reprocessed material is 53,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 50,500 yuan/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous week [1][3]. - The total production of polysilicon in November is expected to drop to below 120,000 tons, primarily due to increased electricity costs during the dry season in the southwestern region [1][2]. Group 2 - Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon producers, with two major companies expected to reduce production and undergo maintenance, leading to a significant decrease in total supply by approximately 12.4% [2]. - Despite the supply contraction, the polysilicon market remains in a state of oversupply, with high industry inventory and weak end-user demand limiting price increases [2]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits for silicon and germanium products is in the consultation phase, which is anticipated to drive capacity clearance and industry upgrades once implemented [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of both supply and demand reduction in the polysilicon production schedule for November, with a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", remains unchanged. The previously rumored capacity storage method has been confirmed for the first time, boosting market sentiment. The "involution" measures will take another step, and the progress of capacity clearance continues. In the short term, prices may show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 55,000 with a decline of 4.14%. PS2512 closed at 53,750 with a decline of 4.12%. PS2601 closed at 53,715 with a decline of 4.19%. PS2602 closed at 53,685 with a decline of 4.19% [1] - The price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is -2,175 with an increase of 80. The price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 35 with an increase of 40. The price difference between PS2601 - PS2602 is 30 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type compact material is 51 with no change. The average price of N - type mixed material is 50.5 [1][2] Basis - The basis between N - type compact material and PS2601 is -2,715 with an increase of 2,350. The basis between N - type mixed material and PS2601 is -3,215 with an increase of 2,350 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 26.1 with an increase of 0.3. The silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 18.93 with an increase of 0.46. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 9,590 with an increase of 490 [2] Newly - installed Capacity - In September 2025, the newly - installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% and a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [2]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has shown signs of improvement in Q3 2025, with a significant reduction in net losses across the main industry chain, indicating the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 14 out of 21 listed photovoltaic companies reported a quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit, with major players like Daqo Energy and Shuangliang Eco-Energy turning losses into profits [1][2] - Daqo Energy reported Q3 revenue of 1.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 214.93%, with a net profit of 73 million yuan [3] - The overall revenue of the 21 companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 381.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.05% [5] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price stabilization phase, particularly in the upstream sectors of silicon materials and wafers, which has contributed to the reduction in losses [2][3] - Despite the reduction in losses, the overall revenue decline is attributed to weak demand for new installations, with a significant drop in domestic installation capacity [4][5] Demand and Supply Outlook - The market is transitioning into Q4, traditionally a slow season for photovoltaic installations, with expectations of limited order growth for battery components [7] - The cumulative inventory pressure in silicon materials remains a concern, with expectations that industry inventory levels will exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [6][7]

Group 1: Company Strengths - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with international retailers, pet product brands, and e-commerce channels due to its production scale, delivery capability, R&D strength, and product quality [3]. - The combined annual production capacity of domestic and overseas bases can reach 48.7 billion pet pads and 2 billion pet diapers, with delivery cycles reduced from 45 days to 2 weeks [3]. - The company focuses on R&D for eco-friendly and functional products to help clients upgrade their offerings [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, overseas sales accounted for 92.63% of total revenue, with North America contributing 64.78%, Asia 22.37%, and Europe 4.69% [3]. - The company achieved a year-on-year sales growth of 37.18% in the first three quarters, expanding over 20 new clients primarily in Europe, Japan, South Korea, South America, and North America [3]. Group 3: Order and Production Capacity - The company has sufficient orders for the fourth quarter, with equipment operating at 100% capacity [3]. - The production base in Cambodia has fully transitioned orders from major clients, enhancing production efficiency [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The company anticipates improvements in gross profit margins due to declining raw material costs, optimized product structure, and increased utilization of high-margin pet diapers [4]. - The non-woven fabric business has turned profitable in the first three quarters, benefiting from industry capacity adjustments [4]. - The company plans to maintain cost control and product upgrades to further solidify its profitability [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations in November 2025, with the 01 contract likely to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after the premium is reversed. In the long - term, the cost support of the glass industry will gradually strengthen [3][63]. - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a risk of capacity clearance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic due to the expected new capacity release [4][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 2025 November Strategy Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 October Review - In October, glass supply was stable, demand was weak, and the speculative demand in the middle - stream turned into speculative supply. The upstream inventory increased rapidly, and the prices in the main producing areas dropped. By the end of the month, the spot price stabilized at a low level [11]. - The FG01 - 05 spread continued the reverse - spread trend, corresponding to the weak reality and the market's expectation of environmental protection and capacity - restriction policies [11]. - In terms of supply, the daily melting capacity was stable in October, with 1 line ignited and no cold - repair. The production cost increased slightly, and the profit situation deteriorated [14]. - On the demand side, the deep - processing orders decreased, and the mid - and downstream inventory decreased. The real - estate data was poor, white - goods production decreased year - on - year, and automobile production maintained a high growth rate [20][22]. 3.1.2 Glass 2025 November Outlook - **Demand**: Affected by the real - estate cycle, glass demand is expected to remain weak. In November, the rigid demand may be weak and stable seasonally. Attention should be paid to whether the middle - stream replenishes inventory [50]. - **Supply**: In November, the ignition and cold - repair of production lines are expected to be relatively balanced. The supply may be affected by cold - repair and policy implementation, but the medium - term positive impact is limited [55]. - **Cost**: In October, the increase in fuel prices raised the production cost of the glass industry. The cost support for prices will gradually strengthen [60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the glass supply - demand pattern is expected to remain weak year - on - year, and the upstream inventory is expected to be worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year. - The valuation is driven by supply - side factors and potential mid - and downstream inventory replenishment. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities. The 01 - 05 spread has limited room to widen [63]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Strategy Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 October Review - In October, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash remained unchanged. The spot price decreased slightly after the National Day, and the production cost increased due to the rise in coal prices. The SA01 contract oscillated in the range of 1200 - 1275 yuan/ton [70]. - In terms of supply, the production of soda ash remained high, but the alkali plant's initiative to reduce the load increased. The cost increased, and the industry's loss expanded [79]. - On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry was stable, and the demand for light soda ash was supported. The net export of soda ash in September remained at a relatively high level [82][86]. - In terms of inventory, the upstream inventory increased seasonally at the beginning of the month and then changed little under the drive of downstream low - price replenishment [89]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Outlook - **Supply**: The capacity clearance of the soda ash industry is expected to continue in November, but the mid - term price is still under pressure due to the expected release of 2.8 million tons of new capacity from Yuangxing Phase II [95]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand for light soda ash is supported, and the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry is expected to be stable [98][99]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the soda ash supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The price is affected by the progress of Yuangxing Phase II's production. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic. - The current price of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. The 01 - 05 spread lacks fundamental drivers and is more affected by macro factors [102].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.55 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.37 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.0% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 7.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5%. The net profit for Q3 was 0.81 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter [4][11][12]. - The company possesses leading production engineering capabilities and significant cost advantages in its products. The projects planned for the Dezhou headquarters and the Jingzhou base support future development. A diversified product portfolio may help mitigate operational fluctuations to some extent [11][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 23.55 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.37 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.36 billion yuan. In Q3, the revenue was 7.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin in Q3 was 19.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 11.4%, down 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11][12]. Market and Product Insights - The market prices for the company's main products in Q3 2025 showed a general decline, with urea down 5.5%, DMF down 1.0%, and acetic acid down 7.8%. Despite the pressure on product prices, the company managed to maintain stable quarterly performance [11][12]. - The company is expected to see an increase in production capacity with the launch of new projects, particularly in the Jingzhou base, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in the future [11][12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, and with continuous improvement in terminal demand and the elimination of outdated capacity, along with the gradual release of new capacity from the Jingzhou base, operational conditions are expected to improve [11][12]. - The company is actively exploring new downstream fine chemical materials to enhance product value, with several projects nearing completion, which will support long-term growth [11][12]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 3.01 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.50 billion yuan, respectively [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the short - term price trend of industrial silicon futures lies in the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. The industry has an expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but there are practical resistances in the process of capacity optimization. The cost of industrial silicon is mainly 30% electricity, so coal price fluctuations affect it. In November, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand shows different pulling effects, with polysilicon production scheduled to decline in November, organic silicon monomer plants having maintenance plans, and the aluminum alloy operating rate remaining stable. The market pricing logic is further inclined to polysilicon futures. [1] - In the short term, the price of industrial silicon futures will closely follow the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern. With the arrival of the dry season, the market logic will gradually revolve around power costs, and then the downward space of industrial silicon will be limited. [2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. There are resistances in the capacity optimization process due to the industry structure. The cost of industrial silicon is affected by coal prices. The supply is expected to increase in November, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand varies, and the market pricing logic is shifting towards polysilicon futures. [1] - Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year): The total production schedule of industrial silicon in October continues to increase, and the output on the supply side will reach the annual high. The policies of the downstream polysilicon industry will have an impact on the price of industrial silicon. [3] - Far - end trading logic (after the end of the year): The electricity price during the dry season will increase the production cost, and the price center of gravity will gradually move up. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand for industrial silicon is likely to weaken. [4] 1.2 Trading - based Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are: oscillation range 8400 - 9400; low - level range 7800 - 8300; high - level range 9500 - 10000. [5] - **Single - side strategy**: Short SI2601 at the high - level range; long SI2605 at the low - level range. [7] - **Month - spread strategy**: Reverse spread of SI2601 - SI2605. [7] - **Basis strategy**: Wait and see. [7] - **Option strategy**: Sell SI2601 - C - 9500 when the volatility is high; buy SI2601 - P - 8300 when the volatility is low. [7] 1.3 Industry Operation Suggestions - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.2% and a historical percentile of 68.0% in 3 years. [8] - For silicon industry enterprises, different hedging strategies are proposed according to different scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management, with corresponding hedging tools, ratios, and suggested entry intervals. [8] Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On October 26, the 100,000 - ton/year hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental protection project of Yongchang Silicon Industry successfully passed the acceptance of reaching the production standard. [9] 2.2 Next Week's Concerned Events No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trends**: The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract this week was 9095 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The trading volume was 372,319 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13.12%. The open interest was 408,543 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 16,059 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 47,253 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1074 lots. The price may weaken further, and key support levels need to be focused on. The market is in a state of equilibrium, and the wide - range oscillation range of 8600 - 9300 yuan/ton needs attention. [12][14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been decreasing, while the implied volatility of at - the - money options has been rising significantly. The option open - interest PCR has been increasing, indicating a growing bearish sentiment in the market. [16][17] - **Capital movement**: The net short positions of key industrial silicon seats have increased recently, indicating signs of institutional short - selling. [19] - **Month - spread structure**: The current industrial silicon futures contracts show a stable contango structure. [21] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is at the average level, and there is a relatively high probability of it strengthening further. [25] 2.2 Downstream Futures and Capital Trends - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon weighted index contract this week was 52,045 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%. The open interest was 231,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 lots. The month - spread of PS2601 - PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 9420 lots, a week - on - week increase of 810 lots. The net long positions are showing a slight increase. [27] - Aluminum alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy weighted index contract this week was 20,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 8407 lots, and the open interest was 26,300 lots. The month - spread of AD2512 - AD2601 was in a contango structure, and the number of warehouse receipts was 47,899 lots. The net long positions are increasing. [27] 2.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - Provides price data for various products in the industrial silicon industry chain, including different grades of industrial silicon, industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, polysilicon, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12, along with their daily and weekly changes. [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry is currently in a continuous repair channel. The polysilicon industry's profit is stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is decreasing. [32] Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Provides weekly production and operating rate data from different sources such as Baichuan, Steel Union, and SMM. The production of industrial silicon shows different trends, and the operating rates also vary. [36][38] - There are also inventory data for different regions and types of industrial silicon, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories at ports. [52][54][55] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon from SMM and Baichuan shows a decreasing trend, and the operating rate has a slight change. The weekly inventory of polysilicon shows different changes in different parts such as total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, and warehouse - receipt inventory. [56][58] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are increasing, and the inventory shows different changes. There are also seasonal data on production, operating rates, and PMI of aluminum alloys. [61][62] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is increasing slightly, and there are also data on monthly net exports and inventory of organic silicon products. [65][66] 5.5 Terminal - Provides data on China's real - estate sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, reflecting the terminal demand situation. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Terminal demand is strong, social inventory is continuously decreasing, creating a short - term supply - demand mismatch that drives up prices. As prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental source. Due to rising ore prices, cost support has shifted upwards. In the short term, prices are likely to move upwards under the supply - demand mismatch but face pressure. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,550 with a rise of 1,150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 74,300 with a rise of 1,150 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 81,120 with a 2.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 81,740 with a 2.43% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 81,900 with a 2.53% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,500 with a 2.57% increase; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,400 with a 2.36% increase [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 906 with a rise of 25; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1220 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1990 with a rise of 50; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7250 with a rise of 275; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8600 with a rise of 350 [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) has an average price of 34,970 with a rise of 335; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) has an average price of 157,200 with a rise of 100; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 137,100 with a rise of 400; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 136,950 with a rise of 250 [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 5350 with a change of - 1230; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 620 with a change of - 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 780 with a change of - 180 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a decrease of 2292; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 33,681 with a decrease of 602; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a decrease of 2460; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with an increase of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,739 with a decrease of 960 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 78,206 with a profit of - 2756; the cash cost of外购锂云母精矿 is 81,293 with a profit of - 7862 [3] Industry News - Appian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a bullish trend [1][4] - The market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, with active funds' reduction behavior nearing its end, reflecting a steady correction in investor confidence [4] Sector Analysis - Key sectors performing well include communication equipment, electronic components, consumer electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while gaming, wind power equipment, engineering consulting services, and mining sectors lagged [1] - The storage chip sector showed strength, with local stocks in Fujian performing well, and the computing hardware sector remained active [4] Economic and Policy Influences - Multiple factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session setting the tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and the easing of China-US trade relations are contributing to a gradual upward trend in the A-share market [1] - The market is expected to continue its slow upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the index has broken through key resistance levels, with significant volume expansion indicating active market sentiment [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous trading range, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4] Mid-term Outlook - Despite potential supply-demand pressures in the spring of next year, the gradual clearing of production capacity and the effects of policies are expected to stabilize the economic and market bottom, serving as a key driving force for a new market rally [4] - Supportive factors for the fourth quarter include anti-involution policies, increased household savings entering the market, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a reversal in technical indicators, suggesting a bullish outlook for A-shares [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, driven by multiple factors including the Fourth Plenary Session's groundwork for the "14th Five-Year Plan," the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and improved China-U.S. trade relations [1][2] - Various sectors performed differently, with communication equipment, electronic components, consumer electronics, and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance, while gaming, wind power equipment, engineering consulting services, and mining sectors lagged [1] - Technical analysis indicates that the index has broken through key resistance levels with significantly increased trading volume, reflecting a positive market sentiment and a gradual recovery of investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The storage chip sector showed strength, with local stocks in Fujian performing well, while soft drinks and engineering machinery sectors underperformed [2] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term, supported by the resolution of major macroeconomic events and a favorable technical outlook, with the potential for further gains as the index has broken out of previous trading ranges [2] - In the medium term, factors such as "anti-involution" policies, increased retail investor participation, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and technical reversals are expected to support a bullish trend in the A-share market for the fourth quarter [2]