Group 1: Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index experienced a significant fluctuation, breaking through the 162-point resistance level but quickly falling back, indicating a false breakout signal [3] - The commodity index has undergone a complete wave correction since peaking in October 2021 and is currently in a new upward phase, with the third wave of growth just beginning [3] - The internal structure of the index shows clear differentiation, with the coal sector leading the market due to supply-side reform expectations and active procurement from downstream steel mills [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a rebound in the South China Commodity Index, which has risen over 6% since June and more than 2% in July, driven by low valuations and marginal improvements in fundamentals [5] - The glass market has shown a notable response to policy expectations, with a significant increase in production and sales rates, particularly in Hubei, leading to a substantial reduction in national inventory [7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with strong price increases in sectors related to the new energy industry, black metals, building materials, and chemicals, while agricultural products remain relatively weak [8] - The black metal sector continues its rebound, with notable price increases in rebar and raw materials, while non-ferrous metals are experiencing volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The continuation of the strong market performance depends on three key variables: the realization of policy expectations, the matching of supply and demand rhythms, and the degree of demand fulfillment during peak seasons [10] - Historical data indicates that the fourth quarter is a traditional peak demand season for glass, with significant construction activity expected, which could positively impact prices if inventory reductions continue [11] - The commodity market is at a crossroads, with seasonal patterns suggesting an upcoming demand peak in the second half of the year, particularly for coal, oil, and petrochemical products [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have experienced three consecutive days of gains, raising questions about whether this trend reflects a "de-involution" market or genuine improvements in supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures have seen a notable increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The recent price movements suggest a possible recovery in demand or adjustments in supply levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The article discusses the balance between supply and demand, questioning if the current price trends are sustainable [1] - There is speculation on whether the gains are driven by real market improvements or speculative trading [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady upward trend with LME copper prices increasing by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton, while domestic copper prices rose by 2.47% to 79,900 yuan per ton. Supply-side pressures are evident as the processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$44.81 per ton, indicating potential supply constraints [1][13] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton. However, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises has decreased to 61.8%, reflecting ongoing demand challenges [2][14] - Gold prices have decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a reduction in SPDR gold holdings, indicating a temporary decline in gold's safe-haven appeal [3][15] - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by export controls and stable production levels, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics and potential price support [3][27][30] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices are on the rise, with a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in processing fees indicating potential supply issues [1][13] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing, but demand remains weak as indicated by declining operating rates in the industry [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and reduced investment interest [3][15] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The copper market is experiencing a robust demand outlook, with potential supply constraints due to declining processing fees and reduced operating rates in key sectors [1][13] 2.2 Aluminum - The aluminum market is stabilizing, but the demand outlook remains weak, as evidenced by declining operating rates in the aluminum cable sector [2][14] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decrease in ETF holdings, reflecting a temporary decline in its safe-haven status [3][15] 3. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and stable production levels, with potential price support anticipated [3][27][30] - The antimony market is facing downward price pressure, but upcoming regulatory changes may provide a demand boost [4][31] - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing, with low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel sector indicating a positive outlook [4][32] 4. Updates on Energy Metals - Lithium prices have shown slight declines, but production levels are increasing, indicating a stable supply outlook [5] - Cobalt prices have increased, reflecting strong demand in battery applications, while nickel prices are mixed with slight fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is resuming production increases, putting pressure on oil supply, while US oil production growth remains limited, suggesting global oil prices may stabilize within a mid-range [1] Investment Opportunities - Five major investment themes are recommended: 1. Low-volatility dividend-leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises 2. Large refining companies and other chemical sectors showing signs of recovery 3. Companies with overseas production bases 4. Sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements 5. Emerging demand in high-growth potential new materials industry [1] Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and ongoing projects in the large chemical sector are projected to decline from 984.8 billion to 897.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure and potential for industry recovery [1] Chemical Industry Profitability - The profitability of oil-based olefins is currently at a low point due to high oil prices, with ethane-based ethylene having a cost advantage of approximately 2000-2500 yuan/ton over oil-based and coal-based ethylene [3] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Certain chemical sub-sectors are showing signs of improvement, such as: - Pesticides: Prices may enter a recovery phase as supply stabilizes and seasonal demand returns - Refrigerants: A pricing cycle may begin following quota implementation - Civil explosives: Expected to benefit from national strategies like the Western Development [4] Globalization and Resource Opportunities - In the context of geopolitical instability, Chinese chemical companies with overseas bases may gain strategic advantages, while limited supply of quality mineral resources and rising extraction costs could push prices higher [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PTA market is expected to continue its upward trend due to tightening supply and improving demand dynamics, driven by seasonal factors and inventory reductions [1][4]. - Recent data shows that the overall PTA operating rate in China has dropped to 70.3%, significantly lower than the same period in the past three years, with multiple major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [2]. - The polyester sector has seen an unexpected increase in operating rates, reaching 94.2%, which is a new high for the year, alleviating previous concerns about low demand [3]. Group 2 - The social inventory of PTA has been decreasing, with the turnover days dropping to 13.36 days, indicating a continuous destocking trend [2]. - The upcoming summer season in Europe and the U.S. is expected to boost gasoline consumption, which may positively impact the aromatics market, particularly in the context of PTA and PX production [4]. - The overall supply of PTA is anticipated to remain tight in May, providing strong support for price increases, as the polyester industry shows robust production and sales performance [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - After the holiday, PX prices rebounded after a decline due to improved macro - atmosphere and supply contraction. The strong oil market provided cost support, and expected maintenance of domestic reforming and PX devices further pushed up prices [9]. - PTA prices first fell then rose, following crude oil fluctuations. After the May Day holiday, PTA prices initially declined due to the drop in crude oil prices but later rebounded as geopolitical tensions drove up oil prices. With many PTA device maintenance and high - load operation of downstream polyester, PTA inventory decreased, and the price rose due to the resonance of fundamentals and cost [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil: After the Sino - US talks, oil prices are expected to be strong, but the risk lies in Middle - East situation disturbances. PX: Multiple domestic reforming devices have parking plans, increasing the possibility of production cuts in supporting PX devices. Low PXN also increases the expectation of maintenance. PTA: There will still be many device maintenance in May, and the operating rate will be at a low level for the year. Polyester: The short - term operating rate is estimated to be around 90%, with limited announced maintenance plans, especially for large polyester manufacturers. The rigid demand remains good. Weaving: The开机 rate has increased, and the probability of short - term negative feedback is low [10]. - Overall: PX is expected to operate strongly in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton; PTA is expected to operate strongly in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Strategy recommendation: Long positions can gradually take profits [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,472 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton (4.29%) from April 29. The settlement price was 6,446 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton (3.37%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was - 233 yuan/ton, and the average domestic PX spot price was 6,091 yuan/ton, up 19.33 yuan/ton (0.32%) from the previous period [15][16]. - **PX Spot**: The highest weekly transaction price was 785 dollars/ton, and the lowest was 737 dollars/ton. The CFR China weekly average price was 763 dollars/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week; the FOB Korea weekly average price was 739 dollars/ton, up 1.73% from the previous week [18][20]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,582 yuan/ton, up 142 yuan/ton (3.20%) from April 29. The settlement price was 4,568 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton (2.73%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was 98.67 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 582.5 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton (1.75%) from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,597.5 yuan/ton, up 67.5 yuan/ton (1.49%) from the previous period [23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX devices have load - reduction or maintenance situations. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 60% load, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical reduces the load of its 200 - ton devices to 70% in early May [31]. - **Asian PX Devices**: Some Asian PX devices have maintenance or load - change situations. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time is postponed [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA devices are under maintenance in May, such as the 150 - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 250 - ton device of Honggang Petrochemical. The weekly operating rate has decreased by 2.53% [37][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Optimistic sentiment has returned to the market, and the prices of European and American crude oil futures have increased by more than 4% this week. On May 9, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 61.02 dollars/barrel, up 2.73 dollars/barrel from May 2, and that of Brent crude oil was 63.91 dollars/barrel, up 2.62 dollars/barrel from May 2 [44][46]. - **Naphtha**: The blending demand for European naphtha has increased, reducing the expected volume of East - West naphtha arbitrage. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.30 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.11 dollars/ton [52][54]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process economic efficiency of PX has significantly recovered. The weekly average of PXN was 209.44 yuan/ton, with a 13.45% change from the previous period. The PX - MX spread has also increased, but the overall cash - flow is still in a loss situation [57]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has significantly recovered, driven by device maintenance. In April, the PTA processing margin fluctuated widely, and the spot processing margin expanded to around 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [61]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased. As of May 9, it was 483.2 tons, down 14.5 tons from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories have increased by 0.08 days, while those of polyester factories have decreased by 0.25 days [66][67]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products have generally increased. The average market prices of semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased by 1.46%, 0.65%, and 1.33% respectively from the previous reporting period. The average weekly sales of polyester products from May 6 - 9 were estimated to be 60%, and the average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.18% [73][80]. - **Weaving**: The开机 rate of weaving factories has gradually increased. As of May 8, the开机 rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, circular looms in Xiaoshao, warp - knitting machines in Haining, and warp - knitting machines in Changshu have all increased [88].

Group 1: Transportation Sector Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on the transportation sector, particularly airlines, oil shipping, and highways, due to improving supply-demand dynamics and performance advantages in certain stocks [1] - For airlines, there is potential profit elasticity due to supply constraints, with the summer travel season expected to catalyze market performance [1] - Oil shipping is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which may boost shipping rates in May [1] - The highway sector showed stable performance in Q1 and is considered advantageous within the dividend sector, supported by risk-averse sentiment and interest rates [1] Group 2: High-End Liquor Market Outlook - CICC reports that the current demand for liquor is at a historical low (28th percentile over the past five years), indicating limited downside risk [2] - A more accommodative policy environment is expected to support a gradual recovery in liquor demand, with early 2023 economic data showing positive signs [2] - High-end liquor demand is projected to stabilize due to policy stimulation, while overall liquor performance may show a "first dip, then rise" trend throughout the year, particularly benefiting from low base effects in Q3 and Q4 [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - China Galaxy Securities highlights the positive outlook for the banking sector, driven by a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and liquidity releases [3] - Structural innovations in financial tools are expected to optimize bank credit structures, supporting both credit issuance and risk control [3] - The accumulation of positive fundamentals in the banking sector is likely to accelerate medium to long-term capital inflows, enhancing the sector's dividend value [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply and demand for aviation and oil transportation, suggesting a favorable outlook for ticket prices and freight rates [1][2][3] - It recommends focusing on alpha stocks with competitive advantages and high dividend yields, particularly in the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor policy changes and economic data that may influence risk appetite in the transportation sector [4] Aviation Sector - The report notes a steady increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, slightly above the overall inter-regional mobility growth of 7.1% [2][13] - It anticipates that ticket prices will gradually improve due to a low base effect, with expectations for a positive year-on-year change in ticket prices as supply growth slows [16][18] - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [22] Shipping and Port Sector - The report indicates that oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical events and a rebound in demand after the holiday season [3][34] - It forecasts a potential increase in container shipping rates in March, driven by seasonal demand recovery and price hikes on European routes [35] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of geopolitical events and U.S. tariff policies on shipping rates and demand [34][60] Road and Rail Sector - The report highlights significant improvements in highway freight traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in early 2025 [4] - It notes a slowdown in railway passenger growth and coal transport due to high inventory levels, indicating a need for careful observation in the coming months [4][5] Logistics and Express Delivery Sector - The report states that express delivery volumes have exceeded expectations, with year-on-year growth rates of 39% for collection and 42% for delivery [5][55] - It recommends focusing on leading express delivery companies, such as SF Express, which are expected to benefit from foreign investment in China [58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border logistics and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on e-commerce volumes [60]