Group 1: Major Asset & Overseas Events & Data - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.3% [2][3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 6.0 basis points to 4.4% [2][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1701 [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to $3332.5 per ounce [2][3][31] Group 2: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded market expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [51][52] - The primary driver of job growth was an increase in state and local government employment [51] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3% [51] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Risks - The 90-day "tariff suspension" on US imports is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about potential tariff increases [41][42] - Approximately 20 countries with slow negotiation progress may see the restoration of initial tariff rates unless recognized as "good faith negotiators" [41] - Vietnam is facing a potential 20% tariff on its goods, with a 40% tariff on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [41][42] Group 4: Treasury Auction Demand - The demand for US Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26 for the 4-week bill, indicating strong interest [44][45] - Indirect bids accounted for 78.6% of the total, marking a recent high [44][45] Group 5: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the summer, suggesting that the Fed would have lowered rates sooner without the tariff policies [47][49] - Some Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, focusing on short-term inflation impacts [47][49]

Group 1 - The current global uncertainty is at a decades-high level, driven by events such as Trump's tariff announcements and the Israel-Iran conflict [1][8] - The U.S. is facing a potential doubling of import tariffs if no trade agreements are reached by the end of the 90-day grace period [8] - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to impose new tariffs or import restrictions on various goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, following ongoing investigations [8] Group 2 - The existing tariffs could raise U.S. inflation by 0.9 percentage points over the next 12 months, with further increases if tariffs are restored to higher levels [11] - The impact of the proposed budget plan on inflation is minimal compared to the immediate effects of tariff increases [11] - If oil prices rise significantly due to geopolitical tensions, the inflation rate could increase by up to 2 percentage points, surpassing the effects seen in the UK and Eurozone [11] Group 3 - Despite rising risk indicators, U.S. stock investors remain optimistic, with the market currently overvalued by 15% compared to fundamental economic levels [13] - Historical data suggests that such overvaluation often leads to an average 7% correction in the S&P 500 index over the following three months [14] - The resilience of the U.S. stock market may be tested if uncertainties lead to high inflation or economic slowdown [16]

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Energy - Vietnam has signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with France [1] - Russia is in deep discussions with Bahrain regarding a liquefied natural gas supply agreement [1] - The US has invited officials from Japan and South Korea to Alaska to discuss cooperation, including a large natural gas pipeline project [1] - HSBC expects OPEC+ to announce an acceleration in supply increases in July, similar to May and June, with a pause in production increases expected in Q1 2026. The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $68.5 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel in 2026, with increasing downside risks [1] - Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum announced the arrival of a floating storage and regasification unit, ENERGOS POWER, from Germany with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, and plans to lease two additional units [1] Precious Metals and Mining - The Democratic Republic of the Congo aims to reach a mineral agreement with the US regarding eastern rebellion by the end of June [2] - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that the country has over $400 billion in unregistered gold reserves, which are not reflected in the banking system and reserves [2] - Citigroup has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce due to new tariff escalations, expecting gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. The target prices for platinum and palladium remain unchanged at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively [2] Agriculture - Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced a new government rice reserve release plan, moving away from bidding to direct contracts with large retailers, with a pre-tax price of 10,700 yen for 60 kilograms of brown rice, which is 47% cheaper than the most recent bid price [2]

Core Points - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated a willingness to visit the U.S. for trade discussions if a concrete trade proposal is presented [1] - Von der Leyen emphasized the need for a specific and mutually agreeable solution before any meeting with President Trump [1] - The European Commission announced potential additional tariffs on U.S. exports worth €95 billion if trade negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [1] - Von der Leyen expressed a preference for resolving issues through negotiations to avoid tariff escalation, while also preparing countermeasures if necessary [1]

联署企业一致反对"关税倒逼制造业回流"的逻辑。Nike、adidas等指出，运动鞋生产依赖精密模具与熟 练工人，转移产能将导致至少18-24个月断供，且美国缺乏配套产业链。据国信证券分析，鞋服类产品 加价倍数普遍为5倍，供应链利润空间仅能承受约5%的关税分摊，最终涨价压力将转嫁消费者。 目前，美国零售联合会已预警关税将加剧通胀，运动鞋均价或上涨10%。行业巨头正加速调整物流体 系，部分品牌将库存转移至美国本土仓库以缓冲冲击，但长期仍依赖政策调整。 联名信指出，鞋类制造回流美国需"巨额资本投入与数十年规划"，而当前供应链高度依赖越南、印尼等 亚洲生产基地。数据显示，Nike约50%、adidas 39%的鞋履产能集中于越南，两国合计贡献全球运动鞋 产量的60%以上。若加征关税，美国消费者将承担近100%的税负，工薪家庭购鞋成本或翻倍。 FDRA强调，鞋类平均关税已达11.3%，部分品类税率高达67.5%，若叠加25%新税，部分儿童鞋总税率 将飙升至220%，远超企业承受能力。平价品牌首当其冲，可能导致库存短缺与大规模倒闭潮。尽管美 国政府提出"90天暂缓期"，但越南、印尼等核心产区仍面临供应链中断风险。 （原标 ...

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...

来源：国际财闻汇 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 4月11日，特斯拉中国官网显示，目前 Model S / X 车型已不再提供单独的"订购新车"选项，目前相应车型页面中仅显示有"查看现车"按钮，点击"查看现 车"则可以看到一系列车型信息。 这意味着消费者无法再通过官网直接定制这两款车型的新车，仅能选择库存现车或二手车。 此次调整恰逢特朗普关税升级的关键节点。据悉，上述两款车型均由特斯拉美国工厂生产。 ...