Group 1: Consumer Goods - The core viewpoint indicates a significant rebound in U.S. retail sales, with June 2025 showing a month-on-month growth of +0.6%, surpassing market expectations of +0.1% and recovering from a previous decline of -0.9% [2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also increased by +0.5% in June, higher than the expected +0.3% and revised from a previous -0.2% [2] - The increase in retail sales is attributed to consumers' preemptive purchasing ahead of tariff expirations, although actual growth, when adjusted for price factors, was only +0.3% [2] Group 2: Export Data - In the first half of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively, with June showing monthly declines for electric tools and hand tools [3] - Cumulative export amounts to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers showed declines of -7%, -6%, and -4% year-on-year, indicating a cooling effect on exports due to tariffs [3] Group 3: Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are primarily exported to Asia, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key markets including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [4] - Forklifts and machine tools also have significant export markets in Asia and Europe, with respective export shares of 30% and 34% in 2024 [4] - The cumulative export value of construction machinery increased by 11% in the first half of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 65% [5][6] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - In June 2025, the export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories were 14%, 25%, 8%, and 20% respectively, with cumulative growth rates for the first half of 2025 reaching 11% [7] - The export of forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines showed varying growth rates, with machine tools experiencing a cumulative increase of 12% [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a positive feedback process of expectations, with steel prices continuing to rise. The macro - expectations boost the market, the futures prices rise significantly and are at a premium to the spot prices. Traders buy spot and sell futures, reducing the liquidity of spot and causing the spot prices to follow the upward trend [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, there are tariff disturbances, and macro - trading is temporarily inclined to maintain high interest rates, leading to an increase in the US dollar index. Domestically, the market is trading on supply - side expectations, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting [5]. - **Black industry chain**: During the off - season, steel demand exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback mechanism is not working well. The market is pricing in the peak - season demand in advance, and future attention should be paid to domestic policy stimuli [5]. 3.2 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (-16) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reversal opportunities [17]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - home transactions remain low, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction areas also remain low. In addition, as it enters the off - season, demand indicators show a seasonal decline [21][22]. - **Inventory**: MS weekly data shows that rebar inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [24]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 324 (-23) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 272 (-25) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 137 (-17) yuan/ton [32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reversal opportunities [38]. - **Demand**: The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, causing the demand for hot - rolled coils to weaken month - on - month. Also, the convergence of domestic and foreign price spreads has led to a decline in steel exports [42][43]. - **Inventory**: MS weekly data shows that the off - season demand slightly exceeds expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down [45]. - **Production**: Steel mills maintain high production levels [47]. - **Production profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 246 (-13) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 285 (-2) yuan/ton [51]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the historical data and trends of spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - roll spread, etc., providing a reference for understanding the price relationships between different steel products [53][54]. 3.5 Variety Regional Difference - It shows the regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc., which helps to understand the market price differences in different regions [61][62][63]. 3.6 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates, which is helpful for analyzing the supply - demand situation of these two products [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is experiencing a positive feedback loop, with steel prices expected to continue rising. The iron ore market is supported by macro - factors, leading to a valuation increase. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish as demand is being released. The ferroalloy market has a tight spot demand, and the cost is pushed up by the futures market [3][6][75][133]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Steel Market Outlook - The steel market is driven by positive feedback from expectations. Macro - factors include tariff disturbances overseas and a focus on supply - side expectations and waiting for the 730 Politburo meeting domestically. The off - season steel demand is better than expected, with low inventories, expanding steel mill profits, slow decline in hot metal production, and poor transmission of negative feedback [8]. 3.1.2 Threaded Steel - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (- 16) yuan/ton [21]. - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. In the off - season, demand indicators decline seasonally [22][26]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 324 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 272 (- 25) yuan/ton [38]. 3.1.3 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (- 3) yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production is in the off - season. The convergence of internal and external price differences has led to a decline in steel exports [47][48]. - **Inventory**: The off - season demand is slightly better than expected, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. Steel mills maintain high production levels [50][53]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 246 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 285 (- 2) yuan/ton [57]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Outlook - The supply of mainstream iron ore shipments continues to decline from a high level, but freight rates are stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Iron ore demand is strong, with hot metal production rebounding against the season and high port clearance. The "anti - involution" theme trading sentiment is strong, and the market expects potential "supply - side reform - like" interventions in the steel industry. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and bullish [77]. 3.2.2 Contract Performance - The main 09 contract price is volatile and bullish, closing at 785.0 yuan/ton, with an open interest of 693,000 lots (an increase of 31,000 lots). The average daily trading volume was 384,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 lots [79]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - Spot prices generally follow the futures market, with high - grade ore prices catching up. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) increased from 845 to 870 yuan/ton [83]. 3.2.4 Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Mainstream shipments decreased month - on - month, but freight rates stabilized and rebounded. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Overall shipments decreased month - on - month, and the recovery in Peru was limited. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in the southwest region increased, and the overall national capacity utilization rate stabilized [88][93][100]. 3.2.5 Demand - Hot metal production increased month - on - month in the off - season, and the port clearance volume remained at a high level compared to previous years. The substitution effect of scrap steel weakened as the price difference between scrap and hot metal decreased significantly [102][105]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventories has not arrived yet [110]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads - High - medium and medium - low grade ore price spreads both increased significantly. The PB lump - powder spread showed a slight narrowing trend. The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads strengthened, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed to the low level of the same period last year, while the 09 contract is close to par [119][124][125]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Market Outlook - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering but at a limited pace. The demand is increasing as blast furnace overhauls are completed and hot metal production is rising. The inventory will mainly be replenished based on rigid demand. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment after the coke price increase needs to be monitored [133][134][137]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly this week, with the sample coal mine raw coal output decreasing by 2.65 tons to 1227.88 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.18% to 85.43%. The independent coking plant's daily average coke output was 64.2 (+0.1) [136][139]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and coke enterprises and intermediate links actively purchased, but the overall arrival of coke at enterprises did not improve significantly [136]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill's coke inventory is at a medium level, but due to the influence of the futures market, traders' purchases have tightened the supply, and the steel mill's inventory has decreased. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared to last week [134]. - **Profit**: The profit of coking coal is 326 (+36), and the average profit of coke enterprises is - 65 (- 35) [139].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper continued its weak oscillating trend, hitting a low of 77,690. It has reversed all the gains since late June due to the early implementation of US tariffs, which pressured both the Shanghai and London markets. The premium between the spot and futures of Shanghai copper has significantly narrowed, and the spread between contracts 08 - 09 has dropped to 100. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has widened to 62. Meanwhile, the macro - tariff disturbances have increased, and the US dollar index has slightly risen. The factors that previously drove up the copper price have all reversed. [11] - With the opening of the domestic import window, the tightness in the spot market will continue to ease as imported supplies increase. The ratio of cancelled warrants in the LME market has dropped to 11.4%, and the spread between tomorrow - next also shows a contango structure. It is expected that there will be signs of spot supply relief in both the Shanghai and London markets, weakening the support of the spot end for the copper price. However, the medium - term supply - demand remains strong. China's economic resilience shown in the second - quarter data indicates decent macro - demand performance. Therefore, the previous oscillating range is still expected to strongly support the copper price. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's price has reversed gains since late June, with the spot - futures premium narrowing and spreads changing. The LME market also shows a more obvious contango structure. The macro - environment has become less favorable for copper prices, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still strong, and the previous price range is a strong support. [11] 2. Industry News - The National Energy Administration has officially included the Ganjiang - Gannan 1000 - kV UHV AC power transmission and transformation project in the national power development plan. The project plans to build a 1000 - kV substation in Gannan with 2 transformers of 3 million kVA each and 2 1000 - kV AC transmission lines about 600 kilometers long, which is a key step in expanding the UHV backbone grid in Central China during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. [12] - Zhongtiaoshan maintained stable production in the first half of the year, achieving full - load processing of concentrates. Cathode copper production reached 100.51% of the plan, anode slime production reached 116.99% of the plan, gold content in anode slime reached 100.07% of the plan, and silver content in anode slime reached 126.64% of the plan. Its operating income increased by 8.45% year - on - year, achieving stable profitability. [12] - Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton/year anode copper renovation project is in the pre - project stage, and Liangshan Copper's 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project is accelerating, aiming for trial production by the end of the year. [13] - In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4%. [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market has a complex situation with both supply - demand and external factor impacts [7] - Macroscopically, there are tariff disturbances as Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU on August 1st. The USDA July monthly supply - demand report shows a slight adjustment in the global cotton market, with total production up 310,000 tons to 25.78 million tons and total consumption up 80,000 tons to 25.72 million tons, and a slight accumulation of ending stocks. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream industry is weak, and short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain. However, considering the consumption off - season, tariff disturbances, and lack of weather - related impacts, the upside potential should be viewed with caution [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The cotton sales basis is different in different regions. The pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in downstream operating rates, stable yarn prices, and a slight increase in inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the market outlook for July and August is generally pessimistic [7] - **Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**: Tariff disturbances exist. The USDA report shows minor adjustments in the global cotton market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream is weak. Short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain, but the upside potential is limited due to the off - season, tariff issues, and lack of weather impacts [8] 3.2 Industry News - The agricultural rural department's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. Most cotton in China is in the budding to flowering stage, with a development period 4 - 7 days earlier than usual. There is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang in July. The cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in the off - season, and spinning mills are cautious in raw material procurement [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16]

1. 新华社报道，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇14日表示，如果美欧贸易谈判 失败，欧盟准备对价值720亿欧元（约合840亿美元）的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税。近期美国陆续 公布"对等关税2.0"的征税标准，市场避险情绪渐起。特朗普称，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌 冲突，美国将对俄罗斯实施"非常严厉的、大约100%的关税"。鉴于关税扰动仍在，金价短期回调不改 上行趋势，下方仍存在较强支撑。 2. 而随着加税预期推进，市场也在相应调高美国的通胀预期。周二晚间，美国将公布美国6月CPI数 据，市场预计整体CPI将从2.4%回升至2.7%，核心CPI预计从2.8%升至3%。目前利率市场隐含的9月降 息概率为60%，较非农公布时有小幅下降。若数据高于预期，有望刺激美元指数延续反弹，届时金价或 再次承压；若数据低于预期，则美元走弱或带动金价小幅反弹。此外，美国本周还将公布零售销售数据 和密歇根大学消费者信心指数，若美国消费情况向好，金价短期或延续回调态势。 美元指数 美国CPI大考将至，金价窄幅震荡 金十期货特约光大期货点评：7月14日，COMEX黄金震荡走弱，报收3352.1美元/盎司，跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that MP Materials will receive significant investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to enhance the domestic production capacity of rare earth magnets and potentially raise the price ceiling for praseodymium and neodymium products [4][9] - Short-term impacts on the industry are expected to be limited due to the time required for MP Materials' expansion, with the new magnet manufacturing facility projected to be operational by 2028 [5] - The report indicates that the price floor set by the U.S. government for praseodymium and neodymium products is significantly higher than current domestic prices, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pricing [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices have declined due to tariff disturbances and seasonal demand weakness, with domestic consumption showing a slight increase as prices fall [6][14] - Aluminum prices have also decreased, influenced by external market conditions and reduced demand from the aluminum rod and plate sectors [20][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases attributed to renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][26] Minor Metals - The report notes stability in antimony prices, with a prevailing bullish sentiment despite limited market transactions [8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a fundamental recovery, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to the positive sentiment from MP Materials' investment [9][42] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the near term, with a projected trading range of 77,500 to 79,000 CNY/ton [15] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 20,300 to 21,000 CNY/ton [21] - Gold and silver prices are predicted to continue their wide-ranging adjustments, with gold expected to trade between 750 to 800 CNY/gram [27]

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, primarily influenced by policy changes and the low probability of interest rate cuts in July, alongside the announcement of high tariffs on copper by the U.S., leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The short-term forecast for copper prices indicates a weak trend, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 77,500-79,500 CNY/ton and LME copper between 9,450-9,850 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Domestic aluminum prices initially fell before rebounding, with an average price of 20,696 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The market is influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and adjustments in tariff policies, leading to fluctuations in demand and inventory levels [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices suggests continued high-range fluctuations, with an average price expected around 20,650 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a stable range-bound movement with an average price of 16,950 CNY, slightly down by 0.06% [1] - The market lacks upward momentum for lead prices, although cost support limits downward movement, indicating a continuation of range-bound trading [1] - The short-term forecast for lead prices suggests a focus on the range of 16,800-17,100 CNY for spot prices [1] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs and seasonal factors, with expectations of a slight decline in prices [2] - Despite a relaxed supply outlook due to global zinc mine production increases, relatively low inventory levels provide some price support [2] - The anticipated range for next week's zinc prices is between 21,800-22,500 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and ongoing tariff disturbances, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Supply remains tight, but recent price declines have prompted downstream purchasing activity, indicating a potential for recovery in transactions [2] - The expected price range for tin next week is between 258,000-270,000 CNY, with a focus on macroeconomic developments and consumption trends [2] Group 6: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are on a downward trend, with an average price of 121,775 CNY, down by 710 CNY or 0.58% [3] - The market sentiment is bearish, influenced by falling nickel-iron prices and a lack of significant demand improvement [3] - The forecast for nickel prices suggests a potential rebound, with a trading range expected between 118,000-123,000 CNY [3]