Report Title - Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report, dated October 13, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 0.77%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is contracting while demand is weak. With a supply-demand imbalance, industrial contradictions are accumulating. Holiday inventory increased significantly, pressuring steel prices again. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The main contract futures price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory has increased significantly, and hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand and demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.13%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, iron ore demand is performing well, providing support for ore prices. However, supply is at a high level, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to deteriorate. Coupled with weakening market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, the upward driving force for high-valued ore prices is not strong. It is expected to maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Foreign trade data**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. - **Automobile market data**: In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market was 57.8%. National passenger vehicle retail sales in September were 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 17.005 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.7%. From January to September, passenger vehicle exports by manufacturers were 3.999 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 40.1% of total exports, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the same period [7]. - **Steel trade data**: In September 2025, China exported 1.0465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 95,500 tons and a month-on-month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, cumulative steel exports were 8.7955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 4,800 tons and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, cumulative steel imports were 453,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [8]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel spot prices**: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,237 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai were priced at 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, they were 3,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. Tangshan steel billets (Q235) were priced at 2,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was priced at 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore spot prices**: 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was priced at 796 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was priced at 812 yuan/ton, unchanged. Ocean freight rates from Australia were 9.58 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan/ton; from Brazil, they were 23.64 yuan/ton, down 0.52 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was priced at 106.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.49 US dollars/ton. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was priced at 107.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The highest price was 3,114 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,231,858 lots, an increase of 192,496 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,952,748 lots, an increase of 26,595 lots [11]. - **Hot-rolled coil futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The highest price was 3,295 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 557,390 lots, an increase of 143,388 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,422,524 lots, an increase of 24,873 lots [11]. - **Iron ore futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 804.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The highest price was 804.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 791.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 344,315 lots, an increase of 119,517 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 485,339 lots, an increase of 9,148 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot-rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), and related inventory data trends [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Included charts of 45-port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal changes, inventory month-on-month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [20][21][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratios, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situations [28][30][34]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Construction steel mill production was weak, and weekly rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons month-on-month. Supply contracted to a relatively low level, but the space for production cuts during the peak season was questionable, and inventory was high, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, rebar demand was weak during the holiday, weekly apparent demand decreased month-on-month, and high-frequency indicators were all at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry showed no signs of improvement, and weak demand would continue to suppress steel prices. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to post-holiday demand performance [35]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The supply-demand pattern continued to weaken. Plate steel mill production was weakly stable, and weekly production decreased by 14,000 tons month-on-month, but it was still at a high level for the year, and inventory was high, so supply pressure was relatively large, continuing to pressure steel prices. At the same time, hot-rolled coil demand was weak during the holiday, and weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons month-on-month. The relative positive factor was that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remained at a high level, providing support for hot-rolled coil demand. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the cold-rolled industry were not alleviated, and combined with limited improvement in external demand, there were concerns about hot-rolled coil demand. Hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [35]. - **Iron ore**: There were changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production was stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remained at a high level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with little overall change. Iron ore demand was performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market were constantly accumulating, and the resilience was expected to weaken, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, domestic port arrivals continued to recover, while overseas miner shipments declined slightly, both maintaining high levels for the year. Overseas supply was high under high ore prices, and combined with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of iron ore increased. It is expected that iron ore will maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2601 contract showed weak performance on Monday. Tariff disturbances will dampen market confidence in the short - term and may drag down the hot - rolled coil futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the open interest was 1,422,524 lots, up 24,873 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 47,015 lots, down 691 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 51,372 tons, up 2,058 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 178 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 89 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 140.2867 million tons, up 0.3132 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2329 million tons, down 14,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 836,000 tons, up 24,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.293 million tons, up 299,200 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 7.737 million tons, down 229,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile output was 2.8154 million vehicles, up 224,300 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.8566 million vehicles, up 263,200 vehicles. The monthly output of air - conditioners was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September 2025, China's steel exports were 10.465 million tons, up 955,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In September, China's steel imports were 548,000 tons, up 48,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 4.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. A survey of 20 steel mills in the Northeast region showed that 6 steel mills started maintenance in October, affecting the daily output by 35,000 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have increased significantly this year, driven by geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, expectations of US interest rate cuts, and trade tariff concerns [1][2] - As of October 13, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 897.66 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 29.9 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 927.56 yuan per gram [1] - The gold price has risen by 54% year-to-date, influenced by multiple factors including the announcement of a 100% tariff on US imports from China and export controls on key software by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, with another potential cut in December [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide new insights into monetary policy during his speech at the NABE annual meeting [2] - Geopolitical discussions regarding a ceasefire plan in Gaza among leaders, including Trump, are being closely monitored by the market [2] Group 3 - Hualian Futures suggests that short-term gold positions should have profit-taking strategies in place, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook [3] - The recent US fiscal issues and new high tariffs on imports are seen as beneficial for gold, potentially accelerating the Fed's rate-cutting pace [3] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing global political and economic instability [3]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in credit bonds, particularly focusing on the 2-3 year credit bonds which currently have a yield spread higher than the lowest point in 2024 by 4-15 basis points, indicating room for exploration [1][8][10] - The 4-5 year credit bonds have seen a widening of spreads, now higher than the 2024 average by 1-6 basis points, with yields ranging from 2.11% to 2.48%, suggesting a potential for value after adjustments in September [1][10] - The performance of bank perpetual bonds has been notable, with yields generally declining by 5-11 basis points and credit spreads narrowing by 1-8 basis points, presenting short-term trading opportunities [1][10] Group 2: Key Policies and Events - Tianan Insurance's inability to repay 5.3 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds marks the first default by an insurance company in China, raising concerns about governance and operational pressures [2][12][15] - The report outlines the timeline of Tianan Insurance's operational challenges, including governance issues, regulatory takeover, asset divestiture, and eventual bond default, which reflects broader risks in the insurance sector [2][13][14][15] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the potential contagion risks among insurance companies, especially regarding the non-redemption risks of subordinate bonds, as seen with other companies this year [2][15] Group 3: Market Overview - Recent weeks have shown a general decline in credit bond yields, with a notable performance from high-grade short-term bonds, particularly in the context of rising market risk aversion due to U.S.-China tariff policies [5][8] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite has slightly decreased compared to the third quarter, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the central bank, indicating a possible further decline in yields [5][9] - The report advises investors to seize opportunities for building positions in credit bonds during market adjustments, particularly in light of the recent tariff disruptions [5][9]

Core Insights - The report from GF Securities highlights that since 2018, tariffs imposed by Trump have created disturbances, but China's manufacturing competitiveness remains resilient and cannot be easily contained or replaced [1][2] - The capital market typically experiences a one-time "provision," followed by a "rebound" as events stabilize and a "hedge" as policies warm up in response to external shocks [1] - The intrinsic safety margin of assets is a more critical pricing factor compared to external disturbances [1] Group 1 - The report maintains a medium to long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and assets, noting that by 2024, there will be 463,000 high-tech enterprises in China, 1.7 times that of 2020, with over 570 industrial companies in the global R&D investment top 2500, accounting for nearly a quarter [2] - In the event of external demand shocks, the timing of counter-cyclical policy signals is often a crucial asset pricing coordinate, with expectations of concentrated growth stabilization in Q4 if external trade conditions fluctuate [2] - It is advised to moderately enhance asset allocation "broadly" to avoid excessive unilateral asset risk exposure, as the S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio averaged 39.2 in September, indicating a high level of intrinsic vulnerability compared to the trade war periods of 2018 and 2019 [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that the recent volatility in global asset classes triggered by Trump's tweets is likely a typical "TACO trade," where short-term declines provide good buying opportunities [3] - If a short-term sharp decline occurs due to liquidity shocks, the recommended sectors for allocation remain in domestic substitution related to AI computing power chips, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor lithography, and AI edge applications [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term, fluctuate in the medium - term, and bearish for the day. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that tariff disturbances have affected the market, causing the ore price to fall under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is bearish. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that tariff disturbances have affected the market, leading to a decline in ore prices under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Trump's statement on imposing tariffs on Chinese goods on social media has weakened market sentiment and put pressure on risk funds. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little, with stable steel mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports during the holiday was high, overseas ore shipments were active at high prices, and domestic ore supply will resume after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. In general, the ore demand is okay, supporting the price, but supply remains high, demand resilience is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are expected to deteriorate, and the market is weakening due to tariff disturbances, so the ore price will fall from a high level in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook amidst current market conditions [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by policy support and a focus on internal demand as a core driver [14]. - The report highlights the defensive characteristics of quality state-owned developers during market disruptions, particularly in response to tariff impacts [15]. - Commercial real estate is identified as having strong recovery potential, with specific companies like New Town Holdings and China Resources Mixc showing significant alpha during market sentiment recovery [16][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 0.82%, underperforming the broader market by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed the market with a gain of 1.25%, exceeding the Hang Seng Index by 4.39 percentage points, ranking 4th among 12 sectors [36]. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 940 million yuan this week, with a net financing amount of 939 million yuan. Cumulative issuance reached 337.01 billion yuan, with a net financing deficit of 38.57 billion yuan year-on-year [20][42]. Housing Market - New housing transaction volumes decreased by 11.69% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions increased by 4.33% year-on-year, indicating a mixed recovery in the housing market [6]. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in 100 cities increased by 7.07% and 18.60% respectively, with a rise in premium rates by 4.83% [5]. REITs Market - The REITs index saw a slight decline of 0.31%, with the property-type REITs index down by 0.51% and the franchise-type REITs index down by 0.07% [44].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The overall manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold[7] - New export orders improved to 47.8%, the best level in six months, while import PMI reached 48.1%, the highest in seven months[7] - Small enterprises showed the most significant improvement in PMI, rising to 48.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points, compared to a 0.2 percentage point increase for large enterprises[7] Group 2: Internal Demand and Policy Impact - The marginal improvement in the PMI is primarily driven by changes in internal demand, influenced by recent policy measures such as the revision of the Price Law and the regulation of competitive order[7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue to support the recovery of internal demand, with production and procurement indices showing better performance than new orders and backlog orders[7] - The service sector's PMI remains above the expansion threshold, with business activity expectations in the service sector consistently above 55% for the past 12 months, indicating robust growth[7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Internal demand narratives are expected to replace tariff disturbances as the core variable for economic observation in the next phase[7] - The overall non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points but remains resilient, primarily affected by the construction sector[7] - As external trade shocks gradually dissipate, the policy focus on expanding internal demand will further manifest in economic data[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances affect the black sector. In the industrial aspect, the decline in iron ore shipments and the increase in molten iron production boost the spot demand. The expectation of stockpiling before the National Day holiday may support the iron ore futures and spot prices to run strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 785 for the I2601 contract and control the operation rhythm and risks. Also, it is suggested to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 799.5 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 848 (+11) yuan/dry ton [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2329.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 572.5 million tons [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2572.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2448.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1320.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.2 million tons [6] - The average daily molten iron production was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [6] - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1632.42 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8993.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53.18 million tons [6] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [6] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August only increased by 22,000, far below the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Mexico plans to raise the import tariff rates of about 1400 tariff items such as automobiles, toys, steel, textiles and plastics to 10% - 50% for countries including China that have not signed free - trade agreements with Mexico. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the next - stage work focus, promoting capacity management in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries [8] - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, while the domestic port inventory continued to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron production returned above 2.4 million tons [8] - Technical aspect: The center of gravity of the iron ore I2601 contract moved up, the daily K - line moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis, and the red column was stable [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2601 contract was weaker than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 12th was 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton [14] - On September 12, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 34074 lots, an increase of 9065 lots compared with the previous week [22] - On September 12, the 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 72.1 million tons week - on - week [31] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 30.40 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume increased by 14.06 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 65.51 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 101.26 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 27.85 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 53.18 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills increased by 15.98 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.53 days [34] - As of September 11, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On September 11, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2111, a week - on - week increase of 132 [39] - In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 60.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%; the average daily fine powder production was 382,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,000 tons; the inventory was 341,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 129,000 tons [42] - In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 86.325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 595.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The fine iron powder output of 433 domestic iron mines in July was 23.119 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 185,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 326,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel import was 3.977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [49] - On September 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.20 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 171,700 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - With the significant recovery of molten iron production, the spot demand for iron ore increases. The expectation of steel mills to stockpile before the National Day holiday may support the strong operation of ore prices. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index dropping nearly 4% and most constituent stocks declining [1] - Major stocks such as Kelun-Botai Biopharmaceutical, CanSino Biologics, and Zai Lab fell over 5%, while China Biologic Products and 3SBio dropped over 4% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) saw a price drop of over 4% but later reduced its decline, indicating positive buying sentiment with a real-time premium rate exceeding 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index has risen 101.58% year-to-date as of July 31, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index by 78.08 and 79.53 percentage points, respectively [2] - The ETF is the first in the market to track this index, focusing on the innovative drug industry chain with a high concentration of leading companies [2]