Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The current situation of the Federal Reserve is expected to boost expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that waiting another six weeks for a rate cut is acceptable, suggesting a potential move towards easing monetary policy [2] - President Trump’s desire to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair may be progressing, with Waller expressing willingness to accept the position if nominated [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - As of July 18, the number of active U.S. oil rigs was recorded at 422, slightly down from 424, indicating that U.S. oil production is likely to remain at relatively high levels [3] - OPEC+ plans to complete the final phase of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply by September, with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels [3] - The U.S. gasoline inventory has unexpectedly increased despite a decline in refinery utilization, suggesting that the peak of U.S. oil demand may be approaching [3] Group 3: Japanese Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing high-level range-bound adjustments, with a potential continuation of this trend [4] - The 20-day moving average is beginning to turn downward, indicating a risk of further declines in the market [4] Group 4: Gold Market Focus - Recent actions by the Federal Reserve have become a focal point for the market, with challenges to its independence arising from criminal charges against Chairman Powell for alleged false statements [6] - Congressional investigations are ongoing regarding the expansion of the Federal Reserve building project, which may impact market perceptions [6]

Group 1: Economic Data Insights - June export data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% compared to the expected 3.6%[15] - June financial data also surpassed expectations, with new credit at 22,400 billion CNY against an expected 18,447 billion CNY[21] - The overall economic data in June showed significant supply-demand divergence, with industrial value-added growth at 6.8%, above the expected 5.5%[29] Group 2: Market Trends and Reactions - The stock market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%[13] - The nominal GDP growth gap increased, indicating a persistent low nominal growth, which is a core issue in the current economic fundamentals[30] - The real GDP growth for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, suggesting that the annual target is likely to be met[30] Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The central urban work conference did not present any unexpected statements, and expectations for real estate policy have somewhat receded[13] - The market sentiment was supported by resilient exports and improved financial data, despite the weak demand reflected in June's economic data[30] - The divergence in economic data indicates a stronger supply than demand, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market[30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Volatility jumps should be guarded against, and non - dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States on most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm payrolls in the US were better than expected again, with a significant rebound in government employment and a large decline in private - sector employment. The proportion of permanent unemployment increased, and the number of continued unemployment claims also continued to rise. Coupled with the slowdown in hourly wage growth, it indicates concerns in the job market. On July 4, the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly to 5.8% year - on - year, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of China's export volume in June increased by 1.0 percentage points compared with May. The recovery of exports to the US was the main boost, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US increased by 18.4 percentage points compared with May, possibly mainly benefiting from the "rush to import" in the US after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs in May. In addition, exports to ASEAN remained at a high level, and the "rush to re - export" continued to play a role. In June 2025, the national consumer price rose 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices falling 0.3%, non - food prices rising 0.1%, consumer goods prices falling 0.2%, and service prices rising 0.5%. On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity." As early as July 2024, the Politburo meeting raised the issue of "involution" to the central level. Commodities oriented to domestic demand such as coking coal, rebar, and glass, as well as polysilicon, which has been falling since the beginning of the year, were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy during the week [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiated. Domestically, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock market sentiment has rebounded, and the bond market maintains a volatile outlook. Stock index futures continue a moderate upward trend but are affected by insufficient incremental funds and are expected to fluctuate. Stock index options should be maintained with caution due to the continuous deterioration of option liquidity and are expected to fluctuate. Bond market sentiment has weakened for treasury bond futures, and they are affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Risk appetite has risen, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Sentiment has declined, and attention is paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention is paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Market sentiment leads, and attention is focused on the realization of positive factors. Steel products have continuous positive news and strong performance on the disk, affected by the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore has limited fundamental negatives, and macro sentiment boosts the ore price, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Coke has limited supply - demand contradictions, and the first round of price increases has started, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Coking coal has slow supply recovery and slow upstream de - stocking, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Silicon iron has little supply - demand contradiction and follows the sector's fluctuations, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement, and is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon has limited supply - demand drivers and follows the sector's operation, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Glass stimulates speculation on the disk, and inventory has slightly decreased, affected by spot production and sales, and is expected to fluctuate. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate, affected by soda ash inventory, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The game of reciprocal tariffs vs. the expectation of domestic policy stimulus, non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper is affected by the possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper, and its price is under pressure, affected by supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations, and economic recession, and is expected to fluctuate. Alumina is affected by the rumor that the mining license incident has eased, and the alumina disk has declined, affected by ore production not recovering as expected, electrolytic aluminum production recovering more than expected, and extreme sector trends, and is expected to fluctuate. Aluminum has a large inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is under pressure to decline, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Zinc has a supply - demand surplus, and the zinc price fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply recovering more than expected, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Lead has a solid cost support, and the lead price fluctuates, affected by supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports, and is expected to fluctuate. Nickel has increased nickel ore exports from Philippine nickel enterprises, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates widely, affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply not being released as expected in some links, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Stainless steel has a weakening nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel disk runs weakly, affected by Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Tin has a resilient supply - demand fundamental, and the tin price fluctuates, affected by the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is affected by the continuous "anti - involution" sentiment, and the silicon price has rebounded, affected by unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations, and is expected to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate is affected by the speculation of supply disruptions under the "anti - involution" background, and the lithium carbonate position has increased and the price has risen, affected by demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil has supply pressure, and attention is paid to geopolitical disturbances, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations, and is expected to fluctuate. LPG's disk returns to trading the fundamental looseness, and the PG disk may fluctuate weakly, affected by cost - end progress such as crude oil and overseas propane, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Asphalt futures continue to fall, affected by unexpected demand, and are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil's discount continues to fall, and its weakness is strengthened, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil's low - high sulfur spread continues to rebound, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Methanol has a decline in domestic operation against an increase in imports, and it fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Urea has a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand that is difficult to change, and it depends on exports to drive, affected by market transaction conditions, policy trends, and demand realization, and is expected to fluctuate. Ethylene glycol has a stable basis, and devices are restarting one after another, and it continues to fluctuate, affected by ethylene glycol inventory, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. PX is stable for the time being, and it fluctuates strongly, affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities, and is expected to fluctuate. PTA has a weakening supply - demand situation and a strong cost - end PX, and it fluctuates, affected by polyester production, and is expected to fluctuate. Short - fiber has a falling basis, rising processing fees, and its absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations, affected by terminal textile and clothing exports, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Bottle chips start to be overhauled, and the bottle - chip processing fees reach the bottom, affected by the later start - up of bottle chips, and are expected to fluctuate. PP is driven by commodity sentiment and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Plastic has limited spot support and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Styrene is in a driving vacuum period and fluctuates, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. PVC has strong expectations and weak reality and fluctuates, affected by expectations, costs, and supply, and is expected to fluctuate. Caustic soda's spot price continues to rebound, and it is cautiously optimistic, affected by market sentiment, start - up, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - There may be La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the sentiment of going long on protein meal. Oils are affected by the good growth of US soybeans, and market sentiment has weakened, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and are expected to fluctuate. Protein meal, corn, and starch may have a La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the market sentiment of going long. Protein meal is affected by US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situations, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Corn is affected by demand falling short of expectations, macro - situations, and weather, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Rubber is supported by macro sentiment, and the rubber price runs, affected by producing - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes, and is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber fluctuates on the disk, affected by large fluctuations in crude oil, and is expected to fluctuate. Pulp is dominated by macro factors and rises within the range, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Cotton's price fluctuates narrowly, affected by demand and output, and is expected to fluctuate. Sugar is affected by changes in imports, affected by abnormal weather, and is expected to fluctuate. Logs are in a dilemma and fluctuate, affected by shipment volume and dispatch volume, and are expected to fluctuate and decline [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The report is generally cautious about the trend of the bond market, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and bullish on the long - term trend of precious metals. It also provides specific trading strategies for various futures products based on their fundamentals and market conditions [6][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in bond futures. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold - buying behavior, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel and Iron Products - **Thread and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity limit price rebounds. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to end and then consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Policy expectations have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price is highly valued. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the over - capacity situation remains. Short - term long - positions and mid - term short - positions can be considered [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess. If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. The main contract can be considered for short - selling [22][23][24]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Consider mid - term long - positions [27][29]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [30][33]. - **Urea**: The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it can be treated as bullish in the medium - term [34][35]. - **PX**: The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [36]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and it may oscillate under pressure. Interval trading is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the low - level inventory provides support. Interval trading is the main strategy [38][39]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - term fundamentals lack drive, and it may follow cost fluctuations. Be cautious about the repair space of processing margins [40]. - **Bottle Chips**: The raw material price oscillates, and the device maintenance increases. The market is expected to follow the cost oscillation [41][42]. - **Soda Ash**: The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the downstream demand is weak. The market oscillates with weak stability [43]. - **Glass**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Driven by the energy sector, it is expected to rebound in the short - term [44][45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but the overall positive support is limited [46][47][49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate [50][51]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US tariff increase on copper has led to price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is uncertain [54]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. - **Nickel**: The consumption expectation is improving, but the actual consumption is not optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate [56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the cost provides support. Consider long - positions for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after a decline [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. Consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian crop weather has improved, and the price rebound is limited. Consider long - positions on the oil - meal ratio [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. - **Apples**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and it is recommended to short at high prices [69][70]. - **Pigs**: The short - term price may be stable with a narrow adjustment, and it is advisable to short at high prices after observing the weight - reduction in the south [71][72][73]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [75][76][77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the starch market follows the corn trend. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80]. - **Logs**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [82][83].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July 31st hearing of the US Federal Appellate Court may set the tone for subsequent tariff frictions. If the court does not support the new tariff policy, more trading partners may announce counter - measures, causing greater chaos in the US financial market. If it supports, the market may be relatively calm. Concerns about stagflation risks and trading partners selling US Treasuries are the biggest risk points in the US financial market [2][10]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative will ease the inertia of low inflation. Since October 2022, China's PPI has declined year - on - year for 33 consecutive months, while CPI has stabilized. The downstream price trend supports the upstream to improve quality and stabilize prices through "anti - involution", promoting the narrowing of the PPI decline [2][15]. - The producer price index for means of production continued to rebound. From July 7th to 12th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased week - on - week, while the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased, while the prices of LME copper and aluminum decreased. The producer price index for means of production increased 0.60% week - on - week and decreased 8.01% year - on - year in the week of July 4th [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The US Federal Appellate Court hearing on July 31st may determine the direction of subsequent tariff frictions. The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on the US financial market, especially on US Treasuries and the US dollar exchange rate. Concerns about stagflation and trading partners selling US Treasuries are major risks [10][11]. - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell exacerbates market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. However, the uncertainty of US inflation amplified by tariffs will not fundamentally change due to the change of the Fed Chairman [13]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative can help ease the inertia of low inflation. The decline in PPI may narrow, and its rebound amplitude may depend on the stabilization of real estate and commodity export prices [15]. 3.2 High - Frequency Data and Comparison of Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names.

Group 1 - The asphalt market has maintained a lukewarm trend for two consecutive months, with the upcoming demand peak raising concerns about price direction and space logic [1] - The main divergence in the asphalt market is between the downward pressure on the cost side and the seasonal inventory reduction logic [1] - OPEC+ is accelerating its production increase, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on oil prices, despite short-term support from downstream demand [1][2] Group 2 - The asphalt market has initiated a destocking process, with social inventory decreasing due to construction activities in northern regions [2] - The current low factory inventory rate of around 16% continues to provide solid support for asphalt prices [2] - Although refinery profits have slightly recovered, asphalt output remains limited due to the diversion of raw materials for gasoline and diesel [2] Group 3 - The current crack spread ratio of asphalt relative to Brent crude oil is high but not at extreme levels, indicating a favorable valuation structure [3] - Despite a weak supply-demand balance in the short term, the seasonal effect is expected to support the fundamental valuation of asphalt [3] - The asphalt market's trend is still dependent on the oil market, and a cautious approach is recommended due to the lack of strong upward momentum in crude oil prices [3]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows positive signs with the easing expectation of global tariff frictions and the decline of the US dollar index, but some commodities face fundamental pressures and potential risks [2]. - Most commodities are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand patterns of some commodities will gradually become more relaxed [2][7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity and a slight decrease in the aluminum product start - up rate. Although the macro - environment is favorable, the fundamentals face the dual pressures of weakening demand and weakening cost support, so it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina factory's production is stable, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production. With the weak operation of the US dollar index and the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the alumina futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the price rebounded. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand has some uncertainties. After the futures price rebounds, the rebound amplitude may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The domestic supply elasticity is greater than the demand elasticity. The production is expected to reach a new high in June, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices above 65,000 yuan [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is affected by the cost - end and the production situation. The short - term capital attention is high, and it is recommended to wait and see if there are anti - involution actions in the industry [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a narrowing futures premium and high valuation. It is expected that the steel futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. The futures are slightly at a premium to the spot. It is expected that the coking coal futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic soybean arrivals will be large later, and the unilateral trend follows the international cost end. It is necessary to focus on the USDA report [4][5]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand this year has tightened marginally. The spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **White Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly later, and it is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock the futures price for sugar users [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton export sales have decreased, and the domestic downstream start - up rate has declined. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound strategy [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand for exports has increased. The short - term supply - demand is increasing, and it is in a relatively balanced state. It is recommended to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is affected by low prices. The cost provides support, and the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The short - term pig price is expected to be strong, and the medium - term supply will continue to increase, and the price center will gradually move down. It is recommended to pay attention to the enterprise's slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [6]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing varieties' opening prices will affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is improving marginally. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals change little. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the social inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to sell call options above 4,950 yuan [7]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply of PX and PTA is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short the processing margin at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing steadily, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short lightly above 14,000 yuan, and hold positive arbitrage positions in RU - NR [8]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak. The supply will increase in July, and the inventory is difficult to digest. It is recommended to short at high prices for hedging [8]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term market will oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: The supply is at a high level and has room for further increase. The inventory is at a low level. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The short - term demand support is strong, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply inventory is accumulating slightly in the short - term, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the export demand. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Ethylene Benzene (EB)**: The short - term pure benzene and styrene inventories are accumulating slightly. The demand is affected by the profit situation and export prospects. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has some problems. It is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [9][10].