Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver continued to be strong with large intraday fluctuations. The US government shutdown and tariff frictions increased market uncertainty, and the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction strengthened the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, but in the short term, the rising speed of gold and silver is too fast, with obvious overbought signs on the disk and high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Fed Governor Milan called for an accelerated pace of interest - rate cuts, but the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP, and he said that two more rate cuts this year are realistic; apart from gold, there is no risk premium in the market [1] Other Summaries US Economic Situation - The Federal Reserve said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, and the employment level has generally remained stable. Overall consumer spending has declined slightly, while prices continue to rise, and several Fed districts reported an accelerated increase in input costs. The cost increase caused by tariffs has been reported in many districts, but the degree of transmission of these higher costs to final prices varies [2] International Events - The Trump administration authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela, and Trump confirmed this news. Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume operations at his order [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff tensions initiated by the Trump administration are not expected to have a significant long-term impact on the market, as the real determinants of Chinese asset performance are domestic economic and policy developments [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The tariff disputes initiated in April led to a significant drop in global risk assets, but a quick policy softening by the Trump administration resulted in a rebound, with major asset prices returning to pre-tariff levels within about a month [1][2]. - The U.S. government faces internal pressures that make it difficult to maintain high tariffs in the long term, as such policies contradict economic principles and can lead to adverse effects on the U.S. economy and financial markets [2][3]. Group 2: China's Competitive Edge - China's supply-side competitiveness remains strong, and emerging economies are unlikely to quickly replace China's manufacturing capabilities, which limits the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs [2][3]. - Following the April tariff experiment, China has gained valuable experience in responding to such external pressures, leading to more effective policy measures and support for risk assets [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The market has developed a "memory" of the previous tariff impacts, which may lead to a more measured response to current tensions, as investors recall the rapid recovery following the April tariffs [4]. - Current macroeconomic confidence and expectations in China are stronger than in April, supported by effective policy measures and a resilient supply-side [4].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality. In response to increased external pressure, the government has frequently proposed growth - stabilizing policies. China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, but exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter. [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28th to November 1st. [2] - The US government is in a shutdown, and the market has relatively underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - In the commodity market, gold, non - ferrous metals and other sectors are worthy of attention. It is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: China's economic data in August showed signs of weakness. To cope with external pressure, new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan were introduced. In September, exports and imports in US dollars both exceeded expectations. However, exports may face pressure in the fourth quarter due to high bases and Sino - US frictions. On October 14th, A - shares closed down, while some commodity futures rose. [1] - **Tariff Frictions**: Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated recently. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on imported products. China has also taken counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit. [2] - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government has been shut down for three weeks, and economic data release has been affected. Trump has threatened to fire federal employees during the shutdown. The market has underestimated the severity of the situation. [3] - **Commodity Market**: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long - term supply constraints. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Gold is expected to continue to strengthen, mainly driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals at low prices. [5]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.54%, S&P 500 futures down 0.85%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.11% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.07%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.31%, France's CAC40 down 0.89%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.94% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.98% to $58.31 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.86% to $62.14 per barrel [4] Economic Events - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy," which may influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and overall monetary policy [5] Company Earnings and Performance - Morgan Stanley reported Q3 trading and investment banking performance exceeding expectations, with GAAP EPS of $5.07 and revenue of $47.1 billion, up $1.53 billion year-over-year [7] - Ericsson's Q3 profit doubled despite a 9% decline in sales, with adjusted EBIT reaching 15.5 billion SEK (approximately $1.62 billion), exceeding analyst expectations [8] - BlackRock attracted $205 billion in Q3, reaching a record asset management size of $13.46 trillion, driven by strong inflows into ETFs [9] - Johnson & Johnson raised its full-year sales forecast, reporting Q3 revenue of $24 billion, a 6.7% increase year-over-year, and plans to spin off its orthopedic business [10] - Goldman Sachs achieved record Q3 revenue of $15.18 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, with investment banking fees significantly surpassing expectations [11] - Wells Fargo reported Q3 net interest income of $11.95 billion, slightly below expectations, but investment banking fees rose 25% year-over-year [12] Legal and Regulatory Issues - Microsoft faces a consumer class-action lawsuit alleging it engaged in a secret agreement with OpenAI to monopolize computing power, resulting in inflated prices for ChatGPT [13] Technological Developments - Nvidia launched a compact AI supercomputer, potentially creating a new growth point for its performance and impacting the AI computing industry positively [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Positive" for the gold market [5]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to increased market risk aversion, driving gold prices to new historical highs, with spot gold reaching over $4060 per ounce on October 13 [3]. - The impact of the current round of US-China trade friction is expected to be limited, as both economies have developed a basic understanding of each other's economic resilience, and upcoming high-level negotiations may lead to a consensus [4]. - The gold market is unlikely to replicate the bull market seen during the previous US-China tariff conflict, as the likelihood of tariffs being implemented is low, with only a 16.5% chance according to Polymarket data [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the US stock indices fell significantly due to the trade tensions, with the Dow Jones down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 2.71%, and Nasdaq down 3.56% on the announcement day [3]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, supported by strong buying interest as the market digests the impact of trade tensions [5]. Economic Indicators - The US government is facing a shutdown crisis, which raises concerns about the stability of the US dollar and sovereign debt, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 95.7% probability, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [7][14]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in gold-related companies, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), and Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SH) as potential targets [7].

平安观点： 海外方面，近期公布的数据仍然好坏参半：9 月美国 ISM 服务业 PMI 表现疲 软，读数从 52 降至 50，主要是新订单从 56 降至 50.4（图表 1）；但是标普 公布的服务业 PMI仍处于高位。劳动力市场数据也是如此：ADP 报告 9 月新 增就业减少 3.2 万人，8 月数据则下修至-3000 人（图表 2），但初请失业金 人数表现稳健，截至 10 月 3 日各州最新公布的未经季调的初请失业金人数 为 20 万人，仍保持在近几周的波动区间内，代表就业市场仍处于低就业、 低裁员的场景。考虑到近几个月就业市场的疲软，叠加 9 月的点阵图中预计 年内至少还有一次降息的人数达到 12 人，我们预计 10 月底美联储仍有可能 继续降息 25BP。 同时短期市场不确定性正在上升。特朗普在社交媒体发文称，要从 11月1日 起对中国的商品加征 100%关税。美国关税摩擦再起，不过从市场交易情况 看，定价幅度小于 4 月：10 月 10 日 VIX 指数上升 5 个点至 21.7，小于 4 月 3 日（图表 3）；10 年美债利率下行 9BP，comex 黄金期货上涨 0.63%，暂 时没有出现 4 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term volatility, Hong Kong stocks are currently attractive in terms of valuation, highlighting their medium to long-term investment value [1][4] - The market has already factored in some short-term pessimism, with expectations of a rebound due to technical factors, although the extent of this rebound may be limited by ongoing tariff disputes [3][4] - The current decline in Hong Kong stocks may present a good opportunity for investors to position themselves in quality assets, as valuations are more appealing compared to other major global markets [4] Group 2 - The historical pattern of negotiations suggests that after extreme pressure, parties are likely to return to the negotiation table, with recent signals indicating a potential for easing tensions and intensified discussions in October [3] - The strategy moving forward is to remain calm and rational, closely monitoring developments while gradually increasing holdings in fundamentally strong assets that are now in a deep value range due to market fluctuations [4]

10月13日，受关税摩擦升级影响，三大指数集体回调，截至午间收盘，有色金属ETF基金(516650)下跌0.18%，细分有色板块表现分化，稀土、黄金概念大 涨，铜铝板块领跌，其持仓股北方稀土涨9.03%，中国稀土涨8.07%，盛和资源涨6.76%；北方铜业领跌7.03%，博威合金、云南铜业、江西铜业等股纷纷重 挫。 流动值得注意的是，近日，有色金属ETF基金(516650)持续获资金布局，近6日连续获资金净申购，累计吸金6.6亿，截至10月10日，最新份额达9.04亿份，最 新规模达15.40亿元，均创成立以来新高。 来源：智通财经 消息面上，近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。 国泰海通分析指出，叠加近期美经济数据表现尚 可，市场同时交易降息后海外需求回升逻辑。但近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。中美关税博弈再 起，或再度冲击需求预期，市场短期交易或围绕避险需求展开。对于贵金属而言，避险情绪溢价或继续支撑金价，而工业品可能面临阶段性承压，但参考4 月对等关税后价格表现，当前海外需求并未受到实质冲击，短期震荡或是工业 ...