1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][8][9][11][13][14][16][17]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" associated production - cut expectation benefits have temporarily ended. Steel price upward momentum is weak due to impacts on finished product exports and lackluster spot price follow - up. However, high - temperature weather supports coal prices, and the iron ore shipment rush is basically over, with the furnace material fundamentals being acceptable. The industry's fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, with limited contradictions in each link. Iron water has slightly declined but remains at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are low, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and the degree of demand weakening [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly shipment rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and steel enterprises' iron water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2][8]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Two coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, resumed production last weekend, with a total production capacity of 8.4 million tons, and the regional supply has recovered. Other regions' coal mines have basically maintained their previous production rhythms, and the overall supply is gradually increasing. On the import side, the Mongolian coal port transactions are active, and the regulatory area inventory continues to decline, but the China - Mongolia port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream coking enterprises are actively purchasing, but there are signs of market waiting due to the expectation of coal mine复产. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese alloys**: Manganese ore prices have slightly declined. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, a slight increase in port inventory, and the arrival of forward low - price futures ore, there is further downward space for ore prices. On the supply side, in a profit - recovery environment, manufacturers' motivation to resume production has increased, and the daily production of manganese silicon has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the finished product output is currently at a high level and stable, but the terminal steel demand is in the off - season, the steel inventory reduction has slowed down, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in finished product output. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the bidding price of the landmark steel mill on the market [3]. - **Silicon iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which increases the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but the industry is still in a loss state. With cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [3][6][16]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, glass demand is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken, and upstream inventories are accumulating, with off - season pressure still existing. The sales in Shahe are average, mainly driven by rigid demand. On the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production soon, so the supply - side pressure still exists. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. In the medium term, it remains to be seen whether downstream demand can be stimulated [6][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are rumors that the photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the photovoltaic daily melting volume has slightly decreased, the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, and the demand expectation is weak. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to reduce prices. Emotions are interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][13]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, there are signs of a marginal weakening in steel export pressure. The off - season fundamentals of steel have limited contradictions, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policy disturbances and the sustainability of off - season demand [8]. - **Iron ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is still mainly in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in Tangshan [8]. - **Scrap steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and its own driving force is insufficient. After the macro - environment cools down, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke are gradually tightening, and the expectation of price increases is strengthening. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to whether the coal price can continue to rise [10][11][12]. - **Coking coal**: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the spot price is temporarily stable. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [11][13][14]. - **Silicon manganese**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon manganese is becoming more relaxed, and the difficulty of market inventory reduction is increasing. The upward driving force for futures prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the price's downside space is limited. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of silicon iron's electricity cost [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 2, 2025, the main glass futures contract rose 4.00% intraday, reaching 1028.00 yuan/ton, driven by multiple factors [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. - Gold is expected to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level, despite a recent adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates [11][12]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, considering supply increases, weakening iron - water production, and port inventory accumulation [15][16]. - The glass market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset, affected by short - term sentiment and recent significant production cuts in photovoltaic glass [19]. - The soybean oil market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, but short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The price increase of glass futures is due to production cut expectations (domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and a company plans to shut down a production line for cold repair), policy factors (the Central Financial and Economic Commission's measures to address low - price competition and promote quality improvement), market sentiment and technical factors (previous oversold condition and cost support from strong soda ash prices) [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After adjusting to an important support level, gold is likely to restart its upward trend. Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a short - term adjustment, the long - term outlook remains bullish [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have resumed accumulation. The market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the over - valuation risk of iron ore should be noted [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset. Although there has been significant production cut in photovoltaic glass recently, the supply side has not seen major cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - The market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, considering the current supply - demand situation and the upcoming seasonal increase in production and inventory, short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Current geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, after the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop sharply, the market will gradually return to its own supply - demand fundamentals. The overall contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $2.22, a decline of 3.30%, to $65.01; Brent main crude oil futures fell $2.83, a decline of 4.01%, to $67.82; INE main crude oil futures fell 53.70 yuan, a decline of 9.35%, to 520.9 yuan [1]. - **Data**: At Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%; diesel inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 2.17 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.97%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 9.41 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 19.64 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of methanol fell 125 yuan/ton to 2379 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of +261 [4]. - **Analysis**: After the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop, the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic supply remains high, and the demand may weaken in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of urea fell 13 yuan/ton to 1698 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. As of June 19, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.46%, 4.24 percentage points higher than last week and 7.31 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, 0.31 percentage points higher than last week and 0.81 percentage points lower than the same period last year [9][10]. - **Data**: As of June 15, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons, an increase of 0.26%. As of June 22, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.47 (+0.99) tons [10]. - **Analysis**: It is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 52 yuan to 4844 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (-70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104 (-18) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Data**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The factory inventory was 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social inventory was 56.9 tons (-0.4) [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene both fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost of pure benzene decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation was repaired, and the operating rate continued to rise [15]. - **Data**: The inventory of benzene ethylene ports increased. The overall operating rate of the demand - side three S was weak, but the operating rate of PS rebounded [15]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the Middle East conflict, it is expected that the price of benzene ethylene will maintain a volatile trend [15]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell. The end of the Iran - Israel conflict led to a significant decline in crude oil prices, affecting the import volume of polyethylene from Iran to China [17]. - **Data**: In June, the new production capacity on the supply side was small, and the pressure on the supply side would be relieved. The inventory of traders decreased marginally. The demand - side agricultural film orders decreased marginally, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [17]. - **Analysis**: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain a volatile trend [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell. The profit of Shandong refineries declined, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in a blocked return of propylene supply [18]. - **Data**: In June, there was a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons on the supply side, and the inventory of upstream production enterprises increased significantly. The demand - side operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected that the price of polypropylene will be bearish in June [18]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 366 yuan to 6760 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 40 dollars to 859 dollars [20]. - **Data**: The Chinese load of PX was 85.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the Asian load was 74.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons [20][21]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 4776 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 160 yuan to 5100 yuan [22]. - **Data**: The operating rate of PTA was 79.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The social inventory on June 13 was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,000 tons [22]. - **Analysis**: The end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 169 yuan/ton to 4332 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 117 yuan to 4480 yuan [23]. - **Data**: The supply - side operating rate increased. The import arrival forecast was 62,000 tons, and the port inventory was 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [23]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].

Report Information - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Report Authors: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Both bottle chips (PR) and short fibers (PF) are experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the ongoing geopolitical risks, and they may further surge in the short term [8]. - For bottle chips, the fundamentals have weak support, and the implementation of the planned 20% joint production cut starting from late June to July, involving about 2.4 million tons of production capacity, remains to be observed. If the cut is implemented, the supply-demand balance of bottle chips may turn to a tight balance or slight destocking in July - August [8]. - For short fibers, both domestic and foreign demand are weakening month-on-month. The factory is discussing joint production cuts and contract reductions, which are expected to be implemented in July, but the intensity of the cuts remains to be seen [8]. Summary by Section Bottle Chips (PR) Fundamentals - Head factories plan to jointly cut production by 20% from late June to July, involving about 2.4 million tons of production capacity. The current operating rate is 90.3%, and if the cut is implemented, the supply-demand balance in July - August may turn tight or lead to slight destocking. However, the actual implementation and duration of the cut need further observation. Factory and social inventories are both increasing, currently at around 18 days. Downstream demand is affected by high prices and freight costs [8]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to impact costs. After the US announced strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, costs are expected to rise in the short term, increasing price volatility [8]. Price and Spread - The basis has generally declined, and the near - end of the monthly spread structure has weakened [16]. - This week, prices have risen with costs. Factory order transaction prices range from 6,050 - 6,420 yuan/ton ex - factory, and FOB prices have risen to 820 - 835 US dollars/ton. The East - South China price spread is weak [20]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and some producers with conversion capabilities may switch production. The short fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, reducing the incentive for further substitution, while the bottle chip - PP spread indicates high cost - effectiveness, and substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27][28]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity is 2,168 million tons (CCF口径). This week, the bottle chip load has slightly increased to 90.3%, and the weekly production is still at a high level [32]. Raw Materials - PTA has shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The processing fee has decreased, the operating rate has changed, and the total inventory has increased [38][41]. - For MEG, the marginal profit is affected by factors such as naphtha, the operating rate has changed, and the port inventory in East China has changed [44][45]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has significantly increased, reaching around 5,700 - 6,000 yuan/ton this week. The spot processing fee for bottle chips has reached a new low, ranging from 200 - 270 yuan/ton. The export profit has been compressed, and the internal - external price spread has narrowed [52]. Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is about 18 days (CCF口径). The estimated social inventory in May is 2.93 million tons, and it is expected to reach 3.08 million tons in June [53]. Device Changes - Some devices, such as those of Sanfangxiang, have stopped production. In the future, devices of companies like Huarun and Yisheng plan to cut production or conduct maintenance [56]. Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate has remained stable. Beverage companies' operating rates range from 80 - 95%, edible oil factories' average operating rate is around 60 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet materials in East China is around 60 - 80% and in South China is around 40 - 60% [61]. - From January to May 2025, beverage consumption has been relatively weak year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines planned to be launched this year [67][68]. - From January to April 2025, edible oil production has increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and catering revenue has increased by 4.5% year - on - year [69]. - The demand for sheet materials is average, and supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [73]. Global Trade - Overseas bottle chip production capacity has had little growth in recent years, and the downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle chip exports are mainly directed to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and South America [77]. - In May 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there may be some over - consumption of the actual export volume from June to July [80]. Short Fibers (PF) Valuation - The PF basis has remained stable and volatile, and the futures - spot structure maintains a back structure. The on - disk processing fee is operating at a low level [97][104]. Operation - The average operating rate of direct - spinning short fibers is 95%, and the operating rate of spinning direct - spinning short fibers is 98.2%. The Fujian Jinlun 250,000 - ton device has started production [110]. Inventory - Downstream buyers have returned to a wait - and - see attitude, and the inventory pressure of most varieties has been relieved [115]. Profit - Polyester profits are generally weak, but the profits of long fibers have improved month - on - month [123]. Downstream - The operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable. Yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventories, and finished product inventories are increasing. Polyester yarn profits are generally better than last year, especially for polyester - cotton yarns, and the substitution of virgin fibers for recycled fibers continues [131][133][135]. Weaving - Some weaving machines have reduced their operating rates seasonally. The comprehensive operating rates of江浙 texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing have all declined [144][152].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: Cost fluctuations are increasing, with prices oscillating at high levels and pressure accumulating. There is a weak fundamental support, with potential for short - term cost increases due to the Iran - Israel conflict. There are expectations of production cuts, and the processing fee is at a low level. Suggestions include going long on the processing fee around 350 and conducting positive spreads on the month - difference during cost fluctuations [9][10]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: Cost fluctuations are increasing, with prices oscillating at high levels. Both domestic and external demand are weakening, and there is a risk of concentrated production cuts if the processing fee deteriorates further. The medium - term outlook is weak [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - **Valuation and Profit** - Aggregation cost has slightly decreased to around 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Spot processing fees for bottle chips have slightly recovered, ranging from 300 - 330 yuan/ton. Export profits are compressed, but the internal - external price difference remains high [50]. - **Fundamental Operation** - Factory and social inventories are accumulating simultaneously. The factory operating rate is 88.8%, and the total inventory is around 18 days. The impact of the Iran - Israel conflict on costs will continue, and costs may rise in the short term with increased volatility. Freight rates are high, which may lead to a decline in exports in June - July [10]. - Downstream demand is relatively stable. Beverage enterprises' operating rates range from 80 - 95%, edible oil factories' average operating rate is around 6 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet materials in East China is around 6 - 80% and 4 - 60% in South China [65]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The entire society's inventory is in a trend of accumulation. To achieve a balanced supply - demand situation in May, leading factories need to cut production by at least 10%, and export shipments should exceed 600,000 tons [94][95]. Staple Fiber (PF) - **Valuation** - The basis of PF has remained stable and oscillating, and the futures - spot structure maintains a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has been operating at a low level and rebounded slightly this week [100][107]. - **Fundamental Operation** - The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with the average load of direct - spinning staple fiber at 92.1% and the operating rate of spinning - grade direct - spinning staple fiber at 92.2%. Some downstream factories have started to reduce their loads, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The 1.4D equity inventory is 11 days, and the physical inventory is 19 days [11][114]. - The demand from downstream yarn mills has been stable, but the yarn inventory has increased, and the profit of polyester yarn is generally better than that of last year [135][137][139].

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the previous expectation of a production cut has weakened with the new - season fruit bagging work progressing, leading to a correction in the futures price. The demand for apples is being impacted by the increasing demand for melons and other summer fruits as the temperature rises. Although the current inventory is at a five - year low with less pressure to clear stocks, there is a risk of price decline due to potential quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] - For red dates, the main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price of red dates has been falling under multiple conditions such as the off - season, high inventory, and normal growth in the growing period, and has broken through the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Due to over - production in 2024, there are potential risks in the new - season growth, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7486 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.85% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 714, a change of + 220 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 2114, a change of + 220 from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8910 yuan/ton, a change of + 90 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 1.02% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 610, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The new - season fruit bagging work is in progress, and the previous production cut expectation has weakened, leading to a correction in the futures price. As the temperature rises, the demand for apples is being impacted by other fruits. Currently, the trading in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory is at a low level, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] Red Dates - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price has been falling in the off - season, and there are potential risks in the new - season growth due to over - production in 2024. Attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Strategy Apples - Adopt a neutral strategy. Continuously monitor the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the yield data after bagging [4] Red Dates - Adopt a neutral strategy. The current absolute price is low, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates. Pay close attention to the impact of over - production in the 2024 season and weather changes on the new - season growth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate without growth interference [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Research fellows: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon 06 contract has entered a stalemate stage. The closing price of PS2507 was 34,540 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. The trading volume was 127,429 lots, and the open interest was 65,802 lots, with a net decrease of 2,071 lots [4] Market Outlook - After the end of the terminal rush to install and the policy being in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The supply in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the expected monthly output is less than 100,000 tons. The expected production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize, and there is still an expected agreement to cut production in June, which supports the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the downstream photovoltaic terminal "rush to install" is gradually coming to an end, and the demand has decreased significantly month-on-month. Overall, the logic of the shortage of deliverable goods has been falsified and is difficult to hype again. The weak reality limits the rebound space. Before the production cut is implemented, the short-term price will be in a stalemate, and it is advisable to wait and see [4] Group 3: Market News - As of June 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,030 lots, a net increase of 110 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the number of polysilicon orders traded this week was limited, and the prices remained stable for the time being. The transaction price range of n-type recycled materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiations are successful. Short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with weakening inland prices, stable coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, supply pressure is high. Although downstream profits are improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there's no clear price trend. It's recommended to observe the market due to the low basis [5]. - For rubber, the market is weak. A neutral approach with short - term trading is advised, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][9]. - For PVC, although inventory is declining rapidly, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation is expected to continue, leading to a weak - oscillation trend. However, beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation doesn't materialize [10]. - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate. The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is entering a seasonal off - peak [13][14]. - For polypropylene, it's expected to be bearish in June. The supply side has planned capacity releases, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. - For PX, the de - stocking may slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in Q3. It's expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [17]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [18][19]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20]. Summaries by Industry Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI rose $0.30 (0.48%) to $63.34; Brent rose $0.49 (0.75%) to $65.61; INE rose 18.40 yuan (4.14%) to 462.5 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased by 4.69%, 36.81%, 18.14%, and 14.88% respectively [1]. Methanol - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 28 yuan/ton with a basis of +50 [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise significantly. The port MTO plant restarted, while traditional demand weakened [3]. Urea - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1761 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of +79 [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic production reached a record high, and short - term supply will remain high. Compound fertilizer production is ending, and agricultural demand will increase. Exports may improve slightly [5]. Rubber - **Price**: NR and RU continued to decline [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Bulls believe factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears think macro expectations are poor, demand is flat, and new supply may increase [8]. - **Operation**: A neutral approach with short - term trading is recommended, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9]. PVC - **Price**: The PVC09 contract fell 19 yuan to 4745 yuan, and the spot price was 4670 yuan/ton with a basis of - 75 [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The overall start - up rate increased, while downstream demand decreased. Inventories decreased, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [10]. Polyethylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 3 yuan/ton [12][13][14]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [14]. Polypropylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 9 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - demand**: There are planned capacity releases in June, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. PX - **Price**: The PX09 contract fell 94 yuan to 6524 yuan, and the CFR price fell 18 dollars to 824 dollars [17]. - **Supply - demand**: The maintenance season is ending. De - stocking may slow down in June but will resume in Q3 due to new PTA plant startups [17]. PTA - **Price**: The PTA09 contract fell 72 yuan to 4628 yuan, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side is in the maintenance season, and the demand side has low inventory and is expected to continue de - stocking [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price**: The EG09 contract fell 43 yuan to 4306 yuan, and the spot price fell 16 yuan [20]. - **Supply - demand**: The industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20].

Group 1 - Thailand has postponed rubber tapping by one month, which may influence rubber prices [1] - The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of potential flash flood risks in the future, raising concerns for traders [1] - There are questions regarding whether bullish traders can confidently engage in trading amid production cut expectations [1]

Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]