1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting production decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook towards a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, the LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting production continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 98,800 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of - 240 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $12,461/ton, an LME spot premium of $38.60/ton, an LME inventory of 147,425 tons, and an inventory daily change of - 2,050 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,950 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 220 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $3,021/ton, the LME spot premium is - $24.94/ton, the LME inventory is 511,750 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 23,400 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 115 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $3,127/ton, an LME spot premium of - $36.25/ton, an LME inventory of 107,625 tons, and an inventory daily change of 1,300 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 130,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,500 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $16,760/ton, the LME spot premium is - $143.68/ton, the LME inventory is 255,162 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 70 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $1,994/ton, the LME spot premium is - $46.54/ton, the LME inventory is 241,925 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 3,350 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 327,680 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,520 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $40,250/ton, the LME spot premium is - $1.00/ton, the LME inventory is 5,420 tons, and the inventory daily change is 90 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, smelting production shows high growth, power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting production continues to grow, the galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak [2].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4337.60 with a change of 4.25 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 65.79 with a change of - 0.51 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1924.00 with a change of 18.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00 with a change of 68.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 56.52 with a change of 0.37 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 11809.50 with a change of 95.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.71 with a change of 0.27 [1] - Euro - US Dollar's latest value is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - British Pound - US Dollar's latest value is 1.34 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen's latest value is 157.73 with a change of 2.17 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.92 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14112.48 with a change of 17.12 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 899.64 with a change of - 12.52 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.54 with a change of 0.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16066.24 with a change of 47.95 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Gold's is 1, with no change [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation after nearly three months, with a 5bp reduction in the 14 - day reverse repurchase rate. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices [4][5] - In the short term, domestic stock indices are expected to continue a weak operation due to factors such as the decline in market risk appetite at the end of the year, poor economic data in November, and limited policy signals from recent meetings. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, providing a layout window [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate Market - **Yield Changes**: DROO1 closed at 1.27 with a - 0.14bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 0.31bp change, GC001 at 1.22 with a - 39.50bp change, GC007 at 1.51 with a - 4.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37 with a - 0.73bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.61 with a - 0.66bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.83 with a - 0.29bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.16 with a 1.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40% and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 118.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment on the day was 69.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and on Monday, 400 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases and 80 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [4][5] Stock Index Market - **Index Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4553, down 0.59%; the SSE 50 closed at 2999, up 0.23%; the CSI 500 closed at 7101, down 0.52%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7272, down 0.22%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6555 trillion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with sectors such as pharmaceutical business, aerospace, chemical fiber, department stores, banks, household appliances, and medical services leading the gains, while sectors such as batteries, power equipment, electronic chemicals, energy metals, and glass fiber showing the largest losses [6] - **Futures Contracts**: In terms of futures contracts, IF当月 closed at 4550, down 0.6%; IH当月 closed at 2995, up 0.3%; IC当月 closed at 7101, down 0.6%; IM当月 closed at 7275, down 0.3%. The trading volume and positions of various futures contracts generally decreased [6] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different premium and discount rates in different contract periods [8]

1. Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 1000 closed at 7,272.40, down 0.22%; trading volume was 20,004, down 9%; turnover was 34.9 billion, down 5% [3] - IM2512 closed at 7,275.40, down 0.26%; trading volume was 78,623, down 36%; turnover was 11.48 billion, down 36%; open interest was 50,338, down 35,409 [3] - IM2601 closed at 7,213.00, down 0.16%; trading volume was 39,669, down 9%; turnover was 5.74 billion, down 8%; open interest was 84,085, up 11,570 [3] - IM2603 closed at 7,066.00, down 0.03%; trading volume was 87,621, down 10%; turnover was 12.41 billion, down 9%; open interest was 166,683, up 7,011 [8] - IM2606 closed at 6,822.20, down 0.05%; trading volume was 18,703, down 25%; turnover was 2.56 billion, down 24%; open interest was 73,498, down 1,446 [8] - Total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 224,616, down 65,504 from the previous day; total open interest was 374,604, down 18,274 from the previous day [5] 2.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 206.4 points, up 8.34 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.46% [5] - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.67 points, 0.66 points, 0.67 points, and 42.34 points respectively [5] 2.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IM2512, IM2601, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts are provided [19][21][23] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 300 closed at 4,552.79, down 0.59%; trading volume was 15,168, down 15%; turnover was 38.21 billion, down 16% [24] - IF2512 closed at 4,550.40, down 0.73%; trading volume was 53,558, down 37%; turnover was 7.32 billion, down 37%; open interest was 37,690, down 24,245 [24] - IF2601 closed at 4,531.20, down 0.73%; trading volume was 30,353, up 7%; turnover was 4.13 billion, up 7%; open interest was 54,550, up 8,789 [24] - IF2603 closed at 4,505.00, down 0.68%; trading volume was 50,112, down 18%; turnover was 6.78 billion, down 18%; open interest was 150,187, up 6,425 [24] - IF2606 closed at 4,455.40, down 0.70%; trading volume was 11,980, down 20%; turnover was 1.6 billion, down 20%; open interest was 39,869, up 1,704 [24] - Total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 146,003, down 43,587 from the previous day; total open interest was 282,296, down 7,327 from the previous day [25] 3.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 47.79 points, up 0.09 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.16% [25] - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 2.62 points, 6.24 points, 7.43 points, and 37.78 points respectively [25] 3.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts are provided [37][39][40] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 500 closed at 7,100.84, down 0.52%; trading volume was 15,490, down 11%; turnover was 27.55 billion, down 9% [42] - IC2512 closed at 7,101.00, down 0.71%; trading volume was 46,235, down 39%; turnover was 6.6 billion, down 39%; open interest was 34,085, down 22,568 [42] - IC2601 closed at 7,069.80, down 0.45%; trading volume was 30,418, up 4%; turnover was 4.32 billion, up 5%; open interest was 57,737, up 7,456 [42] - IC2603 closed at 6,973.60, down 0.27%; trading volume was 57,027, down 10%; turnover was 7.97 billion, down 9%; open interest was 127,506, up 5,666 [42] - IC2606 closed at 6,776.00, down 0.26%; trading volume was 12,826, down 20%; turnover was 1.74 billion, down 19%; open interest was 44,391, up 1,189 [42] - Total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 146,506, down 38,325 from the previous day; total open interest was 263,719, down 8,257 from the previous day [43] 4.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 127.24 points, up 14.59 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.16% [43] - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.82 points, 0.37 points, 0.82 points, and 66.05 points respectively [43] 4.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IC2512, IC2601, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts are provided [53][55][57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - SSE 50 closed at 2,998.52, up 0.23%; trading volume was 3,255, down 15%; turnover was 8.27 billion, down 23% [59] - IH2512 closed at 2,995.00, down 0.02%; trading volume was 22,829, down 37%; turnover was 2.05 billion, down 37%; open interest was 16,779, down 11,717 [59] - IH2601 closed at 2,989.20, up 0.02%; trading volume was 10,970, up 14%; turnover was 0.98 billion, up 15%; open interest was 14,464, up 2,148 [59] - IH2603 closed at 2,986.00, down 0.05%; trading volume was 21,452, down 13%; turnover was 1.92 billion, down 13%; open interest was 43,414, up 1,547 [59] - IH2606 closed at 2,976.00, up 0.05%; trading volume was 3,338, down 21%; turnover was 0.3 billion, down 21%; open interest was 11,494, up 20 [59] - Total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 58,589, down 16,253 from the previous day; total open interest was 86,151, down 8,002 from the previous day [59] 4.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 12.52 points, down 1.44 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -1.65% [60] - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 9.95 points, 8.67 points, 9.95 points, and 27.98 points respectively [60] 4.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IH2512, IH2601, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts are provided [74][76][78]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend with a structural supply - demand gap in 2026, and the idea is to buy on dips, with a price range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2]. - Zinc prices may not fall deeply due to a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [8]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are generally weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies considering the Indonesian policy's price - supporting motivation [12]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. - Tin prices have shown marginal weakening signs in the short term, with potential large fluctuations in case of a macro - level systemic correction. It can be a long - term long - allocation in the first half of 2026, but attention should be paid to correction risks [19]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell on Friday night. Global inventory distribution is uneven, and low - inventory areas in the US may face more pressure. In China, there is a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: With the continuous loose overseas liquidity, the idea is to buy on dips, and the price in December is expected to be in the range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 120 yuan. The domestic alumina price decreased by 2 yuan, and the import price remained unchanged. The LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the cancelled warrants increased by 6,675 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The expectation of interest rate cuts affected the market, and terminal demand was lower than expected. Aluminum prices showed two significant corrections this week. Short - term apparent demand is good, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from 163 US dollars to 90.6 US dollars. The domestic zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC is declining rapidly. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was put into production, and multiple smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average, but US zinc imports have increased recently [5]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 250 yuan, and the Jinchuan premium increased by 650 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has a price - supporting motivation [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production is at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,875, and the cancelled warrants decreased by 1,375 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is at a high level, and the secondary lead production has recovered. The battery demand is expected to weaken, but downstream restocking provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The domestic inventory increased by about 600 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin ore processing fee is at a low level. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices stimulate inventory exports. Demand is mainly rigid, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened [19]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of excessive supply growth, and the fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. In the medium - to - long term, demand determines the upside space, but attention should be paid to correction risks in 2026 [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of 421 - grade Yunnan, Sichuan, 553 - grade East China, and Tianjin decreased by 105 yuan, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and some silicon plants in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will have periodic maintenance. The supply and demand in December are expected to be balanced [22]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 1,200 yuan and 1,100 yuan respectively. The basis of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 6,820 yuan and increased by 1,200 yuan respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 350 [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: Ningde's resumption of production is less than expected. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the upstream inventory is being depleted. Downstream demand is strong at low prices but weakens at high prices [24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term pattern is one of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.45 with a 0.48bp increase, GC001 at 1.69 with a 19.00bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.40bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with no change, 5 - year at 1.63 with a - 0.10bp change, 10 - year at 1.78 with a - 6.30bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.17 with a - 2.20bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1353 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1173 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 180 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6685 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. On Monday, 4000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases and 800 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference stated to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, using various tools like RRR cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity and support key areas [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 4498, down 1.20%; the SSE 50 at 2955, down 1.08%; the CSI 500 at 7001, down 1.58%; and the CSI 1000 at 7182, down 1.74% [5] - IF当月 closed at 4499, down 1.0%; IH当月 at 2951, down 1.1%; IC当月 at 7010, down 1.5%; and IM当月 at 7189, down 1.6% [5] - IF trading volume was 150080, up 24.5%, and its open interest was 290251, up 5.8%; IH trading volume was 70206, up 18.5%, and its open interest was 96049, down 0.3%; IC trading volume was 163311, up 23.3%, and its open interest was 269228, up 5.6%; IM trading volume was 254225, up 32.1%, and its open interest was 402582, up 9.9% [5] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17242 billion yuan, a decrease of 493 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with the commercial department store sector rising [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The market's risk appetite is declining as the year - end approaches. With poor November economic data and limited policy signals, the stock index is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] - The market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing an opportunity for investors to gradually build long positions and use the futures' discount structure to optimize investment [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 4.99%, 4.60%, 3.98%, and 3.95% respectively [7] - IH's are 13.95%, 3.66%, 1.44%, and 1.74% respectively [7] - IC's are - 15.43%, 7.05%, 8.76%, and 10.04% respectively [7] - IM's are - 12.50%, 10.53%, 11.97%, and 12.78% respectively [7]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are 4324.20, 62.98, 1775.00, 1558.00, and 11608.00 respectively, with changes of 8.35, -0.89, 1.00, 22.00, and -76.50 [3]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, and US Dollar to Japanese Yen are 98.22, 1.17, 1.34, and 154.73 respectively, with changes of -0.06, -0.00, 0.00, and -0.49 [3]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, Gold ETF, and Silver ETF are - (not provided), 890.72, 1051.68, and 16018.29 respectively, with changes of - (not provided), 32.91, 0.00, and -42.31 [4]. - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 1.00 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]

1. Report General Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, supported by fundamentals but affected by the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan [8]. - The current industrial fundamentals of lithium carbonate are healthy, but the momentum to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. - Aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to be weak under the pressure of oversupply [76]. - Zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later [102]. 4. Summary by Metals Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE copper fluctuated between 91,450 and 94,570, with a total position of 646,872 lots. The spot premium turned to a discount of 20 on Friday. The copper price hit a record high due to the Fed's interest rate cut, China's policy expectations, and supply - demand support. LME copper ranged from 11,585 to 11,952, and the net long position of funds increased [7]. - It is recommended to note that although the supply of refined copper is under limited pressure and the demand acceptance has marginally improved, the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan may suppress market sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The import TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, while the processing fees of cold materials increased. The smelting loss of spot copper concentrate expanded, but the by - product sulfuric acid revenue rose. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [11][12][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 9.01 percentage points to 18.16%, while that of refined copper rods decreased by 2.82% to 64.54%. The operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire also declined [15][16][17]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, and bonded area inventory decreased. LME + COMEX market inventory increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, with the main contract ranging from 91,120 to 101,620. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was relatively stable. The inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, and the cost support increased [24]. - It is recommended to note that the supply pressure is easing, and the demand growth rate of the terminal field is slowing down. The current industrial fundamentals are healthy, but the power to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is easing. It is expected that the output in December will decrease by 1% month - on - month. The prices of lithium mines generally rose, and the cash costs of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased [27][28]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all rose. The prices of power cells fluctuated, and the production of power cells slowed down at the end of the year, while the production of energy - storage cells remained good [29][30][31]. - Spot: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract deepened significantly. The inventory continued to decline [33][34]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract ranging from 21,790 to 22,355. Alumina continued to fall, and the smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise. The industry was in a state of destocking, and the import window was closed [40]. - It is recommended to note that the price of domestic bauxite is stable, alumina is still falling, and the demand for aluminum processing is weak. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite: The price of domestic bauxite remained stable, and the supply of imported bauxite was well - supported. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 0.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton [43]. - Alumina: The futures price hit a new low, and the import window was open. The weighted index of Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 0.59% week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic alumina plants was at a high level [46][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price of alumina continued to fall, and the average profit of the industry increased to 5,715.47 yuan per ton [52]. - Exports and Imports: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots was closed [61]. - Processing Enterprises: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, and the demand was weak [65]. - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline [69]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, nickel prices fell unilaterally. SHFE nickel and LME nickel both declined, and the import window was closed. The domestic social inventory increased by 2,122 tons to 58,970 tons, and the overall inventory pressure was significant [72]. - It is recommended to note that the price of Indonesian nickel ore fell, the price of nickel iron rebounded slightly, and the price of nickel salts continued to fall. The inventory continued to increase, and nickel prices are expected to remain weak [75][76]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores were temporarily stable, but the price of Indonesian nickel ore was loose. In October, the import of nickel ore decreased significantly [77]. - Nickel Iron: In November, the production of nickel pig iron decreased. In December, the production is expected to continue to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the import of nickel iron decreased slightly but remained at a high level [85][86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In November, the production of refined nickel decreased [90]. - Nickel Sulfate: This week, the price of nickel salts continued to fall. In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased [93][96]. - Stainless Steel: This week, the inventory of the stainless - steel market increased slightly, and the actual demand did not improve significantly [99]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE zinc rose to repair the gap in April and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot premium declined, and the processing fees of zinc ore continued to fall. The domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and the LME zinc inventory increased [101]. - It is recommended to note that under the joint drive of macro - benefits and fundamental shortages, zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of smelters, inventory destocking rhythm, and macro - sentiment changes [102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fees of zinc ore continued to decline, and the production of refined zinc in November may have declined slightly. In December, the production is expected to continue to fall. The overseas LME0 - 3 Back structure remains high, and the export window is open [109][110]. - Demand: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 0.33% to 58.39%, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide decreased. The overall demand in the fourth quarter is weak [111][112]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 2,600 tons to 60,350 tons [113].