投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/12/15 | 指标 | | 12月12日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 97 | 12 | 1600 | == ====== 22/23 | | == == | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 天津 日照 | 37 | 32 | 1200 400 -400 | | | | | | | | | | 57 | 32 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 17 | 32 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | | 10/27 11 ...

1. Report General Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, supported by fundamentals but affected by the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan [8]. - The current industrial fundamentals of lithium carbonate are healthy, but the momentum to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. - Aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to be weak under the pressure of oversupply [76]. - Zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later [102]. 4. Summary by Metals Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE copper fluctuated between 91,450 and 94,570, with a total position of 646,872 lots. The spot premium turned to a discount of 20 on Friday. The copper price hit a record high due to the Fed's interest rate cut, China's policy expectations, and supply - demand support. LME copper ranged from 11,585 to 11,952, and the net long position of funds increased [7]. - It is recommended to note that although the supply of refined copper is under limited pressure and the demand acceptance has marginally improved, the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan may suppress market sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The import TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, while the processing fees of cold materials increased. The smelting loss of spot copper concentrate expanded, but the by - product sulfuric acid revenue rose. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [11][12][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 9.01 percentage points to 18.16%, while that of refined copper rods decreased by 2.82% to 64.54%. The operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire also declined [15][16][17]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, and bonded area inventory decreased. LME + COMEX market inventory increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, with the main contract ranging from 91,120 to 101,620. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was relatively stable. The inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, and the cost support increased [24]. - It is recommended to note that the supply pressure is easing, and the demand growth rate of the terminal field is slowing down. The current industrial fundamentals are healthy, but the power to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is easing. It is expected that the output in December will decrease by 1% month - on - month. The prices of lithium mines generally rose, and the cash costs of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased [27][28]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all rose. The prices of power cells fluctuated, and the production of power cells slowed down at the end of the year, while the production of energy - storage cells remained good [29][30][31]. - Spot: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract deepened significantly. The inventory continued to decline [33][34]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract ranging from 21,790 to 22,355. Alumina continued to fall, and the smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise. The industry was in a state of destocking, and the import window was closed [40]. - It is recommended to note that the price of domestic bauxite is stable, alumina is still falling, and the demand for aluminum processing is weak. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite: The price of domestic bauxite remained stable, and the supply of imported bauxite was well - supported. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 0.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton [43]. - Alumina: The futures price hit a new low, and the import window was open. The weighted index of Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 0.59% week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic alumina plants was at a high level [46][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price of alumina continued to fall, and the average profit of the industry increased to 5,715.47 yuan per ton [52]. - Exports and Imports: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots was closed [61]. - Processing Enterprises: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, and the demand was weak [65]. - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline [69]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, nickel prices fell unilaterally. SHFE nickel and LME nickel both declined, and the import window was closed. The domestic social inventory increased by 2,122 tons to 58,970 tons, and the overall inventory pressure was significant [72]. - It is recommended to note that the price of Indonesian nickel ore fell, the price of nickel iron rebounded slightly, and the price of nickel salts continued to fall. The inventory continued to increase, and nickel prices are expected to remain weak [75][76]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores were temporarily stable, but the price of Indonesian nickel ore was loose. In October, the import of nickel ore decreased significantly [77]. - Nickel Iron: In November, the production of nickel pig iron decreased. In December, the production is expected to continue to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the import of nickel iron decreased slightly but remained at a high level [85][86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In November, the production of refined nickel decreased [90]. - Nickel Sulfate: This week, the price of nickel salts continued to fall. In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased [93][96]. - Stainless Steel: This week, the inventory of the stainless - steel market increased slightly, and the actual demand did not improve significantly [99]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE zinc rose to repair the gap in April and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot premium declined, and the processing fees of zinc ore continued to fall. The domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and the LME zinc inventory increased [101]. - It is recommended to note that under the joint drive of macro - benefits and fundamental shortages, zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of smelters, inventory destocking rhythm, and macro - sentiment changes [102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fees of zinc ore continued to decline, and the production of refined zinc in November may have declined slightly. In December, the production is expected to continue to fall. The overseas LME0 - 3 Back structure remains high, and the export window is open [109][110]. - Demand: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 0.33% to 58.39%, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide decreased. The overall demand in the fourth quarter is weak [111][112]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 2,600 tons to 60,350 tons [113].

1. Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: December 10, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.24, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 21,561 lots (down 6%) and a trading value of 36.02 billion yuan (down 8%) [4] - The IM main - contract (IM2512) rose 0.22% to close at 7,371.4 points. The trading volume of IM four - contracts was 177,447 lots, an increase of 36,576 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 369,233 lots, an increase of 9,226 lots [4][5] 2.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IM main - contract was at a discount of 36.84 points, down 4.06 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 18.24% [5] - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.34 points, 1.2 points, 1.21 points, and 44.18 points respectively [5] 2.3 Main Seats - For IM2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 46,882 lots, an increase of 11,437 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 45,109 lots (an increase of 1,400 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 56,585 lots (an increase of 1,488 lots) [19] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,591.83, down 0.14%, with a trading volume of 16,911 lots (down 8%) and a trading value of 40.15 billion yuan (down 11%) [24] - The IF main - contract (IF2512) fell 0.17% to close at 4,574.2 points. The trading volume of IF four - contracts was 122,684 lots, an increase of 23,187 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 276,464 lots, an increase of 7,169 lots [24][25] 3.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IF main - contract was at a discount of 17.63 points, down 2.61 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 14.07% [25] - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 3.54 points, 9.82 points, 10.92 points, and 40.57 points respectively [25] 3.3 Main Seats - For IF2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 75,172 lots, an increase of 12,528 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 54,636 lots (a decrease of 1,176 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 56,894 lots (an increase of 127 lots) [37] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,155.99, up 0.49%, with a trading volume of 15,397 lots (down 8%) and a trading value of 28.05 billion yuan (down 8%) [42] - The IC main - contract (IC2512) rose 0.4% to close at 7,122.2 points. The trading volume of IC four - contracts was 116,534 lots, an increase of 20,739 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,255 lots, an increase of 2,642 lots [42][43] 4.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IC main - contract was at a discount of 33.79 points, down 6.86 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 17.32% [43] - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.84 points, 2.37 points, 2.94 points, and 57.32 points respectively [43] 4.3 Main Seats - For IC2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 31,609 lots, an increase of 5,655 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 34,243 lots (an increase of 1,249 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 44,390 lots (an increase of 1,291 lots) [58] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,988.64, down 0.31%, with a trading volume of 4,151 lots (down 4%) and a trading value of 10.13 billion yuan (down 8%) [64] - The IH main - contract (IH2512) fell 0.35% to close at 2,980.8 points. The trading volume of IH four - contracts was 51,211 lots, an increase of 12,074 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 96,737 lots, an increase of 4,369 lots [64] 5.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IH main - contract was at a discount of 7.84 points, down 1.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 9.6% [65] - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 4.68 points, 12.33 points, 13.5 points, and 31.52 points respectively [65] 5.3 Main Seats - For IH2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 35,039 lots, an increase of 9,905 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 23,003 lots (an increase of 1,156 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 27,634 lots (an increase of 651 lots) [80]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | | | | | | | 铅锌日评20251204：区间整理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 2025/12/4 单位 | 今值 | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | 0.15% | | | | 元/吨 17,075.00 | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | 0.00% | | | | 17,210.00 元/吨 | | | | 沪铅基差 | | | | 25.00 | | | | 元/吨 -135.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | | | | - | | | | 元/吨 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | | | -0.82 | | | | -42.45 美元/吨 | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | | | | 2.50 | | | | 美元/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 对于股指来说,预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待 新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。同时,中央汇金的托底功能为指数提 供了缓冲,下行风险预计可控。短期可重点关注海外流动性变化信号,以 及国内政策会否提前发力。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H | IF升贴水 | 4.22% | 4.44% | 2.97% | 3.41% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 3.05% | 2.09% | 0.98% | 1.11% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 8.79% | 9.16% | 9.26% | 10.43% | | 情 况 | IM升贴水 | 12.49% | 12.18% | 11.89% | 12.18% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水）。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will have 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due this week, and there will be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Thursday. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - Yesterday, the macro news was calm, and the stock index showed a differentiated trend. Small and medium - cap stocks were relatively weak, while large - cap stocks were more resilient. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving, lacking a core driving force. The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards. Short - term market differences will be digested during the volatility, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42%, down 10.66bp; DR007 closed at 1.51%, down 1.08bp; GC001 closed at 1.63%, down 6.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.51%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58%, unchanged; LPR 5 - year was 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40%, down 0.30bp; 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.12%, down 1.00bp [3]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, resulting in a net investment of 6262 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.44% to 4588.3; the SSE 50 rose 0.58% to 3020.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.4% to 7122.7; the CSI 1000 fell 0.82% to 7387.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 17259 billion yuan, a decrease of 2002 billion yuan from the previous day. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5]. - The IF contract had a trading volume of 122613, up 0.6%, and an open interest of 272167, down 2.3%; the IH contract had a trading volume of 53539, down 2.2%, and an open interest of 95237, down 2.5%; the IC contract had a trading volume of 132592, down 1.4%, and an open interest of 248512, down 2.2%; the IM contract had a trading volume of 227467, up 4.5%, and an open interest of 364139, up 0.6% [5]. 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.46%, 6.12%, 3.69%, and 3.73% respectively; the IH premium rates were 14.19%, 3.77%, 1.39%, and 1.38% respectively; the IC premium rates were 15.75%, 11.61%, 10.48%, and 11.09% respectively; the IM premium rates were - 7.88%, 14.66%, 13.00%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, although there are geopolitical head - winds, the copper price has strong support due to tight raw material supply and improved spot market after price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. - For aluminum, with relatively fluctuating domestic inventories and low overseas inventories, the aluminum price has strong support. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. - For lead, due to tight domestic lead raw materials, high primary and increasing secondary smelting production, and marginal improvement in downstream demand, the domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. - For zinc, with tight zinc ore during refineries' winter stockpiling, reduced zinc smelting profits, and slowdown in domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation, along with the impact of Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. - For tin, the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - For nickel, due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough [13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. - For alumina, with the recovery of overseas ore shipments after the rainy season and over - capacity in the smelting end, the inventory is increasing. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see [20][21]. - For stainless steel, with the oversupply situation unchanged, weak market confidence, and sufficient imported raw materials, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. - For cast aluminum alloy, with cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks stabilized, copper prices rebounded. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.98% to 10,802 US dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract reached 86,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 17,375 to 157,875 tons, mainly from Asian warehouses. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 58,000 tons, and the spot premium in Shanghai increased. The domestic copper spot import loss shrank to about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US government reopened, but there are geopolitical head - winds. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot market has improved after the price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 2,814 US dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,530 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 1.2 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The spot in the East China electrolytic aluminum market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading improved. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 546,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are relatively fluctuating, and overseas inventories are low. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.12% to 17,248 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to 2,026 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 31,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 40,400 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore and waste battery inventories increased slightly, but the lead raw materials are still tight. The primary and secondary smelting profits are good, and the downstream demand has improved marginally. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.49% to 22,437 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose 13 to 2,986.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,420 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 75,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 156,600 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but it is still tight during refineries' winter stockpiling. Zinc smelting profits are damaged, and the zinc ingot supply is marginally decreasing. The downstream operating rate is stable, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation has slowed down. The LME zinc spread is marginally decreasing. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,370 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was reported at 279,500 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan/ton. The tin smelting plants' operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have recovered but are still at a low level due to tight tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State has been approved, the tin ore export is still far below the normal level [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 115,650 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The ferronickel price has been falling rapidly since November [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 97,343 yuan, up 3.73%. The LC2601 contract closed at 99,300 yuan, up 6.18% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.39% to 2,764 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 67 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 33 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 255,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting end has over - capacity. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 operating range is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [20][21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets had different changes. The raw material prices such as ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,726 to 70,365 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,070,600 tons [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, market confidence is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price stabilized. The main AD2601 contract rose 0.36% to 20,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 5,100 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.02 to 51,500 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

Market Data Summary - DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 2.52 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.33 bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 43.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 5.00 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.56 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.88 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 0.05 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13 with a 2.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan [4] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and keep social financing conditions relatively loose [4] Stock Index Market - CSI 300 closed at 4652, down 0.91%; SSE 50 at 3035, down 0.63%; CSI 500 at 7292, down 0.71%; and CSI 1000 at 7541, down 0.30% [6] - IF volume was 110400 with a 3.4% increase, IH volume 50142 with a 9.2% increase, IC volume 112484 with an 8.4% decrease, and IM volume 186082 with a 4.3% decrease [6] - IF open interest was 263184 with a 1.9% decrease, IH open interest 94744 with a 2.0% decrease, IC open interest 241256 with a 3.2% decrease, and IM open interest 354095 with a 0.2% decrease [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, non - metallic materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors led the gains, while insurance, energy metals, aerospace, electronic components, and software development sectors led the losses [6] Market Outlook - The stock index closed down in a volatile manner. The current macro - level is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force [7] - Market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment. New driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [7] Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 9.39% for the current - month contract, 5.24% for the next - month contract, 3.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.32% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH basis was 1.24% for the current - month contract, 0.52% for the next - month contract, 0.47% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.66% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC basis was 24.73% for the current - month contract, 15.62% for the next - month contract, 11.17% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.87% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM basis was 31.07% for the current - month contract, 19.16% for the next - month contract, 14.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.00% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - level is in a relative policy window period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward mainline, trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate and are in an accumulation phase. The US government's continuous shutdown risks increase the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impact the domestic equity market, but the impact is mainly at the A - share opening stage, and the intraday trend can be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the long - term, the market is expected to have further upward space, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors such as overseas liquidity release or substantial improvement in domestic fundamentals will drive the market upward [6]. 2. Data Summary 2.1 Currency Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.33 | 1.55 | | DR007 | 1.41 | - 1.24 | | GC001 | 1.20 | - 12.00 | | GC007 | 1.47 | - 0.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | - 0.35 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.40 | - 0.04 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 0.53 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.81 | 0.77 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.11 | 0.00 | Last week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market. There were 2068 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. 2.2 Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4679 | - 0.31 | | IF Current Month | 4673 | - 0.2 | | SSE 50 | 3038 | - 0.21 | | IH Current Month | 3039 | - 0.1 | | CSI 500 | 7328 | - 0.24 | | IC Current Month | 7292 | - 0.2 | | CSI 1000 | 7542 | - 0.13 | | IM Current Month | 7493 | 0.1 | | IF Trading Volume | 86450 | - 22.4 | | IF Open Interest | 257486 | - 2.7 | | IH Trading Volume | 37804 | - 26.6 | | IH Open Interest | 90943 | - 5.5 | | IC Trading Volume | | - 19.9 | | IC Open Interest | 240492 | - 3.6 | | IM Trading Volume | 187617 | - 7.8 | | IM Open Interest | 356424 | 1.9 | Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), medicine and biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1910.4 billion, 1753.4 billion, 1718.3 billion, 1860 billion, and 1833.1 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 260.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 3.77% | 3.78% | 3.13% | 3.23% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.58% | | IC Premium/Discount | 14.91% | 12.17% | 10.13% | 10.16% | | IM Premium/Discount | 19.55% | 15.71% | 12.96% | 12.36% | Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount) [7].