Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses measures to alleviate local government debt pressure and reduce hidden debt risks by potentially issuing part of next year's replacement bonds before the end of this year, which could stimulate economic growth and improve market confidence [1] Group 1: Government Debt Management - Zhang Yiqun suggests that incorporating part of next year's replacement bonds into this year's issuance could significantly ease local fiscal pressures and send positive signals for economic stability and growth [1] - Finance Minister Lan Fan'an announced on September 12 that the government will continue to implement a series of debt resolution measures, including the early allocation of part of the 2026 new local government debt limit [1] - Analyst Feng Lin indicates that "early use of debt limits" may refer to issuing the 2026 new limits in the fourth quarter or early next year, with a higher likelihood of early issuance in the first quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - If the issuance of replacement bonds is advanced, it would allow local governments to free up more funds for development and construction, thereby enhancing their capacity for infrastructure investment and stabilizing economic performance in the fourth quarter [1]

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has exceeded 8.5 trillion yuan this year, with new special bonds amounting to 36,795 billion yuan and new general bonds at 6,444 billion yuan, significantly surpassing last year's quota of 800 billion yuan for special bonds [1] - The progress of local bond issuance is stable and shows a trend of rapid advancement, particularly with the completion of local debt replacement bonds, which plays a crucial role in supporting economic growth [1][2] - Approximately 28% of the new special bonds issued for project construction are allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, while 18% is directed towards transportation infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The issuance of "special" new special bonds has reached about 1.2 trillion yuan this year, exceeding the previously arranged quota of 800 billion yuan, likely due to an expansion of their intended uses [2] - As of the end of September, 1.98 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds have been issued for replacing hidden debts, with an expected issuance of about 1.2 trillion yuan in local government bonds in the fourth quarter [2] - Experts suggest clarifying the scale of local hidden debts and increasing local government debt limits to alleviate repayment pressures and optimize debt structures [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement a series of measures to address hidden debt, including the early allocation of part of the 2026 new local government debt limit [3][4] - There is a possibility that the early issuance of the 2026 new limit could occur in the fourth quarter, which would help local governments free up more funds for development and construction [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, trading volume, and turnover rate, and also provides information on debt - resolution - related bonds and issuance plans [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net financing**: This week, local government bonds issued 196.1 billion yuan, with a repayment of 73.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 122.5 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing increased. Next week, the planned issuance is 107.2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 9.1 billion yuan and a net financing of 98.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.4 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3] - **Issuance term**: The 30 - year local government bond issuance accounted for the highest proportion (38%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 84%, an increase compared to last week. The 30 - year issuance proportion increased by about 16 percentage points, while the 7 - year and 10 - year proportions decreased by about 12 and 11 percentage points respectively [1][12] - **Debt - resolution - related local government bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1.14 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1,995.7 billion yuan. Special special bonds issued 5.06 billion yuan this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales of special special bonds in 2025 are 1,204.9 billion and 1,201.2 billion yuan respectively [2][16] - **Issuance spread**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 23.9bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 27.6bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 10 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of other terms widened. There was significant regional differentiation [2][25] - **Fund - raising direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (14%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 14.2% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.5% [2][30] - **Issuance plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with an expected total issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter are 1,745 billion and 1,176 billion yuan respectively. Some regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter issuance plans, totaling 844.5 billion yuan, with 540.6 billion yuan in October [3][33] 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds of all terms widened. The 5 - year and 10 - year secondary spreads reached 16.1bp and 15.7bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 5 - year secondary spread in the past 3 years was relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the 3 - 5 - year secondary spreads in each region were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year and 15 - 20 - year secondary spreads in medium - strength and strong regions were also relatively high [5][37] - **Trading volume and turnover rate**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Qinghai had a relatively high turnover rate. The trading volume this week reached 489.1 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.92%. Guangdong, Hunan, and Shandong had large trading volumes, and Qinghai had the highest turnover rate at 4.0%, higher than Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' 3.7% [5][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds remains strong, with a focus on special bonds for debt replacement, stabilizing the real estate market, and funding government investment projects [1][3][5]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In August, the issuance of local government bonds reached 977.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 486.6 billion yuan, representing about half of the total [1]. - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.26 trillion yuan, which is 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated in recent months, with amounts of 443.2 billion yuan, 527.1 billion yuan, 616.9 billion yuan, and 486.6 billion yuan from May to August [3]. Group 2: Debt Replacement and Financial Management - Over 40% of the new special bonds issued in August were allocated for government stock investment projects, primarily for debt replacement [1][3]. - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.93 trillion yuan from January to August, with only about 70 billion yuan remaining for the year [1][3]. - The total issuance of special bonds for debt replacement from January to August was 9.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 30% of all new special bonds issued [3]. Group 3: Funding Allocation and Project Focus - The funds from new special bonds are primarily directed towards project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social services [3][4]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 324 billion yuan issued across ten provinces from January to August [4]. - Special bonds for "stabilizing the real estate market" amounted to approximately 595 billion yuan from January to August, making it the second-largest category of funding after municipal infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Support for Government Investment Funds - A significant portion of the special bonds issued in August was directed towards government investment funds to support technological innovation and emerging industries [7][8]. - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, have issued special bonds to inject capital into government investment funds, with amounts ranging from 50 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan [7][8]. - The shift in the use of special bonds towards supporting strategic emerging industries reflects a broader trend of reallocating funds from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and innovation-driven projects [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in August reached 977.6 billion yuan, maintaining strong momentum despite a decline compared to June and July, with new special bonds accounting for about half of the total issuance [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 3.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, with a notable acceleration in issuance in recent months [2][1] - In August, over 40% of the new special bonds were allocated for government existing investment projects, termed "debt reduction" funds, with a total of 2.129 trillion yuan issued for this purpose [2] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserve reached 600 billion yuan in August, with ten provinces issuing over 320 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds [1][3] Group 2: Debt Reduction and Project Funding - The demand for "debt reduction" remains significant, with 30% of the new special bonds issued from January to August allocated for this purpose, totaling 9.68 trillion yuan [2] - The primary use of new special bond funds, excluding "debt reduction," was for project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social projects [2] Group 3: Land Reserve and Housing Market Stabilization - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 3.24 trillion yuan issued by ten provinces from January to August, aimed at recovering idle land and alleviating financial pressure on developers [3] - Some provinces are also initiating projects to acquire existing residential properties, with 32 projects reported across four provinces, primarily funded by special bonds [4][5] Group 4: Support for Innovation and Emerging Industries - A significant trend in August was the issuance of special bonds to support government investment funds, enhancing support for local technological innovation and strategic emerging industries [6] - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, issued special bonds for government investment funds, indicating a shift in investment focus from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and emerging sectors [7][6] Group 5: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the increased investment in strategic emerging industries through special bonds is a necessary shift to adapt to high-quality economic development and innovation-driven growth [7][8] - The potential for growth in strategic emerging industries is highlighted, with expectations for positive contributions to GDP and tax revenue, indicating a favorable outlook for the effectiveness of these investments [8]

Report Title - 9 月地方债计划发行 7658 亿——政府债周报（8/31） [1][4] Report Core View - 报告对 8 月 25 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债发行情况进行复盘与预告，同时展示特殊债发行进展 [2][4][5] Report Key Points 地方债发行情况 - 9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债披露发行 933.91 亿元，其中新增债 178.37 亿元（新增专项债 178.37 亿元），再融资债 755.54 亿元 [2][4] - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债共发行 3515.97 亿元，其中新增债 2232.89 亿元（新增一般债 353.10 亿元，新增专项债 1879.79 亿元），再融资债 1283.08 亿元 [2][5] 特殊债发行进展 - 截至 8 月 31 日，第四轮特殊再融资债共披露 44093.73 亿元，2025 年已披露 20208.48 亿元，下周新增披露 0.00 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 5647.00 亿元、湖南 2787.32 亿元、河南 2556.26 亿元 [6] - 截至 8 月 31 日，2025 年特殊新增专项债共披露 4407.33 亿元，2023 年以来共披露 16312.46 亿元，披露规模前三为江苏 2102.35 亿元、湖北 1287.69 亿元、新疆 1188.60 亿元；2025 年披露规模前三为江苏 951.00 亿元、河北 391.43 亿元、湖北 369.13 亿元 [6] 地方债净供给与发行进度 - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债净供给 2435 亿元，9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债预告净供给 367 亿元 [12][13][19] - 截至 8 月 31 日，新增一般债发行进度 77.60%，新增专项债发行进度 74.18% [12][24] 特殊债发行统计 - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊再融资债统计情况，包含四轮发行额及各省市数据 [28][29] - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊新增专项债统计情况，包含 2023 - 2025 年各省市数据 [31][32] 地方债投资与交易 - 展示地方债一二级利差情况 [35][36] - 展示分区域二级利差情况，涉及多个省市不同时间数据 [37] 新增专项债投向 - 涉及新增专项债投向及项目投向逐月统计 [11][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and regional characteristics in the primary market, as well as the trading volume, price fluctuations, and regional differences in the secondary market [10][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, including 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. As of August 22, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in August reached 55 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance [10]. - **Fund Use**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund investment [10]. - **Pricing**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 23BP, 22BP, and 19BP respectively [17]. - **Regional Differences**: In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hunan, and Jiangsu were the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangsu's issuance scale of local bonds with a term of 7 years and less exceeded 50 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia, Gansu, and Jilin were above 2.2% [20]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Price Fluctuations**: Last week, the weekly fluctuations of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes were a decline of 0.56% and 1.03% respectively, with a larger decline than the same - term treasury bonds and the same performance as ultra - long - term credit bonds [23]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Sichuan government bonds decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with a weekly decrease of 160 transactions. The trading volumes of local bonds in Guangxi and Zhejiang increased marginally [23]. - **Trading Income**: The average trading terms of government bonds in Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan were over 25 years, and the average trading income was basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From August 25th to August 31st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 351.597 billion yuan, including 223.289 billion yuan of new bonds (35.31 billion yuan of new general bonds and 187.979 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 128.308 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (65.693 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 62.615 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From August 18th to August 24th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 369.15 billion yuan, including 248.807 billion yuan of new bonds (9.539 billion yuan of new general bonds and 239.268 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 120.343 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (46.873 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 73.47 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Government Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From August 18th to August 24th, the net supply of local government bonds is 208.8 billion yuan [13]. - **Comparison between Plan and Actual Issuance**: In July, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds. In August, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][20]. - **Net Supply of Local Government Bonds**: The forecasted net supply of local government bonds from August 25th to August 31st is 243.5 billion yuan [18]. - **Issuance Progress of New Bonds**: As of August 24th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 71.67%, and that of new special bonds is 69.54% [28]. - **Net Supply of Refinancing Bonds**: As of August 24th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities is presented in the report [28]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 4409.373 billion yuan, with 2020.848 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 29.123 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hunan, and Henan [6]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 440.733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 1631.246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds and the secondary spreads by region [39][40]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [42].