分地区观察，截至发稿时，已披露明年一季度计划发债规模排名前三的依次是：四川（1887亿元）、江西（1285亿元）和广西（1113.03亿 元），其中四川是目前计划发债相对最多的地区。 发行节奏上，各地具体时点上的安排也值得关注。由目前已披露的情况统计，总体发行高峰预计将出现在2026年1月下旬和3月上旬，这两个 时段的地方债发行计划合计超3000亿元，新债一级市场或将形成相对集中的"供给高峰"。 | | | | | 各地已披露的2026年一季度地方债发行计划 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | | 1月 | | | 2月 | | | 3月 | | | | 上旬 | 中旬 | 下旬 | 上旬 | 中旬 | 下旬 | 上旬 | 中旬 | 下旬 | | 北京 | | | | | | | | | | | 下海 | | | | | | | | | | | 广东 | | | | | | | | | | | 浙江 | | | 681. 85 | | | | | | | | 江苏 | | | 200. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, progress of new - bond and refinancing - bond issuance, and the issuance details of special bonds. It provides a comprehensive overview of the local government bond market situation from December 15 to December 28, 2025, and the long - term issuance status of special bonds [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted issuance is 204 million yuan, including 204 million yuan of new bonds (0 yuan of new general bonds and 204 million yuan of new special bonds) and 0 yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond actual issuance is 4.004 billion yuan, including 3.522 billion yuan of new bonds (596 million yuan of new general bonds and 2.926 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 482 million yuan of refinancing bonds [1][5]. 3.2 Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 200 billion yuan, and the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 28.81 billion yuan, with 0 yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Hunan (128.8 billion yuan), and Henan (122.7 billion yuan) [5]. - As of 12/21, 2025 special new special bonds total 136.6808 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (128.9 billion yuan), Guangdong (123.928 billion yuan), and Henan (75.96 billion yuan) [6]. 3.3 Local Bond Net Supply - 12/15 - 12/21 local bond net supply is 2.81 billion yuan, and 12/22 - 12/28 local bond forecasted net supply is - 320 million yuan [13]. 3.4 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/21, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 95.81%, and that of new special bonds is 99.96% [24]. 3.5 Refinancing Bond Net Supply The report provides a chart showing the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities from 2020 to 2025 as of 12/21 [26]. 3.6 Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: The report details the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions from 2019 to 2025, including first - round to sixth - round issuances [30]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: It shows the issuance amounts of special new special bonds in different years for various regions as of 12/21 [33]. 3.7 Local Bond Investment and Trading - One - and Two - Level Spreads: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds on 12/14 and 12/21 [37]. - Regional Two - Level Spreads: It provides the two - level spreads of different regions from 9/12/2025 to 12/19/2025 [38]. 3.8 New Special Bond Investment Direction The report mentions the investment direction of new special bonds, but specific details are not elaborated, only indicating that the latest month's statistics only consider issued new bonds [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds. In the primary market, there are changes in net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and fundraising directions. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads and trading volume of local government bonds have their own characteristics. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 40 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 28.1 billion yuan, including 6 billion yuan in new general bonds, 29.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 0.9 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.2 billion yuan and a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [1][3] - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (36%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 87%, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 5%, 36%, 18%, 7%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20 - year local government bonds decreased by about 14 percentage points. [1] - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2,298.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds, including 2,000 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou have 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1.2 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1,366.8 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025. [2][19] - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 20.7bp, widening compared to the previous week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of the rest widened. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp. [2] - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds since 2025 have been cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve (+17.1%) increased significantly, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (-8.5%) decreased significantly. [2] - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in October and November, the total disclosed issuance scale for the fourth quarter is about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Additionally, 18 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance scale of about 1.07 trillion yuan, including 571.6 billion yuan in January. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 439.6 billion yuan and 625.7 billion yuan respectively. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spread of 1 - year local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds reached 18.9bp and 18.7bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 79% and 55% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in strong and medium - strength regions were relatively high, both above 16bp, and the 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region also had relatively high secondary spreads. [5] - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous week. The local government bonds in Ningxia and Shenzhen had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 432 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.79%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local government bonds was large, reaching 40.5 billion yuan; the turnover rates of Ningxia and Shenzhen's local government bonds were relatively high, both reaching 2.3%. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From November 24th to November 30th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 329.69 billion yuan, including 224.12 billion yuan of new bonds (8.75 billion yuan of new general bonds and 215.37 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 105.57 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (66.39 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 39.19 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - From November 17th to November 23rd, the actual issuance of local government bonds was 184.66 billion yuan, including 102.67 billion yuan of new bonds (20.36 billion yuan of new general bonds and 82.31 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 81.99 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (46.66 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 35.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] Summary by Directory Local Government Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from November 17th to November 23rd was 126.7 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from November 24th to November 30th is 304.2 billion yuan [19] - There are differences between the planned issuance and actual issuance of local government bonds in October and November [15][20] Local Government Bond Net Supply - As of November 23rd, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 89.92%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 96.69% [26] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of November 23rd is presented in the relevant chart [26] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of November 23rd, the total disclosed amount of the second batch of the fifth - round special refinancing bonds was 1998.887 billion yuan, and the total disclosed amount of the sixth - round special refinancing bonds was 217.56 billion yuan, with an additional 69.113 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the disclosed scale of the second batch of the fifth - round are Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Hunan (128.8 billion yuan), and Henan (121.587 billion yuan) [5] - As of November 23rd, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 was 1296.705 billion yuan, and since 2023, it was 2484.569 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of the disclosed scale are Jiangsu (244.035 billion yuan), Hubei (133.769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (131.17 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (128.9 billion yuan), Guangdong (102.748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (72.997 billion yuan) [6] Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented in the relevant charts, including the overall first - level spread and the second - level spread by region [37][40] - The investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions are also provided [42]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, indicating a slight acceleration in growth compared to the previous nine months [1] - Public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Revenue Analysis - In October, public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with tax revenue increasing by 8.6% while non-tax revenue fell by 33% [1] - Major tax categories showed varied performance: VAT revenue grew by 7.2%, consumption tax revenue increased by 4.5%, while corporate income tax growth slowed to 7.3% [2][4] - Personal income tax revenue surged by 27.3%, reflecting both a low base effect and improved tax collection efforts [2] Expenditure Analysis - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in the previous month, indicating a significant drop in spending [4][5] - The decline in expenditure is attributed to a high base from the previous year and local fiscal constraints [4] - Infrastructure-related spending saw substantial declines, with specific categories like energy conservation and transportation experiencing double-digit decreases [4][5] Broader Fiscal Context - The cumulative growth rate of general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 76.0%, below the five-year average of 77.4% [5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% in October, a significant drop compared to a 2.3% increase in September, influenced by high base effects and prior fiscal measures [6] Future Outlook - The issuance of 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt is expected to accelerate in November and December, potentially supporting fiscal expenditure and economic recovery [1][6][7] - The implementation of new policy financial tools also indicates a strengthening of fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrowing of the yield spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics and a potential increase in local bond issuance in the coming week [2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds has decreased, suggesting a change in investor sentiment and market conditions [2] - The upcoming week is expected to see a significant acceleration in local government bond issuance, which may impact overall market liquidity and investor strategies [2] Group 2: Local Government Bond Issuance - The article highlights that local government bonds are likely to be issued at a faster pace, reflecting the need for funding in various local projects and initiatives [2] - This increase in issuance may lead to a more competitive environment for investors, as they assess the risk and return profiles of these bonds compared to national government bonds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - From November 10 - 16, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 2850.66 billion yuan, including 1519.16 billion yuan of new bonds (125.18 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1393.99 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1331.50 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (854.25 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 477.25 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From November 3 - 9, local government bonds were actually issued worth 916.07 billion yuan, including 452.11 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 452.11 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 463.97 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (336.64 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 127.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local government bonds with pre - issuance disclosures, but specific data presentation is mainly through figures [14]. - **Planned Issuance vs. Actual Issuance**: Compares planned and actual issuances of new and refinancing bonds, with specific data presented in figures [16]. - **Local Government Bond Net Supply**: From November 3 - 9, the net supply of local government bonds was - 360 billion yuan; from November 10 - 16, the forecasted net supply is 2428 billion yuan [19]. - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 91.65% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of November 9 is presented in a figure [28]. 2.2 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 19962.24 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 1111.43 billion yuan, with an additional 537.69 billion yuan newly disclosed for the next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1189.24 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 12518.43 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 24397.06 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2025 were Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [8]. 2.3 Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Compares the primary - secondary spreads of local government bonds on November 2 and November 9, presented in figures [40]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: Compares regional secondary spreads of local government bonds, presented in a figure [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: Presents the investment directions of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds, presented in a figure [42].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 is expected to continue with an "early and strong support" approach, with over 9 trillion yuan issued in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - In October, local governments disclosed bond issuance plans totaling 540.6 billion yuan, with 68% (367.8 billion yuan) being new special bonds, indicating a significant push towards year-end issuance [1] - As of the end of September, a total of 85.457 trillion yuan in local government bonds had been issued, comprising 43.615 trillion yuan in new bonds and 41.842 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds [1] Group 2: Allocation of Funds - From January to September, new special bonds were primarily allocated to four key areas: municipal and industrial park infrastructure (27.7%), transportation infrastructure (18.2%), land reserves (14.2%), and affordable housing projects (12.0%) [2] - The issuance plans for October show a focus on supporting infrastructure projects, with increased backing for the real estate sector through the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [2] Group 3: Future Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit to ensure funding for major projects and support economic recovery [3] - The Ministry will allocate up to 60% of the new debt limit for the following year in the fourth quarter of the current year, facilitating the construction funding needs for key projects in early 2026 [3] - Local governments are already initiating project reserve work for 2026, focusing on forward-looking sectors such as new energy and new infrastructure [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Local Governments - Experts suggest that local governments should proactively plan for next year's projects to align with the upcoming early issuance of the 2026 debt limit, ensuring effective cross-year coordination [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that there is still room for the narrowing of local government bond spreads. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volumes [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bond issuance reached 270.7 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 12.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 178 billion yuan, including 17 billion yuan in new general bonds, 154.9 billion yuan in new special bonds, 77.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 21.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local government bonds was the highest at 24%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 63%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportion of 5 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, 24.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2.0536 trillion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan having 251.1 billion yuan, 132.4 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 116.1 billion yuan respectively [2][17]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 17.5bp, lower than last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 22.8bp. Except for 5 - year and 30 - year bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Shandong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds raised since 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (16%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). In 2025, the proportion of land reserve investment increased by 16.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.0% [2][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 33 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in October, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is about 1.3 trillion yuan, with 705 billion yuan in November. Next week, 91.6 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment of 127.6 billion yuan and a net repayment of 36 billion yuan, a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of all terms widened. The secondary spreads of 3 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year bonds reached 19.6bp, 18.7bp, and 18.5bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, ranging from 18 - 21bp, and the 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Hebei and Guizhou had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 385.3 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.72%. Hebei had a large trading volume of 42.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Hebei and Guizhou were the highest, reaching 1.8% and 1.7% respectively [5][41].