Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi Provincial Finance Department held a meeting to recognize outstanding underwriting institutions for government bonds in 2024, emphasizing the importance of financial support for the local economy and the need for enhanced collaboration between finance and fiscal sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Highlights - The meeting included participation from 10 banks and 6 securities companies, which were awarded for their contributions to the bond issuance process [1]. - The Finance Department expressed gratitude to the institutions for their efforts in supporting Shanxi's fiscal initiatives and the broader economy [1]. Group 2: Key Requirements - The first requirement is to enhance the market-oriented level of bond issuance, encouraging healthy competition in the primary market and expanding trading scenarios in the secondary market [1]. - The second requirement focuses on deepening cooperation, utilizing local bonds as a bridge to foster collaboration between fiscal and financial sectors, and optimizing service levels [2]. - The third requirement aims to promote investment and stabilize growth through effective financial services and support for key transformation projects, contributing to the high-quality development of Shanxi [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance progress of local government bonds and special refinancing bonds in 2025. It details the actual and forecasted issuance amounts of local government bonds from August 4 - 10 and August 11 - 17, as well as the issuance status of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds as of August 10 [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - From August 4 - 10, local bonds issued a total of 1654.59 billion yuan, including 475.49 billion yuan of new bonds (72.83 billion yuan of new general bonds and 402.66 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1179.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (819.06 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 360.04 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][5]. - From August 11 - 17, the disclosed issuance of local bonds is 914.32 billion yuan, including 493.56 billion yuan of new bonds (303.21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 190.34 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 420.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (286.32 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 134.45 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][4]. - The plan and actual issuance of local bonds in July and August are compared, and the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing of local bonds in recent months are presented [15][17][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 66.68%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 63.67% [26]. - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities as of August 10 is presented [26]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 10, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 43557.43 billion yuan, with 19672.18 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 12.11 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (5647.00 billion yuan), Hunan (2787.32 billion yuan), and Shandong (2413.98 billion yuan) [6]. - As of August 10, the total disclosed amount of special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 is 4407.33 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 16312.46 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2102.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1188.60 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (951.00 billion yuan), Hebei (391.43 billion yuan), and Hubei (369.13 billion yuan) [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local bonds are presented, including the spreads of different tenors and the changes over time [39]. - The second - level spreads of local bonds in different regions from May to August 2025 are provided [42]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions The monthly statistics of the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [45].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has significantly slowed down in the first five months of 2023, with a total issuance of 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.25% [2]. Summary by Sections Issuance Data - From January to May 2023, local government bonds totaled 2.82 trillion yuan, down 20.25% year-on-year, with a net financing amount of 1.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.04% [2] - New bond issuance reached 1.45 trillion yuan, down 31.92% year-on-year, completing only 31.31% of the annual new limit of 4.62 trillion yuan, which is 16 percentage points slower than the same period last year [2] - Special bond issuance was 1.15 trillion yuan, down 34.69% year-on-year, completing 29.61% of the annual new limit of 3.9 trillion yuan, also slower than last year's pace by 17 percentage points [2] Recent Trends - In June, the issuance of local bonds accelerated, with several provinces including Tibet, Yunnan, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu announcing their issuance plans [2] - In May, the issuance of new special bonds increased significantly to 438.3 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 350 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in issuance speed [3] Factors Affecting Issuance - The slow issuance of local bonds is attributed to several factors, including the reduced urgency for large-scale issuance due to the good economic performance at the beginning of the year and the significant funds from the previous year's national bond issuance [8][9] - The central government's policies have also shifted the focus towards managing existing debt rather than increasing new debt, leading to a more cautious approach in bond issuance [10] Impact on Local Finances - The slowdown in special bond issuance has increased financial pressure on local governments, particularly affecting their ability to maintain essential expenditures such as social welfare, salaries, and operational costs [12][15] - The reliance on special bonds has grown as land revenue decreases, making it a crucial source of funding for local governments [13][15] Future Outlook - The issuance of special bonds is expected to maintain a rapid pace in June, with plans for approximately 510 billion yuan in new special bonds across 30 provinces [3][16] - The overall bond issuance is anticipated to peak in the third quarter, as local governments aim to meet their annual financing needs [16]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年特殊再融资债供给已逾 1.96 万亿 ——政府债周报（8/3） 报告要点 %% %% [Table_Summary] 7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日地方债共发行 3371.75 亿元。其中新增债 2041.17 亿元（新增一般债 209.13 亿元，新增专项债 1832.04 亿元），再融资债 1330.58 亿元（再融资一般债 631.70 亿元，再 融资专项债 698.88 亿元）。 8 月 4 日-8 月 10 日地方债披露发行 1654.59 亿元。其中新增债 475.49 亿元（新增一般债 72.83 亿元，新增专项债 402.66 亿元），再融资债 1179.10 亿元（再融资一般债 819.06 亿元，再融 资专项债 360.04 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 %% %% [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 发行复盘 7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日地方债共发行 ...

Group 1 - Ningbo issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 4.29333 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7700%, and a marginal multiple of 2.69, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.86 [1] - Ningbo issued 7-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 412 million, an issuance rate of 1.7400%, and a marginal multiple of 7.99, significantly higher than the expected multiple of 2.04 [1]

Group 1 - Hunan issued a 5-year general special local bond with a scale of 200 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.6900%, with a marginal multiple of 13.13 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.66 [1] - Hunan also issued a 7-year general special local bond with a scale of 238 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.7400%, with a marginal multiple of 1.11 times, below the expected multiple of 1.76 [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 37.75 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.81% with a marginal multiple of 5.42, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.78 [1] - Xinjiang issued 5-year general local bonds with a scale of 4.75 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.63% with a marginal multiple of 1.83, surpassing the expected multiple of 1.65 [1] - Xinjiang issued 10-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 19.32 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.83% with a marginal multiple of 2.16, higher than the expected multiple of 1.79 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Province issued a 20-year ordinary special local bond with a scale of 703.43 million yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.10% [1] Group 1 - The bond issuance was oversubscribed with a marginal multiple of 2.29 times, compared to an expected multiple of 2.08 [1]

Group 1 - Jiangsu issued 20-year general special local bonds with a scale of 28.932 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.04%, with a marginal multiple of 3.97 times, compared to an expected multiple of 2.40 [1] - Jiangsu issued 30-year general special local bonds with a scale of 5.251 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.03%, with a marginal multiple of 2.79 times, compared to an expected multiple of 4.95 [1]