Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the risk of supply disruption has significantly weakened, but the arrival of the summer demand peak season may limit the speed of oil price decline. The Middle - East situation and the realization of the Northern Hemisphere's peak oil demand season in the next week need to be closely monitored [2][3]. - The market may fluctuate between supply disruptions and slowing demand, leading to high - level oscillations in oil prices. However, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of decline triggered by macro - economic factors. SC crude oil may show differentiation from international oil prices due to domestic factors, but the sharp drop at the close indicates a possible shift in market sentiment [69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Movements**: As of June 23, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price rebounded slightly from 566.6 yuan/barrel to 574.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% increase, but dropped 5.65% to 538 yuan/barrel in the night session. WTI and Brent tumbled 9.2% and 9.82% to 67.23 dollars/barrel and 69.73 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened 559.35% to 10.22 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened 163.35% to 12.72 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread narrowed 23.78% to 2.5 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply**: Trump's post on social media stating that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease - fire led to the first round of crude oil price decline, with overnight prices dropping over 5% [2]. - **Demand**: Demand showed regional differentiation. India's crude oil imports in May increased 5.9% year - on - year to 23.3 million tons, and diesel and gasoline exports rose 9.7% and 13.7% respectively. However, demand concerns emerged in Europe and Southeast Asia. Refinery profits also varied, with China's diesel crack spread remaining at a high of 15 dollars/barrel in May, while the seasonal accumulation of US gasoline inventories pressured the crack spread [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory dimension presented contradictory signals. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil at the Shanghai Energy Exchange remained at 4.029 million barrels, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil were 0 tons and 22,800 tons respectively, suggesting limited physical delivery pressure in China [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed, with SC rising, and WTI and Brent falling. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI showed significant movements. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and API inventories decreased, while the strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. US refinery weekly operating rates and crude oil processing volumes declined [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed, with some rising and some falling. Spot prices of different fuel oil types also had various changes. Spreads such as the Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and inventory in Singapore decreased [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On June 23, Venezuela's second - largest refinery shut down due to a power outage. Multiple foreign oil companies in Iraq evacuated staff, and Russia's Rosneft will suspend production at the Sakhalin - 1 project in August for maintenance. Thailand considered banning oil and electricity supply to Cambodia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Spain's national airline suspended flights to Doha on June 23, and Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport will resume limited flight operations [8]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had different price changes. Brazil's national oil company did not plan to raise fuel prices for now. The LPG main contract fell 2.00%. Some companies' stock prices and project progress were also reported [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data from different regions [13][15][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Market Overview - On June 23, PTA futures experienced a rebound after a decline, with a general atmosphere in the spot market and a slight increase in spot offers. The mainstream supply was focused on long-term sources, with June transactions mainly around 09+260 to 270, and individual prices slightly higher, within a negotiation range of 5220 to 5300 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 398 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 was 344 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates dropped to 79.1%, a decrease of 3.9% [3] - Demand: Following routine maintenance on one unit and the restart of two units, the polyester comprehensive operating rate increased to around 92%, up by 1.1%. However, the demand from downstream sectors remains weak, with inventory accumulation in the terminal dyeing and weaving sectors [3] Price Trends and Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the outlook for PTA supply and demand remains weak due to new installations coming online and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, which is expected to negatively impact PTA in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are driving oil prices higher, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $81.4 per barrel. However, the likelihood of a sustained blockade is low due to the economic repercussions for Iran and other Middle Eastern countries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage, accounting for approximately 25%-30% of global seaborne oil trade, which translates to about 20 million barrels per day [12]. - Iran's threats to block the Strait are primarily strategic posturing rather than a feasible action, as such a blockade would severely impact its own economy [3][22]. - Historical instances of Iran threatening to block the Strait have not resulted in sustained actions, indicating a pattern of strategic deterrence rather than actual implementation [16][20]. Group 2: Oil Price Predictions - Short-term oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude potentially reaching $85 per barrel [5][23]. - A complete blockade of the Strait could lead to uncontrollable oil price surges, but international intervention is likely to prevent such extreme scenarios [6][23]. - The overall dependence of Western markets on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, with current reliance at approximately 4 million barrels per day, suggesting that the structural risks are manageable [7][22]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of the Strait - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy security, with over 70% of China's oil imports from the Middle East passing through this route, underscoring its significance for China's energy supply [13][14]. - The Strait's geographical constraints make it susceptible to blockades, but its strategic importance ensures that any attempts to disrupt shipping would have far-reaching consequences [10][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 19, equity index futures declined while 30 - Y CGB futures rose; energy & chemical futures increased, while metal futures declined [2][10][12] - The MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [1][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On June 19, equity index futures declined, 30 - Y CGB futures rose, energy & chemical futures increased, and metal futures declined. The top three gainers were Chinese jujube (up 4.9% with 29.6% month - on - month open interest increase), crude oil (up 4.7% with 8.4% month - on - month open interest increase), and LSFO (up 2.7% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.0% with 0.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), poly - silicon (down 2.5% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and silver (down 1.9% with 13.1% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Crude Oil - On June 19, crude oil increased by 4.7% to 570.9 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical uncertainties put oil prices in a high - risk phase, expected to be volatile. API data showed a significant draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but gasoline inventories declined more modestly. The IEA monthly report revised down annual demand growth forecast and raised supply expectations. Short - term Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate oil price fluctuations. Attacks on energy infrastructure have occurred but haven't materially affected production or transportation. If geopolitical tensions ease, premiums may decline rapidly, but supply disruption expectations are hard to falsify, leading to more volatile oil prices [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Copper - On June 19, copper decreased by 0.4% to 78310 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support the bottom of copper prices, and it may show high - level volatility in the short term. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with overseas economic weakening risks. Copper concentrate and blister copper processing fees are low, and raw material supplies are tight. Domestic and overseas smelters have cut production. As the consumption off - season approaches, downstream replenishment willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rebound, limiting price upside. The U.S. may increase copper tariffs, causing the COMEX copper price to rise again [22][23][24] 3.1.3.2 Gold - On June 19, gold decreased by 0.5% to 781.24 yuan/gram. The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, indicating two rate cuts this year. It lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, validating stagflation risks. After the meeting, gold had a slight late - session decline but maintained an overall volatile trend. The Israel - Palestine conflict continues but with no significant intensity escalation, and the safe - haven sentiment driving gold is gradually weakening. Since June, gold's correction magnitude has narrowed, and its price center has moved upward, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, with silver following a relatively strong volatile pattern [29][30][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MOFCOM stated that China is fully prepared for CPTPP accession and will actively align with high - standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also said that it will continuously accelerate the review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations and strengthen communication on export controls with relevant countries [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - As of June 19, the total dividend amount of public funds this year exceeded 107.66 billion yuan, a 47% increase year - on - year. At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the HKEX CEO said there are over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges should develop in a dislocation manner to jointly promote the construction of a multi - level capital market system [36][37]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

据追风交易台消息， 摩根大通大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva发布的最新报告显示，仅仅一天之内，该行 对"最坏情景"的概率预测从7%暴涨至17% ——这 意味着 霍尔木兹海峡封闭 、油价指数级飙升的可能性增加了一倍多。 当战火延烧至伊朗核心能源动脉时，全球市场正屏息以待一场可能重塑中东能源格局的升级。 据央视新闻报道，14日伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭遇以色列空袭，南帕尔斯炼油厂第14期项目设施爆炸起火，法杰尔·贾姆炼油厂同样遭到袭击。伊朗伊 斯兰共和国通讯社援引布什尔省危机管理部门官员的话报道说，两处设施的火势已于14日晚得到控制，暂无人员伤亡报告。 这是以色列首次直接打击伊朗能源基础设施，也是上世纪80年代两伊战争以来首次有伊朗境内炼油厂遇袭。 分析认为， 以色列至少在现阶段试图限制对国际市场的影响和连锁反应，这种"有限升级"策略能否持续，完全取决于伊朗的反应强度。 Kaneva指出， 地缘政治溢价已经比其模型推导的66美元公允价值高出10美元，表明最坏情况发生的概率为17%。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在摩根大通设定的"最坏情景"下，包括油价反应从线性转为指数级，供应影响可能超出伊朗石油出口减少210 ...

Group 1 - Brent crude oil experienced its largest daily increase since 2022, with a surge of 11.3%, reaching $78.5 per barrel, while WTI crude peaked at $74.63 per barrel [2][3] - Iran's oil production stands at 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports between 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of global production [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to impact oil exports, potentially leading to sustained high oil prices [7][8] Group 2 - Experts recommend a cautious approach to trading, advising against short positions while awaiting the outcome of negotiations [10] - The polyester market is responding to rising oil prices, with significant price increases observed in various polyester products, indicating a strong market demand despite concerns from downstream buyers [10][11] - The average transaction prices for key materials have shown notable increases, with PX rising by 36 to $854 and PTA rising by 155 to $5010 [15]

Group 1 - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $3400 per ounce mark, reflects deep-seated global investor anxiety regarding economic prospects [1][3] - The recent increase in gold purchases by central banks, up 37% year-on-year in May, indicates a growing trend of countries accumulating gold as a hedge against currency credit concerns [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and rising right-wing movements in Europe, are contributing to the demand for gold as a safe haven asset [3] Group 2 - Silver's recent price increase is driven by its industrial demand, particularly in solar energy, where it accounts for over 50% of its usage [4] - The spike in silver prices is also linked to the shift of funds from gold to silver, as the gold-silver ratio currently stands at a historical high of 85:1, suggesting potential for silver to catch up [5] - The silver market's smaller size makes it more susceptible to speculative trading, as evidenced by a 12% increase in open interest for silver futures [6] Group 3 - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns about potential market corrections if the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive interest rate path [7] - Technical indicators show that both gold and silver are in overbought territory, with historical data suggesting a high probability of price corrections following significant daily gains [7] - The potential tightening of global liquidity, particularly if the Bank of Japan reduces its bond purchases, could negatively impact precious metals [7] Group 4 - Forecasts for gold prices vary, with Goldman Sachs raising its three-month target to $3550 due to geopolitical risks, while Morgan Stanley suggests that current prices already reflect these risks and recommends profit-taking [8] - A cautious approach is being adopted by some investors, with strategies to maintain long positions in gold while adjusting stop-loss levels, indicating a nuanced market sentiment [8] - The discussion around gold among retail investors may signal a nearing peak in the current market cycle, while central banks may view the $3400 level as a new baseline for foreign reserves [8]