Core Insights - The European natural gas market is experiencing significant volatility due to a combination of severe cold weather and urgent inventory shortages, leading to the largest monthly price increase in over two years, with a cumulative rise of approximately 36% this month [1][3] - The market sentiment has fundamentally reversed in the past month, driven by a surge in gas consumption and disruptions in U.S. production due to a winter storm, prompting traders to cover previously held short positions [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions involving Iran and the situation in Ukraine, are adding layers of uncertainty to energy prices, making them more sensitive to traditional supply and demand data [5][6] Market Dynamics - The ongoing cold wave and rapid depletion of fuel inventories have heightened concerns over supply security, with current inventory levels falling below seasonal norms, creating a tight supply-demand balance [4][5] - Despite a rebound in U.S. LNG exports alleviating some panic, the impending cold snap in Europe is expected to increase heating demand, further straining already tight inventory buffers [4][6] - The benchmark Dutch gas futures for March delivery were trading at €38.59 per megawatt-hour, reflecting significant volatility, with prices having risen as much as 2% during early trading [6]

受美国可能对中东核心产油国伊朗发动打击的忧虑驱动，国际油价周四上涨1.5%，实现连续三个交易日上 行。市场正极度担忧该地区的供应链可能因军事冲突而彻底中断。资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链 工具石油ETF（561360）连续5日吸金近17亿元，规模、流动性同类第一。 在全球能源转型与地缘格局演变的复杂背景下，石油化工行业正经历旧格局重塑与新周期启动的关键过渡 阶段。结合行业最新动态，本文将从供给侧扰动、需求侧复苏、产业结构升级及投资策略等维度，系统梳 理当前石油化工板块的投资逻辑。 【供给侧：地缘风险叠加极端天气，全球供给扰动加剧】 油价飙升的核心逻辑在于不断升级的地缘政治溢价，特朗普总统已显著加大对伊朗的施压，要求其彻底终 止核计划。消息面称，目前美国海军编队已抵达中东海域。 近期地缘政治紧张与美国极端寒潮共同冲击全球能源与化工品供给，导致油价淡季反弹，并可能引发部分 化工品供应短缺，为价格提供支撑。 供给侧正面临"宏观地缘"与"微观天气"的双重冲击。 宏观地缘层面，伊朗局势动荡与委内瑞拉格局生变，再次引发市场对石油供应中断的担忧。伊朗占据全球 石油运输咽喉霍尔木兹海峡，任何不稳定都可能导致供应风险溢价上 ...

Group 1: Sulfur - Sulfur is identified as a long-term bullish commodity due to geopolitical conflicts affecting supply, particularly with a projected impact of 1 million tons of sulfur supply from Russia in Q4 2023, and recovery expected to be difficult until mid-2026 [1] - Demand for sulfur is anticipated to increase significantly, with China's lithium iron phosphate production expected to exceed 3.6 million tons in 2025, leading to an additional demand of 1.06 million tons of sulfur [1] - The supply-demand gap for sulfur is projected to reach -3 million tons in 2025, -5.13 million tons in 2026, and -4.05 million tons in 2027, indicating potential price increases towards historical highs [1] Group 2: Crude Oil - The global oil market may experience a supply surplus through 2026, primarily due to production increases from non-OPEC+ countries and weak global demand growth [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and U.S. interventions in Venezuela, are expected to create risk premiums that could lead to significant short-term price volatility [2] - The supply side will be influenced by OPEC+ production commitments and U.S. shale oil output, while demand will be closely monitored in relation to China's inventory replenishment [2] Group 3: Strontium Carbonate - Strontium carbonate supply is highly dependent on Iran, with 70% of China's strontium ore imports coming from there, leading to increased supply uncertainty due to geopolitical risks [3] - The demand structure for strontium carbonate includes applications in strontium ferrite (66%), metallurgy (6.9%), electronic components (3.3%), and other strontium salts (21.7%) [3] - The material's properties, such as good conductivity and stability, position it well for high-quality optical glass manufacturing, suggesting a potential increase in demand as trends toward smart and high-end applications emerge [3] Group 4: Methanol - China has a high dependency on Iranian methanol imports, with 81,470 tons imported from Iran in the first 11 months of 2025, accounting for 6.4% of total methanol imports [4] - Historical data indicates that instability in Iran significantly affects domestic methanol prices, with a notable price increase of 300 yuan/ton observed during a previous conflict in June 2025 [4] - The current geopolitical situation in Iran is expected to maintain a relatively strong pricing trend for methanol in China [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium on crude oil due to the Iran situation is set to reverse, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down. For chemicals, high - supply and high - inventory situations in many products will cause price adjustments, with some products facing demand - side negative feedback [2] Content Summaries by Category Crude Oil - Logic: The Iran geopolitical sentiment peaked on the night of January 14 and reversed on January 15, leading to the reversal of the geopolitical premium on crude oil, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 447 [3] Asphalt - Logic: Weak supply - demand fundamentals during the off - season, potential recovery of Venezuela's oil exports, and a decline in the cost center due to the reversal of crude oil's geopolitical premium [6][7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [7] Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is decreasing, but the rate is slowing. Short - term supply - demand tightness provides support, but there is pressure on the cost center due to the potential decline in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the pre - holiday demand [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and wait for a short - selling opportunity after the price breaks the support [8] Pure Benzene - Logic: An increase in the pure benzene - styrene - methanol spread has pushed up the price, but high port inventories and potential downward pressure on crude oil prices pose risks. Avoid chasing high prices [12] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle breakdown [12] Rubber - Logic: Before the new tapping season, there is no supply - side speculation. High tire inventories limit demand, and high imports lead to high Qingdao inventories. It follows synthetic rubber passively [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The rebound of crude oil is likely to peak. The previous cost - push logic is weakening, and there are issues such as high inventories and weak downstream demand. It will be under cost - related pressure [18] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions from the 15 - minute cycle on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11950 [18] PX - Logic: Although the mid - term fundamentals are strong, recent supply increases and weak downstream demand have led to a short - term negative feedback. Wait for a second low - buying opportunity [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [20][23] PTA - Logic: High supply, weak downstream demand, and a decline in the cost center due to lower crude oil prices lead to short - term negative feedback [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [25] PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [27] Methanol - Logic: The supply speculation due to the Iran situation is cooling, and there is high domestic supply, a potential decline in coal prices, and demand - side negative feedback [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term both show a downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [30] PVC - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand persist. There is a short - term positive impact from potential power - price policies, but the long - term outlook is still bearish [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and use a short - selling strategy during small - cycle rebounds [33] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: High supply, weak demand during the off - season, and increasing port inventories drive the price down [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a profit - taking reference of 3770 [35] Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [38] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Wait for a reverse - package entry signal after a rebound on the hourly cycle [38] Soda Ash - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand. There will be a pre - April rush - to - export situation, but the post - April export pressure will increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy after a rebound [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities during small - cycle rebounds [40] Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and avoid bottom - fishing before the structure turns bullish [42]

Core Viewpoint - The overall commodity market has experienced a pullback after several weeks of significant gains, attributed to profit-taking and a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities, including gold and silver, have lost some geopolitical premium due to easing tensions in the Middle East [1] - The recent calming of geopolitical issues is linked to the stabilization of protests in Iran and a more cautious stance from U.S. President Trump, along with Russian President Putin's involvement in mediation [1] Group 2: Gold Price Forecast - The analyst, Edward Meir, maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting that prices could reach $5,000 at some point this year, although significant corrections are expected along the way [1]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is at a critical turning point influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with specific forecasts for various commodities through 2026 [1][20]. Oil Market - The short-term oil market is driven by geopolitical premiums, with a price target of $70 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as export disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya [3][6]. - However, the long-term outlook is bearish due to expected supply surplus and policy pressures, particularly from the U.S. government aiming for lower oil prices [6][20]. Precious Metals - In the precious metals sector, silver is expected to outperform gold, with target prices set at $100 per ounce for silver and $5,000 for gold, driven by current market momentum and capital flows [7][20]. - The report suggests that these high price levels may trigger hedging actions from producers and central banks [7]. Base Metals - Aluminum is identified as having the most structural opportunity, facing a significant supply deficit, with short-term price targets of $3,400 per ton and mid-term targets of $3,500 [8][20]. - In contrast, copper is forecasted to reach $14,000 per ton, but the confidence in this projection has weakened significantly since December, with a warning that January may be the peak for the year [11][20]. Lithium Market - The lithium market has seen a rebound of over 50%, primarily due to supply constraints from delays in mining operations and tightening policies [12][14]. - Citigroup has raised the three-month price target for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, reflecting strong demand from battery manufacturers [13][20]. - Despite the short-term strength, there is a cautious long-term outlook for lithium prices, anticipating downward pressure as supply increases [14]. Natural Gas and Agriculture - The natural gas market is expected to face long-term supply surplus challenges, with bearish views on LNG and European TTF gas prices starting from 2027 [15][20]. - In agriculture, a bullish outlook is maintained for most commodities, with sugar prices expected to rebound in 2026 due to increased demand from China and changes in Brazilian production [19][20].

Group 1: Market Developments - Tensions in Iran are escalating, with warnings issued to neighboring countries hosting U.S. military bases regarding potential strikes if the U.S. intervenes in domestic protests [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following threats from the Trump administration against Fed Chairman Powell, leading to support from global central bank leaders [1] - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15, affecting companies like Nvidia and AMD [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices rebounded significantly due to a weaker dollar and escalating tensions in Iran, as investors sought safe-haven assets [2] - The price of gold reached a historic high of $4643 per ounce, with potential for further increases if it surpasses $4650, targeting $4700 [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum may be waning, with a critical support level at $4500 per ounce if prices fall below $4600 [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 4610, 4626, and 4638, and support levels at 4584, 4575, and 4568 [3] - The daily chart for Euro to USD (EURUSD) also indicates a bullish trend, with resistance at 1.1644, 1.1654, and 1.1663, and support at 1.1629, 1.1818, and 1.1607 [4] Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic indicators include initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 10, the New York Fed manufacturing index, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, all scheduled for release at 21:30 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting the potential for price increases driven by military intervention risks and ongoing protests in the region [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen continuously for several days, with a cumulative increase of $5 per barrel [1] - The return of geopolitical premiums is noted, indicating that any conflict in the Middle East could lead to further price hikes [1] Group 2: Regional Stability and Market Outlook - The situation in South America is described as overall controllable, while the Middle East remains uncertain [1] - The U.S. is leaning towards military intervention, while Middle Eastern countries are seeking negotiations, leading to a cautious market outlook [1] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - Any military conflict is expected to push oil prices higher, with a warning about the potential for sudden price spikes due to military interventions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand of pure benzene is weak with limited drive, and prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600. For benzene - ethylene, short - term price support is strong, but the rebound space and sustainability are limited. Suggest to wait and see on the long side and focus on short - selling opportunities for EB03 [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - In Q1, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. PX prices will fluctuate between 7000 - 7500 in the short - term and can be considered for long positions in the medium - term. PTA will fluctuate between 5000 - 5300 in the short - term and can also be considered for long positions in the medium - term [2]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE, the marginal supply of the standard product is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand are both weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and it is short - term strong [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices maintain a range - bound trend. Geopolitical premiums support price rebounds, but the increase is limited under the weak supply - demand expectation. Pay attention to the pressure around 65 dollars per barrel for Brent [5]. LPG Industry No clear core view provided in the given content. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak - based shock pattern. Glass has good short - term shipments and inventory reduction, but there are still supply - demand pressures [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by the low profit of methanol - to - olefins and potential MTO device maintenance [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to be stable and weak. PVC supply - demand remains weak, and short - term pessimism may drag down the price [16]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are suppressed by weak supply - demand. Without new stimuli, they may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to device restart and downstream demand [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15500 - 16500, supported by raw material prices below and suppressed by weak demand above [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton. Pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.3% [1]. - **Benzene - Ethylene Related Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - ethylene spot price in East China rose 1.6% to 7000 yuan per ton, and EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased 42.1% [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Aniline cash flow increased 18.6%, while EPS cash flow decreased 183.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased 6.0%, and benzene - ethylene inventory decreased 4.7% [1]. - **开工率变化**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased 1.3%, and domestic benzene - ethylene operating rate increased 0.6% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price in East China decreased 0.7% to 5035 yuan per ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased 16.6% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price in East China decreased 0.5% to 3697 yuan per ton, and MEG import profit decreased 17.4% [2]. - **Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 72.5 million tons, and MEG arrival forecast increased 66.4% to 17.8 million tons [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX operating rate increased 0.4%, and PTA operating rate increased 0.1% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2605 closed at 6674 yuan per ton, up 0.69%, and PP2605 closed at 6514 yuan per ton, up 0.46% [3]. - **现货价格**: East China PP spot price rose 0.32% to 6300 yuan per ton, and North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.62% to 6520 yuan per ton [3]. - **库存**: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.54 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased 4.69% to 46.77 million tons [3]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.67%, and PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.47% [3]. Crude Oil Industry - **原油价格及价差**: Brent rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars per barrel [5]. - **成品油价格及价差**: NYM RBOB rose 1.15% to 178.06 cents per gallon, and ICE Gasoil rose 3.69% to 631.75 dollars per ton [5]. - **成品油裂解价差**: US gasoline cracking spread decreased 3.14%, and European gasoline cracking spread increased 8.70% [5]. LPG Industry - **LPG价格及价差**: PG2602 rose 0.52% to 4221 yuan per ton, and PG02 - 03 spread decreased 11.46% [8]. - **LPG外盘价格**: FEI swap M1 contract rose 2.09% to 513.50 dollars per ton, and CP swap M1 contract rose 1.06% to 522.50 dollars per ton [8]. - **库存**: LPG refinery storage ratio decreased 1.94% to 23.8%, and LPG port inventory decreased 0.41% to 213 million tons [8]. - **开工率**: Upstream - main refinery operating rate increased 2.49% to 76.98%, and downstream - PDH operating rate increased 0.68% to 75.6% [8]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **玻璃相关价格及价差**: North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1020 yuan per ton, and glass 2601 decreased 0.30% to 1010 yuan per ton [10]. - **纯碱相关价格及价差**: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan per ton, and soda ash 2601 decreased 1.30% to 1141 yuan per ton [10]. - **供应**: Soda ash operating rate rose 5.93% to 84.70%, and float glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [10]. - **库存**: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 million weight boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [10]. Methanol Industry - **甲醇价格及价差**: MA2605 closed at 2273 yuan per ton, up 1.88%, and MA59 spread increased 150.00% to 2 [11]. - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 million tons [12]. - **开工率**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%, and downstream - MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC、烧碱现货&期货**: Shandong 32% caustic soda price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan per ton, and East China PVC market price decreased 0.6% to 4620 yuan per ton [16]. - **烧碱海外报价&出口利润**: FOB East China port price decreased 1.4% to 350 dollars per ton, and export profit increased 23.6% to 216.5 yuan per ton [16]. - **PVC海外报价&出口利润**: CFR Southeast Asia price rose 1.7% to 610 dollars per ton, and export profit decreased 12.3% to - 8.8 yuan per ton [16]. - **供给**: Caustic soda operating rate increased 0.4% to 88.9%, and PVC total operating rate increased 2.0% to 78.9% [16]. - **需求**: Alumina industry operating rate increased 0.1% to 80.5%, and PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [16]. - **库存**: Caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased 1.8% to 23.4 million tons, and PVC total social inventory increased 4.0% to 54.6 million tons [16]. Urea Industry - **期货价格**: Urea 01 contract closed at 1690 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **现货价格**: Shandong small - particle urea price decreased 0.57% to 1750 yuan per ton [17]. - **供需面概览**: Domestic urea daily production rose 0.55% to 20.06 million tons, and domestic urea plant inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 million tons [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - **现货价格及基差**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber price in Shanghai decreased 0.95% to 15700 yuan per ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased 22.22% to - 330 yuan per ton [18]. - **月间价差**: 9 - 1 spread increased 100.00% to 0 [18]. - **生产及开工率**: November Thai rubber production decreased 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and automobile tire semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 2.36% to 65.89% [18]. - **库存变化**: Bonded area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE remained unchanged [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil price may be strong, with Brent possibly reaching the $65 - 68 per barrel range. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI still face significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of the outer market, testing 380 yuan per barrel. The oil price decline accelerated under the influence of the current trade friction, but the medium - and long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to the potential reversal of macro expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations [5]. - The Iranian situation has rapidly deteriorated, and there may be some emotional premium in the short term, continuing the upward trend. In the medium - and long - term, Venezuelan crude oil may have a greater impact on the heavy - oil market, with a temporarily limited marginal impact on the global crude oil market. At least Chinese local refineries will be the final recipients, and there is currently a large amount of crude oil in transit. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is difficult to interrupt, and attention should be paid to the rhythm. OPEC+ production increase continues, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to disprove global inventory accumulation in the next 3 months [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In 2026, the global crude oil supply is generally loose, with continuous structural surplus pressure. The demand growth rate significantly slows down, with an annual increase of only about 0.8%, and the demand structure is accelerating the shift from transportation fuel - driven to chemical raw material - driven [5]. - The short - term valuation is at a medium level. The strategy includes short - term unilateral waiting and not trying to go short prematurely, clearing long positions in calendar spreads and waiting, and closing long positions in EFS spread at high prices [7]. 2. Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again, short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to the medium - and long - term "re - inflation" trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [22][23][24]. 3. Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026. In 2025, OPEC+ had significant cumulative production increases. Non - OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana have high - level production operations, with an estimated supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - The supply situation varies by country. For example, the UAE's Upper Zakum crude oil faced weak demand in February 2025; Saudi Arabia plans to adjust the official selling price of crude oil in February, etc. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian issue, which may cause an emotional premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [8]. 4. Demand - The demand in developed economies is in a structural decline, while the demand increment mainly comes from non - OECD countries, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. China remains an important engine of demand growth in the Asia - Pacific region. The demand structure is shifting from transportation fuel to chemical raw materials [5]. - In Asia, China's new crude oil processing capacity since 2000 has exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day, and the second - batch non - state - owned import quota has been issued in 2026. In the US and Europe, the approaching spring refinery maintenance season will reduce the short - term demand for crude oil [10]. 5. Inventory - The US commercial inventory has stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventory has declined, and gasoline inventory has increased. The global in - transit crude oil inventory has declined from a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage is high [68][73][75]. 6. Price and Spread - The spot market performance during the holiday was weak. The Dubai crude oil spread in the Middle East reached a six - week high, and the freight rate of very large crude carriers from the world to Asia dropped significantly. The North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the SC valuation is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [85][94][95].