软商品日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

FFF START FREE 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 す77 煤期 河北折盘 西北折盘 CFR东南 量商行营 江苏现货 CFR中国 华南现货 进口利润| 主力基差 型商标准面 E lif E E 2210 2398 2315 2443 323 2205 263 -3 2220 2215 2395 2315 263 323 -7 2438 2213 2390 2213 2315 2438 263 323 -15 2210 2205 2390 2315 2438 259 321 -0 2243 2255 2400 2315 2468 图记 33 50 10 30 O 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 MA现货价格走势 MA基差 ● 华东出罐:中间价 ● 西北/陕西:中间价 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 ● 山东:中间价 ● MA进口折人民币 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | FUARI ABRIAL AND | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/26 | | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -79 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | 32 | 32 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | -79 | | -43 | -13 | 50 | -18 | -68 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -49 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | -68 | -68 | | | | 03-06 | -7 | | -12 | -21 | -24 | -38 | -14 | | | | 04-06 | -7 | | 3 | -5 | -8 | -24 | -16 | | | | 06-09 | 22 | | 31 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 0 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3279 | | 3373 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/10 4750 4475 4490 638 578 538 4450 7280 -305 324 2026/02/11 4750 4475 4430 635 581 538 4450 7250 -282 313 2026/02/12 4750 4467 4440 635 571 534 4460 7280 -274 296 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 541 4380 7300 -289 -58 日度变化 10 -43 30 19 32 12 -80 20 -118 -373 日度行情 2月24日， ...

20260224申万期货有色金属基差日报 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：春节假期LME铜价变化有限。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼 产量虽环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正 增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：春节假期LME锌价变化有限。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延 续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 ...

1. Report Summary - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for February 24, 2026, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 2. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From February 9 to February 13, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a trend of narrowing negative values, from -104.4 yuan/ton to -83.4 yuan/ton [2] 3. Energy Chemicals 3.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt base prices are provided from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [7] 3.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are shown [9] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period data such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol and other chemicals are provided [10] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety data such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [10] 4. Black Metals 4.1 Base Price - Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [21] 4.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore and other black metals are provided [20] 4.3 Inter - variety - Inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [20] 5. Non - Ferrous Metals 5.1 Domestic Market - Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are shown [29] 5.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss on February 13, 2026 are provided [34] 6. Agricultural Products 6.1 Base Price - Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [41] 6.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2 and other agricultural products are provided [41] 6.3 Inter - variety - Inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are presented [40][41] 7. Stock Index Futures 7.1 Base Price - Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 9 to February 13, 2026 are given [54] 7.2 Inter - period - Inter - period data such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [52]

s 加安期货 10/1 11/1 9/1 -100 - -300 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIND L'O HOLOGIA EVEV | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/23 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 华东基差(镇江库) | -56 -56 | -54 -4 | -63 -13 | -93 -43 | -63 -13 | 30 30 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -56 | -54 | -63 | -93 | -63 | 30 | | | 基差&月差 | 03-06 | -7 | -6 | -8 | -12 | -21 | -9 | | | | 04-06 | -4 | 7 | -1 | 3 | -5 | -8 | | | | 06-09 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 26 | -5 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3236 | 3334 | 3343 | 3373 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - **Market Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Basis and Calendar Spread - The daily changes in Shandong basis (+80, non - Jingbo), East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse), and South China basis (Foshan warehouse) are all 30. The daily changes in 03 - 06, 04 - 06, and 06 - 09 are -9, -8, and -5 respectively [2][3]. 3.2 Futures Contract Data - The BU main contract price is 3343, with a daily change of -30. The trading volume is 271643, with a daily change of 37601 and a weekly change of -5. The open interest is 347769, with a daily change of -17689 and a weekly change of -4 [2][3]. 3.3 Spot Price - The prices of Jingbo, Shandong (non - Jingbo), Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse remain unchanged at 3200, 3200, 3330, and 3280 respectively [2][3]. 3.4 Profit - The asphalt - Marey profit is 250, with a daily change of -19 [2][3]. 3.5 Total Inventory - No specific data analysis is provided, but the total inventory (Longzhong) is mentioned in the report [7].