Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices experienced a slight rebound after a decline, with the average closing price in Jiangsu market at 7325 yuan/ton as of August 6, reflecting a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous week [1] Cost Analysis - The oil market has been under pressure with continuous negative news, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which fell by 8.67% as of August 6 compared to the previous Wednesday [1] - Pure benzene prices initially dropped but later increased, influenced by weak crude oil and futures market conditions, while a tightening supply in the north contributed to the price rise, with the average price in East China down by 20 yuan/ton as of August 6 [1] - The raw material sector lacks a unilateral driving force [1] Supply and Demand - Throughout the week, except for CNOOC Shell which faced production losses due to equipment issues, other facilities maintained stable production [1] - The main port in East China experienced reduced arrivals due to typhoon impacts, leading to a decrease in inventory, although market supply remains sufficient [1] - The output of the main downstream product, three S, is expected to see a slight increase, but the purchasing intentions at the beginning of the month remain low [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals continue to show weakness [1] Forecast - Styrene prices are expected to follow fluctuations in the bulk commodity market in the short term, with the raw material sector unlikely to show a clear direction [1] - The ongoing weak supply and demand fundamentals may be exacerbated by the commissioning of the Jingbo Sida Rui facility, which could further intensify supply-demand conflicts and pressure prices to remain weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a period of exuberance, with major declines observed in various commodities such as coking coal and lithium carbonate [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coking coal prices fell over 10%, while coking coal and lithium carbonate dropped by 7.44% and 7.98% respectively [2] - Other commodities like glass and soda ash also experienced declines exceeding 7% [2] - The Wind coal index dropped by 2.79%, with specific companies like Zhongshan Xifeng Coal and Zhengzhou Coal Power seeing declines of over 5% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent supply-side contraction expectations have led to significant price increases in coking coal (over 40%) and coking coal (over 20%) in the previous week [2] - Research indicates that most coal mines in Shanxi have not received formal notices regarding overproduction, and production has not yet been affected [3] - In regions like Shaanxi, some coal mines are still in self-inspection stages without halting production, while others in Henan, Shandong, and Anhui report low production capacity due to resource depletion [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The recent price increases in coking coal and coking coal have been driven by expectations of reduced production, with the price of metallurgical coke reaching 1430 yuan/ton [3] - Steel mills have reduced maintenance and increased production, which may lead to a rise in output in the coming week [4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented trading limits on coking coal futures to manage market volatility [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment for bulk commodities is strong, and methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The international methanol device operating rate has slightly increased, imports are gradually recovering, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories are accumulating. The domestic coal price continues to decline, the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to the highest level in history, and the domestic supply is loose. However, the recent strong rebound of domestic bulk commodities has improved the market atmosphere [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a bullish and fluctuating trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of July 24, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 48%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 4 million tons, with good demand and firm pit - mouth prices [4]. - **Supply side**: The price of raw material coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - **Import side**: The international methanol device operating rate continues to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, imports are back in a positive spread situation. Iranian devices are gradually increasing their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, the external market operating rate has reached a new high this year, the European and American markets continue to decline, the price difference between China and Europe has flattened, the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 600,000 tons in July, and continues to lower the price for tendering. Some Indian supplies are flowing to China, non - Iranian supplies are increasing, the arrival in Taicang is increasing, and inventory accumulation is accelerating [4]. - **Demand side**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - **Inventory**: The arrival of imports has increased, port inventories are accumulating, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 24, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 70.37%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week but an increase of 8.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 65.47%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From July 19 - 25, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output was 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of July 23, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 173,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 24, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 79.28%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 86.08%, with a slight decrease in the load of East China olefin enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, remaining the same as last week; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 92.69%, a slight increase; the formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 17.46% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 244,800 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.70% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total port inventory was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the north line was 440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong was 150 yuan/ton. The MTO loss was narrowing, and the basis was weakening [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang was 2480 (+110), and the price in the north line was 2040 (+70) [8].

Core Insights - Extreme weather events are increasingly impacting global commodity markets, with significant effects on supply and demand dynamics across various sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Commodity Markets - The extreme heat in the Northern Hemisphere has led to record high temperatures in regions such as Spain, France, and Italy, while the Southern Hemisphere is experiencing unprecedented cold [1] - Extreme weather is identified as a key factor affecting global economic stability, with events like heatwaves and droughts posing significant threats to agricultural supply chains [2][3] - High temperatures are causing electricity shortages in certain areas, which may disrupt industrial production continuity [2][3] Group 2: Price Movements and Market Reactions - The coal, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors in the A-share market have seen significant price increases, with indices rising by 7.22%, 10.75%, and 17.94% respectively since July [3] - In the futures market, coal and steel indices have surged by 38.47% and 2.56% respectively, reflecting strong demand driven by extreme weather conditions [3][4] - Agricultural markets are experiencing mixed effects, with high temperatures potentially leading to reduced yields for crops like corn and wheat, while also benefiting others like soybeans under certain conditions [3][4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risks associated with extreme weather, particularly in sectors highly sensitive to climatic changes [6][7] - The use of weather derivatives, such as temperature index futures, is recommended for hedging against potential declines in agricultural yields and price increases in commodities [8] - The development of weather-related financial instruments in China is progressing, with new temperature indices being introduced to help manage weather risks in agriculture and other sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking the first rate reduction since March 2020, which has led to a temporary pullback in the commodity market but subsequently strong growth, particularly in rubber futures [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The federal funds rate is now set in the range of 4.75% to 5.00, reflecting a significant monetary policy shift [1] - This rate cut has immediate implications for various markets, including commodities [1] Group 2: Rubber Futures Market - Rubber futures prices surged, with a closing price of 18,020 yuan/ton on September 19, reaching a seven-year high [1] - From July 31 to September 19, the main rubber futures contract saw a notable increase of 17.47% over 35 trading days [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent natural disasters, including typhoons, have heightened uncertainty in production areas, contributing to the rapid increase in rubber prices [1] - The growth in tire production and sales is identified as the primary driver of rubber demand, while demand from other sectors remains stable [1] - There has been a continuous decline in natural rubber inventory at ports and bonded zones this year, primarily due to reduced import volumes [1] Group 4: Future Price Influencing Factors - Key factors expected to influence rubber futures prices include the duration of adverse weather in major production areas, trends in domestic inventory, and the capacity of downstream tire companies to absorb rising rubber prices [1] - The overall fundamental landscape for natural rubber has not significantly changed, with expectations for a strong market performance in the short term [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent surge in commodity prices, particularly in polysilicon and coking coal futures, has been notable, while plastic futures have shown a more complex trend with fluctuations [2] - On July 23, the plastic futures 2509 contract opened at 7,370 yuan/ton but experienced a decline, reaching a low of 7,285 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 0.12% [2] - The price movements in plastic futures are primarily driven by policy expectations, with limited impact from supply-side reforms [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of plastic has increased significantly due to the commissioning of multiple production facilities in the first half of the year, with a substantial year-on-year growth [3] - The average operating rate for polyethylene (PE) in the first half of the year was 82.73%, reflecting a 1.67% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Despite high production levels, domestic demand remains under pressure, with stable but unremarkable growth in downstream orders [4] Group 3: Price Influences - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate around crude oil prices, as oil-based production accounts for approximately 65% of plastic production capacity [6] - The production of polyethylene has seen a significant increase, with total production reaching 1,535.18 million tons in the first half of the year, marking a 14% growth [6] - The cost of production is influenced by the prices of raw materials like oil and coal, which have shown recent volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see a gradual recovery in production as maintenance schedules conclude, with a potential increase in supply [10] - The market anticipates a demand peak in August, which could support plastic prices if downstream operating rates improve [9] - Overall, the plastic market is transitioning towards a peak season, with limited downside potential for polyethylene prices if costs do not significantly decline [9]

Oil and Gas - KazTransOil supplied 160,000 tons of crude oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in June [2] - Russian Urals crude oil prices are $2 per barrel below the $60 price cap set by Western countries due to weakening Brent crude prices [2] - IEA raised oil supply forecasts for this year and next, noting a decline in Iranian crude production and exports in June, while Saudi oil production surged above OPEC+ quotas [2] - EU representatives are nearing agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including a mechanism to lower the price cap on Russian oil [2] - Iraq set the official selling price for Basrah medium crude oil for August at a discount of $1.15 per barrel to Argus sour crude for North and South America, a premium of $1.35 per barrel to Oman/Dubai average for Asia, and a discount of $0.55 per barrel to Brent for Europe [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Spot silver surpassed $39, with a year-to-date increase of 35% [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts continued strong demand for gold from central banks, forecasting gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year [3] - ANZ forecasts gold prices to rise to $3,500 per ounce by the end of Q3 2025, while platinum prices may fall to $1,250 per ounce if they do not break through $1,400 per ounce [3] US Tariffs - Thailand's finance minister is considering zero tariffs on more US imports [4] - South Korean officials indicated a potential trade framework agreement with the US before August [4] - EU officials plan to deepen trade agreements with Asian countries in response to US tariffs [4] - Italy's foreign minister stated that the EU is prepared with a €21 billion tariff list on US goods if no agreement is reached with the US [4]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 56.24 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, of -13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, which is an increase of 131.15 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2][3] - The significant increase in profit is attributed to effective macro policies that have positively impacted the bulk commodity market, despite challenges in the black metal circulation sector due to weak demand and fluctuating steel prices [2] Group 2 - The company's previous year's total profit was 87.24 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -144.15 million yuan, and earnings per share of -0.01 yuan [2] - The company emphasizes a strategy focused on stability and progress, enhancing capability building and risk management while actively adjusting market strategies [2]

Oil Market - Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude oil grades for Asian buyers in August, with a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that OPEC+ will increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, maintaining the Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 and $56 per barrel for 2026 [2][4] Commodities and Trade - The European Union plans to establish an emergency reserve for critical minerals to address geopolitical risks [3] - Canada is "very likely" to build a new oil pipeline, according to Prime Minister Carney [4] - OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [4] - Companies such as Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government assistance to maintain Australian smelting plants [4] - Indonesia has committed to purchasing more U.S. wheat to reach a trade agreement [4] - Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister proposed near-zero tariffs on 20 major U.S. export goods during tariff negotiations [4] - Thailand's Finance Minister announced a new tariff proposal for zero tariffs on many imports from the U.S. [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Oslo next week [1] - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025 and $70 per barrel for 2026 [1] - The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on companies related to Iraq for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling, targeting the "shadow fleet" [1] Group 2 - Indonesia will sign a memorandum of understanding with U.S. partners before the tariff negotiation deadline [1] - The EIA reported a natural gas inventory change of 550 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 27, marking the smallest increase since April 11, 2025 [1] - BlackRock is considering selling its stake in Saudi Aramco's natural gas pipeline company [1] Group 3 - Non-farm employment in the U.S. oil and gas extraction industry decreased by approximately 500 jobs in June compared to the previous month, and by about 900 jobs year-over-year [1] - Russia is seeking to confiscate a top gold mining company from a billionaire [1] - Nornickel expects a global nickel surplus of 130,000 tons in 2026, up from a surplus of 120,000 tons in 2025 [1] Group 4 - India's mining minister stated the need to double aluminum and copper production by 2030 [1]