Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The external environment's uncertainty is increasing, and the continuation of loose monetary policy is expected, with the overall expected return rate for society trending downward in the medium to long term. The effectiveness of low-volatility dividend strategies is likely to persist. The public fund reform is expected to assist banks in achieving excess returns as the allocation style returns to normal [3][26] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressure on other non-interest income growth [3][26] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Two main investment lines are currently being focused on: 1. Preparing for the anticipated reduction in insurance preset rates in Q3 2025 by investing in high-dividend banks, with recommendations to pay attention to China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) [4][27] 2. Continuing to favor small and medium-sized banks that have performed strongly since the beginning of the year, with recommendations to focus on Industrial Bank (601166, not rated), CITIC Bank (601998, not rated), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) [4][27] Financial Data Insights - In June 2025, the social financing (社融) year-on-year growth was 8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and the monthly increment was 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 494.2 billion yuan [9][10] - The increase in loans was primarily driven by corporate short-term loans, with total loans growing by 7.1% year-on-year in June 2025, and the monthly increment was 2.24 trillion yuan, also surpassing expectations [15][20] - M1 growth accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in June 2025, with M2 growth at 8.3%, indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 growth rates [20][21] Structural Changes in Financing - The increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds and loans, with government bonds increasing by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year [11][10] - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 36.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a rise in bond financing [11][10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices mostly rose, with the three major indices showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, briefly falling below 3,500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose and then declined. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Sector performance varied, with the social services and automobile sectors leading the gains and the steel sector leading the losses. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Imports and exports improved against the backdrop of easing Sino - US trade relations. - In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating that residents' and enterprises' willingness to invest and consume may have improved with the support of loose monetary policies. - For individual stocks, the profit situation of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. - Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail has weakened. However, financial data shows that the effects of loose monetary policies have emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the release of mid - year report performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the market is optimistic about the first - half earnings of listed companies, and bulls may pre - arrange. The stock index has long - term upward potential, but weak economic data in June will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3,500 mark. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while the medium - to - long - term strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF (2509), IH (2509), and IF (2507), IH (2507) contracts decreased, while the prices of IC (2509), IM (2509), IC (2507), and IM (2507) contracts increased. For example, the IF (2509) contract was at 3,971.0, down 10.4; the IM (2509) contract was at 6,298.0, up 23.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1,264.4, down 5.0; the IM - IC monthly contract spread was 437.8, up 24.0 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1,790.0 to - 27,854.00, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH decreased by 207.0 to - 14,671.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also changed [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 36.2, up 2.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices changed. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,740.90, down 6.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6,462.06, up 19.2 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 146.1734 billion yuan, down 17.327 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 189.0406 billion yuan, up 5.016 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 201.657 billion yuan, up 10.454 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 60.49%, up 35.90 percentage points; the Shibor was 1.466%, down 0.069 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.3%. The trade surplus was 825.97 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade surplus was 4,212.51 billion yuan [2]. - **Social Financing**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 12% more than the same period last year. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [2]. - **GDP**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In Q1, GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and in Q2, it increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [2][3]. - **Consumption and Industry**: In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 2,454.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased by 6.4% year - on - year [3]. - **Investment**: In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting the impact of price factors, it increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [3]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June, national real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 502.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The national real estate climate index was 93.60 [3][4]. - **Monetary Data**: At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded. Most industry sectors fell, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors leading the decline. [3] - Domestically, the Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% met market expectations, but the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, the real estate market continued to decline, and imports and exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, and the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness. [3] - The profit situation of listed companies that have released semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in policies for social retail has weakened. However, loose monetary policies have shown effects, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. [3] - With the release of mid - year performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the stock index has long - term upward potential, but the poor June economic data will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3500 mark. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips with a light position in the long term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts generally declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 3980.6, down 9.6; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2734.2, down 17.6. [2] - The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1269.4, up 12.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread was 413.8, down 20.0. [2] - The differences between the current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts of each index futures also declined. For example, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 29.0, down 5.8. [2] 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,757.00, down 1858.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 10,097.00, up 393.0. [2] 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 1.4 to 4019.06, while the SSE 50 fell 10.6 to 2747.23. [2] - The basis of each index futures contract decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.5, down 6.6. [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume increased to 16,350.05 billion yuan, up 1540.82 billion yuan; the margin trading balance increased to 18,853.90 billion yuan, up 95.95 billion yuan. [2] - Northbound trading volume decreased to 1912.03 billion yuan, down 543.01 billion yuan; the reverse repurchase operation volume increased by 3425.0 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 24.59%, down 34.10 percentage points; the Shibor increased to 1.535%, up 0.120 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 2.3% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased 2.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. [2] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [2] - In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. Q1 GDP increased 5.4% year - on - year, Q2 increased 5.2% year - on - year, and Q2 increased 1.1% quarter - on - quarter. [2] - In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 42287 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 245458 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. [2] - In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased 6.4% year - on - year. [2] - In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248654 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting price factors, it increased 5.3% year - on - year, and in June, it decreased 0.12% month - on - month. [2] - From January to June, national real estate development investment was 46658 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. New commercial housing sales area was 45851 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new commercial housing sales were 44241 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%. [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in financing conditions and a stable, accommodative monetary environment as of June 2025 [2][3] - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly higher than May's 0.62 trillion yuan, while new social financing reached 4.20 trillion yuan compared to 2.29 trillion yuan in May [3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9% in June, slightly up from 8.7% in May, and M2 growth was 8.3%, up from 7.9% in the previous month [3] Group 2 - Government bonds continued to support the growth rate of social financing in June, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.41 trillion yuan, although slightly down from 1.49 trillion yuan in May [3][5] - The demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, indicating that the effects of a loose monetary policy may take time to materialize [3] - The report notes that while corporate short-term loans showed seasonal improvement, medium to long-term loans remained low, suggesting weak investment intentions among enterprises [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the growth rates of M1 and M2 have both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, which may reflect a marginal improvement in economic activity [3][34] - The adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, with expectations that the adjustment period will be limited in time and space [3] - The report anticipates that the probability of continued tight funding conditions in July is low, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.07% to 771.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 1.45% to 9014.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.27% to 3334.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.27% to 37.78 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.35%, and the US dollar index was at 97.55 [2] - The Au(T+D) closed at 769.22 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The Ag(T+D) closed at 8899.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55%. London gold closed at 3312.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.38%, and London silver closed at 36.81 dollars/ounce, up 0.60%. The SPDR gold ETF holdings were at 948.80 tons, up 0.15%, and the SLV silver ETF holdings were at 14889.93 tons, down 0.51% [4] Group 2: Fed Officials' Statements and Policy Expectations - Multiple Fed officials expressed different views on the monetary policy path. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem's speech was hawkish, while San Francisco Fed President Daly thought there might be two rate cuts this year in the fall. Potential next Fed Chair candidate Waller was dovish, suggesting a rate cut in the July meeting. President Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates quickly [2][3] - Given the US fiscal expansion and high interest - payments, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in the July meeting with a more dovish tone and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Price Ranges - In the context of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver. Gold may perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US loose - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 8805 - 9600 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Gold and Silver Data Details - For gold on July 10, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price was 3333.00 dollars/ounce (up 0.32%), volume was 14.84 million lots (down 4.77%), open interest was 43.77 million lots (up 0.62%), and inventory was 1144 tons (down 0.26%). SHFE gold's closing price was 773.30 yuan/gram (up 0.85%), volume was 26.56 million lots (down 39.51%), and open interest was 39.56 million lots (down 0.23%) [6] - For silver on July 10, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price was 37.63 dollars/ounce (up 2.79%), open interest was 16.36 million lots (down 6.33%), and inventory was 15413 tons (down 0.35%). SHFE silver's closing price was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram (up 0.22%), volume was 69.73 million lots (down 24.31%), and open interest was 87.47 million lots (down 0.73%) [6] Group 5: Price and Spread Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was 31.1035 yuan/gram (1.34 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 0.19 yuan/gram (- 0.80 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 228.70 yuan/kilogram (0.99 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver spread was 361.25 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce) [47]

Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250629 周观：从货政委员会例会看债市破局时间 点（2025 年第 25 期） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 央行货政委员会 2025 年第二季度例会透露了怎样的信息？ ◼ A：本周（2025.6.23-2025.6.27），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.638%上行 0.8bp 至 1.646%。 周度复盘：周一（6.23），早盘新闻显示美国介入伊以冲突，受避险情绪 推动，10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行。随后央行净回笼资金，叠加股市 上涨令债市情绪走弱，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 0.2bp。周二 （6.24），早盘有伊以停火，股市强势上涨，债市随之微跌。同时资金面 开始受到跨月影响，虽然央行盘后公告第二日将进行 3000 亿元的 MLF 续作，但 DR007 上行至 1.6684%，债市情绪受到压制，全天 10 年期国 债活跃券收益率上行 0.6bp。周三（6.25），受财政部《国务院关于 2024 年中央决算的报告》中表示将根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策和发 改委即将召开新闻发布会的影响，上午 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and monetary policy in China, particularly regarding the central bank's actions and their implications for interest rates and economic support. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repo operations are stabilizing market expectations, with a potential for further rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth [1][3][8] - A 10 basis point rate cut has already occurred in Q2, with expectations for additional cuts in Q3 [1][3][8] 2. **Market Expectations and Bond Purchases** - Large purchases of short-term bonds by major banks may indicate the central bank's intention to restart bond-buying operations, which could lead to lower interest rates [1][3][9] - The short-term government bond yield is expected to trend towards 1.1%, while the 10-year bond yield may break below 1.6% and approach 1.5% [1][6][9] 3. **Factors Influencing Interest Rate Movements** - A significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit and fluctuations in the funding environment may temporarily restrict interest rate declines [1][7] - Positive outcomes from US-China negotiations could slightly increase market risk appetite, potentially affecting rates by 2-3 basis points [1][4][5][7] 4. **Investment Strategies** - A bullish approach is recommended for the next two to three months, focusing on 3 to 5-year bullet bonds if the central bank resumes bond purchases [1][9][11] - In the absence of such expectations, a strategy favoring ticket interest or yield spread compression is advised [1][9][11] 5. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds are viewed as having high certainty in the current market environment, with recommendations to focus on 8-year medium-term notes and 6 to 10-year subordinated capital bonds [1][15] 6. **Local vs. National Bonds** - The spread between local and national bonds is expected to remain stable, with local bond issuance anticipated to increase in Q3 [1][16][17] 7. **Liquidity and Trading Strategies** - Active bonds are reasonably priced and maintain good liquidity, making them suitable for trading [1][21] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in liquidity premiums and bond pricing dynamics [1][21] 8. **Floating vs. Fixed Rate Bonds** - Floating rate bonds are currently reasonably priced, but may not outperform fixed-rate bonds if short-term rates decline [1][24] 9. **Government Bond Futures** - Current pricing of government bond futures is considered high, but they still hold hedging value. Strategies may include shorting corresponding futures to capture yield [1][25] Other Important Considerations - The overall economic outlook remains dependent on continued monetary support, with expectations for the central bank to take action to stabilize market conditions amid significant government bond supply pressures [1][8] - The anticipated bond market dynamics suggest a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investment, with a focus on liquidity and yield optimization [1][9][15]

新华财经上海6月16日电（记者杨溢仁）在基本面、资金面利好支撑的背景下，债市投资者从"看多"转 向"做多"。分析人士指出，当前各机构择券主要锚定"资金面"，考虑到货币宽松有望进一步延续，则眼 下"止盈未至"，仍可积极布局。 债市依旧"顺风" 根据券商调研，当前的债市情绪已接近年内最乐观值。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月16日收盘，银行间10年期国债收益率已从4月 1日的1.81%回落至1.64%附近。 "就机构行为来看，临近半年末，公募基金'冲'收益诉求增强，中长期债基久期回升。聚焦交易层面， 前述情况更为突出，基金主力买入10年、30年期利率债券，同时加大了中期票据的买入力度，说明基金 在增配中短期信用债拿票息的同时，也在拉长久期博取资本利得。"一位机构交易员告诉记者，"不仅如 此，现阶段债市整体的杠杆率也在回升，并已超过去年水平。" 记者注意到，一季度债市资金面整体均衡偏紧，DR007运行在政策利率上方，对应债市杠杆率持续处于 低位，远低于季节性水平。而反观当前，在央行提前公布买断式逆回购操作（精准对冲流动性压力）， 且大型商业银行密集购买短债的背景下，6月虽面临跨季但资金面并不紧 ...