交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-23燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：来自西方的套利船货到港量小幅增加，但中硫调和组分的持续短缺导致新加坡合规含硫0.5% 船用燃料供应紧张，低硫燃料油市场基本面仍有支撑。高硫燃料油下游船燃需求维持坚挺，同时受到夏季 发电旺季的支撑。随着伊以冲突愈演愈烈，航运市场不安情绪日益加剧，目前已经有不少船只选择避开霍 尔木兹海峡，绕行船舶增加补油需求，短期内可能利好新加坡船用燃料销量；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为485.24美元/吨，基差为211元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为559.5美元/吨，基 差为142元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-20燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：来自西方的套利船货到港量小幅增加，但中硫调和组分的持续短缺导致新加坡合规含硫0.5% 船用燃料供应紧张，低硫燃料油市场基本面仍有支撑。高硫燃料油下游船燃需求维持坚挺，同时受到夏季 发电旺季的支撑。随着伊以冲突愈演愈烈，航运市场不安情绪日益加剧，目前已经有不少船只选择避开霍 尔木兹海峡，绕行船舶增加补油需求，短期内可能利好新加坡船用燃料销量；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为486.69美元/吨，基差为219元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为556.5美元/吨，基 差为92元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库 ...

燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场因含硫0.5%船用燃料油供应紧张而持续获得支撑。贸易商消息 称，西方至新加坡套的利窗口关闭将持续限制7月上半月的船货到货量；亚洲高硫燃料油市场受 到中东地区夏季公用事业的季节性需求旺季的支撑。不过，目前供应商充足的库存导致下游船燃 需求疲软，短期内可能压制市场基本面；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为474.18美元/吨，基差为219元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为543.5美元 /吨，基差为120元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月11日当周库存为2311.9万桶，增加171万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：隔夜中东地缘风险先退后升，美国可能介入伊以冲突中，提升市场风险担忧情绪，燃 油预计呈现偏强运行。FU2509：3250-3350区间偏强运行，LU2508：3800-3900区间偏强运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-17燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,680 | 920 | 600 | 760 | -1,340 | -14,060 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 236,197 | 31,417 | -177,042 | -156,272 | -53,205 | 229,418 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 178,235 | -16,496 | -67,415 | -115,460 | -112,068 | 143,911 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收 ...

曹剑兰 Z0019556 | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月10日 | 666B | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 771.0 | 772.0 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2509 | 785.5 | 786.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 790.5 | 790.5 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -14.5 | 0.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.0 | -4.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -19.5 | -18.5 | -1.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -21.0 | -22.0 | 1.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -35.5 | -36.5 | 1.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -40.5 | 0.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720.0 | 0 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面预期不佳，煤焦维持偏弱震荡 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 22 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1406.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.85%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.47 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +1271 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1390 元/吨， 周环比下跌 3.47%，折合期货仓单成本约 1530 元/吨。近期，钢厂铁水产 量见顶预期渐浓，下游维持压价采购思路，而焦化厂向上游煤矿传导价格 压力。随着原材料焦煤价格持 ...

美豆及连粕反弹仍可能持续，等待阿根廷产量损失明朗 相关链接 金十期货特约新湖期货点评：市场重新回归基本面，美豆与连粕再度展开联动，阿根廷天气成为当前的 扰动项。当前美豆及连粕反弹仍可能持续，等待阿根廷产量损失明朗，随后美豆及连粕回落，产量损失 明朗的时间不确定，可能是一周，也可能是更长时间，准确损失得等待水退之后统计。接下来可能衔接 上一波美国天气题材，国外气候模型显示美国将面临炎热夏季。豆粕当前交易机会，逢低做多，注意节 奏。 ...

行业 纸浆日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net revenues for Q1 2025 totaled $627 million, an 8% increase year over year but a 15% decrease compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to lower smelting sales volumes and decreased zinc and lead prices [21][22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 reached $125 million, representing a 3% decrease year over year and a 36% decrease compared to Q4 2024, driven by lower sales volumes and higher costs [22][23] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 20%, down 2 percentage points from the same period last year [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Zinc production in Q1 2025 was 67,000 tons, down 23% year over year and 8% quarter over quarter, impacted by operational challenges and heavy rainfall [10] - Smelting segment sales reached 130,000 tons, a decrease of 6% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter, primarily due to lower production at certain facilities [11][12] - Cash costs for mining dropped to $0.11 per pound from $0.26 per pound year over year, while smelting cash costs increased to $1.17 per pound from $0.98 per pound in the same period last year [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average LME zinc price in Q1 2025 was $2,838 per ton, reflecting a 16% increase year over year but a 7% decrease quarter over quarter [30] - The average LME copper price was $9,340 per ton, up 11% year over year and 2% quarter over quarter [32] - The average LME silver price was $32 per ounce, up 37% year over year and 2% quarter over quarter [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving margins through disciplined operational performance and cost control, while navigating a challenging macro environment [7] - The Cerro Del Pasco integration project is progressing well, aimed at extending operational capacity and sustainability [17][18] - The company is committed to enhancing the life of its assets, particularly through exploration and development activities at Aripuana and Cerro Lindo [35][36] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current macro environment's volatility, including concerns over global economic slowdown and supply chain disruptions, but remains optimistic about medium to long-term fundamentals for key metals [6][7] - The company expects to normalize production variations over the coming quarters and is taking measures to recover production levels impacted by heavy rainfall [48] - Management emphasized a disciplined approach to financial and operational strategies, prioritizing cash generation and smart capital allocation [37][38] Other Important Information - The company invested $50 million in CapEx during Q1 2025, primarily for sustaining activities, with a total CapEx guidance for 2025 remaining at $347 million [24] - The liquidity position at the end of Q1 2025 was approximately $721 million, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio increasing to 2.1 times [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on geotechnical issues at Vasante and production levels at Cerro Lindo? - Management explained that geotechnical issues at Vasante were due to a collapse in a supporting pillar, affecting high-grade mineral extraction, but they expect to recover production throughout the year [44][45] - Heavy rainfall impacted production at Cerro Lindo, but management projected recovery in production levels as weather conditions improve [46] Question: What are your views on the impact of recent trends on TCRCs? - Management noted that while they have fixed contracts for the year, the recent TCRCs at $80 could impact smelter profitability, but they expect zinc prices to rise in response to market conditions [50][55] Question: How do you see leverage evolving in the next quarters? - Management indicated that they expect leverage to decrease throughout the year, aiming to return to levels similar to the end of 2024 [59] Question: Will you fully reverse the negative working capital by the end of the year? - Management stated that they typically expect working capital to be flat annually and highlighted a one-off tax payment that impacted Q1 working capital [64][66] Question: How is the company managing tariff risks? - Management confirmed that they are not currently exposed to tariffs on zinc and are monitoring the situation closely, emphasizing that demand for zinc in the U.S. remains stable [76][78]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年4月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 ◆ 风险提示：节假日、原油价格反弹、PDH装置检修等 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：暂时震荡 ◆ 我们的逻辑：4月18日-4月24日，LPG市场逐渐回归基本面，伴随关税调整影响持续。截至4月24日，FEI丙烷掉期连一 较上期上涨3.4%至524.86美元/吨；美湾MB现货受日韩需求增长影响，同步涨至456.5美元/吨；华南丙烷冷冻 ...