智通财经APP获悉，沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球资产遭遇剧烈波动。港股三大指数全天 下行，恒指失守两万七大关，恒科指数午后一度跌超4%。截至收盘，恒生指数跌2.23%或611.54点，报 26775.57点，全日成交额为3478.86亿港元；恒生国企指数跌2.54%，报9080.19点；恒生科技指数跌 3.36%，报5526.31点。 华泰证券表示，当前市场回调更多是上涨过快的背景下，偏鹰派美联储主席提名导致的技术性回撤。该 行认为，经历了如此调整后，当前的核心问题是波动的持续性和会不会终结市场表现。当前情绪已在乐 观区间，且拥挤度尚未明显回落，波动短期或持续，但更多是回撤而不是反转。一季度市场空间的三个 驱动因素——流动性改善、资金面共振与盈利预期上修仍然成立。 蓝筹股表现 金沙中国(01928)逆市上扬。截至收盘，涨4.05%，报17.72港元，成交额7.76亿港元，贡献恒指2.66点。 澳门博彩监察协调局公布数据显示，1月博彩毛收入226.33亿澳门元，同比增长24%，较前一个月升 8.4%。摩根士丹利研报指出，澳门今年一月博彩总收入优于市场预期。又因农历新年8日假期全落在二 月，预计该月应能 ...

今日早间，现货黄金、白银价格再度跳水，现货白银盘初一度大跌超7%，现货黄金一度大跌近4%。 有分析指出，这场始于美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席的抛售潮，不仅重创加密货币，也逆转了黄金白银的涨势，市场对美元贬值的押注 正在瓦解。 高盛交易部门负责人Mark Wilson表示，尽管市场近期出现剧烈波动，但投资者不应过度解读这场"持仓清洗"，因为年初至今推动市场的核心驱动因素并 未发生实质性改变。尽管黄金价格近期呈现出"泡沫化"特征，甚至在上周五经历了大幅回调，这并未改变大局。目前，黄金的价格水平暗示美国实际利率 为负，这与市场普遍预期的流动性过剩、美元贬值以及美国经济在选举前繁荣的基本情境相吻合。 尽管价格大跌，但金银的需求仍在。周末有投资者趁回调买入实物黄金，有分析称，"弱美元"的宏大叙事也还在继续，金价银价仍有支撑。在巨震之后， 金银价格短期波动仍可能十分剧烈，风险也更大。金银虽贵，但对个体来说，清醒的头脑更贵，要警惕金市银市那些暴富故事，在自己配置金银时多一些 淡定和理性，才能真正实现资产的保值增值。 转自：中国经济网 来源：央广网 前一交易日，贵金属市场遭遇史诗级暴跌，Wind数据显示，截至上 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Walsh trade" on market risk appetite, indicating a potential shift in global asset allocation and market style due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has already affected market risk preferences [9][11]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59% this week, with notable sector rotations observed, where previously high-performing sectors like military and power equipment corrected, while previously lagging sectors such as oil and gas, real estate, food and beverage, and communications rebounded [5][8]. - Key performing sectors this week included space photovoltaic (Liancheng Numerical Control +21.73%), seed industry (Qiule Seed +22.55%, Kangnong Seed +13.5%), and optical communication (Hengdong Light +14.83%, Gebijia +19.72%) [5][8]. Group 2 - The report notes an acceleration in new stock issuances, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and a total of 123 companies having released performance forecasts by January 30, 2026, indicating a need for expansion in the North Exchange due to its limited number of companies and small market capitalization [10][24]. - The median net profit forecast for companies in the North Exchange is over 80 million yuan, with several companies, including Fujida and Jilin Carbon Valley, expected to see over 30% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and optical communication, while monitoring the effects of the "Walsh trade" on interest rates and small-cap stocks [11][24]. Group 3 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 5.961 billion shares this week, reflecting a 9.27% increase, while the trading value was 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week [14][23]. - The report indicates that 43 stocks rose while 249 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17, with notable gainers including Keli Co. and Qiule Seed [33][34]. - The report also details the performance of newly listed stocks, with Nongda Technology and Meidele experiencing significant first-day gains of 111.56% and 161.46%, respectively [24][27]. Group 4 - The report outlines the new three-board situation, with 14 new companies listed and 6 delisted, alongside a planned financing of 150 million yuan, which was completed at 161 million yuan [46][47]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of the North Exchange's stock performance and the implications of new listings on market dynamics [10][24].

2026 年 02 月 01 日 旧制度的复兴 ——"沃什时代"的美联储 北京时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场 热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和 华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025 年 8 月-2026 年 1 月底，最可能的"影子主席"在五 位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017 年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017 年 11 月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观 此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过 80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11 月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立 性"的担忧；2）1 月末里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of a new Federal Reserve candidate by the Trump administration is perceived as a positive development for the market, despite ongoing uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implications - The current economic strategy is characterized as "stealth easing," where the government appears to maintain a tight monetary policy while subtly providing liquidity to the market [1][5]. - A proposed tax increase on high-income individuals is seen as a more effective approach to reducing fiscal deficits compared to previous tax hikes, potentially facing less resistance [1][5]. - The anticipated economic logic includes continued interest rate cuts to ease government debt pressures, a halt to indiscriminate quantitative easing to control inflation, and a focus on fiscal expansion benefiting the AI and technology sectors [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The discussion around the U.S. dollar's weakness highlights a 10% decline in the dollar index over the past year, with significant money printing expected to continue [6]. - The perception that the stock market is performing well is challenged; when measured in gold rather than dollars, the U.S. stock market has experienced a substantial decline over the past seven years [6]. - The disparity in wealth accumulation due to aggressive monetary policies is noted, with asset holders benefiting while those without assets face ongoing financial strain [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-30 弱美元+地缘风险升温，铂钯震荡偏强 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉26⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价714.1 元/克，涨幅1.94%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为526.6元/克，涨幅 2.95%。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 铂观点：地缘风险升温叠加美元走弱，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据新华社1月29日消息，美国总统特朗普"正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击"，中东局势紧张加剧。此外日元走强对美元汇率构成下行 压力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势，可关注择 机低吸做多机会。然而新任美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同 样是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性仍存，需警惕价格波动加大 风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+ ...

美元持续走弱，或许正在成为美国总统特朗普以及美联储未来政策的一大潜在难题，尽管特朗普日前对 记者表示，美元"表现很好"。 数据显示，按六种主要货币构成的美元指数衡量，美元本月已下跌2.1%，而去年全年跌幅超过9%。若 美元进一步贬值，可能会推高美国未来的通胀风险，这不仅将冲击共和党的经济议程，也将成为下一任 美联储主席必须面对的棘手局面。特朗普周四表示，他将于下周公布美联储主席提名人选。 然而，美元贬值的风险在于，美国可能因此"进口通胀"。随着美元购买力下降，美国从海外采购的商 品，从电子产品到汽车，都会变得更加昂贵。数据显示，美国去年11月进口商品总额高达3489亿美元， 比出口商品价值高出568亿美元。即便关税政策可能刺激部分商品回流本土生产，但市场普遍认为，美 国进口规模仍将长期维持在极高水平。 智通财经APP获悉，Ned Davis Research首席宏观策略师Joe Kalish警告称，特朗普对美元价值的轻视可 能"反噬"其经济议程，甚至导致共和党在国会众议院失去多数席位。他指出，生活成本与可负担性问题 正是共和党的政治软肋，最新民调显示，随着11月中期选举临近，选民对共和党的评价已趋于不利，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]

伊朗官员称已对霍尔木兹海峡进行实时监控。沙特表示不许其领空领土被用于打击伊朗。尽管全球股市连续五个交易日上涨并创下新高，但经济数据疲软、 政策不确定性以及持续的地缘政治风险，仍促使避险资金持续流入黄金市场。市场普遍预期美联储本次会议将维持利率不变，但后续政策路径的不确定性继 续为贵金属提供支撑。 然而，许多此前主张降息的官员现在似乎对暂停加息感到满意。克里斯托弗·沃勒州长是2025年6月首位公开倾向于降息的人，他表示在通胀仍处于高位的情 况下，他"不急于"采取行动。此次会议还标志着联邦公开市场委员会投票成员的轮换，包括：特朗普总统对鲍威尔的持续施压，引发了投资者对美联储独立 性的严重担忧。 此外，美国总统特朗普周一宣布计划对韩国进口商品征收新的关税，而美国政府在1月30日拨款截止日期前面临部分停摆的风险，令市场担忧加剧。 地缘局势方面，美国总统特朗普周二表示，希望伊朗达成协议，一支舰队目前正驶向伊朗，目前正拭目以待。美方表示，相关准备工作预计将在两周内完 成，并可能在未来数月内出现适合采取行动的"机会窗口"。 周三（1月28日）亚市早盘，金价早盘连续大涨走高，关注凌晨后美联储利率决议。周三国际金价延续涨势，现 ...

隔夜美元指数大跌，人民币对美元即期汇率1月28日升破6.95。 人民币对美元即期汇率1月28日开盘即升破6.05关口，截至发稿，盘中最高升至6.9449，较前一交易日升 值123点，创下2023年5月15日以来的新高。 当地时间1月27日，当被问及是否希望看到美元进一步贬值时，美国总统特朗普表示对美元下跌不感到 担心。在特朗普发表上述言论后，美元指数下跌逾1%，创下2022年2月以来的最低水平。非美货币迎来 大涨，离岸人民币对美元汇率1月27日一度升至6.9312。 1月28日，美元指数从低位反弹，截至发稿，美元指数日内上涨0.36%。 今年以来，人民币对美元即期汇率累计升值超0.6%。美元指数则下跌超过2%。 银河证券在研报中指出，2025年11月底以来人民币汇率加速升值主要受到两个因素的推动：其一，市场 进入"弱美元"交易，非美货币普遍呈现升值；其二，从内部来看，年末人民币结汇需求通常季节性走 强，叠加较强的升值预期，2025年年末的结汇需求显著强于季节性，2025年12月银行代客结售汇顺差达 999亿美元创历史新高，外汇供求关系有利于人民币走强。但是观察到央行已释放逆周期调节的政策信 号，人民币汇率将呈 ...