Monetary Policy - On December 31, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion CNY at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 502.8 billion CNY after accounting for 26 billion CNY maturing reverse repos [1] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.22% [2] - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil and petrochemicals underperformed [2] Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise on December 31, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks. Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Zijin Mining also experiencing gains [3][6] Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper's stock reached a peak of 55.28 CNY, with a trading volume of 584,500 hands and a market capitalization of 191.32 billion CNY [4] - Jiamai Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 CNY per share [7][10] - The stock of Hengtong Light surged by 1007.95% upon its debut on the Beijing Stock Exchange, opening at 350 CNY per share [11][13] Company Announcements - Jiamai Packaging announced that its main business had not undergone significant changes, and there are no plans for major asset restructuring in the near future [10] - Hengtong Light, established in 2011, focuses on passive optical device products and has a client base that includes major companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [11][14]

Market Overview - On December 31, the A-share market opened slightly higher, with the three major indices turning positive: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.1%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.13%, and ChiNext Index up 0.22% [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan for the day [2]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil & petrochemicals underperformed [6][10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rise, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks [8][9]. Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy, Guocheng Mining, Jingyi Co., and Zijin Mining also seeing gains [9]. - Jia Mei Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 yuan per share [11][12]. - On December 31, the newly listed stock Hengdongguang opened at 350 yuan per share, soaring by 1007.95% and reaching a peak increase of 1128.24% [15][16]. Company Specifics - Hengdongguang, established in 2011, focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field. Its products are widely used in data centers and telecom networks, with clients including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [18]. - The company issued 10.25 million shares at a price of 31.59 yuan per share, aiming to raise approximately 32.38 million yuan, with a net amount expected to be around 27.78 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 节前资金谨慎，基本金属宽幅震荡 有⾊观点：节前资⾦谨慎，基本⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月汽车销售 延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金 属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，节前资金谨慎，基 本金属冲高回落，但弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，可待铜铝锡止 跌后继续关注低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并 且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，盘⾯⾼位 ...

华西证券指出，短期贵金属高波动或将持续。其中白银、铂金及钯金受限于流动性与市场容量，面临的 调整幅度可能较大，而黄金与有色金属虽受情绪共振波及，但预计跌幅相对可控，并有望率先企稳。鉴 于此，短期策略以防御为宜，待短期情绪宣泄完毕、市场企稳。中长期来看，美联储宽松周期开启叠 加"弱美元"格局的宏观逻辑未变，贵金属长牛基础依然稳固，若本轮出现深度调整（比如黄金调整幅度 达到10%以上），将成为极佳的逢低配置窗口。 ...

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

编者按：市场从来不会"按剧本"行事，不确定性是投资中永恒的主题。巴菲特曾说："用冷静对抗市场 的狂欢。"在金属市场大涨时，投资者需以纪律性和长期视角应对市场的不确定性。期货日报推出的"破 译金属新主线"栏目，将全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 临近年末，贵金属、有色金属板块掀起涨价狂潮，铜、黄金、白银等价格接连刷新历史纪录，多晶硅、 钯、铂等新能源金属期货品种价格亦出现上涨。 笔者认为，上述期货品种年末大幅上涨的原因是弱美元预期叠加需求改善预期。 弱美元预期方面，美联储于2025年12月再次降息25个基点，并停止缩表，转而启动400亿美元的短期国 债购买计划。从缩表转向扩表，美联储的货币政策发生了根本性改变。这意味着美元将进入弱势周期， 过剩的美元有望激发溢出效应，流入新兴经济体和大宗商品市场。贵金属、有色金属板块普涨，以及国 内市场和国际市场表现同步，背后都是"弱美元"预期的驱动。 需求改善预期方面，美元走弱对应的是金价上涨，各国央行和华尔街投资人成为黄金的重要买家，进而 带动金价持续上涨。 综上所述，从需求分析，上述品种大涨的原因可归纳为三点：一是全球人工智能的发展带来了庞大的有 色金属需求，人工智能 ...

驱动逻辑三条线：第一，避险线：地缘紧张持续，资金涌入贵金属"避风港"。第二，货币线：美元走 弱，直接为以美元计价的白银"松绑"。第三，产业线（白银独特逻辑）：光伏、新能源等工业需求，给 予白银比黄金更强的弹性想象。 那么，灵魂拷问来了：它能否站稳73美元？ 朋友们，注意！现货白银今早开盘上演"暴力拉升"，跳空高开，一举突破73美元/盎司，刷新历史新 高！这不仅是贵金属的狂欢，更是全球资本情绪的一次集中宣泄。 我的观点是：短期看，情绪推动的急涨后，随时可能出现技术性回调，73美元关口会反复争夺。但中长 期看，只要上述三大逻辑（避险、弱美元、工业需求）不逆转，趋势依然向上。普通投资者切忌在此时 盲目追高。 具体到操作，给你的"三线配置策略"请收好： 1. 对于激进投资者（短线）：白银波动剧烈，绝非稳健标的。只建议用小仓位，在明确回调至关键支撑 位（如70-71美元区域）且企稳后，博取波段机会，务必设好止损。 2. 对于普通投资者（中长线）：与其直接炒高波动的白银期货，不如通过定投白银ETF或挂钩基金，平 滑成本，分享长期趋势。记住：只在回调时分批布局，而非大涨时买入。 3. 对于A股投资者（间接配置）：可关注两条 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-25 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月汽车销售 延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金 属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，弱美元和供应忧虑 的影响再度占据主导，连现实供需偏弱但供应有收缩预期的镍也被大幅推 高，弱消费及供需偏松的现实影响成为次要因素，可继续关注铜铝锡偏多 机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题 仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 铜观点：美元指数⾛弱，铜价偏强运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-24 弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行 有⾊观点：弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本⾦属突破上⾏ 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月初汽车销 售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本 金属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，弱美元和供应忧 虑的影响再度占据主导，连现实供需偏弱但供应有收缩预期的镍也被大幅 推高，弱消费及供需偏松的现实影响成为次要因素，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行，可继续关注铜铝锡偏多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策 预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝 锡价格走势。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB closed at 7.033, with expectations of rising below 7.0 in the coming week, potentially marking the highest exchange rate since October 2024 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is a result of multiple economic factors, reflecting China's strategic elevation in the global economic landscape and the dynamic adjustments in the global monetary system [3] - The current macroeconomic environment presents a strategic window for RMB appreciation, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which has seen the federal funds rate drop from 5.5% to 3.75% [3] Group 2 - The RMB's appreciation has significant strategic value for the Chinese economy, particularly in addressing the challenge of weak domestic demand [5] - Despite external pressures like increased tariffs from the U.S., China's foreign trade remains resilient, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025 [6] - The RMB's appreciation enhances purchasing power, benefiting imports and allowing consumers to access a wider range of imported goods at lower costs, thus stimulating consumption [8] Group 3 - RMB-denominated assets become more attractive to foreign investors due to valuation advantages, leading to increased capital inflows into the stock, real estate, and bond markets [9] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to create significant value reassessment effects in asset markets [10] - While there are concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports, Chinese exporters have demonstrated resilience, achieving year-on-year export growth despite tariff pressures [12] Group 4 - The export structure is undergoing a strategic upgrade, with high-value products like machinery, ships, and new energy vehicles becoming the main export drivers, capable of absorbing cost pressures from RMB appreciation [12] - Traditional labor-intensive products may face challenges, but these pressures can catalyze industry transformation towards high-tech and high-value sectors [14] - Overall, the RMB's appreciation aligns with the internal needs of China's economic transformation, enhancing import capacity, expanding consumption, optimizing asset allocation, and promoting industrial upgrades [14]