1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜窄幅震荡美联储主席鲍威尔表示，需要在未来的利率决策中平衡通胀担忧与 趋弱的就业市场，美元指数上涨，施压铜价，但日内 A 股大幅上涨，令资金风偏 上升。铜现货价涨 35 至 80045，现货升水持平 55，临近假期下游备货情绪较弱， 升水承压，盘面结构也持续在平水附近，短期高铜价抑制下游节前备货情绪，不 过美联储降息周期下弱美元难改，以及中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial conference primarily focused on summarizing the achievements of financial regulation over the past five years, with no short-term policy adjustments discussed [2][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with a shift from addressing external conflicts to balancing internal demand, emphasizing a low-interest financing environment and avoiding structural asset overheating [6][7]. - The number of local government financing platforms has decreased by over 60%, and their debt scale has dropped by more than 50% over the past five years, marking significant progress in managing hidden local debts [8][9]. Stock Market Insights - The conference highlighted a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "fast bull," with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9% over the past five years [10][11]. - The technology sector's market capitalization now exceeds 25% of the A-share market, with the number of top 50 listed companies in the tech sector increasing from 18 to 24 over the last five years [12]. - The capital market is encouraged to serve the real economy, promote industrial integration, and enhance resource allocation efficiency, with significant reforms in the stock market observed in the past year [13][14]. Market Trends - Recent market movements show a surge in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and rising prices in memory chips due to AI demand [17][19]. - Agricultural Bank of China continues to experience significant declines, with its price-to-book ratio at 0.85, indicating ongoing valuation discrepancies compared to other major banks [21][22][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar rebounded and demand was weak, causing the non - ferrous metals to give back recent gains. In the medium and short term, the weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. It is expected that basic metals will generally maintain a pattern of oscillating upward. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices had a phased decline. In the medium term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian mine suspended operations. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot premium of electrolytic copper rebounded, and copper inventories increased. The "770 - Document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the market's optimistic sentiment declined after the interest rate cut. On the supply side, mine supply disruptions increased, and recycled copper production cuts were expected. On the demand side, the peak season had arrived, but inventory reduction was not obvious. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to show an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are oscillating weakly. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices declined in multiple regions on September 18. In August 2025, China's alumina exports increased year - on - year, and aluminum bauxite imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Alumina warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment interfered with the market. Fundamentally, refinery profits shrank, but raw materials were relatively abundant. Operating capacity continued to reach new highs, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, with prices under pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies or waiting and watching, and also pay attention to the 10 - 1, 2 - 3 reverse arbitrage opportunities [10][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: After the interest rate cut, aluminum prices declined. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Relevant policies were issued, and a company's new project is expected to be put into production in 2026. - **Logic**: In the short term, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. On the supply side, replacement production capacity was put into operation, and on the demand side, the peak season was approaching, but the inventory reduction inflection point was not clear. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be range - bound. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand remains resilient, with the price center expected to rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports, and most die - casting enterprises plan to have holidays in October. - **Logic**: On the cost side, scrap aluminum supply was tight, providing cost support. On the supply side, the start - up rate increased marginally, and on the demand side, there was marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. In the future, there is room for an increase, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [14][15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, zinc prices declined with the non - ferrous metals. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the spot premium of zinc in different regions changed, and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and the non - ferrous metals sector declined. On the supply side, zinc ore supply was loose, and smelters' profitability was good. On the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations were average. - **Outlook**: In September, zinc ingot production will remain high, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to be oscillating [16][17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply of recycled lead decreased, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased. SMM's lead ingot price increased, and the spot premium decreased. Lead ingot social inventories increased slightly, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased, and warehouse receipts decreased. On the supply side, recycled lead production decreased, and on the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the lead - acid battery start - up rate was high. - **Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive. Lead demand is stable, and supply may tighten slightly. The supply - demand gap may continue, and lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [17][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories increased significantly, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME nickel inventories decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron was firm, and relevant company events had little impact on production. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel supply is in excess, and inventories are accumulating. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are oscillating widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and watch [20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, stainless steel is operating weakly. - **Analysis**: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased, the spot premium of stainless steel changed, and the average price of high - nickel pig iron increased. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable. Stainless steel production increased in August, and inventory reduction was limited. - **Outlook**: Be vigilant about the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. Stainless steel is expected to be range - bound in the short term [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventories have been declining continuously, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the spot price of tin decreased. - **Logic**: The supply side is the core concern. The复产 of the Wa State mine is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening, and inventories are rising. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating due to tight supply at the mine end [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different metals are as follows: copper - oscillating strongly; alumina - short - term oscillating weakly; aluminum - short - term oscillating, medium - term expected to move up; aluminum alloy - short - term oscillating, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 expected to rise later; zinc - oscillating; lead - oscillating strongly; nickel - oscillating weakly; stainless steel - oscillating; tin - oscillating [8][10][15][18][19][20][23][25][26][27] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The US dollar remains weak, and base metals are still expected to strengthen. Weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, but weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the short to medium term, base metals are expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support metal prices [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The US dollar index oscillates at a low level, and copper prices operate at a high level. It is expected to be oscillating strongly [8] - **Analysis**: US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected; a mine in Indonesia suspended operations; August copper production decreased slightly month - on - month; spot copper premiums declined; copper inventory increased; a policy led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; August US CPI rose [8][9] - **Logic**: The low - level US dollar index supports copper prices. Supply is disrupted by mine accidents and policy - induced production cuts. Demand is in the peak season, but inventory reduction is not obvious. If inventory drops, copper prices may strengthen [9] 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected to be oscillating [10] - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions declined; an aluminum plant's bid price for alumina decreased; there was a strike warning in a Guinean aluminum - bauxite enterprise; a Guinean company had a strong复产 expectation; there was an overseas alumina transaction; alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10][11][13] - **Logic**: Macro sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, refinery profits have shrunk, production capacity is at a new high, supply is in excess, and imports may increase, so prices are under pressure [14] 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Pay attention to the demand quality, and aluminum prices oscillate. Short - term consumption and inventory turning points need to be observed, and the medium - term center is expected to move up [15][16] - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices declined slightly; inventory continued to accumulate; a policy on new energy power was released; a company planned to replace and build an electrolytic aluminum project [15] - **Logic**: Short - term interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar is weak. Supply capacity is high, demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction turning point is not clear, so prices oscillate [15] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the futures price oscillates. ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rise later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [18] - **Analysis**: Aluminum alloy prices declined; relevant policies on margin and export tax were introduced; a company extended its product line [16][17][18] - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum supports prices. Supply and demand are both marginally improving, and inventory is accumulating. The AD - AL spread is expected to rise [18] 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate. In the long - term, there is room for prices to fall [20] - **Analysis**: Spot zinc discounts remained stable; zinc inventory increased; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was determined [19] - **Logic**: The US labor market is weak, and the US dollar is under pressure. Zinc supply is loose, demand is average, and the market is in excess. With the expectation of Fed rate cuts, zinc prices oscillate in the short term [20] 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Recycled lead supply decreases, and lead prices oscillate strongly [20] - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable; lead prices were stable; lead inventory increased due to delivery and is expected to fall after delivery; downstream consumption is in the transition period, and battery factory operating rates are high [20][21][22] - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply is reduced by policy - induced production cuts, and demand is stable. The supply - demand gap may continue, so prices are oscillating strongly [22][23] 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME nickel inventory increased significantly, and nickel prices oscillate weakly [24] - **Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly; high - nickel pig iron prices were stable; an Indonesian mine was not significantly affected by an incident; a company completed a nickel - mine acquisition [23][24] - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening, with increased inventory and weak price support, so prices oscillate weakly [25] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are stable, and stainless steel prices operate weakly. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Analysis**: Stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot premiums were stable; nickel - iron prices were stable; August stainless steel production increased; inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices are stable. Production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased. Attention should be paid to demand during the peak season [26] 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices oscillate at a high level [27] - **Analysis**: LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts changed; spot tin prices declined; the复产 of a mine in Wa State was slow; Indonesian exports will gradually return to normal; African tin production is unstable; domestic tin concentrate processing fees are low, and production rates are falling; tin inventory has increased [27] - **Logic**: Supply is tight, which supports prices. However, terminal demand has weakened, and inventory has increased, so upward momentum is limited [27] 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) - The report lists different metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text [30][44][56][69][82][95][109][124][136] 3.3商品指数 (Commodity Indexes) - On September 17, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2245.98 (- 0.33%), the commodity 20 index was 2515.59 (- 0.45%), and the industrial products index was 2270.66 (+ 0.04%). The non - ferrous metals index was 2396.21, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month increase of 1.19%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.81% [155][157]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar in 2023, attributing it to various factors including high US fiscal deficits, changes in Federal Reserve policies, and concerns over the safety of dollar assets, leading to a shift in global capital flows towards emerging markets, particularly Chinese assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for the Weak Dollar - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence and promotion of reciprocal tariffs has triggered a crisis of confidence in the dollar, undermining its institutional trust [5]. - The "weak dollar" policy is a strategic tool for Trump to stimulate manufacturing and export competitiveness, sacrificing some short-term dollar credibility for long-term goals [5]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" has become mainstream, with significant increases in foreign exchange derivatives hedging demand and a rise in dollar short positions among global investors [6][7]. Group 2: Impact of Weak Dollar on Emerging Markets - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets, including China, tend to perform well, indicating a negative correlation between the dollar index and emerging market indices [13][15]. - The A-share market benefits from a relatively stable or appreciating RMB during weak dollar periods, attracting foreign capital inflows [15][18]. Group 3: Investment Themes in a Weak Dollar Environment - Investment opportunities in Chinese assets include: - Technology growth assets, which are expected to gain value during weak dollar periods, with a focus on long-term growth and scarcity [20]. - Hong Kong stocks, benefiting from global liquidity and domestic profit improvements [20]. - Dividend and low-valuation sectors such as banking and insurance, which are attractive in a high-low market switch [20]. - Funds related to physical assets like copper, gold, and oil, which are prioritized during weak dollar cycles [20]. - Overall, the weak dollar represents not only a current market reality but also a long-term logic for global capital reallocation and institutional credit reassessment, with Chinese assets showing strong appeal due to solid fundamentals and low valuations [21].

Core Viewpoint - On September 11, the A-share market saw a significant inflow of funds into stock ETFs, totaling 15.611 billion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and investment interest in various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Fund Flows - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.32 trillion yuan as of September 11, with a net inflow of 15.611 billion yuan on that day [5]. - The Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflow, attracting 7.359 billion yuan, particularly in the innovative drug sector, which saw significant buying activity despite a market downturn [6]. - The broad-based ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, totaling 5.396 billion yuan, with the ETF tracking the CSI A500 index receiving 2.524 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative drug ETFs from GF Fund and Yinhua Fund saw net inflows of 2.297 billion yuan and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, despite the sector facing a downturn [6][8]. - The battery sector also attracted significant investment, with GF Fund's battery ETF receiving a net inflow of 507 million yuan, making it the largest in the market with a total scale of 9.952 billion yuan [7][9]. - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," saw multiple securities ETFs achieve net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank ETF accumulating over 1 billion yuan in net buying this week [6][9]. Group 3: Outflows and Market Trends - The ChiNext 50 ETF experienced the largest outflow, totaling 2.122 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from this sector [10][11]. - Other sectors facing outflows included photovoltaic, semiconductor, and artificial intelligence ETFs, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking in these areas [12]. - Looking ahead, the easing liquidity environment is expected to support A-share valuations, with potential benefits for cyclical core assets like the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices [13].

Group 1: Institutional Funds - Institutional funds are showing collaborative strength with significant growth in various sectors. Public funds saw a notable increase in new stock fund issuance in July, with the number and scale rising by 32.8% and 97.5% respectively compared to June. The second quarter saw major increases in holdings in the banking and TMT sectors [4][9][10] - Private equity funds also experienced a surge, with 1,591 new stock private equity funds launched in July, marking a 20.7% increase from June. The stock position has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 62.8% in July [4][15] - Insurance funds accelerated their market entry, with a net inflow of over 640 billion yuan into A-shares in the first half of the year. The allocation to stocks reached 3.1 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.5 trillion yuan in Q2 [4][20][21] Group 2: Retail Investors - Retail investor activity has increased, with 265,000 new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August, a 35% increase from July. However, this remains moderate compared to the peak in October 2024 [4][31] - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion yuan, surpassing the 2015 high, but the overall leverage ratio remains healthy at 2.4% of the A-share market capitalization [4][31] Group 3: Foreign Capital - Foreign capital is returning to A-shares, with over 100 billion yuan flowing back in Q2 2025. From August 14 to August 20, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, marking a shift towards net inflows for the first time since mid-October 2024 [4][6] - The foreign capital primarily increased holdings in defensive assets with stable cash flows, such as finance and public utilities, as well as high-growth sectors like communication and biomedicine [4][6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The mid-term outlook for A-shares indicates a continued emphasis on high-quality equity allocation. Despite short-term volatility, the accumulation of positive factors in the industry and the ongoing policy implementation suggest a favorable environment for investment [4][6] - Key investment themes include the AI industry chain, advanced manufacturing sectors with international competitiveness, and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]