光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡走强，主力05合约收盘价1721元/吨，涨幅1.24%。现货市场 部成交有所好转，再加上淡储等需求逐步跟进，主流地区产销率昨日多数提升至 | 震荡 | | | 开始松动，局部主流地区价格小幅下调，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1720 | | | | 元/吨、1680元/吨，日环比均下跌10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续下降 | | | | ，昨日行业日产量18.98万吨，日环比下降0.25万吨。需求情绪在期货盘面上涨后局 | | | | | 坚挺 | | | 100%以上，个别地区成交仍偏弱，区域间也仍有分化。近期市场焦点仍在于印标 | | | | 及我国出口政策变化预期，新增出口配额传言对市场情绪扰动明显，但消息来源需 | | | | 仔细甄别，政策需以 方为准。在新增利好因素兑现以前，盘面仍以坚挺震荡趋势 | | | | 为主，关注印标结果及出口预期等因素共振带来的阶段性行情机会，另需关注尿素 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢联 9 月 22 日资讯，印尼能源和矿产资源部通过矿产和煤炭总局正式对印度尼西亚各地区的 190 家采矿公司实施制裁。暂停是因为这些公司没有按照适用的规定提供索赔和退款担保，尽管之前已经 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | ...

钢材日报 钢材价格认为下方受到成本端的支撑，但上方又受到需求逐渐转弱和钢材出口预期可能收紧的压制，钢材价格维持震荡的趋势。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3116 | 3128 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -12 | 2 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3128 | 3126 | 螺纹05-10月差 | -41 | -33 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3169 | 3159 | 螺纹10-01月差 | 53 | 31 | | 热卷01合约收盘价 | 3280 | 3282 | 热卷01-05月差 | -1 | 5 | | 热卷05合约收盘价 | 3281 | 3277 | 热卷05-10月差 | -14 | -15 | | 热卷10合约收盘价 | 3295 | 3292 | 热卷10-01月差 | 15 | 10 | 螺纹盘面价格. source ...

本来走得好好的A股，午后突然快速反攻。什么原因呢？ 是证券的大幅反攻带来的效果，如果不是证券从水逆到快速反攻，今天的走势不会如此快速。 知道了原因，你想下场吗？ 坦率来说，这个走势跟我昨天直播间说到完全相反，我认为既然继续选择向下，这次会更加彻底，连续多跌几个交易日。 没想到今天一个下午就给逆转了局势。我没看懂，还是不玩儿。 期货上锂矿涨幅超7%，稳稳站在了10万块上方，终于达到这个关键的价格关口。 不过我没有动手，之前认为锂矿的性价比不合适，现在依旧没有考虑下场。 第二：白酒再度走低 虽然今天午后三市大涨反攻，但似乎没有白酒什么事情，白酒依旧自顾自下跌。 我上周尝试了点，然后持续等待，有更合适的机会，继续上车即可。 第三：证券快速反攻 今天的反攻，是证券给的，从下跌超0.6%，到涨幅超2%，证券用时不足半小时。可见这波反攻之猛烈。 确实太突然了，我只是浅尝辄止，没有考虑增加，当然也没有时间来考虑增加。 不知道有没有朋友斩获颇丰的？恭喜了。开心享受炒股带来的乐趣吧。 我是李聪，10年读书会主理人，活到老、学到老，关注我，一起向上成长！ 以上仅为个人看法，不作为任何建议！ 板块上： 第一：锂矿大涨 ...

出口方面，原料及制品出口有所分化。1—10月PVC粉累计出口323万吨，同比大增49%，但PVC制品出 口大幅下滑，1—10月铺地材料累计出口同比降低11.5%。印度反倾销政策尚未落地，国内PVC粉出口价 格优势带动接单阶段性好转，但受船运费用上涨等因素影响，预计出口接单难以再度出现集中放量的情 况，对国内库存消化支撑作用显著弱化。中期来看，明年一、二季度是海外的需求旺季，PVC出口存改 善预期，出口量预计增长15%左右，将有效缓解国内过剩压力。 当前国内PVC粉价格仍然处于历史偏低水平，成本端电石价格维持稳定，而烧碱价格持续下挫。截至12 月12日，西北氯碱综合利润为250元／吨，但山东地区氯碱装置亏损达600元／吨，"以碱补氯"对PVC生 产的支撑大幅减弱。电石法PVC亏损幅度在1000元／吨左右，乙烯法PVC亏损在500元／吨左右，行业 亏损格局未改，高成本装置或有序退出。 2025年以来，PVC市场因供增需减、地产疲软等因素陷入弱势，价格创近10年新低。本周以来，PVC期 货价格连续拉升，主力合约昨日收涨2.16%。笔者认为，短期期价大幅走强缺乏核心驱动力。中期来 看，期价能否迎来反转仍要关注政策效果 ...

以下为2025年11月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/8 | 57, 750 | | | 2025/12/5 | 55, 375 | 91, 916 | | 2025/12/4 | 54, 325 | | | 2025/12/3 | 52, 450 | | | 2025/12/2 | 52, 375 | | | 2025/12/1 | 52, 025 | | | 2025/11/28 | 51, 750 | 95, 916 | | 2025/11/27 | 50, 800 | | | 2025/11/26 | 49, 925 | | | 2025/11/25 | 48, 000 | | | 2025/11/24 | 47,425 | | | 2025/11/21 | 47, 325 | 100, 347 | | 2025/11/20 | 46, 075 | | | 2025/11/19 | 45, 075 | | | 2025/11/18 | 43, 525 | | | 2025/11/17 | 39 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2025年12月8日） 今日白银期货价格查询（2025年12月8日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 13660.00 | 13918.00 | 13572.00 | 13687.00 | 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 ...

2025 年 12月 07 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(12.01-12.05),美豆期价跌势为主,因为美国财政部长斯科特 ·贝森特表示"中方采购美豆 1200万吨的时间从今年年底延长至明年２月底"。此外,中方采购美豆数量没有超预期利多,对美豆激励 作用不大。从周 K 线角度 22月5日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周跌幅2.81%,美豆粕主力 01月合约周 跌幅 3.52%。 3 上周(12.01-12.05),国内豆粕期价冲高回落,豆一期价偏弱。豆粕方面,美豆期价偏弱、市场缺 乏上涨动能,豆粕盘面价格顺势回落。豆一方面,现货稳中偏强,期货偏弱可能受到她储传言影响。从周 K 线角度,12月5日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 0.84%,豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 0.8%。(上 述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(12.01-12.05),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方继续采购美豆:事件本身利多、但低 于预期,对美豆激励有限。据USDA新闻讯,12月5日中国采购美豆 46.2万吨(2025/26年度交货)。2) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been adjusted downward, with the prices of various specifications generally dropping by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter. The arrival volume at ports on the supply side continues to rise, and the port inventory is higher than in the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure in the future. Currently, the futures price is at a relatively low level, and cost support limits the downside. Overall, the reality of the 01 contract is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. The futures market is expected to run weakly [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On November 28th, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2605 remained unchanged, while LG2603 increased by 2.0 yuan to 776.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.26%. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 2.0 to -11.5, and the 03 - contract basis decreased by 2.0 to -26.5. The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged [2]. - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the external market also remained unchanged on November 28th compared to previous dates [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 28th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.071 yuan, and the import theoretical cost was 806.36 yuan, a decrease of 0.28 yuan from the previous day, with a change of 0% [2]. Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared to September. The number of ships at the port (New Zealand → China, Japan, South Korea) was 54, an increase of 8 or 17.39% compared to the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 303 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 11.1 million cubic meters; the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.18 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.5 million cubic meters [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.44 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong was 3.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters; the outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival at Ports - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].