Market Overview - As of January 21, the top 20 futures companies for polypropylene (PP) had a total long position of 462,700 contracts and a short position of 525,400 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position decreased by 1,288 contracts to -62,800 contracts compared to the previous day [1] - The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China is at 75.62%, which is an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. Weekly production of PP granules reached 775,800 tons, down 0.44% week-on-week, while PP powder production fell to 56,900 tons, a decrease of 15.62% week-on-week [1] Profit Margins - The production margins for various methods of PP production are as follows: oil-based PP has a margin of -430.13 CNY/ton, coal-based PP -314.73 CNY/ton, methanol-based PP -970.67 CNY/ton, propane dehydrogenation -1,297.8 CNY/ton, and externally sourced propylene -435.4 CNY/ton [1] Institutional Insights - According to Xinda Futures, the current PP market is characterized by a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term low inventory, maintenance of some facilities, and rising costs from refined oil providing support. However, long-term concerns include excess crude oil supply, increased post-holiday supply, weak downstream demand, and the substitution effect of granules, leading to a lack of clear directional movement and an overall range-bound market [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that the rise in futures prices is supported by a slight reduction in global oil inventories as predicted by the EIA monthly report, alleviating supply excess. There are no new capacity additions planned for the first half of 2026, which reduces pressure. Seasonal fluctuations in downstream operating rates contribute to a high overall inventory pressure, with no significant contradictions in the short term. The historical high level of warehouse receipts suggests that prices may stabilize as the supply excess situation changes in the first quarter of next year, with a shift from cost-driven declines to mismatched production leading to opportunities for low-price buying of PP spreads [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper price closed 1.28% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to supply disruptions in mines, the global copper supply - demand outlook has shifted to a deficit. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed 1.0% lower overnight. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, the zinc price may experience a phased correction. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 100,940 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 155 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 12,754 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 101.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,425 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 3,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 23,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,108 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 12.62 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 485,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 3,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 24,365 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,173 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 43.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 105,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,475 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 141,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,740 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 17,614 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 200.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 285,708 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 24 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,165 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,029 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 46.32 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 203,500 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 399,000 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5,810 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 49,412 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 92.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 6,440 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 505 tons [2].

机构观点 新湖期货： 基于供应过剩格局对于价格的极大压制，外加位于产能扩张周期，导致纯碱价格亦跌难涨，因此纯碱依旧可作为空配标的，以反弹沽空策略为 主。套利策略方面中长期逢低布局09多玻璃空纯碱。持续关注新产能投放动态以及碱厂装置变动情况。 光大期货： 消息面 上周(2026.1.9-2026.1.15)国内纯碱产量77.53万吨，环比增加2.88%，同比增加8.16%。 1月20日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格轻质出厂1280元/吨，重质暂不报价；江苏井神化工纯碱装置减少，设备有检修，价格稳定，轻 质报价出厂1270元/吨。 1月19日纯碱企业库存录得154.42万吨，较上一交易日减少3.08万吨。 基本面来看，近期个别企业装置减量、短停，行业开工率昨日降至84.94%，但阿拉善二期产能稳产也将抵消短期供应下降幅度。需求端跟进情绪 谨慎，中下游按需、低价补库为主。整体来看，纯碱基本面压力依旧突出，短期期货价格维持偏弱运行趋势，关注春节前中下游备货能否给市场 带来托底，另需关注纯碱装置负荷变化、下游产能变化、宏观政策及商品市场整体情绪。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 2603 contract of corn resumed rising, with near - month contracts leading the increase and forward contracts following. The spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The domestic average corn price is 2321 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The overall view is that corn is in an oscillatory state. Short - term long positions should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on the strong performance of surrounding commodities. [2] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand and a sharp rise in soybean oil futures. The U.S. soybean single - week net sales were 2.0619 million tons, which is positive. Domestically, protein meal continued to weaken, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The overall view is that soybean meal is oscillatory, and a double - selling strategy is recommended. Rapeseed meal should pay attention to Canada's visit to China, and an option double - buying strategy is suggested. [2] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell on Thursday, following the decline in the surrounding market. CBOT soybean oil rose sharply, and Canadian rapeseed prices increased. The domestic oil market was weak but rose sharply at night, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. The overall view is that oils are oscillatory, and a strategy of selling put options is recommended. [2] - Eggs: The egg futures rebounded on Thursday, with the 2603 contract rising 1.96%. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that eggs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Short - term long positions can be moderately participated in, and the influence of funds and sentiment on the market should be continuously monitored. [2][3] - Pigs: The 2603 contract of live pigs rebounded during the session on Thursday and then declined in the afternoon. The spot price of live pigs was relatively stable. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that live pigs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Long positions should be held cautiously, and short - term market sentiment changes and the impact of spot prices on the futures market should be monitored. [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - On the 12th noon, MPOB announced the Malaysian palm oil data for December. The production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly less than the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, all within market expectations. The 1 - 2 month production is expected to decline seasonally, and with India's festival stocking demand approaching, Malaysian palm oil may gradually reach a high - inventory inflection point. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's slight increase in export LEVY and the implementation of the U.S. RVO policy. [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given. [5][6][8][9][12] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given. [14][15][18][20][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of DCE in 2023. [27] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times, and her team has won many awards. [27] - Kong Hailan, an analyst for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures, has a master's degree in economics. Her team has won many awards, and she has been interviewed by many mainstream media. [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].

今日黄金期货价格实时行情（2026年1月14日） 今日黄金期货价格（2026年1月14日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 报价单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1036.94 | 1028.82 | 1027.18 | 1038.70 | 1028.24 | 元/克 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 备注：以上 黄金期货价格仅供参考，更多 黄金期货行情实时价格、 黄金期货一手要多少钱请以官方价 格为准，如有对黄期货价格有何疑问可咨询本站客服。 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦镍库存明显累积，1月9日库存增至284,790吨，刷新逾 七年新高，本周库存有所回落，最新库存水平为284,562吨。 2023年以来LME和上期所镍库存对比 以下为2025年12月以来LME和上期所镍库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/12 | 284, 562 | | | 2026/1/9 | 284, 790 | 46, 650 | | 2026/1/8 | 276, 300 | | | 2026/1/7 | 275, 634 | | | 2026/1/6 | 255, 546 | | | 2026/1/5 | 255, 354 | | | 2026/1/2 | 255, 282 | | | 2025/12/31 | 255, 162 | 45, 544 | | 2025/12/30 | 255, 186 | | | 2025/12/29 | 255, 186 | | | 2025/12/26 | | 44, 454 | | 2025/12/24 | 255, 696 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, with the marginal weakening of macro sentiment, the upward pressure on the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. The butadiene raw material market's short - term buying sentiment is marginally weakening, presenting a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the butadiene rubber mainly fluctuates following the cost side [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking 1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased by 55 yuan/ton to 12,070 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 12,475 lots to 113,696 lots, the open interest increased by 65,592 lots to 91,931 lots, and the trading volume increased by 71,055 ten - thousand yuan to 6,810,210,000 yuan [1]. 1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 105 to - 120, and the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 increased by 10 to - 60 [1]. 1.3 Spot Market - The butadiene rubber prices in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong all decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,475 yuan/ton [1]. 1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 79.6897%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber increased by 103 yuan/ton to 11,976 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber increased by 97 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the previous period due to reduced import arrivals and normal raw material inventory consumption [2]. - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. Although the production was high and sales improved, there was some unsold inventory, and the overall inventory change was limited [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 47.9 million cubic meters, 7.05 million cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [2] - The 01 contract continues to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upside is limited. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 9, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from January 8; log 2603 was 774.5, down 4.0 from January 8 with a decline of - 0.51%; log 2605 was 787.0, down 2.0 with a decline of - 0.25%; log 2607 was 798.0, down 2.5 with a decline of - 0.31%. The basis of the main contract was - 34.5, up 4.0 from January 8 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged from January 8 to January 9. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars with a decline of - 1.79%; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.976, unchanged from January 11. The import theoretical cost was 755.70 yuan, down 13.87 yuan from January 11 with a decline of - 2% [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory: On November 30, it was 191.4 million cubic meters, up 2.2 million cubic meters from October 31 with an increase of 1.16% [1] - Departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea: The number of departing ships was 52.0, up 3.0 from the previous period with an increase of 6.12% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 2, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 267 million cubic meters, up 13 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.12%. In Shandong, it was 195.00 million cubic meters, up 9.8 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.29% [1] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.65 million cubic meters, down 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%. In Shandong, it was 2.89 million cubic meters, up 0.10 million cubic meters with an increase of 4%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.17 million cubic meters, down 0.27 million cubic meters with a decline of - 11% [2]