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LPG早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]
全品种价差日报-20250910
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:36
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors on September 10, 2025, including black metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and financial products [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Category Black Metals - The commodities include ferrosilicon (SF511), ferromanganese (SM601), rebar (RB2601), hot - rolled coil (HC2601), iron ore (I2601), coke (J2601), and coking coal (JM2601). For example, the spot price of ferrosilicon (SF511) is 5688, the futures price is 5620, the basis is 68, the basis rate is 1.21%, and the historical quantile is 65.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Commodities such as copper (CU2510), aluminum (AL2510), alumina (AO2601), zinc (ZN2510), tin (SN2510), nickel (NI510), stainless steel (SS2511), lithium carbonate (LC2511), and industrial silicon (SI2511) are covered. For instance, the spot price of copper (CU2510) is 79890, the futures price is 79650, the basis is 240, the basis rate is 0.30%, and the historical quantile is 70.62% [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) are included. The spot price of gold (AU2510) is 831.9, the futures price is 834.5, the basis is - 2.6, the basis rate is - 0.31%, and the historical quantile is 30.40% [2]. Agricultural Products - Commodities like soybean meal (M2601), soybean oil (Y2601), palm oil (P2601), rapeseed meal (RM601), rapeseed oil (OI601), corn (C2511), corn starch (CS2511), live pigs (H2511), eggs (JD2510), cotton (CF601), sugar (SR601), apples (AP601), and red dates (CJ601) are presented. For example, the spot price of cotton (CF601) is 15253, the futures price is 13835.0, the basis is 1418.0, the basis rate is 10.25%, and the historical quantile is 92.10% [3]. Energy Chemicals - Commodities such as p - xylene (PX511), PTA (TA601), ethylene glycol (EG2601), polyester staple fiber (PF511), styrene (EB2510), methanol (MA601), urea (UR601), LLDPE (L2601), PP (PP2601), PVC (V2601), caustic soda (SH601), LPG (PG2510), asphalt (BU2511), butadiene rubber (BR2510), glass (FG601), soda ash (SA601), and natural rubber (RU2601) are analyzed. For example, the spot price of ethylene glycol (EG2601) is 4440.0, the futures price is 4322.0, the basis is 118.0, the basis rate is 2.73%, and the historical quantile is 91.90% [3]. Financial Products - Financial products include stock index futures (IF2509.CFE, IH2509.CFE, IC2509.CFE, IM2509.CFE) and treasury bond futures (2 - year bond (TS2512), 5 - year bond (TF2512), 10 - year bond (T2512), 30 - year bond (TL2512)). For example, the spot price of IF2509.CFE is 4436.3, the futures price is 4426.2, the basis is - 10.1, the basis rate is - 0.23%, and the historical quantile is 36.40% [3].
全品种价差日报-20250904
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided documents. 2. Core View There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists the price information of various commodities including base metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Categories Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon iron (SF511), the spot price is 5520, the futures price is 5628, and the basis is 108 with a basis rate of 3.80%. For silicon manganese (SM601), the spot price is 5950, the futures price is 5732, and the basis is 218. For rebar (RB2601), the spot price is 3230, the futures price is 3106, and the basis is 124 with a basis rate of 3.99%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the spot price is 3340, the futures price is 3299, and the basis is 41 with a basis rate of 1.24%. For iron ore (I2601), the spot price is 823, the futures price is 1603, and the basis is - 777 with a basis rate of - 46%. For coke (J2601), the spot price is 1594, the futures price is 1603, and the basis is - 9 with a basis rate of - 0.5498. For coking coal (JM2601), the spot price is 1106, the futures price is 1114, and the basis is - 8 with a basis rate of - 0.72% [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper (CU2510), the spot price is 80520, the futures price is 80110, and the basis is 410 with a basis rate of 0.51%. For aluminum (AL2510), the spot price is 20730, the futures price is 20710, and the basis is 20 with a basis rate of 0.10%. For zinc (ZN2510), the spot price is 22285, the futures price is 22170, and the basis is 115 with a basis rate of 0.5296%. For tin (SN2510), the spot price is 273100, the futures price is 273120, and the basis is - 20 with a basis rate of - 0.0073%. For nickel (NISE10), the spot price is 121775, the futures price is 121790, and the basis is - 15 with a basis rate of - 0.01%. For stainless steel (SS2510), the spot price is 13320, the futures price is 5662, and the basis is 405 with a basis rate of 3.14%. For lithium carbonate (LC2511), the spot price is 75900, the futures price is 71880, and the basis is 4020 with a basis rate of 5.59%. For industrial silicon (SI2511), the spot price is 9100, the futures price is 8490, and the basis is 610 with a basis rate of 7.18% [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2510), the spot price is 814.9, the futures price is 810.0, and the basis is 4.9 with a basis rate of 0.60%. For silver (AG2510), the spot price is 9780.0, the futures price is 9820.0, and the basis is - 40.0 with a basis rate of - 0.41% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2601), the spot price is 2990, the futures price is 3066.0, and the basis is - 76.0 with a basis rate of - 2.48%. For soybean oil (Y2601), the spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8366.0, and the basis is 134.0 with a basis rate of 1.60%. For palm oil (P2601), the spot price is 9340, the futures price is 9368.0, and the basis is - 28.0 with a basis rate of - 0.30%. For rapeseed meal (RM601), the spot price is 2580, the futures price is 2521.0, and the basis is 59.0 with a basis rate of 2.34%. For rapeseed oil (Ole01), the spot price is 9860, the futures price is 9727.0, and the basis is 133.0 with a basis rate of 1.37%. For corn (C2511), the spot price is 2290, the futures price is 2193.0, and the basis is 97.0 with a basis rate of 4.42%. For corn starch (CS2511), the spot price is 2620, the futures price is 2487.0, and the basis is 133 with a basis rate of 5.35%. For live pigs (LH251), the spot price is 14150, the futures price is 13550.0, and the basis is 600.0 with a basis rate of 4.43%. For eggs (JD2510), the spot price is 3270, the futures price is 3011.0, and the basis is 259.0 with a basis rate of 8.60%. For cotton (CF601), the spot price is 15373, the futures price is 1383.0, and the basis is 13990.0 with a basis rate of 9.89%. For white sugar (SR601), the spot price is 5562.0, the futures price is 5134.0, and the basis is 428.0 with a basis rate of 7.70%. For apples (AP510), the spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8332.0, and the basis is 268.0 with a basis rate of 3.22%. For red dates (C1601), the spot price is 11325.0, the futures price is 10722.0, and the basis is 603 with a basis rate of 6.10% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - For p - xylene (PX511), the spot price is 6901.0, the futures price is 6810.0, and the basis is 91.0 with a basis rate of 1.34%. For PTA (TA601), the spot price is 4732.0, the futures price is 4685.0, and the basis is 47.0 with a basis rate of 0.99%. For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the spot price is 4420.0, the futures price is 4331.0, and the basis is 89.0 with a basis rate of 2.05%. For styrene (EB2510), the spot price is 7060.0, the futures price is 7040.0, and the basis is 20.0 with a basis rate of 0.28%. For methanol (MA601), the spot price is 2382.0, the futures price is 2257.5, and the basis is 124.5 with a basis rate of 5.23%. For urea (UR601), the spot price is 1710.0, the futures price is 1714.0, and the basis is - 4.0 with a basis rate of - 0.23%. For LLDPE (L2601), the spot price is 7247.0, the futures price is 7250.0, and the basis is - 3.0 with a basis rate of - 0.04%. For PP (PP2601), the spot price is 6954.0, the futures price is 6965.0, and the basis is - 11.0 with a basis rate of - 0.16%. For PVC (V2601), the spot price is 4878.0, the futures price is 4680.0, and the basis is 198.0 with a basis rate of 4.06%. For caustic soda (SH601), the spot price is 2718.8, the futures price is 2612.0, and the basis is 106.8 with a basis rate of 4.09%. For LPG (PG2510), the spot price is 4408.0, the futures price is 4416.0, and the basis is - 8.0 with a basis rate of - 0.18%. For asphalt (BU2510), the spot price is 3550.0, the futures price is 3550.0, and the basis is 0.0 with a basis rate of 0.00%. For butadiene rubber (BR2510), the spot price is 12100.0, the futures price is 12099.5, and the basis is 0.5 with a basis rate of 0.004%. For glass (FG601), the spot price is 1135.0, the futures price is 1040.0, and the basis is 95.0 with a basis rate of 8.90%. For soda ash (SA601), the spot price is 1276.0, the futures price is 1176.0, and the basis is 100.0 with a basis rate of 8.43%. For natural rubber (RU2601), the spot price is 15885.0, the futures price is 15050.0, and the basis is 835.0 with a basis rate of 5.26% [1]. Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2509.CFF, the spot price is 4459.8, the futures price is 4430.0, and the basis is 29.8 with a basis rate of 0.67%. For IH2509.CHE, the spot price is 2961.0, the futures price is 2949.0, and the basis is 12.0 with a basis rate of 0.41%. For IC2509.CFE, the spot price is 6868.5, the futures price is 6788.8, and the basis is 79.7 with a basis rate of 1.17%. For IM2509.CFE, the spot price is 7206.9, the futures price is 7142.6, and the basis is 64.3 with a basis rate of 0.90% [1]. - **Bond Futures**: For 2 - year bond (TS2512), the spot price is 102.44, the futures price is 100.00, and the basis is 2.44 with a basis rate of 2.43%. For 5 - year bond (TF2512), the spot price is 99.45, the futures price is 105.69, and the basis is - 6.24 with a basis rate of - 6.27%. For 10 - year bond (T2512), the spot price is 106.50, the futures price is 108.12, and the basis is - 1.62 with a basis rate of - 1.52%. For 30 - year bond (TL2512), the spot price is 132.79, the futures price is 117.03, and the basis is 15.76 with a basis rate of 13.47% [1][4].
《金融》日报-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 08:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250828
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 06:06
Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 796.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was -43.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (Carajás fines: 61 yuan today, up 1 yuan from the previous day), the basis values and their changes are presented. Some varieties like Mac fines had a stable basis, while others like FMG blended fines had a basis increase of 2 yuan [6]. 2.2 Basis Charts - There are charts for different basis benchmarks including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, etc. [8][9] 3. Policy - related Adjustments of Dalian Commodity Exchange 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) were added, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. 3.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums and Discounts - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums and discounts of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums and Discounts - The allowable range of iron grade index was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount regulations for different index intervals were detailed, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium and discount value of the iron element index (X) was introduced [11]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines (145.0 yuan/ton, unchanged), PB fines - blended fines (62.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan), etc. are presented [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different types of variety spreads, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][18] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [23]
全品种价差日报-20250815
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 05:47
Group 1: Metals and Minerals - 72-silicon ferrosilicon qualified block in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt has a conversion price of 5744, with a futures price of 5828 and a basis rate of 1.46% [1] - 6517-silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt has a futures price of 6070, a spot price of 6050, and a basis rate of 0.33% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai has a futures price of 3189, and Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai has a futures price of 3432 [1] - 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port has a conversion price, with a futures price change of - 4.22% [1] - Quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port has a futures price change and historical quantile data [1] - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi has a futures price of 1191, a spot price of 1214, and a basis rate of - 1.89% [1] - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79435, a spot price of 78950, and a basis rate of 0.61% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) has a futures price of 20715, a spot price of 20710, and a basis rate of - 0.02% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) has a futures price of 22480, a spot price of 22440, and a basis rate of - 0.18% [1] - Tin (SN2509) has a high historical quantile of 87.70% [1] - Nickel (NISE09) has a futures price of 121200, a spot price of 122700, and a basis rate of 1.24% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2510) has a futures price of 13025, a spot price of 13370, and a basis rate of 2.65% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) has a futures price of 3240, a spot price of 3248, and a basis rate of 0.25% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) has a futures price of 2990, a spot price of 3157, and a basis rate of 7.50% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) has a futures price of 8520, a spot price of 8610, and a basis rate of 1.06% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) has a futures price of 9368, a spot price of 9370, and a basis rate of 0.02% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) has a futures price of 2686, a spot price of 2540, and a basis rate of - 5.44% [1] - Rapeseed oil (Ol601) has a futures price of 9840, a spot price of 9940, and a basis rate of 1.02% [1] - Corn (C2509) has a futures price of 2281, a spot price of 2320, and a basis rate of 1.71% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) has a futures price of 2648, a spot price of 2730, and a basis rate of 3.10% [1] - Live pigs (H251) have a futures price of 13900, and the spot price is the same, with a basis rate of 0.00% [1] - Eggs (JD2510) have a futures price of 3090, a spot price of 3189, and a basis rate of - 3.10% [1] - Cotton (CF601) has a futures price of 15060, a spot price of 14155, and a basis rate of 6.39% [1] - Sugar (SR601) has a futures price of 5659, a spot price of 6040, and a basis rate of 6.73% [1] - Apples (AP510) have a futures price of 8600, and the spot price is related to the delivery theoretical price [1] - Red dates (CJ601) have a futures price of 8300, a spot price of 11460, and a basis rate of - 27.57% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX511) has a futures price of 6614, a spot price of 6775.2, and a basis rate of 2.44% [1] - PTA (TA601) has a futures price of 4640, a spot price of 4630, and a basis rate of - 0.22% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) has a futures price of 4367, a spot price of 4450, and a basis rate of 1.90% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF510) has a futures price of 6338, a spot price of 6475, and a basis rate of 2.16% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) has a futures price of 7238, a spot price of 7345, and a basis rate of 1.48% [1] - Methanol (MA601) has a futures price of 2340, a spot price of 2350, and a basis rate of 0.43% [1] - Urea (UR601) has a futures price of 1726, a spot price of 1720, and a basis rate of - 0.35% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) has a futures price of 7287, a spot price of 7300, and a basis rate of 0.18% [1] - PP (PP2601) has a futures price of 7085, a spot price of 7080, and a basis rate of - 0.07% [1] - PVC (V2509) has a futures price of 4970, a spot price of 4900, and a basis rate of - 1.41% [1] - Caustic soda (SH509) has a futures price of 2530, a spot price of 2562.5, and a basis rate of 1.28% [1] - LPG (PG2509) has a futures price of 3858, a spot price of 440, and a basis rate of 11.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2510) has a futures price of 3472, a spot price of 3640, and a basis rate of 4.84% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) has a futures price of 11645, a spot price of 11800, and a basis rate of 1.33% [1] - Glass (FG601) has relevant price and basis data [1] - Soda ash (SA601) has a futures price of 1284, a spot price of 1400, and a basis rate of - 9.03% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) has a futures price of 15635, a spot price of 14800, and a basis rate of - 5.64% [1] Group 4: Financial Futures - IF2509.CFF has a futures price of 4173.3, a spot price of 4163.8, and a basis rate of - 0.23% [1] - IH2509.CFE has relevant price and basis data [1] - IC2509.CFE has a futures price of 6380.2, a spot price of 6429.8, and a basis rate of - 0.78% [1] - IM2509.CFE has a futures price of 6929.2, a spot price of 6976.5, and a basis rate of - 0.68% [1] - 2 - year Treasury bond (TS2509) has a futures price of 102.35, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.29, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 5 - year Treasury bond (TF2509) has a futures price of 105.69, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.67, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 10 - year Treasury bond (T2509) has a futures price of 108.35, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.73, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 30 - year Treasury bond (TL2509) has a futures price of 117.82, a spot price of 133.02, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1]
大越期货PVC期货早报-20250814
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:30
Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive)**: Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - **PVC Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **PVC Inventory**: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].
股指基差系列:期货视角的风险偏好衰减
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 12:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core View: The report analyzes the July stock index basis market. In the short - term, the risk preference in the futures market has declined, and the short - side power has increased marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, the index is expected to rise and the discount to converge this year, but the subsequent upward momentum may weaken, and the discount convergence may slow down [5][22] Group 2: Recent Basis Review - Market Trends: In July, the market revolved around domestic and overseas mainlines. Domestically, the "anti - involution" concept boosted the market, which then cooled down. Overseas, the US tariff negotiations affected the dollar index and domestic assets. The market sentiment was mainly optimistic, with high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds. Most broad - based indices had strong monthly lines, and small - and micro - cap stocks were still strong, while large - cap indices were dragged down by the banking sector [5][6] - Basis Changes: By July 31, 2025, the quarterly contract annualized basis rates of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 1.19%, - 2.02%, - 9.65%, and - 11.6% respectively. IH, IF, and IC were basically flat compared to the end of last month, and the IM discount slightly converged. The basis support weakened in July, and the basis turned down earlier than the index. The intraday 1 - minute frequency basis divergence among varieties increased, indicating a decline in risk preference [8][15] - Product - side Situation: Index - related products saw net outflows, with the scale of four broad - based index ETFs and A500ETF and index - enhanced products declining. The new issuance of index - enhanced products continued. The positions of private - equity neutral strategies increased, and the short - side power strengthened marginally. The CTA strategy maintained a relatively high net long position in stock index futures and was optimistic about the index and futures [17][18] - Strategy Performance: In July, the excess return of long - side substitution relative to the index was about 1%. The short - side hedging cost of IC and IM current - month contracts was lower than that of quarterly contracts by about 0.5%. The inter - period spread was affected by contract roll - over and declined at the end of the month [21] Group 3: Long - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM long - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 3.6%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and - 4.6% respectively [26] Group 4: Short - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM short - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 0.5%, - 0.3%, 2.0%, and - 0.1% respectively [33]
生猪:关注月初现货预期能否兑现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].
银河期货铁矿石日报-20250729
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:40
Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development Report [1][2] Core Data Futures Prices - DCE01: 770.5, up 13.5 from yesterday; DCE05: 749.0, up 11.0; DCE09: 798.0, up 12.0 [3] - I01 - I05: 21.5, up 2.5; I05 - I09: -49.0, down 1.0; I09 - I01: 27.5, down 1.5 [3] Spot Prices - PB powder: 770, down 12 from the day before yesterday; Newman powder: 766, down 11; Mac powder: 756, down 10 [3] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder, with a standard - converted price of 811, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 46, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 65, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 17 [3] Price Spreads - Spot variety spreads: e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder: 99, down 1; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder: 23, down 1 [3] - Import profits: e.g., Carajás fines: -4, up 4; Newman powder: 10, up 9 [3] Indexes - Platts 62% iron ore price: 100.1, down 2.5; Platts 65% iron ore price: 114.6, down 2.2; Platts 58% iron ore price: 87.4, down 2.1 [3] - Inner - outer market US - dollar spreads: e.g., SGX main - DCE01: 8.8, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05: 11.2, down 0.8; SGX main - DCE09: 5.2, down 0.4 [3] Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts, cross - period arbitrage spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different iron ore products, and inner - outer market US - dollar spreads [8][9][10]