Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, on July 16, 2025 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Stock Index Futures Spreads**: Provides the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - spot spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads, on July 16, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Treasury Bond Futures Spreads**: Presents the IRR, basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report details the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on July 16, 2025 [9]. Summary by Directory - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 780.40 yuan/gram, down 0.13%, and the AG2510 contract closed at 9225 yuan/kg, up 0.20% [9]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 3330.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.64%, and COMEX silver closed at 37.99 dollars/ounce, down 1.11% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3323.14 dollars/ounce, down 0.59%, and London silver was at 37.69 dollars/ounce, down 1.12% [9]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.27, down 0.33, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 41, down 6 [9]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 87.68, up 0.47%, and SHFE gold/silver was 84.60, down 0.32% [9]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.50%, up 1.6%, and the US dollar index was 98.63, up 0.53% [9]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.05%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.08% [9]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides information on spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on July 16, 2025 [11]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate increased by 1.39%, while CMA CGM increased by 4.02%, and some remained unchanged [11]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 7.26%, and the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 18.69% [11]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. all had varying degrees of increase, and the basis of the main contract increased by 10.20% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.66%, and monthly export amount increased by 2.87% [11]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report lists overseas and domestic economic data and financial events to be released on July 16, 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes the eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted trade balance, US June PPI, industrial output, and API and EIA crude oil inventories [12]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers steel - related surveys, Chinese port commercial crude oil inventories, glass production - sales ratio, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The price of BU main contract on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU06 on 7/10 was 3370, with a daily change of 16 and an interval change of 100 [4]. - The price of BU09 on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU12 on 7/10 was 3447, with a daily change of 7 and an interval change of 70 [4]. - The price of BU03 on 7/10 was 3384, with a daily change of 1 and an interval change of 69 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on 7/10 was 176,852, a decrease of 46,382 from the previous day and a decrease of 30,278 from the interval [4]. - The open interest on 7/10 was 471,972, an increase of 2,951 from the previous day and a decrease of 12,902 from the interval [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end price in the Shandong market on 7/10 was 3580, a decrease of 20 from the previous day and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the East China market on 7/10 was 3670, with no daily change and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the South China market on 7/10 was 3600, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the North China market on 7/10 was 3750, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the Northeast market on 7/10 was 3850, with no daily change and a decrease of 50 from the interval [4]. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis on 7/10 was - 49, a decrease of 26 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The East China basis on 7/10 was 41, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The South China basis on 7/10 was - 29, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 28 from the interval [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread on 7/10 was 14, a decrease of 15 from the previous day and a decrease of 31 from the interval [4]. - The 06 - 09 spread on 7/10 was - 259, an increase of 10 from the previous day and an increase of 42 from the interval [4]. - The 09 - 12 spread on 7/10 was 182, a decrease of 1 from the previous day and a decrease of 12 from the interval [4]. - The 12 - 03 spread on 7/10 was 63, an increase of 6 from the previous day [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on 7/10 was - 97, a decrease of 21 from the previous day and a decrease of 59 from the interval [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit on 7/10 was - 157, a decrease of 18 from the previous day and a decrease of 53 from the interval [4]. - The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 7/10 was 419, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 46 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (South Korea - East China) on 7/10 was - 153, with no daily change and an increase of 12 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (Singapore - South China) on 7/10 was - 961, an increase of 2 from the previous day and a decrease of 7 from the interval [4]. Related Prices - The Brent crude oil price on 7/10 was 70.2, with no daily change and an increase of 1.4 from the interval [4]. - The gasoline market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 7831, with no daily change and an increase of 81 from the interval [4]. - The diesel market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 6788, a decrease of 23 from the previous day and a decrease of 19 from the interval [4]. - The residue oil market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 3625, an increase of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 15 from the interval [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views No clear core views are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide daily data on various futures, including price differences, basis, ratios, and related economic indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: Presents price differences of various stock index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM), including spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. For example, IF spot - futures spread is - 15.92, with a change of 3.47 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Percentiles**: Provides historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles for price differences, helping to understand the relative position of current price differences [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Displays basis data for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), such as TS basis with a value of 1.6452 and a change of - 0.0090 on July 9, 2025 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads for different treasury bond futures contracts, including spreads between different quarters [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Shows cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF with a value of - 3.6960 and a change of - 0.0270 on July 9, 2025 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold and silver. For example, AU2508 contract closed at 766.82 yuan/g on July 9, 2025, down 9.40 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Displays basis data and price ratios between different precious metal contracts, such as the ratio of COMEX gold to silver being 90.77, up 1.10 from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Presents data on interest rates (10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) [5]. 3.4 Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Provides spot shipping quotes, including Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for different shipping companies and various shipping indices (SCFIS, SCFI) [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Displays futures prices of shipping contracts and the basis of the main contract. For example, the main contract EC2508 closed at 2012.5 on July 9, 2025, up 6.3 from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presents fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic indicators [8]. 3.5 Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data/Information**: Lists overseas economic indicators and financial events, including US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, US initial jobless claims, and EIA natural gas inventory [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Presents domestic economic indicators and financial events for different industries, such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory, steel - related production and inventory data [9].

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...

| | 20250701申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | ...

Group 1 - The article provides an update on the domestic futures basis data as of June 30 [1]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning newsletter released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on June 20, 2025, covering the performance of A-share stock indexes, stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and related trading strategies [1][2] 1. Market Performance 1.1 A-share Stock Indexes - On June 19, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.21% to 10051.97 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.36% to 2026.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.54% to 962.94 points. Market turnover was 1280.9 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.86%) led the gains, while textile and apparel (-2.36%), beauty care (-2.28%), and light industry manufacturing (-1.96%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 716, 56, and 4643 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -19.6 billion, -19.8 billion, 4.4 billion, and 35 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -13.8 billion, -10.9 billion, +5.3 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2] 1.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 77.02, 59.43, 44.69, and 45.32 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -14.47%, -11.9%, -13.21%, and -19.32% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 11%, 1%, and 0% respectively. As the delivery date approaches, attention should be paid to the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [2] 1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 19, the yields of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.293, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.442, up 0.61 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.557, down 0.24 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.907, down 0.88 bps [3] 1.4 Cash Bonds - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.074, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 220027.IB, with a yield change of +0.13 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.08, and an IRR of 1.86%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.084, and an IRR of 1.88%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210014.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.061, and an IRR of 1.72% [4] 1.5 Short - term Capital Interest Rates - Short - term capital interest rates have shown little change recently. SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 have remained relatively stable compared to the previous day, one week ago, and one month ago [12] 2. Trading Strategies 2.1 Stock Index Futures - In the short term, due to the deep discount of small - cap stock indexes, which is presumably due to the expansion of the scale of neutral products this year and the relatively high proportion of short positions in neutral products, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, a bullish view on the economy is maintained. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - caps, which may drag down the IC and IM indexes, so caution is advised [3] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The cash bond market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [5] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [12]

| 79.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5310 | 168 | 3.16% | 5750 | 5584 | 166 | 52.90% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 2.97% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 104 | 3.48% | 3090 | 2986 | 50.00% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 87 | 3190 | 52.30% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3103 | 2.80% | | | | | | 57 | 755 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 698 | 8.10% | 46.10% | 1374 | -27 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...