集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.0 | 0.06% | -41.8 | 100 | | 1956 | -27 | | | EC2602 | | 1871.8 | 8.84% | -282.6 | 52704 | | 36510 | 5003 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.8 | 3.37% | 422.4 | 11708 | | 20471 | 1634 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 2.46% | 269.2 | 587 | | 2184 | -36 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.2 | 2.27% | 103.0 | 256 | | 1197 | -91 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1061.0 | 1.02% | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为104元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为636.83元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月22日 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 新创信公众 叶倩宁 Z0016628 | 基差率 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 历史分位数 | 品种/合约 | 现货参考 | 留注 | -0.97% | 52.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | -32 | 5608 | 5640 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 0.03% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5810 | 5808 | 25.40% | 硅罐(SM603) | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 181 | 5.80% | 3300 | 69.20% | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3119 | | | | | | 3270 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3269 | 1 | 0.03 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（12.15-12.21） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 21.1 元/公斤（上周 21.1 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.78 元/公斤（上周 11.43 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1546 元/头（上周 1546 元/ 头）。供应端，冬至旺季前，企业放量出栏，散户顺势出栏，供应明显增量，但幅度有限；需求端，降温 及冬至消费持续增量，南北宰量创新高。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.79KG（上周 124.59KG），出栏均重环比上升 0.16%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强震荡。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11495 元/吨，最低价为 11080 元/吨，收盘价为 11150 元/吨（上周同期 11485 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2601 合约基差为 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Category a. Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is -0.54%, down 0.28% from yesterday. The spot price is 92,240 [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is -1.18%, down 0.50% from yesterday. The spot price is 21,730 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is 0.46%, down 0.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 23,130 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is -0.51%, down 0.39% from yesterday. The spot price is 16,725 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 2.66%, up 0.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 116,600 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract basis rate is 6.73%, down 1.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,200 [3]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The main contract basis rate is -9.03%, up 0.24% from yesterday. The spot price is 97,570 [3]. - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is -0.59%, up 0.10% from yesterday. The spot price is 974.68 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is -0.37%, down 0.01% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,463 [3]. b. Steel and Iron Ore - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 6.24%, down 0.44% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,320 [3]. - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.38% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,300 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 6.92%, down 0.47% from yesterday. The spot price is 831.3 [3]. c. Coal and Coke - Coke: The main contract basis rate is 0.72%, down 1.54% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,615 [3]. - Coking Coal (JIM): The main contract basis rate is -0.80%, down 6.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,117.5 [3]. - Thermal Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is -9.78%, down 1.12% from yesterday. The spot price is 723.0 [3]. d. Grains and Oils - Soybean (A): The main contract basis rate is -2.5%, up 1.17% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,940 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 10.67%, unchanged from yesterday. The spot price is 3,040 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 7.26%, down 0.84% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,510 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): The main contract basis rate is 6.20%, down 0.72% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,500 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 17.56%, up 0.26% from yesterday. The spot price is 9,400 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 0.38%, down 0.07% from yesterday. The spot price is 8,400 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 4.57%, up 0.76% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,290 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 2.84%, down 0.26% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,570 [3]. e. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is 13.98%, up 0.51% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,800 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 6.31%, up 6.05% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,100 [3]. - Live Pig: The main contract basis rate is 4.64%, up 1.88% from yesterday. The spot price is 11,850 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.45%, down 0.31% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,139 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 5.64%, up 0.37% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,390 [3]. f. Chemicals - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is -0.07%, up 0.21% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,173 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is -3.24%, down 0.23% from yesterday. The spot price is 3,645 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is -1.22%, up 0.14% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,690 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 8.30%, down 0.43% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,800 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 1.64%, down 0.40% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,490 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is 2.24%, down 0.90% from yesterday. The spot price is 6,310 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 8.09%, up 0.05% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,000 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is 14.80%, down 7.40% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,405 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is -1.76%, up 0.45% from yesterday. The spot price is 15,050 [3]. - 20 - Number Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is 4.30%, up 0.60% from yesterday. The spot price is 12,991 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is -3.86%, down 1.04% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,147 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is -1.64%, down 3.10% from yesterday. The spot price is 1,680 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 0.45%, up 0.11% from yesterday. The spot price is 5,525 [3]. g. Energy - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is -8.2%, up 0.13% from yesterday. The spot price is 394.5 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 7.68%, up 0.32% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,626 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is -1.42%, up 1.96% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,910 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.54%, down 0.97% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,947 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 10.20%, up 3.31% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,528 [3]. h. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.05%, up 0.02% from yesterday. The spot price is 4,552.8 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is 0.12%, down 0.03% from yesterday. The spot price is 2,998.5 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is 0.00%, up 0.12% from yesterday. The spot price is 7,100.8 [3].

免责声明 | 留注 | 品种/合约 | 期货价格 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货价格 | 星差 | 现货参考 | 76 | 1.39% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5558 | 5482 | 64.50% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 74 | 5810 | 1.29% | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5736 | 39.60% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 100 | 6.45% | 3280 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3081 | 71.30% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | | | | | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 24 | 0.74% | 3270 | 3246 | 28.40% | 热卷(HC2605) | 71 | 55.40% | 铁矿石 (12605) | 832 | 761 | 折算价:6 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 12月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4260元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4220元/ 吨，目前基差在40元/吨，走强11元/吨，基差处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工 率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将 关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基 本稳定。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一 步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上， ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 757.0 | 769.0 | -12.0 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 733.0 | 745.0 | -12.0 | I09-I01 | -47.0 | -42.5 | -4.5 | | I01 | 780.0 | 787.5 | -7.5 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2.2 基差：图表 p 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2025-03 2025-05 202 ...

数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的墓差水平排序 免责声明 体系统中的德总统歌语书都"就对影情模以同认为可以的记公开资料，但"发剧的位巡信亲的演响也没完整性不用任何保证。本报告演剧场馆员《志经不同说点。见解及分行方法，并不代表厂发授逝度则同时和放立场，在印情况下，报告的演劇的剧 或所难这的舰好不得动团团最好买卖的出价南你价，我没看看她比很，见谁自但。不表陆高密表这些却"就能的新定都"几到《专业人士」 版权队"发掘的所有，来经广觉脱贫声面段仅，但凡人不得的年都是近行后回到女就该下。复制。知引用、消费，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉得出处少了 发期货"。 | 基差 | 基差率 | 留注 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 历史分位数 | 期货价格 | 现货参考 | 1.11% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 60 | 62.00% | 5478 | 5418 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].