宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】2025 年杰克逊霍尔年会点评 美联储或九月降息，但或不是连续降息 主要观点 什么是杰克逊霍尔央行年会？ 杰克逊霍尔年会是堪萨斯联储每年 8 月份在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔市举行的年 度经济政策研讨会。主要国家的央行行长历来喜欢在年会上以主旨演讲的方式 宣布货币政策框架调整或转向信号，尤其是美联储主席。从近年来看，鲍威尔 在 2020 年宣布平均通胀目标制、2021 年重申暂时性通胀观点、2022 年坚定抗 通胀决心、2023 年讨论去通胀进程并坚定紧缩立场、2024 年从高利率转向降 息周期。再往前回顾，2010-12 年伯南克对非常规货币政策的暗示，耶伦在 2014 年表露货币政策转向的态度，2015 年费希尔释放美联储将加息的信号。 今年鲍威尔演讲重点之短期政策展望：态度转鸽，降息来临 1、就业下行风险增加。虽然劳动力市场似乎处于平衡状态，但这是一种"供 需显著放缓"造成的"奇怪平衡"，即劳动力供应随着需求而疲软，急剧降低 了保持失业率不变所需的"盈亏平衡"创造就业机会的速度。这意味着就业下 行风险正在上升，风险一旦兑现，可能导致"大幅增加裁员和失业率上升"。 2 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down by 7 basis points, likely due to dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Major global stock markets saw mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6% [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively, and gold prices increased by 1.1% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance due to increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks [4] - The Fed's July meeting minutes suggested that officials believe interest rates are close to neutral, and maintaining the current stance is appropriate [4] - The Bank of Japan approved the first domestic yen stablecoin, JPYC, supporting financial technology innovation [4] US Economic Dynamics - The US housing market remains weak, with July new housing starts showing a year-on-year increase primarily due to a low base from the previous year [8] - The NAHB housing market index slightly decreased to 32, remaining in negative territory for 16 consecutive months [8] - The US has added 407 steel and aluminum products to its tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, which may increase procurement costs for downstream manufacturing companies [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% GDP growth in Q2 and a July CPI annual rate of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target [19] - Japan's long-term bond yields have risen, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.7%, the highest since 1999, driven by inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal expansion [19]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve consensus on a September interest rate cut appears to be largely reached, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction[3] - Powell's speech highlighted the dual risks of a declining labor market and rising inflation, indicating a need for policy adjustment[2] - The labor market is showing signs of increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates, while tariffs are contributing to inflationary pressures[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's monetary policy framework is being adjusted to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, balancing monetary policy goals[4] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement aligns with current high inflation characteristics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach[4] - The Fed will act based on economic outlook and risk balance, maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the market is expected to experience a short-term boost in risk sentiment, with positive reactions in U.S. equities[5] - The likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025 is anticipated, but caution remains due to the delayed effects of tariffs on inflation[5] - Market indicators showed significant gains in U.S. stocks, a decline in bond yields, and an increase in gold prices following the speech[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts soon due to rising downside risks to employment and diminished upside risks to inflation, as indicated by Powell during the Jackson Hole meeting [2][3]. Employment and Inflation - Employment growth is slowing, indicating a decrease in job creation opportunities, while GDP growth has also decelerated in the first half of the year, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. - Inflation is approaching the Fed's target, with tariffs expected to have a gradual and uncertain impact on prices. There is a lack of sustained upward pressure on inflation due to downward pressure in the labor market, which reduces the likelihood of a wage-inflation spiral [3]. Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Fed has revised its monetary policy framework to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, allowing for adjustments without waiting for inflation to remain below 2% for an extended period. This change acknowledges the weakening labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The new framework removes references to the effective lower bound as a decisive economic characteristic, reflecting the current low interest rate environment and the potential for more frequent constraints on the federal funds rate [6]. - The Fed has shifted its view on maximum employment, now considering it as the highest level of employment that can be sustained in a context of price stability, rather than focusing on employment shortfalls [7]. Long-term Inflation and Employment Goals - The Fed maintains that a 2% inflation rate, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is most consistent with its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability. Long-term inflation expectations should remain anchored at this level to enhance the Fed's ability to achieve maximum employment [8]. - The Fed's approach to monetary policy will balance the degree of deviation from its employment and inflation targets, considering the time required for both to return to target levels [8].

当前经济形势与短期货币政策展望 一年前我站在这里时，美国经济正处于拐点。当时我们的政策利率已维持在5.25%-5.5%区间逾一年，这 种限制性政策立场对抑制通胀、推动总需求与总供给实现可持续平衡至关重要。彼时通胀已大幅接近目 标，劳动力市场也从此前的过热状态降温，通胀上行风险有所减弱。但失业率却上升了近1个百分点 ——从历史数据看，这种幅度的失业率上升通常只在衰退期间出现。在随后的三次联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议中，我们重新调整了政策立场，为过去一年劳动力市场在充分就业附近维持平衡奠定了 基础。 今年，经济面临新的挑战：对主要贸易伙伴加征的大幅关税正在重塑全球贸易体系；收紧的移民政策导 致劳动力增长突然放缓；长期来看，税收、支出与监管政策的调整也可能对经济增长与生产率产生重要 影响。这些政策最终会如何落地、对经济的长期影响将是什么，目前仍存在极大不确定性。 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策大幅调整的背景下展现出韧性。从美联储的双重使命目标（充分就业与 物价稳定）来看，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平，通胀虽仍略高于目标，但已较疫情后的峰值大幅回 落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 贸易与移民政策的变化正 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is set to commence, with a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for August 22, focusing on economic outlook and monetary policy framework review [1][3] - Powell's speech is expected to discuss potential adjustments to the Federal Open Market Committee's consensus statement, possibly reversing some changes made in 2020 and returning to a flexible inflation targeting strategy [1][3] - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will participate in a closing panel discussion on August 23, which is anticipated to closely align with the conference's themes [2][3] Group 2 - The conference's main theme is "Transforming Labor Markets: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," which will guide the research presentations, although Powell's speech may focus more on current policy issues [3] - Media interviews will play a crucial role in disseminating policy information, with approximately five Federal Reserve officials expected to participate in interviews on August 22, following Powell's speech [4] - Historical data indicates that interviews with central bank officials often provide more immediate insights into policy direction compared to academic discussions, highlighting their market impact [4]

全球央行年度盛会——杰克逊霍尔央行年会即将拉开帷幕！高盛重磅出品"杰克逊霍尔央行年会"观会指 南，重点关注会议日程安排的三大关键时点和鲍威尔演讲和场外参会官员的媒体访谈。 8月18日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中称，全球央行年度盛会杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会即 将开幕，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间8月22日晚10时发表关键主旨演讲，市场预期他将就当前经济 展望和美联储货币政策框架审查发声，这一表态可能为今年余下时间的货币政策走向定调。 鲍威尔此次演讲题为"经济展望与框架审查"，将讨论美联储货币政策框架审查内容。据高盛分析，联邦 公开市场委员会可能对其共识声明进行调整，至少部分逆转2020年的变化，并可能回到灵活通胀目标制 作为主要策略。上次框架审查结果正是2020年在杰克逊霍尔公布。 欧央行行长拉加德和英国央行行长贝利将参与8月23日凌晨的闭幕小组讨论。由于会议大部分内容不对 外直播，约五位美联储官员预计将在8月22日接受媒体采访，成为市场获取政策信息的重要途径。 历史数据显示，这一被视为除利率决议外最重要的全球央行政策风向标会议，历史上每每推动汇率波动 显著超越8月其他时段。 核心日程安排：三大关键时点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing a cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions - Current economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high, with the Fed's language showing no significant changes from May [1][2]. - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential economic issues arising from prolonged high interest rates, especially in the context of complex global trade dynamics and tariff policies [2][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a flexible approach to future monetary policy, closely monitoring tariff policies and inflation data as key determinants [2][3]. - Recent economic data suggests a potential for rate cuts, with May's CPI showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating moderate inflation pressures [2][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but recent non-farm payroll data showed job additions below expectations, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2][3]. - The ADP report indicated the lowest job additions in two years for May, further highlighting labor market concerns [2]. Communication Strategy - The Fed's communication strategy reflects a tendency to maintain a hawkish tone while allowing for policy flexibility, particularly in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [3][4]. - Research indicates that central banks tend to adopt conditional and scenario-based communication during high uncertainty, which helps maintain market confidence and policy flexibility [3]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed may shift its focus from inflation control to growth support, especially if inflation expectations can be effectively managed [4][5]. - A potential transition to a more flexible inflation targeting framework could indicate an increased tolerance for inflation above 2%, suggesting greater policy flexibility [5]. - Projections indicate that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026, with an expected reduction of 75-100 basis points throughout 2025 [1][5].

Group 1: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia reported a significant revenue increase for the latest fiscal quarter, with revenue reaching $44.04 billion, a 69% year-over-year growth, slightly above market expectations of $43.31 billion [13] - The net profit for Nvidia also saw a year-over-year increase of 26%, amounting to $18.8 billion [13] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $0.96, surpassing the market expectation of $0.93 [13] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by strong demand in AI solutions and accelerated computing within its computing and networking platforms [15] - However, gross margin faced pressure due to a $4.5 billion impairment related to H20 product inventory and procurement obligations, leading to a decline in both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter margins [15] Group 2: US Stock Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.58% to 42,098.7 points, the S&P 500 down 0.56% to 5,888.55 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.51% to 19,100.94 points [3][5] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with the "Big Seven" tech index down 0.44%. Notable declines included Tesla down 1.65%, Microsoft down 0.72%, and Amazon down 0.63% [8] - Chinese concept stocks also saw a majority decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.71% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index down 2.62% [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that the market expects two to three interest rate cuts this year, reflecting a consensus among survey respondents [17] - The minutes highlighted the need for a flexible monetary policy strategy that can adapt to various economic conditions, suggesting a robust approach to inflation targeting [17] - The report noted a significant steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with short-term yields decreasing by approximately 20 basis points while long-term yields generally increased [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials to maintain the current interest rate policy due to rising economic uncertainty, reflecting a cautious approach towards inflation and employment risks [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time, citing sufficient space to wait for clearer signals regarding inflation and economic outlook [1] - Economists believe that tariffs will likely increase inflation and suppress economic growth, with the Fed staff lowering growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - The Fed staff predicts a significant weakening in the labor market, with unemployment expected to rise above the "natural rate" this year and remain high until 2027 [2] - Inflation expectations have become a focal point for policymakers, with nearly all participants acknowledging the risk of more persistent inflation than previously anticipated [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The minutes indicate ongoing discussions regarding the periodic evaluation of the monetary policy framework, with a potential shift towards a "flexible inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% temporarily without compensating for past deviations [2]