Group 1: New Productive Forces - Semiconductor/GPU: Companies like Wallen Technology (upcoming IPO with 800 million orders) and Moore Threads (full-function GPU roadmap) are positioned to benefit from the explosive demand for AI computing power and the production of 2nm chips, which will drive industry upgrades and address critical supply chain issues [2] - Humanoid Robots: Companies such as Zhongyuan Neipei (collaborating with Ningbo Puzhi on core robot components) are entering the market as embodied intelligence accelerates, with the potential for large-scale industrial production following positive endorsements from figures like Elon Musk [2] - Controlled Nuclear Fusion/Quantum Technology: Focus on upstream material and equipment suppliers in these key areas supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," which presents a trillion-level market opportunity due to technological breakthroughs [2] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Cultural and Tourism Consumption: Companies like Shaanxi Tourism (new stock subscription benefiting from tourism recovery) are expected to gain from the winter tourism market's warming and the lifting of firework bans, which will boost festive consumption [2] - Quality Consumer Goods: Export-oriented consumer companies are seeing a clear trend of domestic brands expanding overseas, supported by domestic demand policies that enhance profitability [2] Group 3: Profit Recovery - Manufacturing/Resource Products: Companies such as China Shenhua (asset restructuring and full coal and chemical industry chain) and Jinshi Resources (extending into fine fluorochemical downstream) are positioned to benefit from supply-demand optimization and stabilizing commodity prices, leading to a rebound in corporate profits [4] - Logistics/Infrastructure: Companies like Dongfang Zhizao (focused on smart logistics after a change in control) and Qingdao Port (expanding terminal capacity) are set to benefit from government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth and enhancing logistics efficiency [4]

12月19日，港股开盘向好，恒指高开0.53%，国企指数高开0.58%，恒生科技指数高开0.81%。热门ETF 方面，恒生ETF（159920）、恒生国企ETF（159850）早盘持续攀升，现均涨超1%。 消息面上，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创2021年以来新低。通胀超预期放缓，强化了市场对美联 储明年降息的预期。交易员目前普遍预计2026年将降息两次、共50个基点，其中3月启动降息的概率已 大幅提升。 中信建投认为，从大周期看，港股本轮牛市"已行至中段位置"。流动性周期自2023年全球央行开启降息 后持续领先，估值水平在修复后已达历史中上分位，恒生指数PE在10-11之间震荡。然而，港股"处于盈 利修复启动初期"——港股整体的盈利修复斜率预计较为平缓，目前主要的盈利修复集中在结构性景气 板块，整个港股盈利修复仍处于早期启动阶段。 值得关注的标的： 港股核心宽基：恒生ETF（159920）； AI+平台经济：恒生科技指数ETF（513180）； 聚焦港股中国企业发展：恒生国企ETF（159850）。 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。 我们持续看好金属包装行业行业格局迎来重塑，头部企业有望逐步从过去抢份额转向谋利润。预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为13.46/13.14/14.89亿元（与前值一致），同比+70%/-2%/+13%，当前市值对应 26 年估值约12X，维持"买入"评级。 持续优化资产结构，聚焦高质量产能建设 Rexam Limited 为美国金属包装巨头波尔的下属公司，2024 年净利润179万欧元，25H1 净利润增至493 万欧元，业绩稳步增长。波尔与奥瑞金双方此前已有多次业务合作，若本次交易顺利实施，将有利于优 化公司资产结构，提高资产运营效率，降低管理成本。同时通过本次交易，公司和波尔的全球战略合作 关系继续深化。预计产生的投资收益超公司最近一期经审计净利润的10%，增厚当期经营业绩。在收购 中粮包装后，为更好发挥协同效应，公司综合存量项目进行取舍，处置/退出非核心或协同度较低资 产、同时引入更高质量产能并行推进。处置非核心资产有利于补充公司现金流，置换高息负债降低杠 杆，并保证一定比例分红。 内销修复+出海构成盈利修复双引擎 二片罐方面，当前正处于年末谈价时点，四季度铝价上行加强成本支 ...

公 华福证券 金属包装 2025 年 12 月 18 日 司 研 究 奥瑞金（002701.SZ） 出售海外资产优化资产结构，深化波尔合作 投资要点： 事件：公司拟出售海外控股子公司部分股权 公 司 动 态 跟 踪 根据公司海外业务发展规划，为优化公司资产结构，提高资产运营效率， 促进公司高质量发展，公司与 RexamLimited 于 2025 年 8 月 26 日签署股权 买卖协议，公司下属控股子公司贝纳香港拟向 RexamLimited 出售其持有的 控股子公司贝纳比利时 80%股权。贝纳比利时整体企业价值为 1.38 亿欧元， 对应 80%股权的基础对价为 1.104 亿欧元，预计调整后交易金额约为 5,000 万欧元至 6,000 万欧元。本次交易股权转让后，RexamLimited 持股 80%股 权，贝纳香港持股 20%股权，贝纳比利时将不再纳入公司合并报表范围。 近日，本次交易已获得德国反垄断审批。 持续优化资产结构，聚焦高质量产能建设 Rexam Limited 为美国金属包装巨头波尔的下属公司，2024 年净利润 179 万欧元，25H1 净利润增至 493 万欧元，业绩稳步增长。波尔与奥 ...

山西证券近日发布煤炭月度供需数据点评：2025年1-11月，原煤累计产量实现44.02亿吨，同比增 1.4%，同比增速边际下滑。11月当月实现4.27亿吨，同比降0.5%，环比增4.93%。25年1-11月固定资产 投资同比降2.6%，其中制造业投资增1.9%、基建投资降1.1%、房地产投资降15.9%。25年1-11月火电累 计增速实现-0.7%；焦炭累计增速实现3.2%；生铁累计增速实现-2.3%；水泥累计增速实现-6.9%；11月 火电增速实现4.2%；焦炭增速实现2.3%；生铁增速实现-8.7%；水泥增速实现-8.2%。 价格：11月煤炭价格环比超预期上涨。25年以来虽然山西优混5500动力煤、京唐港主焦煤、天津港二级 冶金焦均价有所调整，但11月当月三个品种均价环比均有不同程度上涨。11月各品种环比增幅动力煤＞ 焦炭炼＞焦煤。 点评与投资建议： 11月煤价由涨转跌。11月大部分时间煤价延续10月份的上涨趋势，核心逻辑为电厂补库。在下游电厂完 成补库后，煤价旺季有所回落。从价格季节分布来看，2025年和2024年以及2023年的煤价季节性走势规 律一致，均呈现出"淡季不淡"和"旺季不旺"。前期价格超预 ...

股指期货|年度报告 分析师： 项麒睿 心驱动力在于"抢出口"预期带来的充裕流动性。回顾 2025 年，市场整体 确实呈现"N"型走势，并且突破震荡格局，但也存在一些因素超出了我们 年初的预期：一方面，"抢出口"趋势降温后，我国出口展现了超预期的 强劲韧性，另一方面，企业盈利的显著修复时点也比预想中有所后移。 展望 2026 年，市场逻辑预计将发生关键转换，从流动性驱动转向盈利 修复驱动。国内"建设强大国内市场"的战略调整与"反内卷"政策，正 致力于从根源上改善内需与通缩预期。多项领先指标共同预示 PPI 有望步 入上行通道，企业利润修复可期，这将为市场奠定基本面基石并推动估值 消化，但修复强度或将弱于 2021 年。与此同时，尽管上半年出口可能面临 高基数压力，但经常性账户仍将呈现较强韧性，低利率环境下的"存款搬 家"趋势，以及美元信用弱化背景下跨境资金压力的缓和，有望继续营造 相对友善的资金环境。随着驱动力的切换，盈利确定性高、估值具备吸引 力的大盘价值风格短期来看优势凸显，市场风格短期或延续再平衡。中长 期来看，盈利修复机遇将成为 2026 年 A 股市场的关键主线。 相关研究报告： 盈风聚势启新程 证监 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved multiple historical records in 2025, with a significant recovery in market confidence driven by technology and new consumption [2][14] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan in June 2025, and trading volume reached a historical high in August, indicating deep recovery in market participation and confidence [14] - The rise of new consumption, exemplified by successful products like Labubu and the global box office success of "Nezha 2," injected new growth momentum into the consumption sector [14] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, the market experienced fluctuations, particularly in the technology sector, due to both external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and internal profit-taking [15] - Despite short-term volatility, the core narrative supporting market optimism remains unchanged, with expectations of a reasonably ample domestic liquidity environment and gradual recovery in corporate earnings [15] Group 3 - The market style in 2026 is expected to become more balanced and refined, moving away from being dominated by a single style [16] - The investment focus is anticipated to shift towards AI applications, with a transition from infrastructure to actual applications and commercialization [16] - Companies with solid performance in AI applications, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are likely to attract market attention due to their high growth potential [16] Group 4 - From a financial perspective, 2026 may exhibit characteristics of "profit handover," with key areas of focus including the "computing power-storage-power-manufacturing" chain and the commercialization of application endpoints [17] - Monitoring order and profit recovery progress will be crucial, alongside attention to supply-side reforms and capital market optimizations [17] Group 5 - The key investment factor in 2026 is expected to be the ability to deliver on fundamental performance, with a shift in market scrutiny towards the quality of earnings growth and sustainability of business models [18] - Companies with core technologies and clear commercialization paths in sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing are likely to stand out [18] Group 6 - Positive factors include ongoing anti-involution policies improving the corporate profit environment and a long-term trend of asset allocation towards equity markets, potentially leading to substantial incremental capital [19] - The upward trend in industries like AI, semiconductors, and smart vehicles may provide clear investment lines [19] Group 7 - Opportunities are expected to arise in new consumption areas, particularly those integrating AI technology, such as intelligent companionship and interactive entertainment [21] - The AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics driven by AI innovations are anticipated to see significant growth, alongside the international expansion of healthcare sectors [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and overseas macro - liquidity is expected to maintain a resonant and loose state, with sufficient market capital. The stock market has become an important outlet for funds, and the liquidity support for the stock market will be further strengthened. The securitization rate increase will be one of the core drivers [6]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the profit repair progress in the second stage of the bull market. The profit bottom of the entire A - share market is expected to appear at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, and the market may shift from the previous structural differentiation to full - scale spread, driving the four major indexes upward. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes are expected to rise steadily, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may have stronger performance - driven market conditions [6]. - Under the guidance of the capital market policies promoted by the new "Nine - National - Point Plan", the stock index market will tend to the mid - and large - cap style in the long term. In 2026, the market driven by profit and industry policies will focus on the cycle and technology sectors, and the performance of the CSI 500 index will be more prominent [7]. Summary by Directory I. Internal and External Liquidity Remains Abundant 1. The US is Expected to Continue Cutting Interest Rates - The US labor market is weak, with indicators such as the continuous rise in the number of initial jobless claims and a peak in corporate lay - offs in October 2025. The unemployment rate of high - skilled groups has reached a new high since 2022 [12]. - The deterioration of the labor market has strengthened the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current round of interest rate cuts may last until the end of 2026, with the target rate possibly falling below 1%, and the cumulative rate cut may exceed 300 basis points [13]. 2. Domestic Liquidity Remains Ample - The domestic economy faces pressure in investment, export, and consumption, but still maintains a stable and progressive overall trend. New productive forces are growing, and the necessity of continuing loose monetary and active fiscal policies in 2026 is more prominent [17]. - The central bank has ensured reasonable and ample liquidity through various tools. The policy interest rate has remained stable, and the market interest rate has run at a low level. The M1 - M2 scissors - gap has continued to narrow, indicating an improvement in the activation of funds [23]. 3. The Ranking of Stock Index Investment Rises - The yields of traditional assets such as bonds and real estate have declined, while the performance of the equity market has been excellent. The gap in yields between traditional and equity assets has widened [26]. - Policy guidance, such as encouraging insurance funds to increase equity allocation and optimizing the investment scope of public funds, has accelerated the flow of funds into the equity market. Various types of funds are increasing their equity market allocation [27]. II. Focus on Profits in the Second Stage of the Bull Market 1. System Optimization Consolidates the Foundation for a Long - Term Bull Market - The new "Nine - National - Point Plan" in 2024 is a milestone for the capital market to turn to fundamental investment. In 2025, the regulatory authorities further optimized the system in terms of investment and financing reform, market stability, and opening - up [48]. 2. The Profit Inflection Point is Approaching - China's economic growth is expected to remain at around 4% in 2026, providing support for the capital market. The market is transitioning from a liquidity - driven to a fundamentals - driven stage, and corporate profit repair is the core concern [53]. - The prices of upstream industrial products and inflation levels are key factors. Metal prices have strengthened, and PPI is expected to enter a mild repair channel in 2026. The profit repair of the cycle sector is highly certain [54]. - The profit of the entire A - share market (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemical sectors) is expected to bottom out at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may be stronger [62]. 3. Stock Index Investment Tends Towards Large - Cap Indexes - The "Buffett Indicator" of the A - share market shows that there is still room for the securitization rate to increase. The market investment style is tilting towards large - cap stocks, and the performance of the CSI 500 index may be more prominent in 2026 [68].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 20, with major indices falling, indicating a short-term struggle around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external and internal factors affecting technology valuations [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% to 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76% to 12980.82 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.12% to 3042.34 points [1] - Over 3800 stocks in the market closed in the red, with total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reaching 17.227 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as coal, oil, tourism, food and beverage, agriculture, and semiconductors saw declines, while the banking sector performed positively [1] - Active sectors included lithium mining, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and PCB concepts [1] Investment Outlook - According to Huaxin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a phase of oscillation around the 4000-point level, with three main factors contributing to market volatility: the rebound of the external dollar index, accumulation of profit-taking in technology stocks, and disappointing earnings reports from some tech companies [1] - Key indicators suggest a short-term consolidation signal, but no peak signals have been observed, indicating that the bull market is still in its mid-stage [1] - The market is expected to remain volatile in November, with a focus on low-position rebounds, earnings recovery, and technology policy themes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement logic, capital market reforms, and enhanced economic transformation dynamics [4]. Market Performance - On November 7, A-share indices experienced a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51%. The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1]. - Notable sectors included lithium battery electrolyte and phosphorus chemicals, with stocks like Fujian Development and Dongyue Silicon Material hitting the daily limit [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The robotics sector faced declines, with companies like Lixing Co. and Zhejiang Rongtai experiencing significant drops [3]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key investment area, focusing on self-controlled growth in areas such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI applications [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The capital market is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms, which enhance its investment appeal and resilience against risks [4]. - Analysts predict that the earnings recovery cycle may begin in the first half of 2026, transitioning from an "asset revaluation" phase to a "profit recovery" phase [5]. Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest focusing on four main investment lines: technology growth, PPI improvement, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [6]. - Emphasis is placed on new energy strategies, particularly in emerging fields like new energy storage, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [7].