Group 1: Market Transition and Outlook - A-share listed companies are transitioning from domestic-focused enterprises to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift in China's capital market from emerging to mature status [1][4] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Chinese companies are expected to enhance their position in the global value chain, converting share advantages into pricing power, which forms the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market in A-shares [1][4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - China's economy is anticipated to continue a recovery trend, with growth projected at around 5% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, potentially showing a pattern of lower growth in the first half and higher growth in the latter half of 2026 [2] - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit ratio around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Focus Areas - The investment strategy for 2026 should focus on three main lines: 1. The re-evaluation of pricing power in China's manufacturing sector, with an emphasis on industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [6] 2. The deepening of enterprises' international expansion, particularly in sectors such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [6] 3. The continuation of the technology market, with a focus on breakthroughs in AI commercialization and related hardware and applications [6] Group 4: Market Liquidity and Asset Allocation - The capital market is expected to see a continued influx of absolute return funds, contributing to a long-term downward trend in the volatility of broad-based A-share indices [6] - In terms of asset allocation, the global macro environment is generally accommodative, with expectations of a mild appreciation of the RMB and ongoing attractiveness of gold as a long-term investment asset [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector is considered low, but short-term cost-performance issues have been sufficiently digested, suggesting a potential new round of technology market rally driven by industrial catalysts [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Spring 2026 is anticipated to be a phase peak for the A-share market, facing three challenges: 1) A critical verification period for demand-side dynamics may arise, where supply growth returns to low levels, potentially improving supply-demand balance, but weak demand could delay the supply-demand turning point [1] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is expected to be "delayed" rather than "disproved," with a further strengthening of the global easing framework, leading to a sequential recovery of the "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" in the A-share market [1] - The emergence of new structural highlights may require time, as the decisive catalysts for the domestic technology industry trends and the verification period for anti-involution effects will take time to materialize, suggesting that Spring 2026 may still lack new leading themes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector may reach extremely low levels by Spring 2026, reminiscent of the end of 2013 for the ChiNext and the end of 2019 for the food and beverage sector, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase for the market [1] - After a short-term adjustment, the technology-led market rally is expected to continue into Q4 2025, with Spring 2026 likely being a phase peak but not the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current comprehensive bull market [1] - The conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to become increasingly sufficient over time, indicating further depth in the bull market ahead [1]

Market Performance - On October 13, the market experienced a significant decline with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion, down approximately 140 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The semiconductor and new energy sectors showed weakness, while non-tech sectors like building materials and coal performed better[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, closing below 3900 points, with the Shenzhen Component down 2.70% and the ChiNext Index down 4.55% on October 10[3] Sector Analysis - The adjustment in the tech sector is expected to create a capital spillover effect, leading to potential gains in non-tech sectors such as non-bank financials and chemicals[1] - Major outflows were noted in the semiconductor, battery, and software development sectors, while inflows were seen in grid equipment, infrastructure, and securities[4] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Civil Affairs announced a first batch of elderly care service subsidies amounting to 1.16 billion yuan, aimed at supporting elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities[5] - The World Trade Organization revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 from -0.2% to 2.4%, but lowered the 2026 forecast from 2.5% to 0.5% due to anticipated tariff impacts[7] Investment Trends - Public funds have shown increased enthusiasm for participating in private placements, with total subscriptions exceeding 30 billion yuan this year, surpassing last year's total[13] - Private equity firms remain optimistic about market continuity but advise caution regarding valuation pressures on certain tech stocks[14]

Core Viewpoint - The optimism in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for the fourth quarter of 2025 is driven by the continuous inflow of overseas funds and the relocation of resident deposits, with a focus on technology stocks, new consumption, the internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment areas [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Support - Fund managers express confidence in the market due to supportive policies and the influx of new capital, with the A-share index breaking a ten-year high, indicating a return to reasonable pricing [2][4]. - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is stabilizing the economy, while regulatory measures are encouraging long-term capital inflow and stabilizing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Strategies - The technology sector is highlighted as a leading driver of market momentum, with breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption creating new growth opportunities [3][5]. - Fund companies recommend focusing on sectors with strong certainty, particularly technology stocks, new consumption, the internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Inflow and Market Dynamics - There has been an acceleration in the supply of new capital, with institutional investors increasing equity allocations and retail investor sentiment turning positive, leading to heightened trading activity [3][4]. - The shift in capital dynamics, with a focus on industry and thematic ETFs, indicates a robust market environment, supported by the recovery of corporate earnings and improved liquidity conditions [3][6]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is viewed as having good investment value, particularly in new consumption and technology sectors, with expectations of earnings recovery and liquidity improvement [6][7]. - The potential for foreign capital inflow, driven by favorable conditions such as U.S. interest rate cuts, is expected to provide additional support for the Hong Kong stock market [6][7].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-23 金融市场重磅发声，科技行情有望延续 市场分析 高层重磅发声。国内方面，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。央行行长潘功胜介绍，截 至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产近470万亿元，位居世界第一；股票、债券市场规模位居世界第二；外汇储备规 模连续20年位居世界第一。金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍，目前银行业保险业总资产超过500万亿元，5年来年均 增长9%；信托、理财、保险资管机构管理资产近100万亿元；"白名单"项目贷款超过7万亿元，支持近2000万套住 房建设交付。证监会主席吴清介绍，资本市场含"科"量进一步提升，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4；截至8月 底，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%，外资持有A股市值3.4万亿元。 外汇局局长朱鹤新介绍，7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元。海外方面，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来进一步降息的空间有限。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指涨0.22%收于3828.58点，创业板指涨0. ...

Group 1 - The gaming industry is undergoing significant marginal changes, shifting from "one-off skin products" to "long-cycle projects," leading to an increase in cash flow duration [1] - AI is reforming the business operation models and content of games, which may significantly enhance the return on equity (ROE) for game investments [1] - Changes in consumer habits are moving from material consumption to emotional consumption, impacting performance [1] Group 2 - The long-term trend for the market remains optimistic, with a bullish mindset and room for upward valuation based on current securities rates [2] - The market structure is characterized by a "dual-driven" approach, with strong elasticity provided by growth categories under global technology collaboration and a recovery in cyclical and pro-cyclical trading [2] - The focus should be on growth sectors, particularly in a high-risk appetite market, where growth is more likely to yield excess returns [2] Group 3 - In the tech market, hardware leads while software follows, with gaming being a highly elastic category within the software domain [3] - The gaming industry's business model is marked by high investment, high risk, high return, and long cycles, reflecting a pattern seen in past tech revolutions [3] Group 4 - Gaming is compared to the innovative pharmaceutical industry due to similarities in business models, including high investment and long revenue cycles [4] - Both sectors exhibit high second-order profit derivatives during their revenue realization phases, with significant growth potential once they enter harvest periods [4] - However, gaming currently lacks strong catalysts compared to innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to a more moderate growth trajectory [4]

Core Conclusion - The current technology market is experiencing a fourth wave, which has reached a point of crowding risk, and after a period of consolidation, a fifth wave is anticipated [2][3]. Historical Comparison - The technology index has risen nearly 60% over approximately 100 trading days since the adjustment in April 2025, which is comparable to previous growth phases [4]. - Historical data shows that previous growth phases in the technology sector typically lasted around 70 trading days with similar average gains of about 60% [4]. - Adjustments before the initiation of the next wave typically take 30-40 trading days, with pullbacks ranging from 15% to 30% [4]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - As of the end of August, the technology sector accounted for 40.7% of total trading volume, surpassing the previous high of 38.5% in October 2024 [8]. - The average turnover rate for TMT stocks in August was 6.3%, close to the levels seen in early 2019 and 2020 [8]. - The financing balance for the technology sector reached 28.1% by the end of August, exceeding the previous high of 27.9% at the beginning of the year [8]. Future Outlook - The current AI market has seen significant growth since the low point on April 9, with sector gains ranging from 50% to 100% [11]. - There is an expectation for a consolidation phase before the emergence of the fifth wave, with a focus on technology applications such as smart driving, fintech, and robotics [11].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The indicator is designed to track resident capital flows at a high frequency, combining data from three perspectives: ETFs dominated by individual investors, trading activity at specific brokerage branches, and Baidu search indices[1][11][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **ETF Perspective**: - Identify A-share equity ETFs with individual ownership ≥70% based on semi-annual and annual reports (data updated in March and August each year) - Calculate daily ETF fund flows using the formula: $ \text{Daily Fund Flow} = \text{Daily Change in ETF Shares} \times \text{VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)} $ - Aggregate the fund flows of all selected ETFs to derive the indicator for individual investor-dominated ETFs[12] 2. **Brokerage Branch Perspective**: - Use trading data from specific branches of Orient Securities in Lhasa, which are predominantly used by retail investors - Calculate the daily trading volume of these branches as a percentage of the total trading volume of the Wind All-A Index to represent resident activity[13][17] 3. **Baidu Index Perspective**: - Select three keywords: "stock account opening," "bull market," and "bottom fishing" - Use their rolling 1-month moving averages to measure resident sentiment in different market scenarios[21] 4. **Comprehensive Indicator Construction**: - Smooth all three sub-indicators using a 1-month moving average - Calculate the rolling 6-month percentile rank for each sub-indicator - Combine the percentile ranks of the three Baidu keywords equally to form the Baidu sub-indicator - Combine the ETF, brokerage, and Baidu sub-indicators equally to form the final Resident Capital Activity Indicator, with values ranging from 0 to 1[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator aligns well with monthly A-share account opening data, demonstrating its effectiveness as a high-frequency proxy for resident capital flows. It also exhibits timing capabilities, similar to the "fear-greed index," by signaling potential short-term market risks when resident sentiment overheats[27][28] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Wind All-A Index Return**: 75% (from February 2019 to August 2025) - **Timing Strategy Return**: 167% (based on the rule: stay fully invested unless the indicator exceeds 70% in the past 10 days, in which case switch to cash)[28]

Summary of the Conference Call for Runze Technology Industry Overview - **Technology Sector Valuation Recovery**: After a decade of adjustment, technology stock valuations have become reasonable, with significant comparative advantages over traditional industries, driving market consensus on the tech sector's performance [2][3]. - **Domestic Computing Power Demand**: China's large model training capabilities lag behind the U.S. by approximately one to one and a half generations, necessitating at least a tenfold increase in computing power to catch up. The vast population and industrial scale in China provide a leading market space for inference industries [2][4]. Company Insights - **Runze Technology's Industry Position**: As a leading AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) enterprise, Runze Technology possesses significant advantages in key metrics such as customer base, location, and network nodes, playing a crucial role in AI initiatives [2][6]. - **Business Growth Stability**: The demand in the AI industry chain is robust, leading to increased data center hosting equipment needs. Runze Technology has achieved stable growth through long-term service provision, akin to a snowball effect [2][9]. - **2025 H1 Performance**: The company reported revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 882 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.06% [2][15]. Financial Performance - **Revenue and Profitability**: In the first half of 2025, Runze Technology achieved a revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.31 billion yuan. Operating costs rose by 3.34 billion yuan to 1.263 billion yuan, primarily due to initial costs associated with new data center deliveries [15][16]. - **Asset Growth and Inventory Decline**: Fixed assets surged to 20.2 billion yuan, driven by data center infrastructure construction and expanded self-owned computing power. Inventory decreased from 1.77 billion yuan to 293 million yuan, partly due to high-performance servers being converted for internal use [17]. Technological Advancements - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: Runze Technology has made significant strides in liquid cooling technology, successfully delivering its first fully liquid-cooled data center and expanding the deployment of liquid-cooled cabinets [4][13]. - **AIDC Business Transformation**: The AIDC business has transitioned from one-time inflow to stable, profitable self-computing services, now accounting for over 85% of the business, indicating significant improvements in profitability and stability [4][14]. Market Dynamics - **Supply and Demand in AI DC Business**: The supply-demand relationship in the AI data center business is influenced by energy consumption restrictions in first-tier cities, leading to a market shift towards regions like Ulanqab and Zhongwei [26]. - **Future Expansion Plans**: Runze Technology plans to expand based on customer demand, with new data centers being established in regions such as Hainan, Chongqing, and Gansu [28]. Strategic Outlook - **Acquisition Strategy**: Runze Technology has disclosed its acquisition strategy for the first time in its 2025 annual report, indicating readiness in technology, talent, and financial resources for potential acquisitions [31]. - **Server Leasing Business**: The company is cautious about expanding its server leasing business, prioritizing stability and assessing market opportunities before making significant commitments [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, industry dynamics, and strategic outlook.

Market Overview - A-shares major indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and returning to 3600 points [1] - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) saw an increase of 0.32% in its market price, with a total trading volume of 23.22 million yuan, a 27% increase compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Photovoltaic equipment led the gains, with major stocks such as Daqo New Energy rising over 3%, Sungrow Power Supply increasing by more than 2%, Trina Solar up nearly 2%, and JinkoSolar gaining over 1% [3] - Other notable performers included Sanhua Group rising over 3%, and companies like Bichu Electronics and Lens Technology increasing by more than 2% [3] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has gained momentum, with significant signals released from top-level meetings focusing on the photovoltaic industry [4] - Policies such as "not selling below cost" have led to a shift in pricing strategies within the industry, with prices for N-type raw materials and granular silicon rising by 36% and 31.3% respectively since late June [4] Future Outlook - Analysts expect a recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a return to normalized competition and potential structural reforms [4] - The technology sector is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on areas benefiting from policy support and emerging trends in AI and new industries [4] Investment Opportunities - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) features three main characteristics: cross-market diversification, a focus on strategic emerging industries, and a low entry threshold for investors [5] - The ETF is designed to capture the growth of top technology companies in China, providing a more efficient investment vehicle compared to direct stock investments [5]