来源：证券时报 综合以上观点来看，首先要考虑到我国出口对经济的影响，央行是否会允许人民币汇率破"7"？12月23 日，我国人民币对美元汇率中间价较前一交易日调升49个基点，报价7.0523。可以合理猜测，人民币汇 率升值的趋势可能延续，但速度大概率是缓慢的。其次是基本面是否支持人民币汇率走强？中长期来 看，中央经济工作会议提出坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，若增量政策加持，内需疲软与信贷需求 低迷的状况得以逆转，人民币汇率升值则具备经济基本面支撑。 值得关注的是，人民币升值如何对资本市场形成影响。短期内，股市表现可能会获得提振，使得以人民 币计价的资产出现同向升值，前提是基本面不发生背离。国际投行高盛曾就美股做过一个复盘研究，显 示汇率上涨0.1个百分点，股票估值则提升3%~5%。 此外，人民币升值还可能带来跨境投资的换汇成本增加。比如，港股通、跨境理财通、互认基金等资金 跨境投资，持股期间人民币汇率升值，最终收益率可能会打折扣。 (责任编辑：叶景) 探究2025年人民币汇率的波动，离不开经济基本面的预期和美元走弱的影响。一方面，我国出口强劲， 超出了市场预期，具备经济基本面向好的支撑；另一方面，美元信用走弱 ...

Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]

观点简述： 上周市场延续技术反弹，沪深300指数周涨幅1.28%，上证综指周涨幅0.37%，中证500指数周涨 幅0.94%。市场多数个股上周实际连续4个交易日调整，直至周五在非银板块两大政策利好下出现盘中 拉升。 《 密切观察增量资金持续性 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现，2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至12月7日累计收益 11.85%。 1 本周观点 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 每周思考总第657期 基本面上，美国经济结构分化延续。 国内方面，关于证券与保险资管的行业松绑预期在上周五 因相关发言突然抬升预期，但从经济基本面及债市表现方面并未看到流动性边际显著改善迹象，建议 密切观察后续增量资金行为再定性利好幅度，维持谨慎观察；海外 ...

政治稳定性与地缘局势变化也会对汇率产生冲击。若一国政治局势动荡或面临地缘冲突风险，可能引发 市场对该国经济前景的担忧，导致资本外流，本币汇率波动加剧。此外，市场情绪作为一种短期影响因 素，会通过投资者的买卖行为影响汇率走势，比如市场对某国经济的乐观或悲观预期，可能在短期内推 动汇率出现阶段性变化。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是国内专业的金融信息服务平台，专注于为用户提供 全面、及时的财经资讯及金融知识内容，覆盖宏观经济、金融市场、产业动态等多个领域，致力于通过 专业的信息整合与解读，帮助用户提升对金融市场的认知与理解。 免责声明：本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任 何形式的投资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 经济基本面是影响汇率长期走势的关键因素之一。一国的经济增长速度、就业状况、产业结构等指标， 直接反映了该国经济的整体活力与发展潜力。当经济增长态势良好时，往往会吸引更多海外资本流入， 进而推动本国货币需求增加，汇率面临升值压力；反之，若经济增速放缓或出现衰退迹象，资本可能外 流，导致本币汇率承压。根据2025年 ...

Currency Performance in Asia - In 2025, major Asian currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with the Japanese yen halting a four-year decline against the US dollar, initially rising from 157.7 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to 140.9 yen per dollar by mid-April, before falling to 155.4 yen per dollar by December 1 [1] - The decline in the yen accelerated after the appointment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late October, attributed to his accommodative monetary policy, despite initial gains being driven by a weaker dollar and inflation-induced rate hike expectations in Japan [1] - The South Korean won also stopped its four-year decline but remained at a 16-year low, trading at 1468.63 won per dollar as of December 2 [1] - Other currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit appreciated against the dollar, with increases of 5.4%, over 7.2%, and over 8.2% respectively [1] Renminbi Strength - Since the beginning of 2025, the renminbi has shown strong resilience, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.07 per dollar on December 1, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [2] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attributed to a relatively weak dollar and the stable economic fundamentals in China, which support the currency's revaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund's October report highlighted the resilience of the Asia-Pacific economies in 2025, with economic growth in the first half exceeding expectations despite multiple internal and external challenges [2]

近期研究报告 《高频数据显示经济增速有所放缓， 符合预期》 - 2025.11.25 宏观研究 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-01 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复，非制造业景气度 收缩 核心观点 从 11 月 PMI 指数来看，（1）供需两端温和修复，生产好于需求， 供需失衡问题犹存，制造业景气度环比回升，但仍处于荣枯线以下， 制造业景气度有待改善；（2）价格传导机制有所扭曲，原材料价格坚 挺，且扩张动能有所增强，但产成品出厂价格并未同步上涨，即原材 料涨价不能完全转嫁消费者，价格的市场化传导机制不畅，挤压企业 利润空间。直接表现为，短期 PMI 出厂价格指数与 PPI 增速线性关系 分离，PPI 同比增速保持韧性，或延续修复态势；（3）建筑业景气度 指数有所回升，服务业景气度回落，非制造业景气度跌入荣枯线以下 水平，显示建筑业的上升并未完全对冲服务业景气 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by multiple factors, including policy guidance, economic fundamentals, and external environment changes [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Guidance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been signaling a stronger RMB through the continuous adjustment of the central parity rate, which was set at 7.0796 yuan per dollar, up by 30 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The current exchange rate regulation is aimed at promoting a stable environment for foreign trade enterprises, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index showing moderate upward movement [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The RMB's appreciation is supported by robust economic fundamentals, with exports exceeding expectations and a noticeable recovery in the capital markets since July [1]. - Increased demand for foreign exchange settlements from enterprises has boosted market confidence in the RMB, while cross-border capital flows remain stable and orderly [1]. Group 3: External Environment - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for another rate cut in December, contributing to a limited upward space for the US dollar index [1][2]. - Weakening US economic data, including slowing retail sales growth and signs of a softening labor market, have heightened concerns about the economic outlook, further supporting the RMB's strength [1]. Group 4: Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors are also at play, as the fourth quarter typically sees a peak in foreign exchange settlements, maintaining high corporate settlement intentions [2]. - The ongoing trend of cross-border capital inflows provides additional momentum for the RMB's appreciation [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a steady and strong trend, with limited volatility against the US dollar due to the Fed's rate cut expectations and significant depreciation of the dollar since the beginning of the year [2]. - The RMB's exchange rate is likely to remain stable, exhibiting a reverse fluctuation pattern with the US dollar, with relatively small amplitude [2].

Economic Fundamentals - Economic growth reflected by GDP growth rate influences currency demand and exchange rates, with stable growth attracting international capital and pushing exchange rates up, while slow growth or recession exerts depreciation pressure [1] - Inflation rates affect purchasing power; higher inflation compared to other countries leads to decreased confidence in the currency, resulting in downward pressure on exchange rates [1] - Interest rates are closely linked to exchange rates; higher interest rates attract capital inflow, increasing currency demand and supporting exchange rate appreciation, while lower rates can lead to capital outflow and suppress exchange rate performance [1] Monetary Policy - Central banks use monetary policy as a tool to regulate exchange rates, with the direction and intensity of policy having a direct impact [1] - The revised Foreign Exchange Management Regulations in 2025 enhance the macro-prudential management system, allowing the central bank to stabilize exchange rates through foreign exchange reserves and market operations [1] - Tight monetary policy can enhance currency attractiveness and promote appreciation, while loose policy increases money supply and lowers interest rates, leading to depreciation expectations [1] International Balance of Payments - The balance of payments, particularly the current account, reflects a country's external economic balance; a persistent surplus indicates higher demand for the currency, leading to a strong exchange rate, while a deficit exerts depreciation pressure [2] - Capital and financial accounts show cross-border capital flows; sustained net inflows increase demand for the currency, supporting exchange rate strength, while outflows create pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical stability is crucial for attracting international capital; political turmoil or increased policy uncertainty can lead to capital outflow and currency depreciation [2] - Sudden events like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters can trigger market risk aversion, causing investors to shift to traditional safe-haven currencies, leading to short-term appreciation of those currencies and depreciation of affected currencies [2] Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment and speculative behavior significantly influence short-term exchange rate fluctuations; expectations of currency appreciation can lead to buying pressure, while depreciation expectations can trigger sell-offs [2] - Large-scale speculative trading can amplify short-term volatility, especially in high liquidity conditions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators weakened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy, which suppresses the stock market. The continuous unchanged LPR for six months reflects a prudent monetary policy, with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, in the current environment of multiple vacuums in macro data, performance, and policies, it cannot provide continuous upward momentum, and the stock index will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) rose to 4473.0, up 29.4; the IH main contract (2512) rose to 2959.2, up 10.4; the IC main contract (2512) rose to 6900.0, up 58.0; the IM main contract (2512) rose to 7172.0, up 60.4 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased to 1513.8, up 23.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread increased to 2427.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current Month Differences**: Some seasonal - to - current month differences changed. For example, IF when - season - to - current increased to - 29.0, up 0.2; IH when - season - to - current decreased to - 5.2, down 2.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in different contracts changed. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased to - 24,028.00, up 329.0; the IH top 20 net position decreased to - 10,694.00, down 174.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis decreased to - 17.4, down 4.6; the IH main contract basis decreased to - 9.0, down 2.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover increased slightly, and nearly 4300 stocks rose. The communication and media sectors strengthened significantly, while the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors declined [2]. - **Economic Indicators**: In October, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly compared to the previous values. The fixed - asset investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail sales declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline. In terms of financial data, the decline of M1 growth rate was greater than that of M2, and the M1 - M2 scissors - difference ended the 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump said he would visit China in April next year, which boosted short - term market risk appetite [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales - November 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3]