Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fund dividends continues to rise, with total dividends approaching 90 billion yuan this year, marking a 1.4 times increase compared to the same period last year and reaching a three-year high [1] - Equity funds have shown a significant increase in dividend distribution, with the total dividend amount being nearly seven times that of the same period last year [1] - The trend of increasing dividends has become a consensus among many fund companies, driven by public fund reforms that emphasize investor returns over scale [1] Group 2 - ETFs have emerged as a major contributor to equity fund dividends, accounting for 70% of the total dividend amount in this category this year, with 20 ETFs distributing dividends five times or more [2] - Many high-performing equity funds have also increased their dividend distributions, with over 80% of equity funds that have distributed dividends this year showing positive returns over the past year [2] - The combination of "regular dividends + excess return distribution" is expected to be adopted by more fund companies as market effectiveness improves and economic recovery expectations strengthen [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report (May 12 - May 16, 2025) [1] - Analyst: Du Shufang [1] - Futures Qualification Number: F0230469 [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0000690 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of the negative news of the easing of the China - US tariff war, the market returned to a volatile state. Considering the weak fundamentals and the unchanged easing direction of the central bank, the upward space for short - term interest rates may be limited. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Section This Week's Market Review - Treasury bond futures declined significantly this week, especially in the ultra - long end. At the beginning of the week, bond futures tumbled due to the China - US Geneva Joint Statement on tariff reduction, and then fluctuated slightly downward [3]. - The joint statement on May 12 led to an increase in market expectations for tariff risk mitigation and economic recovery, weakening the hedging demand for long - term treasury bonds and increasing the resistance to further decline in interest rates. However, the China - US trade relationship has not fully recovered, and there are still uncertainties [3]. - In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan but fell short of expectations. The increase was mainly driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds, while the credit demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, but the M1 growth rate remained low, reflecting the increased risk aversion of residents and the capital hedging demand under capital market fluctuations [3]. - In April, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was - 0.1%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.1%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, mainly affected by imported factors such as the decline in international commodity prices [3]. - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (previous value: 12.4%), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03%. The data release caused a slight fluctuation in the bond market. China's exports showed resilience as they did not decline under the influence of US tariff policies [3]. - Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 47.51 billion yuan this week, and the short - term interest rates in the money market remained stable [3]. This Week's Important News Review - In April, the CPI month - on - month changed from a 0.4% decline to a 0.1% increase; year - on - year, it decreased by 0.1%. The core CPI month - on - month changed from flat to a 0.2% increase; year - on - year, it increased by 0.5%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, and the year - on - year decline widened by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% [5]. - From January to April 2025, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [5]. - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.0%); imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year (market expectation: - 6.0%). The trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is adjusting its policy framework to address the high - inflation challenges in the post - pandemic era, hinting that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over [5]. Trend Review - The report presents historical data trends of PPI, PMI, CPI, and GDP, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][15][17] Cash Bond Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24] Basis Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of the CTD bond basis of T2406, TF2406, and TS2406, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][28]