Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on the technology sector for investment opportunities, particularly in growth stocks, as the market index has shown upward momentum [2][6]. - The report outlines a selection of ten key stocks, highlighting their respective industries, market capitalizations, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2026 and 2027 [2][68]. Group 1: Key Stock Recommendations - **Neway Valve (603699.SH)**: A leading global industrial valve manufacturer, benefiting from a surge in LNG and marine engineering sectors, with expected overseas order growth of over 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [11][12]. - **Yongxing Environmental (601033.SH)**: The sole operator of waste incineration in Guangzhou, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 79% and a commitment to high dividends, expecting a 174% increase in free cash flow in 2024 [17][18]. - **Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH)**: Focused on aerospace electronics and unmanned systems, with anticipated high growth driven by the commercial space industry and demand for satellite communication technologies [26][27]. - **Miaokelando (600882.SH)**: Positioned for long-term growth in the dairy sector, with a focus on product innovation and cost management, expecting significant revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [31][32]. - **Laopu Gold (6181.HK)**: A high-end gold jewelry brand with strong revenue growth, projected to achieve 8.51 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, benefiting from the expanding market for traditional gold products [36][38]. - **Jingzhida (688627.SH)**: Engaged in the semiconductor testing equipment sector, with significant market potential and expected strong performance due to key customer orders [42][43]. - **Shensanda A (000032.SZ)**: Positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI infrastructure and applications, with a strong foothold in public data services [47][48]. - **Sanqi Interactive (002555.SZ)**: Anticipating strong performance from new game releases, particularly the upcoming "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World," with high player interest [53][56]. - **CATL (300750.SZ)**: Expected to maintain strong profit growth, with projected net profits of 66.1 billion yuan in 2025, driven by increasing demand for electric vehicle batteries [59][60]. - **Borui Pharmaceutical (688166.SH)**: Forecasted to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with significant potential in the Amylin pipeline, which has attracted substantial investment interest [63][64]. Group 2: Financial Data Overview - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for the ten key stocks, including projected revenues and net profits for 2025 to 2027, highlighting the growth potential across various sectors [68]. - For instance, Neway Valve is expected to generate 74.53 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, with a net profit of 14.49 billion yuan, reflecting strong operational performance [68]. - CATL's projected revenue for 2025 is 472.43 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 66.13 billion yuan, indicating robust growth in the electric vehicle battery market [68].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 稳定币影响初探 >>点击图片查看全文<< 今年5月，美国和中国香港接连就稳定币监管立法，引发市场关注。稳定币之"稳定"在于其作为一种加密货币，通过与其他资产（通常为法定货币） 挂钩来稳定其价格，区别于比特币等价格波动较高的原生加密货币，稳定币用途更多在于行使货"币"作为交换媒介和计价单位的功能。在币值稳定的 前提下，稳定币依托区块链有望使跨境支付更快速、更廉价、更便捷 。稳定币一方面有助于稳固美元储备地位，另一方面当前美元主导的国际货币 体系生变，国际货币体系正在加速重构，若其他国家发行的稳定币并不锚定美元，也可能进一步挑战美元的储备货币地位。稳定币的发展对美元影响 如何仍需要进一步研究和探索。结合中金研究行业组的观点，我们认为稳定币发展可能相关的企业主要包括：银行IT服务商，电信运营商，加密货币 交易所，作为稳定币交易通道的金融机构等。 图表：美元在全球外汇储备中占比有所下降但仍是主导 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 2025.06.22 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 02 策略 Str ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the rare earth market is experiencing a general price increase for oxide products, with separation companies optimistic about future market conditions [1] - Strategic minor metals are expected to see a continuous upward price trend due to resource scarcity and growing demand from the new energy sector, benefiting companies with resource and technological advantages [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry is anticipated to expand its prosperity from precious metals, represented by gold, to industrial metals, represented by copper, supported by a weak dollar and ongoing overseas monetary easing [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry reported a revenue growth of 7.9% year-on-year and a significant net profit increase of 68.2%, while capital expenditure declined by 7.3%, indicating a notable improvement in industry profitability [1] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which tracks representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the A-share market, covering various metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1]

东吴策略 三根阳线后，市场展望 20250625 摘要 市场情绪显著转为乐观，投资者仓位普遍偏低，对 3,500 甚至 3,600 点 抱有期待，但这种情绪转变更多源于仓位结构而非基本面。 上证指数波动率创新低预示着市场波动即将增加，中东局势缓和、美联 储降息预期及阅兵等因素共同推动了近期市场上涨。 金融股在近期上涨中扮演了指数助推器的角色，但其上涨空间可能有限， 后续成长股预计将占据优势，这与弱美元周期逻辑相符。 美元周期对国内市场风格切换产生重要影响，弱美元背景下成长股表现 更佳，需关注美元走势及人民币汇率对结汇数据的影响。 看好成长股行情，金融股的助推作用可能接近尾声，泛科技板块如 AI 硬 件、机器人、固态电池、脑机接口和数字货币等有望轮动表现。 军工板块具备持续性基础，若能突破前高将吸引资金追入，可能贯穿 7 月份行情，建议低仓位者适当增仓，高仓位者继续持有。 创新药和新消费板块短期内表现可能不佳，不建议追逐，而地产和周期 性行业如煤炭、钢铁等处于底部，若有政策催化剂可能迎来上涨。 Q&A 最近市场情绪变化的主要原因是什么？ 最近市场情绪变化主要源于几个因素。首先，上周内地和香港的机构投资者普 遍持 ...

中金研究 2025以来全球风险事件频发，美元作为传统避险资产不但没有升值，反而已经累计回落近10%，引发市场广泛关注。短期汇率预测存在高度不确定 性，其准确度甚至不超过随机游走模型（The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle）[1]。但拉长时间维度看，美元总是在强弱之间循环往复，表现出明显的周期性律 动，而且往往是长周期和大周期。当前美元究竟只是短暂回调，还是处于新一轮大周期的拐点上？本轮周期又有什么不同之处？我们从美元周期的历 史比较入手，识别本轮周期的异常特征，从基本面、政策面和情绪面的三重框架分析美元周期运行规律，并预测美元未来中长期走势。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美元周期的历史回顾与当前特征 自1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来，美元经历了三轮主要升值周期。第一轮出现在1980至1985年， 彼时为遏制通胀，时任美联储主席沃尔克大幅加息， 联邦基金利率一度超过20%，推动美元指数（DXY指数）飙升至164，累计升幅达95%。 第二轮发生在1990年代中后期， 得益于信息技术产业的崛起和全 球化的深入发展，美国经济强劲复苏。1995至2001年间，美元指数累计上涨51%。 图表：2008年至今，本轮美 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The narrative of a weakening dollar has become a common preference among risk-averse investors since Trump's administration, as significant depreciation of the dollar often leads to revaluation of non-dollar assets[1] - The macroeconomic narrative is a key driver of market direction, with the potential loss of reserve currency status being a significant concern, particularly due to the large debt burden of the U.S.[2] - Historical transitions of reserve currencies have presented substantial asset revaluation opportunities, with past examples showing significant depreciation of the current reserve currency relative to successors and precious metals[2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Analysis - The U.S. government debt burden has increased by 14.6% from 2019 to 2023, while household leverage has decreased by 3.1% and non-financial corporate leverage has decreased by 8.6%[3] - The U.S. government debt level was over 100% before the global pandemic, but concerns were minimal; post-pandemic, the debt has risen significantly, reflecting a societal "leverage transfer"[3] - The pressure from maturing U.S. government bonds is expected to peak in Q1 2027, with an estimated maturity amount of $9 to $10 trillion, compounded by a potential fiscal deficit stabilizing above 5%[5] Group 3: Future Projections - The next two years are critical for the U.S. debt cycle transition, influencing fiscal, monetary policies, and the dollar index[6] - Historical patterns indicate that the current dollar depreciation cycle may last until the end of 2027, with a potential initial rapid depreciation followed by a prolonged period of volatility[7] - Risks include extreme U.S. trade policies leading to faster and larger-than-expected dollar depreciation, which could exacerbate global economic slowdowns[7]

证券研究报告 2025.06.11 大类资产 2025 下半年展望：秉韧谋新 李昭 分析员 缪延亮 分析员 杨晓卿 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523050001 SFC CE Ref：BTR923 zhao3.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080525060005 SFC CE Ref：BTS724 yanliang.miao@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080523040004 SFC CE Ref：BRY559 xiaoqing.yang@cicc.com.cn 2025H1 我们建议维持超配黄金，增配中国股票，美股由攻转守，低配全球商品，标配中外债券，取得良好收益（图表 1）。4 月份以来美国关税冲击超预期，宏观环境再次发生明显变化。我们建议资产配置增加韧性，稳中求进，增配黄金、 高股息、中债等安全资产。 关税前景主导市场走势，资产运行体现新规律。美国关税政策是 2025H1 全球大类资产运行的主要矛盾：4 月初关税冲 击超预期，全球资产进入"避险模式"；4 月下旬关税预期好转，市场情绪明显改善。尽管关税在 5 月大幅调降，但美国 实际平均有效税率仍接近 ...

作者：李昭，缪延亮，杨晓卿 ，屈博韬 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025H1我们建议维持超配黄金，增配中国股票，美股由攻转守，低配全球商品，标配中外债券（ 《大类资产2025年展望：时变之应》 ，发布于 2024/11/12），取得良好收益。4月份以来美国关税冲击超预期，宏观环境再次发生明显变化。2025H2我们建议 资产配置增加韧性，稳中求进，增配黄 金、高股息、中债等安全资产；等待时机增配代表新科技浪潮的成长风格股票。 图表1：2025YTD全球大类资产表现：黄金港股领涨，美股商品偏弱，债券表现居中 关税前景主导市场走势，资产运行体现新规律 美国关税政策是2025H1全球大类资产运行的主要矛盾：4月初关税冲击超预期，全球资产进入"避险模式"；4月下旬关税预期好转，市场情绪明显改善。 尽管关税在5月大幅调降，但美国实际平均有效税率仍接近16%，远高于2024年底2.4%的水平，可能对全球贸易与经济产生负面影响。 美国关税政策主观性、随意性偏强，未来演绎仍有很大变数，可能在2025H2继续主导全球市场走向。 图表2：美国有效关税税率仍然接近"斯姆特霍利"关税水平 注：截至2025/6/3 资料来源：Wind，Y ...