Core Viewpoint - The article suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US stocks, underweighting global commodities, and standard allocation to domestic and foreign bonds for the second half of 2025, aiming for resilient asset allocation amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][48]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - As of 2025 YTD, gold and Hong Kong stocks lead in performance, while US stocks and commodities show weakness, with bonds performing moderately [1]. - The US tariff policy has been a major factor influencing global asset performance, with unexpected tariff shocks leading to a risk-off market environment [1][3]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The US effective average tariff rate remains close to 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% level at the end of 2024, which may negatively impact global trade and economy [1][3]. - The subjective and arbitrary nature of US tariff policies introduces significant uncertainty for future market directions [1]. Group 3: Economic Cycles and Asset Behavior - The article identifies three super cycles affecting asset performance: the dollar cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle, with distinct impacts observed during tariff escalations [1][12]. - During tariff escalations, the dollar depreciates, US Treasury yields rise, and gold prices increase significantly [12][24]. Group 4: US Economic Outlook - The US fiscal deficit is projected to shrink in 2025, with a deficit rate potentially decreasing to 5%-6%, which may lead to a lack of economic support [14][49]. - The article anticipates a risk of "second inflation" due to tariff pressures, with the US economy possibly facing stagnation or recession [14][18]. Group 5: AI Revolution and Market Opportunities - The AI revolution is seen as a significant opportunity for stock assets, with potential for increased volatility and upward trends in stock prices [30][32]. - Chinese technology stocks are viewed as undervalued compared to US counterparts, indicating a potential for revaluation amidst the AI wave [32][35]. Group 6: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The article recommends an overweight position in gold, high-dividend stocks, and domestic bonds, while suggesting a standard allocation to US Treasuries and underweighting commodities and US stocks [48]. - The expectation is for a gradual increase in allocation to technology growth stocks as market conditions stabilize [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US equities, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds for the second half of 2025, aiming for resilient asset allocation amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The US tariff policy is identified as the main factor influencing global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with unexpected tariff shocks leading to a risk-off market environment [4][5]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs in May, the effective average tariff rate remains around 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% at the end of 2024, which may negatively impact global trade and economic growth [4][6]. - The article notes that the subjective and arbitrary nature of US tariff policies introduces considerable uncertainty for future market directions [5]. Group 2: Asset Performance Trends - The article highlights a shift in asset performance patterns in 2025 compared to 2018-2020, influenced by three super cycles: the dollar cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle [9][10][11]. - During tariff escalations, the dollar depreciated, US Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, indicating a complex interplay between tariffs and asset classes [9][18]. - Chinese stocks showed resilience during tariff escalations, with growth-style stocks outperforming, suggesting a potential revaluation of Chinese assets [10][41]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The US economic outlook is expected to deteriorate, with fiscal deficits projected to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a recession or stagflation, which could suppress financial asset performance [21][26]. - The article anticipates a decline in the US fiscal deficit rate to around 5%-6% in 2025, with a shift to expansionary fiscal policies expected in 2026 [21][67]. - The potential for a "second inflation" risk remains, driven by tariff pressures despite currently low inflation levels [21][26]. Group 4: Gold and Commodity Outlook - Gold is projected to remain a key beneficiary in the current economic environment, with prices potentially reaching between $3,000 and $5,000 per ounce in the next few years, despite current prices being above equilibrium levels [36][39]. - The article suggests that commodities may be entering a new super cycle driven by AI and green transitions, although short-term demand may remain weak due to global economic slowdowns [51][53]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article recommends an asset allocation strategy that emphasizes gold, high-dividend stocks, and domestic bonds, while suggesting a lower allocation to US equities and commodities [64]. - It advises maintaining a standard allocation in US Treasuries due to uncertainties, while being cautious about the potential for rising interest rates and inflation [64][67]. - The article encourages investors to look for opportunities in technology growth stocks, particularly in the Chinese market, as the AI revolution unfolds [41][49].

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system is undergoing profound changes due to the long-term disorderly expansion of U.S. public debt, the "weaponization" of the dollar during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and various policy proposals during the Trump 2.0 era, which erode the credibility of the dollar as the world's reserve currency [2]. Group 1: Triffin Dilemma Misinterpretations - The "Triffin Dilemma" has evolved into two versions post-Bretton Woods: one concerning the current account and the other regarding "safe assets," both of which contain significant misunderstandings [4][13]. - Misconceptions include confusing net capital with total capital inflows, mixing "earned" and "borrowed" foreign exchange reserves, and conflating bilateral with multilateral capital flows [17][19][20]. - The supply of dollar liquidity is not necessarily linked to the U.S. current account deficit, as the U.S. maintained a current account surplus for about 30 years after becoming the primary reserve currency [14][21]. Group 2: U.S. Stocks as Safe Assets - Overseas funds have shifted from U.S. Treasury bonds to U.S. stocks, leading to the disappearance of the equity risk premium in the S&P 500, indicating that investors now view U.S. stocks as safe assets [5][23]. - This shift is driven by declining safety perceptions of U.S. debt and the stable long-term growth of U.S. stocks, with significant capital inflows into the U.S. stock market [26][30]. Group 3: U.S. Reserve Currency Status - The U.S. is unlikely to relinquish its status as the world's reserve currency due to the substantial benefits it provides, including the international seigniorage revenue [6][32]. - The unique asset-liability structure of the U.S. allows it to benefit from dollar depreciation, effectively transferring payment burdens globally [36][39]. Group 4: Declining Economic Share vs. Rising Financial Dominance - While the U.S. share of the real economy is declining, its share in international finance is increasing, primarily due to the offshore dollar being the most important financing currency and onshore dollars being viewed as safe assets [7][40][44]. - The expansion of cross-border capital flows has outpaced trade growth, reinforcing the dollar's financial position [46]. Group 5: Dollar Cycles - The dollar exhibits cyclical characteristics influenced by fundamentals, policies, and capital flows, with positive feedback mechanisms amplifying these cycles [8][48][52]. - The dollar's appreciation impacts global economies asymmetrically, benefiting the U.S. while constraining other economies [53]. Group 6: The Dollar's Global Impact - The U.S. often emerges unscathed from global crises, with the adverse effects disproportionately affecting non-U.S. economies due to the asymmetrical impact of U.S. monetary policy [56][58]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency provides the U.S. with unique advantages, including lower financing costs and the ability to conduct fiscal stimulus without immediate repayment pressures [57]. Group 7: Need for an International Monetary System - The current trend towards a multi-polar world raises questions about the necessity of an international monetary system, with the dollar still playing a central role in global trade and finance [62][63]. - A multi-currency system may be preferable to a non-system, as it allows for currency competition and provides space for emerging currencies like the renminbi [64]. Group 8: Transitioning to a Multi-Currency System - Transitioning from a dollar-centric system to a multi-currency system requires policy coordination among major currency issuers and flexible exchange rate arrangements [11][65].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 5 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 5 月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（5.72%）>大宗商品（1.26%）>人民 币（1.00%）> 0%>美元（-0.14%）>全球债券（-0.36%）。 主要观点 ❖ 十张图速览全球资产脉络 1、美国"大而美法案"通过或加剧美国长债风险。共和党推动的"大而美法 案"包括大规模减税及支出调整，引发市场对美国债务可持续性的担忧。当前 美国国债规模已突破 36 万亿美元，如果法案落地，预计 2035 年债务/GDP 比 率恐飙升至 134%-149%，引发市场对财政可持续性的深度担忧。在此背景下， 穆迪于 5 月 16 日将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1。评级调降触发连锁 反应，30 年期美债收益率突破 5%，同时需求端结构性走弱，30 年期国债投标 认购比例显著回落，反映全球投资者对美债信用锚定的动摇。 2、美国经济衰退概率上升下美股防御性板块跑赢周期性板块。关税政策升级 与经济增速放缓的双重压力下，2025 年美国股市呈现出防御性板块跑赢周期 性板块的特征。截至 2025 年 5 月底，美股防御板块相比周期板块估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar cycle exhibits unprecedented characteristics, with its resilience surpassing historical experiences. This cycle shows three unusual behaviors: divergence from reserve currency share, divergence from fiscal and trade deficit expansion, and divergence from high inflation [2][3][7]. Historical Review and Current Characteristics - The dollar cycle has extended for 17 years since 2008, with a 40% increase, marking the longest uptrend since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution. The current dollar index peak exceeds the historical high of the 1990s [5][4]. Unusual Divergences - The first divergence is the decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from over 60% to just above 50% since 2015, despite a strong dollar index [7][10]. - The second divergence involves the fiscal deficit, which has reached nearly 15% of GDP, yet the dollar remains strong, contrary to traditional expectations [7][8]. - The third divergence is the occurrence of 9% inflation in the U.S. without a corresponding depreciation of the dollar, as other developed economies also face high inflation [10][11]. Mechanisms Driving the Dollar Cycle - The dollar cycle is influenced by fundamental, policy, and capital flow mechanisms, with geopolitical factors playing a significant role. The interaction between the real and financial sectors can lead to "overshooting" of the dollar cycle [3][13]. - The fundamental aspect is crucial, as the dollar index correlates with the U.S. GDP growth relative to other countries. The relative strength of the dollar is maintained as long as the U.S. economy performs better than its competitors [11][13]. Policy and Capital Flow Influences - The U.S. monetary policy's relative tightness supports the dollar, while international capital inflows, particularly into U.S. equities, have shifted from traditional treasury purchases [17][19]. - The dollar's strength is also supported by the unique structure of the U.S. economy, which has become less dependent on global trade, allowing it to withstand the negative effects of a strong dollar [14][15]. Potential Downturn of the Dollar - There are indications that the dollar may have entered a downtrend due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy, increasing global competition, and structural changes in the asset-liability dynamics of the U.S. [20][21]. - The U.S. has strong incentives to seek a weaker dollar, as it can help address the rising current account deficit and manage its extensive foreign liabilities [21][23]. Future Considerations - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the internal correction mechanisms within the U.S. economy, influenced by various political and economic forces [26][27]. - The ongoing competition in technology, particularly with China, and the evolving geopolitical landscape will also play critical roles in determining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [27][23].

Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

·InTouch Capital Markets：市场出现看多韩元迹象 【机构分析】 ·德意志银行：美联储可能要到12月才会降息 ·美债收益率在重磅数据出炉前持稳 ·中金：美股前景不确定性增大让非美风险资产的吸引力相对上升 ·凯投宏观：澳储行不愿大力降息 ·IG Markets：澳储行仍有降息空间 ·中金指出，美国股债汇重现"三杀"，或反映通胀环境与美元周期发生重大变化。"三杀"的本质是美元 资产中安全资产（债券与现金）的避险能力下降，难以对冲风险资产（股票与商品）的回调亏损。在美 元资产内部进行资产配置，无法有效分散风险，需警惕美国股债汇"三杀"反复化、长期化的可能性。美 元资产面临困局，美债美元避险能力下降，导致安全资产更为稀缺，有助于提升黄金的配置价值。美股 前景不确定性增大，让非美风险资产的吸引力相对上升，中欧股票可能体现相对韧性。 ·凯投宏观经济学家Abhijit Surya称，随着劳动力市场持续强劲，比以往任何时候都更加确信澳储行将不 愿大力降息，澳储行的政策放松周期可能仅限于再降息两次，将官方隔夜拆款利率从目前的4.10%下调 至3.60%。 ·IG Markets分析师Tony Sycamor ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will retain 10% of the 20% tariff on fentanyl and suspend 90% of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, while canceling all tariffs imposed on April 8 and 9[1] - China will suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on US goods for the initial 90 days, retaining 10% on these products and canceling other subsequent tariffs[1] - The tariff reductions exceed previous investor expectations, potentially raising the volatility center of the domestic equity market[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A-shares opened higher and closed up, with significant gains in sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics, confirming the positive outlook[2] - The market's risk appetite is expected to increase further due to the positive signals from the US-China negotiations, with potential recovery in the export chain[2] - The current A-share risk premium is influenced by domestic credit cycles and the US dollar cycle, with a reasonable P/E ratio estimated at 21x compared to the current 19x[4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to technology and export sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on industries with high US exposure[5] - Mid-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from internal certainty, such as public funds and industries with improved earnings forecasts[5] - The Hong Kong market is expected to show relative returns, with recommendations to increase allocations in technology and consumer sectors[6]

关税谈判结果总结分析 20250512 摘要 • 市场预期转变推动指数进入新波动区间：市场对中美贸易竞争的预期在 4 月前普遍悲观，压制市场。当前市场信心增强，预期乐观，指数有望进入 更高波动区间。 • 中期风格偏向科技成长：基于特朗普政府实用主义政策可能调整、化债目 标或通过弱美元实现，以及美元周期下 A 股流动性驱动，远期基本面品种 如科技成长占优。 • 关税谈判结果超预期：日内瓦谈判表明双方迫切止损，90 天延长 24%关 税背后可能涉及稀土、芬太尼、扩大进口及农产品等承诺，将在第二步谈 判中解决。 • 关税对企业影响分析：10%关税可消化，20%对低利润传统产品构成挑战， 高科技产品仍可维持。30%则多数企业出口困难。 • 美国承受压力：高关税无法兑现、海关停摆、产供链受影响及家庭消费意 愿提升导致矛盾加剧，美国需回归经济正常运转水平。 • 企业应对策略：企业应分头突围，通过内销承接部分出口转移，拓展海外 市场，海外投资和产能转移，避免过度依赖单一市场，发展全产业链。 • 贸易战缓解对资本市场的积极影响：中央政治局提出"六稳"，美国因国 内经济问题采取止损策略，但仅是短期缓冲，90 天后谈判不顺利将面 ...

Global Liquidity Overview - Global liquidity remains tight, with the M2 money supply growth rate near historical lows, indicating a constrained liquidity environment[1] - The strength of the US dollar significantly influences global liquidity trends, following a cyclical pattern every 4-5 years[1] US Dollar Liquidity Analysis - Current indicators show that US dollar liquidity is generally tight, but there is no immediate risk of liquidity shocks[2] - The net liquidity in the US financial system has tightened since 2021, remaining below the long-term trend line, suggesting a constrained liquidity scale[2] - As of May 9, 2025, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.37%, respectively, both at historically high levels[2] Future Liquidity Projections - A weaker dollar trend is expected to lead to a loosening of global liquidity, driven by the need to balance fiscal policies and reduce trade deficits[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which would lower dollar interest rates and promote looser global liquidity conditions[3] A-Share Market Valuation - The loosening of global liquidity is likely to benefit global risk assets, particularly non-US assets that have been under pressure due to a strong dollar[5] - The nominal growth rate difference between China and the US has narrowed significantly from 6.6% in Q2 2022 to just 0.1% in Q1 2025, enhancing the relative value of Chinese assets[7] - The "stock-bond yield spread" model indicates that the current A-share market offers attractive investment opportunities, with a yield spread of approximately 4.3%, suggesting high configuration value[8]