Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the foreign exchange market dynamics, particularly the outlook for the Chinese Yuan (RMB) against the US Dollar (USD) through 2026, highlighting the implications of monetary policy differences between the US and China [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market anticipates a significant divergence in interest rate cuts between the US and China, with expectations of over 75 basis points in the US and around 25 basis points in China, which could favor RMB appreciation [1][2]. - **Unsettled Foreign Exchange Amounts**: Current assessments suggest that the actual unsettled foreign exchange amounts are closer to $150-200 billion, rather than the previously estimated $800-1,200 billion, due to the inversion of interest rates leading to increased overseas direct investments [1][3][4]. - **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The USD is entering a new weak cycle expected to last 3-5 years, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization trends, reduced US Treasury holdings, and fiscal deficits, which may provide long-term appreciation opportunities for the RMB [1][5]. - **China's Current Account Surplus**: A robust current account surplus, combined with the repatriation of overseas investment profits, supports the RMB's mid-term fundamentals, with seasonal settlement becoming increasingly important for RMB appreciation [1][6]. - **Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance**: The Federal Reserve's internal divisions suggest a continued dovish approach, with personnel changes potentially accelerating rate cuts, further pressuring the USD and enhancing RMB appreciation [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **RMB Stability Amidst Weak USD**: Despite the weak USD, the RMB has not experienced significant volatility due to a shift in settlement structures from USD dominance to a diversified currency basket, reducing sensitivity to USD fluctuations [1][8]. - **Long-term RMB Policy**: China's RMB policy currently aims for stability, with a long-term trend towards appreciation to alleviate economic growth pressures, particularly in light of the 2035 GDP doubling goal [1][9][10]. - **Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate**: Future RMB exchange rates will be influenced by political uncertainties, changes in US-China interest rate differentials, and economic expectations, with a stable global economy supporting RMB appreciation [1][11]. - **2026 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook**: The expectation for 2026 includes a potential 7% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with various hedging tools available for enterprises to manage foreign exchange risks [1][12][14]. Hedging Strategies - **Choosing Hedging Tools**: Enterprises are advised to consider different contract types and rolling methods for hedging, with forward contracts generally being more expensive than futures. Strategies to optimize costs include using deep discount contracts and adjusting hedging ratios based on market conditions [1][14][16]. Arbitrage Opportunities - **HKD and USD Arbitrage**: Under the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the USD, there are opportunities for arbitrage, particularly when interest rate differentials widen, and during periods of market intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [1][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the foreign exchange market dynamics and the outlook for the RMB.

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market may not be over, as historical comparisons indicate that its price increase and duration are still below the major upcycles of the 1970s and 2000s [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Outlook - Given the current macroeconomic uncertainties, the long-term adjustment of global reserve structures, and the potential decline of the dollar cycle, the gold bull market is expected to continue [1] - The possibility of gold prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce next year cannot be ruled out if the current trends persist [1] Investment Strategy - Despite the clear bull market logic, gold is currently considered one of the more expensive asset classes, which may increase asset volatility [1] - It is recommended to maintain an overweight position in gold while reducing speculative trading, focusing instead on strategies such as buying on dips and regular investments, with an emphasis on gold's long-term asset allocation value [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the A-share market and its investment strategy outlook for 2026, highlighting a potential shift from growth to value investment styles around mid-2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Style Shift**: A significant transition from growth to value investment styles is anticipated around June 2026, with growth stocks currently favored until then [2][16]. - **Performance of Key Indices**: Since September 2024, major indices like the Sci-Tech 50, North Exchange 50, and ChiNext have seen gains exceeding 100%, driven by sectors such as TMT, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from AI, new energy, and global demand growth [1][3]. - **Investment Focus**: Institutional investors are advised to focus on the rotation between growth and value styles rather than market capitalization. The current phase is characterized by a bull market in technology growth stocks [5][21]. - **Global and Domestic Factors**: The pricing of growth stocks is influenced by global interest rates and industry trends, while value stocks are more reliant on domestic pricing. Changes in the US dollar interest rates can significantly impact market dynamics [1][6][8]. - **Liquidity and Market Impact**: The flow of funds and liquidity conditions have a substantial effect on market performance. The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects how domestic investors react to foreign capital flows [9][10][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **"Deposit Migration" Explained**: This phenomenon indicates a shift in asset allocation from real estate to the stock market, closely tied to global capital movements rather than just domestic savings trends [10][11]. - **Historical Context**: Past market behaviors during periods of strong industry trends but weak liquidity (e.g., 2009-2010) and strong trends with ample liquidity (e.g., 2019-2021) illustrate the complex interplay between liquidity and market performance [13][14]. - **PPI and Market Dynamics**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) turning positive is crucial for the market's transition from growth to value styles. The timeline for this transition is projected based on historical patterns [20][21]. - **Sector Focus for 2026**: The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to drive significant trading activity in the first half of 2026, with potential adjustments in the second half [19][23]. Future Investment Strategy - **Key Investment Themes**: Emphasis on technology and safety, along with reform and growth, should guide investment decisions. Monitoring government reports and fiscal spending will be critical for identifying catalysts [24]. - **Market Outlook**: If no breakout applications emerge in the AI sector by mid-2026, a mid-term adjustment may occur, impacting stock prices significantly due to concentrated positions in AI-related stocks [18][24]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the A-share market and investment strategies leading into 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and sector performance.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors such as the dollar cycle, global economic growth quality, and policy changes in major economies, while analyzing historical trends and their implications for future commodity pricing [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Commodity Cycles - Different eras have distinct dominant factors influencing commodity prices, with a review structured around significant events and changes in the global landscape [7]. - The 1970s marked a unique period of stagflation, initiated by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, leading to a decoupling of the dollar from gold, resulting in a chaotic economic environment where commodity prices surged despite economic recession [11][12]. - The 1980s saw a recovery with the stabilization of the dollar and economic growth in the U.S., where commodity prices were positively correlated with GDP, particularly during the period of the Plaza Accord [15][16]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Commodity Prices - The relationship between commodity cycles and economic growth attributes is significant, with emerging economies and new growth drivers having a more substantial impact on commodity trends than inventory cycles [10]. - The early 2000s experienced a super bull market in commodities driven by China's industrialization and demand, with the CRB index rising from 200 to 480 before the financial crisis [21][23]. - Post-financial crisis, the period from 2008 to 2018 was characterized by China's stimulus measures, which temporarily boosted commodity prices, but ultimately led to overcapacity and a prolonged bear market [28][32]. Group 3: Current and Future Trends - The era of de-globalization, marked by U.S.-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, has reinforced the monetary attributes of commodities, leading to a recent bull market in the CRB index [35][38]. - The relationship between the CRB index and China's economic cycles has weakened, indicating a shift in the dynamics of commodity demand and pricing [39]. - The long-term price range of commodities is influenced by their monetary attributes and cyclical properties, with potential for the CRB index to rise to a new range of 500-700 due to ongoing monetary expansion [47].

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Trends - The dollar index rose to a high of 99.6 on October 9, marking the highest level since early August, following a strong appreciation since October 6[5] - The dollar's rebound can be divided into three phases, with the first phase seeing a rise from 96.6 to 98.6, an increase of 2.1%[14] - The second phase, from September 26 to October 3, saw a slight decline in the dollar index to 97.7 due to government shutdown concerns[17] - The third phase, from October 6 to October 9, was driven by political turmoil in Japan and France, leading to a spike in the dollar index to 99.6[18] Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Rebound - The rebound is viewed as a temporary phase within a longer-term depreciation trend, with four main reasons for potential difficulty in sustaining the rise[6] - The expectation of a prolonged government shutdown could lead to renewed downward pressure on the dollar, with a 67% probability of a shutdown lasting more than 15 days[21] - Recent political changes in Japan and France are seen as one-time events that are unlikely to alter the dollar's long-term trajectory significantly[25] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may act as a new resistance to the dollar's rebound, potentially counteracting its recent gains[26] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with GDP growth for Q3 2025 projected at 3.8%, which diminishes the necessity for aggressive rate cuts[28] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower rates 2-4 times by the end of 2026, which is ahead of the Fed's own guidance[29] - The dollar's long-term depreciation hypothesis suggests that a stable dollar index below 95 or 90 requires new "game changers" such as significant fiscal tightening or unexpected monetary policy shifts in non-U.S. economies[34]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the challenges faced by South Korean companies in the U.S., particularly in light of recent immigration enforcement actions that have raised questions about the sustainability of their investments and operations in America [1][10] - The historical context shows that South Korea has been significantly influenced by U.S. monetary policy, leading to cycles of capital inflow and outflow that have strained Korean enterprises [3][5] - The tightening of U.S. visa policies has created operational difficulties for Korean firms, with a high rejection rate for H-1B visas, complicating the transfer of skilled labor necessary for their U.S. operations [9][10] Group 2 - The economic relationship between the U.S. and South Korea is characterized by an imbalance in profit distribution, with reports indicating that 90% of investment profits are retained by the U.S. [12] - South Korean firms are experiencing a loss of innovation capacity and a shrinking space for industrial upgrades due to foreign control over management and ownership [12][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. policies are placing South Korea in a precarious position, leading to internal societal debates about the implications of being a "cash cow" for U.S. interests [14][16] Group 3 - The recent raid in Georgia highlights the systemic issues faced by Korean companies in the U.S., revealing the complexities of labor regulations and immigration policies that impact their operational capabilities [1][10] - The trend of South Korean companies relocating their operations to the U.S. is contributing to a hollowing out of domestic industries, resulting in fewer high-end jobs and reduced tax revenues in South Korea [7][12] - The future of U.S.-Korea relations remains uncertain, with potential scenarios that could further complicate South Korea's economic and security landscape amid shifting global supply chains [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 70%-80% of stocks and three-quarters of funds have achieved positive returns this year, and the bullish market trend is likely to continue until 2026, driven by improved market liquidity conditions [1] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year, and trading activity has significantly increased [1] - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic central bank operations injecting liquidity, which benefits risk assets [1][2] Group 2 - The correlation between changes in foreign exchange reserves and the CSI All A Index indicates that a significant amount of capital that was previously held overseas is beginning to flow back into China, particularly since 2025 [2] - Historical patterns suggest that the dollar cycle lasts about 17 years, and if the dollar enters a new down cycle, it may be favorable for non-dollar assets such as Chinese assets, gold, and commodities [2] - The economic cycle in China is in a recovery phase, with M2 starting to recover since September 2024, which aligns with the upward movement of the large-cap stock index [2] Group 3 - In the short to medium term, as long as liquidity improves and the economic cycle does not shift, market risk appetite is expected to remain positive, particularly during the policy announcement window in September and October [3] - The Hong Kong stock market is also expected to have upward potential in the second half of the year, driven by the "northbound capital southward" trend, with significant policy support enhancing market sentiment [3] - The scale of southbound capital in the first half of the year has already exceeded the total for the previous year, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the US dollar is entering a new downward cycle due to a combination of short-term, medium-term, and long-term pressures, including interest rate differentials, US debt issues, and the trend of de-dollarization [1][2][19]. Short-term Analysis - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, the widening interest rate differential between the US and non-US markets has been a key factor supporting the dollar's high position [3]. - The ability of the Federal Reserve to initiate consecutive rate cuts will be crucial for the dollar's future trajectory, as inflation in the US is expected to align more closely with other major economies by mid-2025 [4][5]. - The US economy is showing increasing signs of downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a broad decline across various economic indicators [5]. - Other markets are expected to see a slowdown in easing monetary policies, which could further compress the interest rate differentials that have supported the dollar [7][8]. Medium-term Analysis - The US Treasury market is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the current administration's fiscal policies, which could negatively impact the dollar's value [11][12]. - Over the past two years, the Treasury market has experienced three notable supply-demand crises, indicating ongoing instability [13][14]. - The recent "Great Beautiful Plan" proposed by the Trump administration is projected to worsen the fiscal deficit, leading to further imbalances in the Treasury market [15][16]. - By the end of 2024, the US federal debt is expected to exceed $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $952 billion, creating substantial pressure on the dollar [16]. Long-term Analysis - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by a decline in the US's international standing and responsibilities, with its share of global GDP dropping to 14.9% by 2024 [18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with various countries exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade and reserves, which could significantly reduce demand for the dollar [19]. - Historical precedents suggest that large-scale de-dollarization can lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [19].