有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 期货研究报告 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍持续增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜维持震荡态势，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数 持续走弱，利好有色。产业层面，下游观望氛围较浓。短期伦铜逼近 1.2 万美元关口，沪铜逼近 12 月上旬高位，有较强的技术压力，多 头了结意愿较强。回调关注 5 日均线支撑。 沪铝 早盘沪铝减仓跳水，随后 V 型反弹，整体持仓量下降明显。宏观 层面，美元指数持续走弱，利好有色。产业层面，基差月差维持弱 势，产业端牵制较强。铝价再度回升 ...

12月16日，非农数据公布前市场情绪谨慎，俄乌和谈取得进展，避险情绪降温，金价跌破4320美元/盎 司关口，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4315美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌1.19%， 黄金股ETF(159562)跌3.65%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌2.49%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 专业分析指出，当前金价的核心支撑来自市场对美联储进一步降息的持续押注，叠加美元指数走弱，共 同强化了黄金的短期上行态势。然而，随着地缘局势趋于缓和，避险情绪有所降温，市场关注点正向利 率路径等宏观因素集中回归。后续需重点关注美国非农等关键数据的发布，若数据强化降息预期，则金 价有望延续强势；若数据推迟宽松节奏，则需警惕波动加剧与阶段性回调风险。整体来看，金价短期整 理过程中仍具备配置价值。 消息方面，周二晚间，美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布美国10-11月非农就业报告。交易者和经济学家预 计NFP报告将显示美国净新增就业5万个岗位，平均时薪月环比上升0.3%（年同比3.7%），U3失业率小 幅升至4.5%。地缘政治方面，特朗普表示与俄罗斯总统普京进行了多次对话，还得到了欧洲领导人的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is supported by strong domestic exports and a weakening US dollar index, indicating a robust fundamental backing for the currency's strength [2][4][6]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation Factors - The RMB has appreciated by 1000 basis points this year, reaching a nearly one-year high, primarily due to a 6.2% year-on-year increase in exports over the first ten months [2][4]. - The resilience of the RMB is attributed to the stability of China's supply chain and the ongoing positive impact of foreign trade on the economy [4][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar, driven by policy uncertainties in the US, has also contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as global capital preferences shift away from dollar-denominated assets [6][8]. Group 2: Short-term vs Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the RMB may experience volatility influenced by capital flows and market sentiment, with potential for periodic corrections [10]. - Over the long term, the RMB is expected to appreciate further, potentially breaking the 7 mark against the dollar, driven by valuation differences between US and Chinese assets [12][14]. - The attractiveness of Chinese financial assets and the ongoing economic recovery in China are likely to support this long-term appreciation trend [14]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment for Stablecoins - Recent regulatory measures have tightened oversight on stablecoins, with the central bank emphasizing the prohibition of virtual currency trading to prevent financial risks [20][22]. - The focus of regulation includes preventing money laundering and maintaining currency sovereignty, ensuring that the stability of the RMB is not compromised by virtual currency transactions [22][24]. - The regulatory approach suggests a potential for controlled experimentation with stablecoins in specific applications, while speculative activities will face strict limitations [24][26].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, currently at 25,800 points, down 0.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also opened lower, currently at 5,565 points, down 0.88% [4] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and tourism sectors showed strong gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Jiangxi Copper rising over 3% [6] - Conversely, the e-commerce and blockchain sectors experienced significant declines, with Gome Retail dropping over 6% and NetEase-S down over 2% [6] New Listings - Two newly listed stocks opened below their issue prices, with Yujian Xiaomian (HK02408) trading at HKD 5.28, down approximately 25% from its issue price, and Tianyu Semiconductor (HK02658) at HKD 44.6, down about 23% [6] Industry Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on the Macau gaming industry for next year, expecting strong demand supported by diverse tourism products and increased market promotion, raising revenue growth forecasts for the next two years to 9% and 6% respectively [8] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market could create opportunities for 2026, highlighting the impact of the "K-shaped economy" and the necessity for a rate cut in December due to rising unemployment rates [8]

人民币还能继续升值吗？20251203 摘要 美联储鸽派信号和疲软的美国经济数据大幅提升了市场对 12 月降息的 预期，成为驱动近期外汇市场，尤其是美元兑人民币汇率走势的关键因 素。 日本央行暗示加息条件成熟，叠加美元指数疲软，推动日元走强；英国 财政预算方案缓解市场担忧，加之美元走弱，使得英镑表现突出。 人民币兑美元即期汇率和中间价同步走强，强化了市场对人民币升值的 预期，央行汇率调控取得阶段性成功，巩固了短期内人民币强势格局。 11 月下旬，企业集中结汇以锁定利润和规避风险，季节性因素也增加结 汇需求，放大了市场波动，为人民币强势提供了额外动力。 美联储降息预期升温导致 2 年期美债收益率下降，美元指数走弱，为包 括人民币在内的非美货币创造了有利的外部环境。 美国经济放缓迹象、政治不确定性和美元信用问题削弱了美元指数，推 动国际资本转移到包括人民币在内的其他资产。 短期内，人民币兑美元大概率将呈现相对强势并伴随波动风险，美联储 降息预期、国内经济基本面和季节性结汇需求等因素支撑人民币走强， 但需警惕美国经济好转导致美元反弹的风险。 Q&A 日元和英镑在近期外汇市场中的表现如何？ 近期人民币相对于美元的升值 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - Regarding gold, the short - term view is "偏强", the medium - term view is "震荡", the intraday view is "震荡偏强", and the recommended view is "观望". The core logic is that the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the situation in Russia - Ukraine is tending to ease. However, the short - term gold price is relatively weak compared to silver, and the market risk preference is warming up, which is not conducive to the rise of the gold price [1][3]. - Regarding copper, the short - term view is "震荡", the medium - term view is "强势", the intraday view is "强势", and the recommended view is "长线看强". The core logic is that the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the US dollar index is weakening, and the copper market has a good fundamental situation and high capital attention. Also, there is a supply contraction expectation in the copper industry [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai gold futures stood above the 960 mark, and the New York gold price stood above the $4250 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has mainly come from the continuous increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the decline of the US dollar index. The current market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index once fell to the 99 mark last night. The short - term gold price is relatively weak compared to silver, which reflects the warming up of market risk preference [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure of Shanghai gold in mid - November [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Since last week, the copper price has been rising continuously. On Monday this week, Shanghai copper maintained a strong operation, and the night - session price once approached the 90,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The rise of the copper price is mainly due to the increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. The market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen from 70% at the beginning of last week to nearly 90%. The copper market has a good fundamental situation and high capital attention. There has been a continuous fermentation of the overseas mine - end contraction expectation since late September, and the domestic industry supply contraction expectation has also increased. China has taken measures to manage copper smelting capacity and stopped about 2 million tons of illegal production capacity [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Currently, both LME copper and Shanghai copper have stood above the high level at the end of October, which is also the historical high in the past 5 years. The short - term open interest of Shanghai copper has increased from 510,000 contracts to 580,000 contracts, with obvious increase in positions and upward movement, and the possibility of the copper price breaking through is relatively large [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that silver prices have reached historic highs, with spot silver surpassing $57 per ounce and domestic futures breaking through 13,000 yuan per kilogram, indicating a strong performance in the silver market [2][3]. - Year-to-date, international silver prices have increased by over 90%, significantly outperforming gold, with notable price movements occurring in October and November [3]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar index, and a decline in silver production leading to supply shortages [5]. Group 2 - The market anticipates an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which supports precious metal prices [5]. - The decline in global silver inventories to near a decade low, coupled with increasing industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, has intensified market tension [5]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term volatility due to profit-taking pressures, the long-term supply-demand fundamentals support a bullish price outlook for silver, with a projected target price of $65 per ounce by 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a new high, with spot silver surpassing $57 per ounce and domestic silver futures breaking through 13,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase of over 90% this year, outperforming gold as the strongest precious metal of the year [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, spot silver prices first exceeded $57 per ounce [1] - Domestic silver futures main contract prices also crossed the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark [1] - Year-to-date silver price increase has surpassed 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has risen to 80%, providing strong support for precious metals [1] - A weakening U.S. dollar index has further exacerbated the upward trend in silver prices [1] - Technical issues with the CME trading system have led to increased market volatility [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 75:1, indicating that silver is still undervalued relative to gold [1] - Bank of America has recently raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - Gold is recommended to be on the sidelines, with short - term strength, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a bias towards strength. The core logic is the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The rising price is mainly driven by the continuous heating up of Fed rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to be long - term bullish, with short - term oscillation, medium - term strength, and intraday strength. The rising price benefits from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index, along with the differentiation of electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price went up, approaching the high in early November. New York gold reached above $4200, and Shanghai gold exceeded the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The continuous heating up of the Fed rate cut expectation led to the weakening of the US dollar index. As of November 30, the market expected the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to be close to 90%, and the US dollar index weakened from the 100 - mark last week [3]. - **Market Performance**: In the short term, the gold price is expected to be strong, but it is weaker than silver, possibly due to the switching of market risk preferences [3]. Copper - **Price Situation**: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in position and went up significantly. On Friday night, the copper price continued to rise. LME copper broke through the $11,000 mark and the previous high, and Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: It benefited from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. In the industry, the electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad were differentiated, with marginal inventory accumulation overseas and marginal inventory reduction in China, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Shanghai copper increased in position and went up, with strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high point at the end of October [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].