Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance despite external pressures [1][3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, showing a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter, but remaining at a relatively high level [3][4] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in April, maintaining the same growth rate as in March [4] Policy Support - The stability in China's economy is attributed to effective counter-cyclical policies, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and the issuance of special bonds to stimulate consumption and investment [5][6] - Retail sales in categories related to the consumption upgrade policy contributed 1.4 percentage points to the overall growth of retail sales in April [5] Industrial and Trade Resilience - China's industrial base is robust, with the manufacturing sector maintaining its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, which supports economic stability amid external shocks [6][7] - From January to April, exports of electromechanical products increased by 9.5% year-on-year, reflecting the competitiveness of China's upgraded industrial products in international markets [7] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the economy shows resilience, the foundation for recovery needs to be solidified due to ongoing uncertainties in the international environment [8][9] - There is a consensus on the need for stronger government macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and investment, which are crucial for sustaining economic growth [9][10]

规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1% 消费同比增长5.1% 投资持续扩大 透视四月宏观经济数据：顶住压力稳定增长 ◎记者陈芳 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，展现较强韧性。 国家统计局5月19日发布数据显示，4月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，内需稳步扩大，全国城 镇调查失业率连续2个月下降，新质生产力加快培育。 专家分析称，随着近期出台的稳经济稳就业系列措施和一揽子金融政策逐步显效，下一阶段经济有望保 持稳中有进态势。 国内需求稳步扩大 今年以来，"两重""两新"政策力度加大，内需支撑力较强。据国家统计局数据，4月，社会消费品零售 总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%；环比增长0.24%。此外，1至4月，社会消费品零售总额161845亿元， 同比增长4.7%，比一季度加快0.1个百分点；固定资产投资同比增长4%，较一季度略有放缓，但快于去 年全年增速。 消费新动能增势较好，网上零售、即时零售等新业态增速快于整体。1至4月，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长5.8%，快于整体消费增速；旅游出行相关服务消费增长较快，交通出行、通讯信息、旅游咨询租 赁服务类零售额均保持两 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 政策不会短视 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 18 期） 频率：每周 尽管中美阶段性互降关税，但国内政策执行进度不会就此放缓。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《四月金融数据怎么看》 2025-05-15 2、《中美阶段性互降关税有何 影响—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 17 期）》2025-05- 12 3、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 从上周的市场表现看，投资者普遍预期由于中美阶段性互降关税的缘故，短 期基本面将好于预期，这意味着 2 季度内政策显著加码的可能性下降。今天 公布的 4 月经济数据也显示国内工业生产、消费和投资形势也并没受到此前 双方高额关税的影响，数据韧性较强，预计 2 季度经济增速有较大可能性稳 定在全年经济增长目标附近。尽管如此，我们认为 2 季度政策执行层面不会 受上述因素 ...

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first four months, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[9] External Environment Impact - The slowdown in industrial growth is attributed to a tightening external economic environment, with export delivery value growth dropping by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9%[5] - Consumer confidence has been affected by external trade uncertainties, as indicated by a consumer confidence index of 87.5 points in March, down 0.9 points from the previous month[7] - The manufacturing PMI production index fell by 2.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity due to reduced external demand[5] Policy Response - The government has implemented counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special bonds to support growth[2] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted consumer spending, particularly in appliances and communication equipment, with retail sales in these categories showing double-digit growth[8] - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting the government's focus on stabilizing economic growth amid external pressures[12] Future Outlook - Industrial production growth is expected to decline further to around 5.3% in May due to ongoing external trade challenges[6] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to accelerate, particularly in infrastructure, as the government continues to push for economic stability[12] - The overall macroeconomic resilience is anticipated to persist despite external pressures, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies[13]

Market Overview - The major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened lower on May 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a decline after initial fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices showed wider fluctuations after filling gaps [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3367.46 points, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of approximately 435.6 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component closed at 10179.60 points, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of about 653.9 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2039.45 points, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of around 298.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector and controllable nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains in the morning session, although the gains narrowed during the day, remaining among the top performers [1] - Other sectors that experienced notable increases included COVID-19 drug concepts, automotive parts, integrated die-casting, and cultivated diamonds, while sectors such as chemical fibers, warehousing logistics, and seed industry faced larger declines [1] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the A-share market is gradually finding a bottom with medium to long-term investment opportunities, driven by a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2] - Guoyuan Securities noted that the "618" shopping festival has seen a shift in pre-sale periods, with platforms like Tmall and JD.com simplifying mechanisms and increasing subsidies, leading to strong performances from domestic products [2] - Guojin Securities highlighted that financial technology companies are actively seeking growth points in areas such as AI and overseas expansion, with a positive outlook for C-end stock trading software companies as market activity remains robust [2] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting on May 15 to promote the optimization of the departure tax refund policy, emphasizing its role in boosting consumption and responding to external shocks [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced a meeting to discuss further deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, focusing on high-quality completion of reform actions by 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data for April, highlighting a significant increase in social financing and various trends in credit and government bond financing, indicating a response to external shocks and a potential shift in monetary policy [1][6][14]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In April, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan more year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][7]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - New entity credit was 844 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.505 trillion yuan, which was below market expectations [8][9]. - The decline in credit is attributed to three factors: cautious sentiment due to tariff impacts, delayed financial policy implementation, and high repayment volumes from previous short-term financing [8][9]. Structure of Loans - Short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises both saw a decrease, while bill financing remained high due to its lower risk profile [2][9]. - In the household sector, medium-to-long-term loans decreased by 123.1 billion yuan, while short-term loans dropped by 401.9 billion yuan, marking the lowest level since 2007 [2][9]. Government and Corporate Bond Financing - Government bond financing increased by 976.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 1.0699 trillion yuan, indicating accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 234 billion yuan, with city investment bonds showing some improvement, although overall levels remain low [10][11]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 grew by 1.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, with a notable decrease in the deposits of government and institutional entities [12][13]. - M2 increased by 8% year-on-year, with a significant contribution from interbank assets, driven by a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5][14]. Evaluation of April Financial Data - The financial data for April reflects a notable change compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards "moderate easing" [6][14]. - The data is seen as a temporary response to external shocks, with expectations for improved credit and financing data in May following new policy measures [6][14].

一、高供应压力持续，减产动能不足 钢厂产量维持高位，供应压力难缓解。年初以来，国内钢材延续复产路径，铁水产量呈现增加态势。根 据Mysteel数据，截至5月9日，247家钢铁企业铁水日均产量达到245.64万吨，环比增加0.22万吨，较年 初低点224.37万吨增加21.27万吨，创年内新高。主要原因在于钢厂阶段性利润修复。年初以来，螺纹钢 高炉利润均值为104元/吨，最高达到139元/吨。同时，钢厂厂内库存水平正常，没有库存压力，叠加需 求处于阶段性恢复期，生产积极性较高。 5月后需求将逐步走弱，且受成材价格跌幅普遍大于原料影响，钢厂利润持续被压缩，增产动能受到抑 制，钢厂日均铁水的计划产量预计小幅回落至240万吨，后续大幅扩产的意愿趋于谨慎，但降幅依然有 限，高供应格局短期内难以扭转。 此外，当前钢厂虽面临利润压缩，江苏地区螺纹钢利润下滑至约40元/吨，但尚未进入全面亏损区间， 因此主动减产动力不足。同时，近期市场对粗钢限产的消息继续发酵，一度提振盘面情绪，但考虑到政 策落地的时间差，对短期钢厂生产影响较小。 在短期钢厂减产意愿偏弱的情况下，市场潜在的风险可能凸显。若5月下旬需求加速下滑，而钢厂减产 滞后 ...

Overview - The recent financial policy package aims to stabilize the market and economic expectations through targeted measures[1] - The central bank announced a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, a general interest rate reduction of 10 basis points, and a structural loan interest rate cut of 25 basis points[2] Monetary Policy Measures - The total expansion of structural monetary policy tools is projected to increase the base currency by CNY 1.1 trillion, potentially raising the broad money supply (M2) by CNY 9-10 trillion, which is approximately 2.8%-3.1% of the M2 stock as of March 2023[2] - The RRR cut is expected to release about CNY 1 trillion in liquidity, effective from May 15[5] Structural Policy Focus - Specific structural loans for technology innovation and agricultural support will increase by CNY 3,000 billion each, while loans for service consumption and elderly care will expand by CNY 5,000 billion, totaling CNY 11,000 billion in new structural financial tools[8] - The reduction in public housing fund loan rates by 25 basis points is expected to save residents over CNY 200 billion in interest payments annually[8] Market Stabilization Efforts - The policy aims to enhance capital market liquidity and boost investor confidence, with measures to support insurance funds entering the market and stabilizing stock prices[7] - The government emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in directly stimulating investment and consumption, especially in response to external trade pressures[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in US-China trade tensions and further declines in domestic demand, which could necessitate additional monetary and fiscal policy adjustments[9]

Core Insights - The report discusses a comprehensive set of financial policies announced on May 7, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting economic growth through a series of counter-cyclical measures [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [5] - A 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates has been announced, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5] - The PBOC has increased the quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and transformation from 5 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan, supporting the implementation of "two new" policies [5] Group 2: Capital Market Support - The report highlights the integration of 500 billion yuan in securities fund swaps with 300 billion yuan in stock repurchase re-lending to enhance the flexibility of fund usage [2] - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase long-term investments, with a planned approval of an additional 60 billion yuan for investment [2] - The establishment of a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds is aimed at facilitating low-cost financing for tech enterprises [5][7] Group 3: Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC has introduced a 3 billion yuan increase in re-lending for technological innovation, complementing the previous 5 billion yuan allocation [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing a supportive regulatory framework for the STAR Market and ChiNext, enhancing the adaptability and inclusiveness of the capital market [7] - The focus on technology innovation is expected to strengthen the growth momentum in sectors such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics [3][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][52]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of the trade war on the banking sector, indicating that as tariff shocks become evident, capital market trading will return to fundamentals. It reviews the banking industry's performance during the 2018-2019 trade conflicts and suggests that while there are similarities, the current trade war is not entirely comparable to the previous one [3][7][8]. - The report predicts that the current trade conflict will likely lead to a more severe impact on the banking sector, but due to China's economic structural transformation and enhanced response capabilities, the overall impact on bank performance will be limited. It emphasizes that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [5][37][48]. Summary by Sections Trade Conflict Review - The 2018-2019 trade conflict involved a cycle of "tariff increase - countermeasures - negotiation relief - escalation," affecting various sectors, including finance and technology. The trade conflict led to a 12.5% year-on-year decline in China's exports to the U.S. in 2019, prompting a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4][13][18]. - In 2019, China's GDP growth was 6.1%, within the target range of 6.0%-6.5%, indicating a stabilizing economy. The banking index showed absolute returns but lacked excess returns, with significant individual stock performance variations [4][25][28]. Current Trade War Impact - The current trade war is characterized by more intense tariff negotiations, with potential spillover into financial and technological conflicts. However, China's ability to respond has significantly improved due to years of economic restructuring [5][8][47]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector will face short-term challenges in scale growth and asset quality, but overall performance will remain stable due to high provisioning coverage and effective risk management practices [37][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector may not achieve excess returns but is expected to provide absolute returns. It highlights high-growth banks such as Changshu Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank as favorable investment options, while also recommending Jiangsu Bank for its stable performance and high dividend yield [6][44][48].