Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce several policies to expand service consumption this month, reflecting a shift in macroeconomic policy focus towards balancing goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - There is a high income elasticity in service consumption, meaning changes in residents' income expectations and growth significantly impact this sector [1] - Recent consumption trends indicate that demand and spending in the service sector are not lacking; rather, there is a need to match evolving consumer preferences with appropriate scenarios and quality supply [1] - The youth consumer group, particularly Generation Z, is willing to spend on interests and emotional value, as seen in the phenomenon of "LABUBU," while also seeking high cost-performance ratios, demonstrating a preference for spending wisely [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the shortage of quality service supply, the focus should be on "opening up externally and loosening restrictions internally," which includes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract mature and high-quality services [1] - Additionally, reducing domestic market restrictions, such as easing market access and optimizing regulatory models, is essential to stimulate market competition and enrich service supply [1] Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Measures - The proposed measures for "opening up externally and loosening restrictions internally" are more aligned with long-term reforms aimed at fundamentally improving the service consumption cycle [2] - Short-term counter-cyclical adjustment policies are also necessary to provide immediate visibility of the government's commitment to boosting consumption, exemplified by the recent "dual subsidy" policy from the Ministry of Finance, which aims to lower financing costs for consumers and operators [2] - Both long-term reforms and short-term adjustments must continuously address real consumer needs to translate policy effectiveness into tangible benefits for consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies to expand service consumption this month, reflecting a shift in macroeconomic policy focus towards balancing goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has higher income elasticity, meaning changes in residents' income expectations and growth rates significantly impact it [1] - Recent consumption trends indicate that there is demand in the service sector, but it requires appropriate scenarios and high-quality supply to match evolving consumer concepts [1] - The youth consumer group, particularly Generation Z, is willing to spend on interests and emotional value, as seen in the popularity of the phenomenon "LABUBU" [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the shortage of high-quality service supply, the focus should be on "opening up externally and loosening restrictions internally," which includes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [1] - Reducing domestic market restrictions, such as easing market access and optimizing regulatory models, is essential to stimulate market competition and enrich service supply [1] Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Policy Measures - The "opening up externally and loosening restrictions internally" measures are more aligned with long-term reforms aimed at fundamentally improving the service consumption cycle [2] - Short-term counter-cyclical adjustment policies are also necessary to demonstrate the government's commitment to boosting consumption, such as the recent "dual interest subsidy" policy [2] - The coordination between fiscal resources and financial resources is crucial to lower financing costs for consumers and operators, guiding financial resources towards the consumption sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce several policies to expand service consumption this month, reflecting a shift in macro policy focus towards balancing goods and service consumption in response to changing consumer behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has higher income elasticity, meaning changes in residents' income expectations and growth have a greater impact on this sector [1]. - Recent trends indicate that there is demand and spending in the service consumption sector, but it requires appropriate scenarios and high-quality supply to match evolving consumer concepts [1]. - The youth consumer group, particularly Generation Z, is willing to spend on interests and emotional value, as seen in the phenomenon of "LABUBU," while also being conscious of cost-effectiveness, demonstrating a preference for "spending when necessary and saving when possible" [1]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the shortage of high-quality service supply, the focus should be on "opening up externally and loosening restrictions internally," which includes expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract mature and high-quality services [1]. - Additionally, reducing domestic market restrictions, such as easing market access and optimizing regulatory models, is essential to stimulate market competition and enrich service supply [1]. - Long-term reforms through "opening up" are necessary, but short-term counter-cyclical adjustment policies must also be implemented to demonstrate the government's commitment to boosting consumption [2]. - The recent "dual subsidy" policy from the Ministry of Finance aims to leverage fiscal resources to reduce financing costs for consumers and operators, guiding financial resources towards the consumption sector [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, stock index futures have risen sharply due to policy, capital, and sentiment factors, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so be wary of adjustments caused by profit - taking. Gold rebounds in the short - term, but pay attention to increased volatility risks. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation, and gold faces a risk of deep adjustment [32]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to July this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the inventory of finished products increased by 2.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling for four consecutive months, indicating insufficient terminal demand and high operating pressure on downstream enterprises [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Corporate Earnings - The decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has narrowed marginally, but there is a differentiation in operating efficiency among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while those of industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, and plastics decline more [15]. 3.2.2 Capital - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The central bank has carried out 2273.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 496.1 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Interest Rate: Holding Cost, Inflation Level - In the US, durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month in July, and the consumer confidence index dropped from 98.7 to 97.4 in August, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities and pressure on employment. The market has repeatedly digested the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US Treasury yield has declined slightly [22]. 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index, Employment Situation - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, US manufacturing activities have slowed down significantly, downstream durable goods orders have declined, and employment is under pressure [22]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have increased significantly, while New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and market bullish sentiment has cooled [29].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue this year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue for the same period was 11.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax generated approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, attributed to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with the year-on-year decline for the first seven months reducing from -1.2% in the first half to -0.3% [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed good tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates of 33% for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, and 12.7% for scientific research and technical services [6] Government Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.8% [10] - The total government expenditure, including special bonds, showed a strong increase of 31.7% [10] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund budget, grew by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating robust fiscal support for economic growth [10]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue for the year [1] - Tax revenue totaled 11.09 trillion yuan, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 2.49 trillion yuan [1] - The recovery in fiscal revenue growth in July was attributed to improved corporate profit expectations and the wealth effect from the rising Shanghai Composite Index [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, supported by stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] - Securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 936 billion yuan, up 62.5%, indicating active capital market trading [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [2][4] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with a reduction of 0.3% for the first seven months compared to a 1.2% decline in the first half of the year [4] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax revenue performance, with notable increases in specific industries like railway and aerospace equipment [5] - The overall tax revenue performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year, driven by stable economic conditions and active capital markets [6] Government Expenditure - From January to July, national general public budget expenditure reached 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security, education, and health expenditures [9] - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, contributing to a stronger fiscal expenditure environment [9] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund expenditures, grew by 8.9% year-on-year, marking a strong performance [10]

人民财讯8月18日电，截至18日午间收盘，沪指半日涨超1%，上证指数创近10年来新高，创指涨超 3%。专家表示，今天A股放量普涨，市场仍有望延续强势格局，不过也需注意高位获利盘回吐压力。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示：随着一系列逆周期调节政策的实施，A股市场已逐渐探明底 部，并呈现出中长期的投资机会。虽然行情整体乐观，但在个股选择上，投资者切勿追涨杀跌，建议多 关注基本面好的行业及公司。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （原标题：专家称A股呈现出中长期投资机会 专家提醒投资者切勿追涨杀跌） ...

中国物流与采购联合会大宗商品流通分会副会长 周旭：中国大宗商品价格指数环比连续三个月回升，大宗商品市场的运行，总体持续回暖。在目前整 个国家"反内卷"的相关政策以及逆周期调节政策的加力实施下，我们国家大宗商品市场总体保持扩张态势。 另外，专家表示，我国大宗商品价格与全球经济关联度较高。当前全球大宗商品价格波动加剧，外部不确定、不稳定风险仍然较多，部分行业仍面临有 效需求不足、生产经营压力加大等问题。下一步仍需进一步发挥大宗商品流通在扩内需、稳增长、促发展方面的重要作用，激发增强经济内生动力和创新活 力，继续巩固经济回升向好的基础。 7月份中国大宗商品价格指数为111.4点，环比上涨0.5%。分行业看，黑色价格指数止跌反弹，有色价格指数继续上涨。在中国物流与采购联合会重点监 测的50种大宗商品中，价格环比上涨的大宗商品有32种。其中，碳酸锂、工业硅和焦煤的价格较上月分别上涨10.2%、9.8%和9.6%。 央视网消息：中国物流与采购联合会8月5日公布7月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，指数连续三个月环比回升，表明企业生产经营活动 继续回暖，大宗商品市场运行持续稳定恢复，总体保持扩张态势。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]

Economic Growth and Price Stability - The challenges for the second half of the year include stabilizing growth, prices, exports, and investments, requiring continuous counter-cyclical adjustment policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target [1][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June after four months of decline, indicating a need for further policy support to stabilize prices [2][4] - The rise in June's CPI was influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, with oil prices showing a recovery after hitting a low in early May [2][3] Consumer Demand and Industrial Prices - The "two重" and "两新" policies have stimulated domestic demand, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, contributing positively to overall prices [3] - Despite the recovery in consumer goods, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains weak, affecting corporate profitability and potentially limiting investment expansion [3][4] Policy Expectations - Market expectations for policy direction in the second half remain focused on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices, with a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [4] - Fiscal policy will rely on the issuance of government and local bonds to maintain necessary financing growth, supporting sectors like "两重" and "两新" [4]