当地时间8月21日（周四），美股三大股指集体下跌，标普500指数跌0.4%，道指跌0.34%，纳指跌0.34%。标普500指数五连跌，纳指连跌三 天。 全球目光聚焦于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚间10点发表主旨演讲。这一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来 走向的关键时刻。 周四当天，包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在内的决策者，均释放谨慎信号，强调货币政策必须依赖数据， 并不急于降息。 投资者静待鲍威尔重磅讲话 全球目光聚焦于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚间10点发表主旨演讲。这一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来 走向的关键时刻。根据LSEG的数据，交易员对美联储9月降息25个基点的押注已从上周的99.9%骤降至79%。市场人士指出，8月市场交投本就清淡，鲍威尔讲话可 能引发剧烈波动。 周四，标普全球公布的数据显示，受更强劲需求推动，美国制造业PMI以三年多以来最快的速度扩张，制造业的回升也推动包含服务业的综合PMI在8月升至今年以 来的最高水平。同时也加剧了持续的通胀压力——企 ...

此前该指数已因标普全球公布的8月制造业PMI初值受到冲击——该数据攀升3.5点至53.3，创2022年5月 以来新高，远超50的荣枯线，凸显美国制造业正以三年多最快速度扩张，持续加剧通胀压力。 智通财经APP获悉，新兴市场货币周四连续第六日呈现跌势，美国制造业数据强劲叠加美联储官员释放 鹰派信号，令市场对美联储降息的预期进一步承压。如今，市场焦点正转向周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰 克逊霍尔全球央行年会的讲话。 图1 对此，FIM Partners宏观策略主管查理·罗伯逊预测："鲍威尔可能重申关税对通胀的持续影响有限，同时 承认就业市场趋软，这些都将强化市场利率预期。但意外消息或引发避险情绪，削弱新兴市场近期反弹 成果。"此前周三公布的美联储政策会议纪要已显示，通胀担忧持续笼罩市场。 据了解，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克明确表示"若明日需决策，不会支持降息"，受此影 响，衡量新兴市场货币整体表现的重要指标跌至8月初以来最低水平。 股市方面，MSCI新兴市场股指小幅回升0.1%，结束此前两日因美国科技股重挫引发的连跌。然而，债 市则呈现分化：乌克兰美元债券连续第二日下跌，部分投资者在和平谈判相关反弹后获利了结 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于关税政策导致假日季零售价格上涨，消费者对折扣服装和配饰的需求持续增 长，折扣零售商罗斯百货(ROST.US)周四公布的季度利润超出市场预期，同时发布了强劲的年度预测， 这推动了该股股价盘后的大幅上涨。 财报显示，罗斯百货第二季度同店销售额增长2%，且逐月改善。7月因消费者寻求折扣返校服饰和配 饰，需求尤为强劲。在截至8月2日的三个月中，销售额为55.3亿美元，同比增长2%，但略低于市场预 期的55.7亿美元，调整后每股盈利达到1.56美元，超出市场预期2美分。 展望未来，罗斯百货重新发布全年每股收益预期，预计范围为6.08至6.21美元，而市场预期为6.10美 元，该预期已包含每股22至25美分的关税影响;预计第三季度每股收益为1.31至1.37美元，低于市场预期 的1.47美元，但针对关键假日季的第四季度每股收益目标为1.74至1.81美元，高于市场预期的1.69美元。 据悉，该公司曾在5月因关税不确定性撤回全年预测，并透露其超半数商品采购自中国。 随着特朗普实施的关税政策迫使企业提高进口商品售价，折扣零售商吸引了更多注重预算的消费者。从 零售店到餐厅甚至家装卖场，各类主打性价比的连 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's long-term government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield hit 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield approached its historical high of 3.2% [1]. - As of 6 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was at 1.616%, the 20-year yield at 2.649%, and the 30-year yield at 3.197% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver of rising yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [1][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [2][4]. - A significant drop in demand for Japanese bonds has been noted, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds by overseas investors falling to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, just one-third of June's purchases [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a "disastrous" decline in demand, attributed to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][6]. - Despite high yields, overseas investors had been attracted to Japanese bonds earlier this year, with net purchases reaching 9.2841 trillion yen in the first seven months, the highest since records began in 2004 [4]. - However, the trend has reversed since July, with concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market contributing to reduced demand [4][6]. Group 4: Potential Interventions - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the bond market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its quantitative tightening strategy [7]. - The future trajectory of long-term bond yields will depend on monetary policy direction, fiscal expansion pace, and global interest rate environments [7].

8月21日周四，标普全球公布的数据显示，受更强劲需求推动，美国制造业PMI以三年多以来最快的速度扩张，制造业的回升也推动包含服务业的综合PMI 在8月升至今年以来的最高水平。同时也加剧了持续的通胀压力——企业定价能力增强，将关税带来的成本上升越来越多地转嫁给客户。 8月美国Markit PMI数据的初读如下，50为荣枯分水岭。 美国8月Markit制造业PMI初值53.3，为2022年5月以来最高水平，预期49.7，前值49.8。其中： 制造业产出和积压订单指标双双攀升至2022年中以来的高位。新订单指标升至自2024年2月以来的最高水平。 受此推动，制造商加快了招聘，调查显示就业增长为2022年3月以来最强。 由于对贸易政策不确定性下未来供应状况的担忧，工厂成品库存指标升至自2007年有记录以来的最高。 美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值55.4，创2个月新低，预期54.2，前值55.7。其中： 服务业的商业活动指标虽略有回落，但依然保持在健康水平。销售指标创今年以来最快的增速，未完成业务指标则维持在自2022年5月以来的最 强水平。 美国8月Markit综合PMI初值55.4，创9个月新高，预期53.5 ...

来源：滚动播报 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，8月强劲的PMI初值增加了美国企业在第三 季度迄今表现强劲的迹象。数据显示，经济正以2.5%的年化速度扩张，高于上半年平均1.3%的增速。 制造业和服务业都报告了更强劲的需求状况，但难以满足销售增长，导致未完成订单以2022年初以来最 快的速度上升。制成品库存增加也创下纪录，部分原因是对未来供应状况的担忧。随着需求回升推动招 聘激增，这也增强了企业的定价能力。企业因此更大规模地将关税相关成本上涨转嫁给客户，通胀压力 现已达到三年来的最高水平。商品和服务售价的上涨意味着消费者价格通胀在未来几个月将进一步超过 美联储2%的目标。结合商业活动与招聘的回升，调查所反映的价格上涨使PMI数据更接近"加息区间"。 ...

布拉德透露，他已就其美联储主席候选人资格一事与财政部长贝森特进行了沟通，并计划在9月1日劳动 节后安排面谈。对于2026年是否会进一步降息，布拉德称将取决于未来的经济数据。他还强调了保护美 元储备货币地位的必要性。 现任官员观点更显谨慎 美联储主席一职的有力竞争者布拉德（James Bullard）公开呼吁采取激进的降息行动，为市场对美国央 行未来政策路径的预期增添了新的变数。 据媒体报道，布拉德周四建议，美联储应在今年内降息整整一个百分点，即100个基点，并明确指出首 次行动应在9月的议息会议上启动。Bullard目前是普渡大学商学院的院长。 与此同时，亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic则重申了更为温和的观点。他表示，仍预计今年将有一次 降息，与他6月份的预测保持一致。Bostic的谨慎态度突显了美联储内部在面对劳动力市场疲软迹象与 通胀压力并存时的政策分歧。 这些截然不同的观点，恰逢投资者已普遍预期美联储将在9月会议上启动降息周期。期货合约价格显 示，市场认为届时降息25个基点的可能性很高。全球金融市场正处于紧张的观望状态，投资者正屏息以 待即将召开的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，以期从中寻找有关利率 ...

从技术走势来看，金价昨日在3308-3315美元区域获得有效支撑后强势反弹，单日涨幅达40美元，显示下方买盘支撑依然坚实。目前价格重新进入震荡整理 阶段，市场正在寻找下一步方向的线索。 中线观点仍偏空，主要基于月线级别技术形态呈现调整压力。下行方向关键目标依次关注3330、3315、3300及3270美元，终极区间看至3245-3120美元甚至 更低。 短线来看，昨日大涨后多头动能有所释放，进一步上行需有效突破3358-3360美元区域。更强阻力位于3370-3375美元一带，如能突破则可能打开测试3400美 元关口的空间。下行方面，3330美元（0.618黄金分割位与前期次低点重合）成为近期重要支撑，其次是3320美元区域（昨日欧盘起涨点附近）。 黄金目前处于大涨后的整理阶段，上下方均有关键位置约束。投资者应密切关注3330-3360区间的突破情况，在方向明朗前保持耐心，避免追涨杀跌。基本 面方面，继续关注美国通胀数据与美联储政策信号，这些因素将为金价中长期走势提供更多指引。 近期，美国家居零售巨头HomeDepot公布了财报及未来展望，引发市场对成本压力和经济前景的关注。报告显示，美国关税政策导致进口成本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals rose and then fell. After the recent US - Russia talks made progress, all parties continued to promote a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, putting pressure on market risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2] - For silver, after the recent repair of the gold - silver ratio, there is a lack of one - way driving force. The overall market risk preference remains strong, and the Russia - Ukraine talks continue to suppress the market's interest in investing in precious metals. There is a short - term need for a correction [3] - The recently released July Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected, showing that although the transmission effect of trade tariffs is limited, inflation pressure still exists. Traders once reduced their bets on a September interest rate cut. However, federal funds futures still show an 83% probability of a September interest rate cut, reflecting the market's persistent expectation of the Fed's loose policy [3] Group 3: Other Key Points - Trump met with Russian President Putin last Friday and then quickly turned to dialogue with Ukrainian President Zelensky and leaders of many European countries on Monday. He clearly stated that the US will "help" Europe provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the war. He also launched the preparatory work for the "Putin - Zelensky meeting" and planned a subsequent three - party summit including the US [3]