智通财经APP获悉，继今年三次降息之后，澳洲联储周二将现金利率维持在3.6%，这一决定符合市场预 期。澳洲联储警告称，第三季度通胀可能强于预期，未来举措将取决于经济数据，促使交易员减少对近 期降息的押注。 澳洲联储主席Michele Bullock上周在议会作证时表示，澳大利亚国内经济数据"符合"或"强于"澳洲联储 的预期。官员们还注意到，随着私营部门需求回升，经济正处于"周期性复苏"阶段。 澳洲联储利率制定委员会在一份声明中表示："鉴于有迹象表明私人需求正在复苏，部分领域通胀可能 持续存在，且整体劳动力市场状况保持稳定，委员会决定维持当前的现金利率不变。" 交易员们降低了对11月降息的押注，目前概率不到50%，并完全定价下次降息将发生在明年5月，而非 利率决议公布前的明年2月。 利率决议公布后，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.6607 ，而对政策敏感的澳大利亚三年期政府债券收益率则小幅 上升至3.59%。 多伦多道明银行驻新加坡亚太区高级利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示："澳洲联储并未急于下结论。不 过，澳洲联储目前承认经济活动数据持续走强，通胀较为坚挺，房地产市场回暖，以及市场供应趋紧。 所有这些都使 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 上周回顾 2 每周周评 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 | 指 标 | 前 | 收 | 最 | 高 | 最 | 低 | 涨 | 跌 | | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2512 | 856 . | 06 | 862 . | 1 | 829 | 86 . | 26 . | 28 | 3 . | 17 | | 沪银2512 | 10632 | | 10646 | | | 9964 | 694 | 00 . | 6 . | 98 | | 黄金2512 | 3789 . | 8 | 3824 | 6 . | 3718 | 1 . | 84 . | 00 | 2 . | 27 | | 白银2512 | 46 . | 365 | 46 . | 945 | 43 | 37 . | 3 . | 41 | 7 . | 95 | | SGE黄金T+D | 852 . | 9 | 856 . | 7 | 824 ...

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达本周公开批评称，15%的基准利率"甚至不应处于这一水平"，当前经济存在 降息空间。他表示，经济团队正在寻求每年3%以上的 GDP增长率，高利率不仅抑制经济扩张，也威胁 政府在2026年大选年的民众就业和收入目标。 央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波洛（Gabriel Galípolo）此前就通胀目标连续超标向财政部长提交公开信，解 释其原因包括经济过热、汇率波动、电力成本上升及极端气候冲击。加利波洛认为，维持高利率对控制 通胀、保护劳动者购买力至关重要。他强调，"历史经验表明，高通胀才是损害劳动者收入的最大威 胁。在就业和工资保持强劲的情况下，收紧政策仍是必要措施。" 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电 巴西中央银行25日发布的三季度货币政策报告（Monetary Policy Report）将 巴西2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增速预期由2.1%下调至2%。同时，巴西央行首次公布的2026年经济 增速预期仅为1.5%。 报告指出，受持续的高利率政策、全球经济放缓和2025年农业高增长难以延续等因素影响，巴西经济增 长在2026年可能明显减弱。今年下半年，尽管农业和采掘业表现良好，但美国加征关税的 ...

品种观点 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示，我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关，截至 8 月底 达到 36.25 万亿元，单月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下，债券基金规模 小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告，决定将扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体 列入出口管制管控名单，决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，PCE 物价指数 2.6%，显示 出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人， 为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌，2 年 期美债收益率回升，黄金、原油价格上涨。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续反弹，传媒板块领涨，纺织服饰 板块领跌，市场成交额 2.39 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 24 日融资余额增加 140.82 亿元至 24141.23 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了 ...

首席 点 评 ： 公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示，我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关，截至 8 月底达到 36.25 万亿元，单 月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下，债券基金规模小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告，决定将 扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投 资壁垒调查。美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8% ，创近两年新高， PCE 物价指数 2.6% ，显示出通胀 压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人，为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月 降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌， 2 年期美债收益率回升，黄金、原油价格上涨 。 重点品种： 股指、原油、玻璃 原油： SC 夜盘小幅上涨。俄将在年底前对柴油出口实施部分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令。在 乌克兰加强了对众多炼油厂的无人机袭击之后，俄几个地区正面临某些等级燃料的短缺。周四美国劳工 部报告称，上周首次申领失业救济人数减少 1.4 万人至 21.8 万人，预估为 23.3 万人。首次申请失业救 济的 4 周移动均值为 2 ...

美股芯片股突遭猛烈抛售。 今晚，美股开盘后，芯片股集体大跌，费城半导体指数一度大跌超2%，博通、台积电ADR、美光科技 等大跌超2%。其他科技股亦全线走弱，甲骨文一度暴跌超6%。有分析指出，在美联储主席鲍威尔警告 高估值风险后，投资者做多美股科技股的信心正在减弱。 另外，美国政府"关门"的风险持续上升也打击了市场情绪。Polymarket平台的最新数据显示，目前押 注"美国政府在2025年关门"的概率已经升至76%。 芯片股集体大跌 北京时间9月25日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数全线下挫，纳指一度大跌超1%，随后跌幅有所收窄，截 至22:30，道指跌0.18%，纳指跌0.55%，标普500指数跌0.44%。 美股芯片股集体大跌，费城半导体指数一度大跌超2%，Arm大跌超3%，博通、台积电ADR、迈威尔科 技、安森美半导体、美光科技、高通均跌超2%。 美股其他大型科技股亦多数走低，甲骨文一度大跌超6%，特斯拉大跌超3%，Meta跌近2%，微软、谷 歌、Meta均小幅下跌。 另外，美股加密货币概念股全线大跌，嘉楠科技大跌超6%，Coinbase、Circle大跌超2%。消息面上，以 太坊价格暴跌，打击加密货币市场做 ...

当地时间9月25日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.38%，纳指跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.5%。 个股上，甲骨文跌超5%；特斯拉跌超4%，市值一夜蒸发645亿美元（约合人民币4602亿元）；Meta跌超1%；苹果涨超1%。 英特尔大涨近9%。消息面上，英特尔公司已就获得苹果公司的投资事宜与其接触。知情人士称，此举是为加强这家目前部分由美国政府持股的芯片企业的 业务基础。这些知情人士表示，苹果与英特尔还讨论了如何进一步深化合作。相关磋商仍处于早期阶段，未必会达成协议。如果协议达成，这笔交易将延 续近期对英特尔的外部注资浪潮：上周，英伟达宣布出资50亿美元，并计划与英特尔在个人电脑与数据中心芯片上展开合作。上个月，日本科技巨头软银 集团也宣布向英特尔投资20亿美元。 知情人士还称，英特尔已与其他多家公司接触潜在的投资与合作。 美国二季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化季环比终值为2.6%，高于预期的2.5%，前值为2.5%。 有分析指出，这份强劲的报告也显示出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。 华尔街机构指出，最新发布的数据可能会限制美联储未来的降息空间。尽管美联储上周降息了25个基点，并预计今年还将有两 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology falling more than 2% [1][2] - Other tech stocks also declined, with Oracle plunging over 6% and Tesla dropping more than 3% [2] - The overall market sentiment was negatively impacted by concerns over high valuations as highlighted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2] Group 2: Government Shutdown Risk - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of a shutdown occurring by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [3] - The ongoing political standoff between Republicans and Democrats, particularly regarding temporary spending plans, is contributing to this uncertainty [3] Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Recent macroeconomic data revealed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth rate of 3.8%, surpassing the anticipated 3.3% [4][5] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also exceeded expectations, recorded at 2.6% compared to the forecast of 2.5% [4][5] - This robust economic performance raises concerns about persistent inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near future [5] Group 4: Employment Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking the lowest level since July, indicating a relatively healthy labor market [6] - Despite signs of a cooling labor market, the limited number of layoffs suggests that employment risks are not escalating significantly [6]