丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PPI 降幅扩大，"反内卷"势在必行 ——6 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转涨，核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、为 2024 年 5 月以来新高，油价、金价等工业消 费品价格回升是主要拉动。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大、创 2023 年 8 月以来新低，其中，国内需 求疲弱、部分行业产能过剩，煤炭、钢材、水泥降幅扩大是主要拖累。往前看，猪价或维持窄 幅震荡、能源价格面临一定下行压力，CPI 同比回升的关键仍在于居民消费需求的回升；7 月 中央财经委员会直指"内卷式"竞争治理，多行业积极响应，或提振部分行业价格回升，除了 供给侧的优化，加大对国内基建、地产投资以及居民消费等领域支持的需求侧政策同样重要。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title PPI 降幅扩大，"反 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - China's June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a four-month decline, exceeding market expectations[4] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, but the decline was narrower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices stabilized and contributed to the CPI increase, with a reduction in the downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - China's June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The PPI's further decline reflects accumulated supply-side pressures and weak demand[23] - Upstream industrial prices faced significant pressure, with mining industry prices dropping by 13.2% year-on-year[27] Group 3: Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, supported by resilient service prices[20] - Energy prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors[16] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than seasonal expectations by 0.5 percentage points[14]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 通胀数据快评 CPI 同比转正 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 7 月 9 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 6 月 PPI 同比-3.6%，预期-3.2%，前值-3.3%。中国 6 月 CPI 同 比 0.1%，预期 0%，前值-0.1%，环比-0.1%，预期 0%，前值-0.2%。 评论： CPI 同比转正 6 月 CPI 当月同比+0.1%，较上月-0.1%的水平有所回升，这也是 CPI 自 2025 年 1 月以来首次转正。CPI 环 比-0.1%，较上月-0.2%降幅有所收窄。从季节性看，6 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，略好于过去 5 年季节性表现（过 去 5 年环比平均为-0.2%）但仍 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 通胀数据表现偏弱 核心观点 今日国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.19%，10 年期主力 合约涨 0.05%，5 年期主力合约涨 0.03%，2 年期主力合约收平。消息面，统 计局公布了 6 月通胀数据，CPI 同比上涨 0.1%，PPI 同比下降 3.6%，整体表 现偏弱，不利于内需的内生性增长。从宏观经济指标与货币政策的角度来 看，目前国内通胀表现较弱，内需内生性增长动能有所不足，外需易受到关 税因素的冲击，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预 期，国债期货中长期向上趋势仍存。不过考虑到近期股市风险偏好上升导致 的资金分流效应，以及短期内降息预期不强，短期内国债期货上下空间均有 所受限。总的来说，短期内国债期货延续震荡整理为主。 作者声 ...

资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅上行。 技术派，是做右侧，他们不去预测市场，只是跟随市场顺势而为。对技术派来说，贪婪、恐惧和预测是 三大忌， 贪婪、恐惧是人性弱点，而预测是行为弱点 。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250709— "某省压降债券规模"只值0.2bp（-股市盘中站上3500点+股市尾盘回落-传某省压降农 商行债券投资规模+资金面均衡宽松=微上)】 央行公开市场开展755亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有985亿元逆回购到期，净回笼230亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.48%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 07. 09 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | RO01 | 1.38 | | | 3 ...

7月7日，瑞银发布研究报告《全球经济与战略概览——我们收到的9个最棘手的客户问题》，运用其框 架解答了投资者最棘手的问题，其中主要涵盖美国关税对全球及自身的影响。瑞银的报告阐述了一个基 本事实，即外国投资者正在减少对美国资产的敞口，这一观点在市场参与者中已被广泛认同。 这9个问题分别是： 关税如何影响全球增长? 此次美元抛售与以往有何不同? 美国的财政前景是否在推高全球收益率? 有何证据表明资本在从美国撤离? 美国股市与欧洲股市相比，独特性有多强? "One Big Beautiful"法案对美国增长是助力还是阻碍? 各国央行如何应对全球关税升级? 瑞银给出的答案如下： 关税如何影响全球增长? 目前实施的关税相当于对美国进口商征收约1.5%的GDP税，即便达成贸易协议，也很难看出关税会降 低。在关税宣布后，4月全球硬数据和软数据出现大幅背离(差距达到27年高点)，但到5月，由于硬数据 恶化速度快于软数据改善速度，两者开始趋同。我们对全球增长的跟踪预估目前年率仅为1.3%，处于 历史第8低的百分位。美国的领先指标比整体数据更糟，而尽管欧洲经济开放且易受贸易影响，其表现 却出人意料地具有韧性。 此次美元抛售与以往 ...

本文目录 报告正文如下 一 摘要 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。上周（6月30日当周），尽管货币政策委员会二季度例会公告删除择机降息降准表述、股债跷 跷板效应等对债市造成一定利空扰动，但在跨季后资金面超预期宽松以及国债发行缩量支撑下，债市呈现偏暖震荡格局，长债收益率整体小幅 下行。短端利率方面，月初资金面宽松推动机构"卷利差"交易，带动债市短端利率继续下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（7月7日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看，本周即将公布6月通胀数据，受中上旬国际原油价格冲高影响，预计6月通胀数据将 边际改善，但仍将处于低位运行区间，对债市的利空影响料将有限。从资金面来看，尽管央行连续大额净回笼，但月初资金面超预期宽松，带 动资金利率创下新低。若本周资金面延续宽松，短债利率有望进一步下行。整体上看，预计本周债市长端利率将延续震荡行情，且在市场交易 依然拥挤背景下，波动或将加剧，短端利率确定性更高，收益率曲线料继续陡峭化。 上周市场回顾 1.1 二级市场 上周债市偏暖震荡，长债收益率小幅下行。全周看，10年期国债期货主力合约累计上涨0.03%，上周五10年期国债收益率较前周五下行 0.29 ...

文︱陆弃 当前市场普遍预计7月不降息，9月可能是政策拐点。但讽刺的是，这种判断本身就基于"市场对政治博 弈的猜测"，而非真正的经济数据解读。这才是问题的根源——当数据被稀释、政治介入愈深，市场预 期不再建立在基本面之上，而是围绕"特朗普说了什么"和"美联储还能顶多久"。 如今的美联储，正处在一个三重夹击之中。一方面，是特朗普对降息的咄咄逼人，他不惜在公开场合辱 骂鲍威尔为"白痴"；另一方面，是两位联储高官的罕见"倒戈"——鲍曼与沃勒先后暗示，降息可能提前 至7月。这在过去属于罕见操作，透露出美联储内部已不再铁板一块。第三重夹击，更像一颗"慢性毒 药"：特朗普政府对劳工统计局的系统性削弱，使通胀数据越来越基于估算，非但不能精准指导利率政 策，反而可能成为误导。 曾几何时，"美联储独立性"是美国金融体系不可撼动的圣坛。从格林斯潘到耶伦，哪一任主席不是一边 捧着经济学模型，一边死守着不被白宫染指的政策权杖？但2025年的现实是，白宫在"施压"美联储的同 时，也在"掏空"它赖以决策的基础。没有了真实准确的消费价格数据，再理性的央行也会变得目光模 糊、判断迟钝。如果说政策目标是控制通胀和稳就业，那么没有可靠的数据，这一 ...

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The strong employment data has diminished the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July, with the probability dropping from 25% to 4% [3][4] - Market reactions included a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with the 2-year and 5-year yields rising nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield jumping to 4.34% [3] Group 2 - The report indicated that 73,000 of the new jobs were in state and local government, primarily in the education sector, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, suggesting that private sector growth was not as strong as anticipated [3] - Despite the strong employment figures, uncertainties remain regarding trade negotiations, and there are concerns about potential price pressures indicated by the services PMI [4] - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar suggest that dollar-denominated assets may become more attractive, while gold and other safe-haven assets could face pressure [4]