Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September, with a focus on the Federal Reserve officials' upcoming statements [1][12] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitance towards rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [2][4] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [3][5] Group 2 - Goolsbee indicated that more convincing inflation data is needed before confirming the economic outlook [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the idea of two rate cuts this year, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth [7][8] - Daly emphasized the importance of waiting for data before making decisions on the number of rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 to decide on potential rate cuts [10] - Upcoming economic data releases include the August non-farm payrolls on September 5 and the August CPI on September 11 [10] - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding rate cuts, with futures traders pricing in a high likelihood of a September cut and potentially a third cut by year-end [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September interest rate cut window is still the current market's baseline scenario, providing some support for gold prices. The expected US-Russia negotiations have intensified the long-short game in the precious metals market. If the negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices; otherwise, the safe-haven demand may drive up gold prices. The feasibility of an interest rate cut greater than 25bps is low and risky. The subsequent PCE and inflation data may become the indicators for the Fed's interest rate cut. In the medium to long term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline of the US dollar's credit still support gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the potential risks of unexpected outcomes in the US - Russia negotiations, and maintain a long - term strategy of buying on dips. The suggested trading ranges for next week are: 750 - 800 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract, 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract, 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce for the London gold price, and 37.5 - 38.5 US dollars/ounce for the London silver price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, US macro - data fluctuated significantly. Gold prices faced continuous resistance in rising, while silver prices remained relatively firm due to interest rate cut expectations. The July US CPI data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The PPI index released on Thursday showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, which may lead to higher consumer inflation in the future, causing the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September to decline marginally and gold prices to be trapped in a range - bound oscillation [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's September interest rate cut window is the baseline scenario, providing support for gold prices. The US - Russia negotiations will intensify the long - short game. The call for an emergency interest rate cut by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus plan, along with the risk of inflation rebound, make a large - scale interest rate cut less likely. The subsequent PCE data may be affected by the PPI rebound, which could hinder the interest rate cut expectations. In the medium to long term, gold prices are supported by multiple factors, and in the short term, they will fluctuate within a range [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, COMEX silver was at $38.05 per ounce, down 1.19% month - on - month; the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3389.4 per ounce, down 1.99% month - on - month; the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was at 775.80 yuan/gram, down 1.52% month - on - month [13]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 14, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 964.22 tons, while the net holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained basically unchanged at 15100 tons [18]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 449647 contracts, and net positions increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 237050 contracts. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 5.32% month - on - month to 161262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 14.73% month - on - month to 50658 contracts [23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions increased by 3.90% month - on - month to 292194 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 55144 contracts [28]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.6 yuan/gram, up 20.53% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 12 yuan/kilogram, down 58.62% month - on - month [31]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 38622416.43 ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 36045 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory remained basically unchanged at 506441781 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 2.20% month - on - month to 1158387 kilograms [38]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14% month - on - month to 273364.75 kilograms, and silver ore imports dropped significantly by 7.51% month - on - month to 126019303.00 kilograms. Due to the surge in silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise, with the monthly production reaching 4506000.00 pieces in June 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate at 15.80% [40][46]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 14, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 773 yuan/gram, down 0.96% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou gold decreased by 0.79%, 1.18%, and 0.70% week - on - week respectively [62]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases and the high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [64]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The CPI data was slightly lower than expected, and the US dollar index continued to be under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility index declined, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price increased. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate rose slightly this week. In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [68][73][78][82].

行业 锌期货日报 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 日期 2025 年 8 月 14 日 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22460 | 22560 | 22620 | 22450 | 75 | 0.33 | 4550 | -485 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 224 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is fully pricing in the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point reduction due to weak employment data [2][3] - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with expectations for a total reduction of 75 basis points this year exceeding 50% [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's neutral rate [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase for July, reflecting changes in the labor market [4] - The list of potential successors for Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations for leadership changes within the Federal Reserve [5][6] - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year, although caution remains among others regarding inflation targets [6][7]

接下来，市场焦点将转向周五将公布的零售销售月率。有恐怖数据之称的消费者支出晴雨表将成为外界 评估美股经济韧性的重要参考，华尔街预计，7月零售月率环比上升0.5%，较6月回落0.1个百分点，这 可能将成为劳动力市场环境变化的缩影。数据不及预期或进一步加剧外界对美国经济动能的担忧，加大 货币政策转向压力。 美联储主席候选范围扩大 美联储观察工具显示，9月降息的可能性达100%。 事实上，在最新非农报告公布后，降息概率就开始水涨船高。机构已经逐步调整对美联储政策的判断， 包括摩根大通、高盛在内的大行均将美联储今年首次降息时间窗口提前至9月。 当地时间周三，随着市场进一步消化7月通胀数据，利率市场定价完全消化了美联储下月降息的预期。 美国财政部长贝森特向媒体表示，鉴于就业数据疲软，他认为美联储届时有可能大幅降息50个基点，而 不是传统的25个基点。 贝森特当天向媒体表示，美联储去年9月以对就业市场疲软的担忧为理由进行了更大幅度的降息，这一 次也会如此。他的论点源于美国劳工统计局最近发布的就业报告，与5月和6月的初步估计相比，最新数 据下修了超过25万人。"如果在5月和6月看到这些数字，我怀疑我们可能会在6月和7月降息 ...

基本面： 操作思路： 3335--3385区间震荡参与，止损8美元，目标20--30美元 美元指数在通胀数据出炉后全线下跌，盘中最低触及97.89，为7月28日以来新低。这一走软直接受益于温和通胀对降息预期的支撑，同时受到了澳洲联储降 息预期以及英国就业数据强劲的双重影响。通胀的温和走势缓解了市场对关税政策可能推高物价的担忧，尽管特朗普政府曾多次强调关税的影响，但数据显 示其传导效应有限。这为黄金提供了支撑，因为在通胀未失控的环境下，投资者更倾向于将资金转向黄金，以对冲潜在的经济下行风险。通胀数据的公布直 接强化了市场对美联储9月降息的押注。根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，交易员们将9月16日至17日会议上降息的可能性从周一的86%提升至94%。 另外，中美两国将关税休战期延长90天，至11月10日，避免了对彼此商品征收大幅关税，这一消息虽被货币市场基本忽略，却为黄金市场注入了稳定因素。 此前，华盛顿对进口金条征收关税的报道曾推动美国期金在上周五创下历史新高，但特朗普在社交媒体上明确表示不会对进口金条征税，导致周一金价下跌 超过2%。如今，休战延长期的决定缓解了贸易紧张局势，减少了通胀上行的潜在风险。 整体 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data shows a mixed picture with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 98% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Fed should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision [2] - Analysts predict a total of six rate cuts by the Fed, with three expected this year and one each quarter next year, ultimately bringing the rate down to 3% [2] Stock and Commodity Movements - U.S. stock markets rallied, with the S&P reaching a historical high, while the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields declined [4] - Gold experienced volatility post-CPI data, remaining within a trading range of $3330 to $3360 [4][5] Gold Market Analysis - After a significant drop in gold prices, the market showed reduced volatility, with trading primarily around $3350 [5] - The outlook for gold suggests a challenging environment for bulls, with potential downward targets set at $3330, $3315, and ultimately $3245 [7] - Short-term strategies indicate a focus on buying on dips while maintaining short positions at higher levels [10] Silver Market Insights - Silver showed stronger rebound potential compared to gold, with a focus on short positions after a brief rally [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the July CPI data in the U.S., indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to expectations, which increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [3][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. July CPI Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [3]. Factors Influencing CPI - The primary driver for the CPI increase was a 0.2% rise in housing costs, while food prices remained stable and energy prices fell by 1.1% [7]. - Prices for used cars and trucks increased by 0.5%, while new car prices remained unchanged [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock index futures rose, indicating market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation data may allow the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with some predicting a significant cut of 50 basis points due to concerns over the labor market [11]. - The article highlights that while tariffs have an impact, the overall inflation pressure appears manageable, which is seen as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [11].

有迹象显示，随着大体温和的美国7月通胀报告，增强了交易员押注美联储会很快降息的信心。美联储9 月议息会议的悬念，已开始逐渐从"是否降息"变为了"降息多少"…… 一些业内人士眼下甚至已更为看好美联储届时大幅下调利率的可能性。而美国财长贝森特隔夜的一番鸽 派言辞施压，也可能进一步加剧美联储内部的博弈。 贝森特周二表示，他希望参议院能够在9月下次会议之前，确认现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米 兰填补美联储理事会的临时空缺。 市场对美联储大手笔降息的押注升温 从美国固收市场的变动看，数周以来，投资者也已不断涌入掉期、期权和直接做多美国国债的仓位，押 注美联储能在未来几个月降低借贷成本。 他们的预测在周二得到了初步证实：与利率预期关联最紧密的2年期美债收益率，在7月温和的通胀数据 公布后下跌4个基点至3.73%，而掉期交易员则将9月降息的概率上调到了90%以上。 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，7月剔除食品和能源的美国核心CPI环比上涨0.3%。这一数据与经济学家 的预测一致，整体CPI的环比涨幅也符合预期。 "或许仅仅是通胀数据未出现意外上行，就足以让市场继续预期更多降息，"CreditSights投资级和宏观经 济策 ...

黄金周二（8月12日）亚欧盘在3341-3359区间内反复震荡，美盘前向下刺破3341下跌至3336附近，美盘初受数据影响快速上涨3358附近受阻下跌，美盘最低 下跌3331附近后回升，随后再次上涨3359受阻回落3345，尾盘维持在3345-3351区间震荡，日线收出一根带有上下影线的小阳线。 点位上，若行情守住3331并展开反弹，上方首先要关注3360/3361附近的阻力。该位置不仅是周一大跌后行情反复震荡受阻的区域，同时也是黄金从3409下 跌至3331这一波段的黄金分割0.382位置。其次，需关注3370以及3379/3380附近的阻力，这两个位置分别对应着黄金分割的0.5和0.618位置。 一、基本面 1、美国通胀数据：7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比涨幅为2.7%，基本符合市场预期；核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比达3.1%，为今年1月以 来最大涨幅。整体显示通胀压力缓和，支持美联储降息路径，缓解市场对关税推高物价的担忧，支撑黄金，同时美元走软降低黄金购买成本，吸引国际买 家。 2、美联储降息预期：通胀数据公布后，市场对美联储9月降息的押注增强，根据芝商所的FedWatch工具 ...