1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Weak Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Weak Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways [7] 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for steel has declined, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure has been well - relieved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has significantly narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory still suppresses plate prices [1]. - The spot supply - demand of iron ore is tight, and ore prices are oscillating upwards. This week, iron ore shipments have slightly declined, port inventories have continued to rise, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month. Steel mill profits have continued to decline and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet been transmitted to ore prices [2]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is becoming more relaxed, and prices are oscillating. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the sentiment in the coke market. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been significantly pressured [3][4]. - The procurement of thermal coal for essential needs is maintained, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coils closed at 3304 yuan/ton. The spot trading of steel was average yesterday, weaker than the day before [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to production cuts and profit changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The cumulative turnover of iron ore at major national ports was 1.033 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.95%. The cumulative turnover of forward - looking spot was 1.542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.55% [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments slightly declined, port inventories continued to rise, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, and steel mill profits declined and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet affected ore prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the coke market sentiment. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been pressured. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal has slightly increased, and supply - demand contradictions are gradually accumulating. The cost support for coke has weakened, and the market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to coking profits and cost changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating strongly. The shipments of large stations and power plants are stable, and some coal mines have smooth sales. The supply is gradually tightening, supporting coal prices. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, and downstream procurement demand is cold. The inventory at northern ports has rapidly accumulated, and the pressure on traders to sell has increased. The import coal bidding price has decreased, and the market expectation for January is not good [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, there has been more wait - and - see sentiment, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - **Demand**: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - **Summary**: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has poor sentiment, and steel prices continue to decline. The iron ore market has weakening demand expectations, and prices are oscillating downward. The coking coal and coke market has average sentiment, and prices are oscillating downward. The动力煤 market has prices rising, with short - term upward momentum [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3265 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel trading was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.27 tons. The trading volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the North and South increased slightly [1]. - Supply and demand logic: The cost of rebar still provides support, and there is a possibility of more favorable policies. The profit of hot - rolled coil is better than that of rebar, so the output is relatively high. As steel mills have profits, the willingness to cut production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts by steel mills increases, and there are occasional environmental protection restrictions in the North [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 146.1 tons, a 12.99% increase from the previous period; the forward - looking spot trading volume was 72.2 tons, a 22.57% decrease [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The arrival volume of iron ore this week increased significantly by 58.6%. The overall iron ore valuation is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening and generally loose, and the ore price is under downward pressure. However, supported by downstream restocking demand, there is no clear trend in the short term. With steel mills' loss - driven production cuts, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and the price faces correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The black commodity sector oscillated weakly, and the closing prices of coking coal and coke futures both declined slightly. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise to a high level, and the trading atmosphere was average, with downstream players mainly in a wait - and - see mode [5]. - Logic and view: For coking coal, due to safety inspections, the supply in some producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall output is low, with the supply shortage pressure not significantly alleviated. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, but the expectation of a new round of coke price increases has risen, and the inventory - building willingness of some enterprises has increased. For coke, affected by the rising coal price, coke enterprises are still operating at a loss, and some have maintenance plans, so the supply has contracted to some extent. On the demand side, the price of finished steel has declined recently, and the profit of steel mills has shrunk significantly, but the market's expectation of rising raw material prices has increased, and the procurement plan has increased compared with before, providing some support for the coke price [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating [6]. - Coke: Oscillating [6]. 动力煤 Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, the coal price is still strong. Affected by safety inspections, the supply is tight. Downstream procurement is active, and the inventory of coal mines is decreasing. Miners believe that due to safety inspections and heating demand, the supply - demand mismatch will continue, and the price is difficult to decline in the short term. At ports, affected by the rising upstream prices, the quoted prices are firm, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand and is resistant to high - priced coal. Although railway transportation has increased and port inventory has accumulated, the accumulation rate is low. With the continuous price increase of upstream coal mines, the arrival cost has risen, so there is a shortage of low - priced coal resources, and the price will continue to rise in the short term. In the import market, the price is also strong, and the price difference between domestic and imported coal is still large, so imported coal still has an advantage [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by the situation in the producing areas, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern, but with the approaching of the winter heating season, attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. Strategy - No strategy provided [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - **Supply**: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - **Profit**: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - **Valuation**: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - **Inventory**: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - **Profit**: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - **Summary**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - **Demand**: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - **Profit**: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - **Summary**: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Steel prices have strengthened, with a rebound of 100 yuan per ton from the low. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has recovered well this week, approaching last year's level, but the off - balance - sheet demand is lower year - on - year. Plate inventories are high, and steel mill profits are falling, which will suppress production. The 1 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to recover at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils). The coking coal long - hot - rolled coil short arbitrage has widened, and the arbitrage position can be held [1]. Summaries by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3200 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil rose from 3265 to 3312 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices have changed, with steel billet rising by 30 to 2960 yuan. Profits of various steel products in different regions have declined. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropped from - 5 to - 12 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a 1.0% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a - 1.7% decline. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 3.2 to 12.3, a 35.5% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a 2.0% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, iron ore futures stabilized and rebounded. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side has weakening demand for restocking due to falling steel mill profits and decreasing pig iron output. The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering but lower than expected. After the previous callback, the negative factors have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with a reference range of 770 - 830. Recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. Summaries by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.0, a 12.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased. For example, the price of PB powder rose from 778 to 792 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a - 19.5% decline, and the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a 1.6% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly outputs also decreased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 54.7 to 14423.59, a 0.4% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a 1.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures showed an upward trend. For coke, the second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and there is still room for further increase. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the price has risen, resulting in increased costs for coke production and reduced coke production. Steel mill demand is weak, and inventories are in a state of mixed changes. For coking coal, the spot price is rising, supply is tight due to production cuts, and there is restocking demand after de - stocking. Speculatively, go long on the 2601 contract of coke in the range of 1650 - 1850 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1561 to 1612 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coke rose from 1758 to 1780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts also increased. For example, the price of Mongolia 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1318 to 1329 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal rose from 1249 to 1264 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants dropping from 65.3 to 64.6 tons. Coking coal production also decreased, with the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines dropping from 854 to 848 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased from 241.0 to 239.9 tons, indicating weakening demand for coke [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventory remained stable overall, with coking plants and steel mills de - stocking and ports increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory showed mixed changes, with coal mines and steel mills de - stocking and coking plants and ports increasing inventory [5].