Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Steel prices have strengthened, with a rebound of 100 yuan per ton from the low. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has recovered well this week, approaching last year's level, but the off - balance - sheet demand is lower year - on - year. Plate inventories are high, and steel mill profits are falling, which will suppress production. The 1 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to recover at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils). The coking coal long - hot - rolled coil short arbitrage has widened, and the arbitrage position can be held [1]. Summaries by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3200 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil rose from 3265 to 3312 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices have changed, with steel billet rising by 30 to 2960 yuan. Profits of various steel products in different regions have declined. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropped from - 5 to - 12 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a 1.0% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a - 1.7% decline. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 3.2 to 12.3, a 35.5% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a 2.0% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, iron ore futures stabilized and rebounded. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side has weakening demand for restocking due to falling steel mill profits and decreasing pig iron output. The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering but lower than expected. After the previous callback, the negative factors have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with a reference range of 770 - 830. Recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. Summaries by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.0, a 12.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased. For example, the price of PB powder rose from 778 to 792 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a - 19.5% decline, and the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a 1.6% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly outputs also decreased [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 54.7 to 14423.59, a 0.4% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a 1.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures showed an upward trend. For coke, the second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and there is still room for further increase. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the price has risen, resulting in increased costs for coke production and reduced coke production. Steel mill demand is weak, and inventories are in a state of mixed changes. For coking coal, the spot price is rising, supply is tight due to production cuts, and there is restocking demand after de - stocking. Speculatively, go long on the 2601 contract of coke in the range of 1650 - 1850 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1561 to 1612 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coke rose from 1758 to 1780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts also increased. For example, the price of Mongolia 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1318 to 1329 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal rose from 1249 to 1264 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants dropping from 65.3 to 64.6 tons. Coking coal production also decreased, with the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines dropping from 854 to 848 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased from 241.0 to 239.9 tons, indicating weakening demand for coke [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventory remained stable overall, with coking plants and steel mills de - stocking and ports increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory showed mixed changes, with coal mines and steel mills de - stocking and coking plants and ports increasing inventory [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - **RB2601 and HC2601**: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - **J2601**: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - **JM2601**: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - **I2601**: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - **Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - **Raw Coal and Coke Production**: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - **Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost**: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - **Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - **Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - **Transportation Cost**: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing shrinking profit margins and falling prices due to high costs and low steel prices, with an expected increase in steel production cuts [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with prices oscillating downward. The expected increase in long - term supply and the rising number of loss - making steel mills are factors to watch [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weakening demand expectations, with prices oscillating. The supply and demand dynamics of both are affected by factors such as steel mill profits and production levels [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a short - term price increase due to demand boost, but the long - term supply remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading volume was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 9.14 tons, a daily decrease of 3.37% and a weekly decrease of 23.79% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel supply is driven by fundamentals. High costs and falling steel prices have squeezed profit margins, and some steel mills' rebar businesses are in the red. High production and inventory levels have increased the expectation of production cuts [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. The spot price in Tangshan ports declined, and trading volume was down 33.08% to 124.4 tons. The forward - looking spot trading volume increased by 90.65% to 173.5 tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore arrivals increased, iron - water production remained high, and port inventory rose slightly. Due to the high probability of increased long - term supply and high price valuations, attention should be paid to the negative impact of steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect prices to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures main contracts oscillated. The coal price in the main production areas continued to rise, and some terminal demand for restocking was released. The import market was strong [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking enterprise profits are near the break - even point. High iron - water production provides short - term support for coke prices, but the demand outlook is weak. After the holiday, coking coal production has recovered, and demand remains resilient [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to increased demand from metallurgical and chemical industries, restocking demand, and rising prices from large groups. In ports, the market sentiment was positive, and prices increased. The import market was stable to strong, and prices were more competitive [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term prices will oscillate due to demand boost, but the long - term supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].