Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a decline, with the main contract down approximately 2% amid ongoing weak domestic conditions, despite some support from news regarding the improvement of the domestic copper resource reserve system [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The night trading session for copper saw a downturn, with the morning session reflecting weak fluctuations [2] - The main contract for copper has experienced a drop of around 2% [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - After a period of pessimistic sentiment, copper prices returned to a high range due to supportive news regarding the domestic copper resource reserve system [2] - However, the continuation of weak domestic realities has resulted in a lack of upward momentum for copper prices [2] Group 3: Risk Factors - The overall risk sentiment in the market is weakening, contributing to the decline in copper prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The copper price continued to rise due to news - related stimuli and the rebound of non - ferrous and precious metals. The news of copper resource reserve announced the previous day brought long - term benefits to copper. After market sentiment stabilizes, copper will remain strong at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3%. The news that China will improve the copper resource reserve system and the halt of some copper smelting projects, along with the rebound of external precious metals, stimulated the copper price to rise. In terms of fundamentals, the electrolytic copper output in January was 1179300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. The output in February is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market was affected by purchase tax [1]. - The Chilean National Copper Commission Cochilco raised the 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the average copper price to reach $4.95 per pound [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3% [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 180 yuan/ton. On February 3, 2026, the LME official price was $13360/ton, and the spot premium was - 65 dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 159800 tons, an increase of 751 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90300 tons, a decrease of 8600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 176100 tons, an increase of 1450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 582300 short tons, an increase of 2050 short tons from the previous period [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report After a significant decline, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded with the gold price. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, demand is weakening. For enterprises with buy-hedging needs, they can conduct a small amount of hedging, but the position should not be too heavy. It is expected that the copper price will range between RMB 98,000/ton and RMB 110,000/ton before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market On February 3, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at RMB 101,490/ton and closed at RMB 104,500/ton, a 6.01% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 104,950/ton and closed at RMB 105,180/ton, a 3.49% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.2 Spot Market In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders lowered the premium. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around RMB 400/ton. The prices in Shanghai and Changzhou markets for some brands dropped to a premium of around RMB 350/ton and were then pressured to RMB 320 - 340/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of RMB 380 - 400/ton with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around RMB 420/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of RMB 300 - 320/ton, which stimulated downstream purchases. The market's purchase sentiment index rose to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index rose to 3.29. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] 3.3 Important News and Information 3.3.1 Macro and Geopolitical The US White House stated that the talks with Iran later this week will proceed as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks to Oman and hold them bilaterally. The US government ended its partial shutdown after the President signed the appropriation bill [3] 3.3.2 Federal Reserve Fed Governor Milan believes that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasizes that monetary policy should remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [3] 3.3.3 Mining Rome Resources reported encouraging results for copper and tin from metallurgical tests on its Bisie North project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Drilling in Kalayi is ongoing, and the company will move to Mont Agoma next month [4] 3.3.4 Domestic Policy The deputy secretary-general of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism, and considering including copper concentrates in the reserve [4][5] 3.3.5 Consumption In January 2026, copper product consumption showed pre - holiday rush but with sector differentiation. The power sector was supported by State Grid orders, the home appliance industry was strong due to the year - end peak season, the automotive sector was stable, while the construction and hardware sectors were dragged down by the real estate slump. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, and the overall stocking rhythm was earlier and more cautious than in previous years. In February, with the approaching Spring Festival, consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [5][6] 3.3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 176,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 159,021 tons. On February 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 33.04 million tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous week [6] 3.4 Price and Related Data | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Flat Copper) | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | Yangshan Premium | LME (0 - 3) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Today)** | - 120 - - 100 | - 130 | - 230 | 43 | - 59 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Yesterday)** | - 130 - - 110 | - 150 | - 240 | 45 | - 90 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (Last Week)** | - 265 - - 235 | - 285 | - 335 | 22 | - 71 | | **Spot (Premium/Discount) (One Month Ago)** | - 190 - - 150 | - 225 | - 285 | 49 | 39 | | | LME | SHFE | COMEX | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Inventory (Today)** | 176,125 | 233,004 | 525,962 | 159,021 | 21.68% | | **Inventory (Yesterday)** | 174,675 | | 524,102 | 158,527 | 23.89% | | **Inventory (Last Week)** | 172,350 | 225,937 | 513,145 | 144,908 | 26.23% | | **Inventory (One Month Ago)** | 142,550 | | 453,448 | 81,775 | 24.98% | | | CU05 - CU02 (Continuous Third - Near Month) | CU03 - CU02 (Main - Near Month) | CU03/AL03 | CU03/ZN03 | Import Profit | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Today** | 690 | 360 | 4.39 | 4.19 | - 536 | 7.64 | | **Yesterday** | 880 | 890 | 4.28 | 4.02 | - 532 | 7.93 | | **Last Week** | 830 | 320 | 4.22 | 4.11 | - 655 | 7.73 | | **One Month Ago** | - 420 | - 560 | 4.29 | 4.22 | - 792 | 7.86 | [26][27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded significantly after digesting the impact of precious metal adjustments, but the copper market still faces challenges such as weak spot fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. The price may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, but the adjustment will lay a solid foundation for the medium - to long - term rise of copper prices [1]. - Alumina oscillated weakly, while aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range repair state, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - Nickel prices rose. Although the phased demand has weakened, the cost support remains strong, and there may be opportunities to try long positions lightly near the cost line [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: The dovish - leaning Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the partial shutdown of the US government is expected to end [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1450 tons to 176,125 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2284 tons to 528,252 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons to 153,021 tons, and BC copper remained at 10,615 tons [1]. - Demand: As copper prices adjusted, the purchasing willingness increased significantly [1]. - News: The deputy secretary - general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina oscillated weakly, AO2605 closed at 2806 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; aluminum alloy AD2603 closed at 22,300 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; Shanghai aluminum AL2603 closed at 23,865 yuan/ton, up 1.47% [1]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel rose 2.05% to $17,395/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 2.34% to 135,770 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained at 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons to 48,180 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Nickel ore and nickel - iron prices strengthened in trading, and the supply may be tight. The cost support is rising. Although the demand is weakening, the price is expected to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 870 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 1450 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 494 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1860 tons [3]. Lead - Price: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 28,775 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4021 tons [3]. Aluminum - Price: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased, and the price of ADC12 in South China decreased by 200 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 253 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 900 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil in Wuxi decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1606 tons, and social inventory increased by 2784 tons [4]. Zinc - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 1.0%, and the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 increased by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory decreased by 125 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.38 million tons [6]. Tin - Price: The main settlement price decreased by 9.1%, and the price of SMM spot decreased by 10,850 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 10 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premium and discount, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals [11][12][19]

Copper - Copper prices stabilized and increased overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure [2] - LME copper inventory rose by 1,450 tons to 176,125 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,284 tons to 528,252 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts grew by 494 tons to 153,021 tons [2] - Demand for copper has rebounded significantly as purchasing willingness increased with price adjustments [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested enhancing the copper resource reserve system, including expanding national copper strategic reserves [2] - Despite a significant rebound in copper prices, the market faces challenges such as weak fundamentals, accumulating inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival [2] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.05% to $17,395 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.34% to 135,770 yuan per ton [13] - LME nickel inventory remained at 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,606 tons to 48,180 tons [13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices showed strong transactions, indicating potential supply tightness [13] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,806 yuan per ton, down 0.14% [15] - SHFE aluminum prices increased, with AL2603 rising by 1.47% to 23,865 yuan per ton [15] - Recent maintenance in various regions has led to a gradual accumulation of aluminum oxide inventory [15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,815 yuan per ton, down 0.62% [16] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract rising by 6.61% to 50,000 yuan per ton [16] - The supply of silicon ore is expected to shrink as companies enter winter maintenance [16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 4.63% to 148,100 yuan per ton, while spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2,000 yuan to 153,500 yuan per ton [17] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [17] - Market sentiment has improved slightly, but caution is advised due to recent price declines and potential supply disruptions from U.S. strategic mineral reserve projects [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive sentiment, a tight copper - mine supply, and high growth in domestic refined copper supply [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise as LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, despite weak downstream demand [5][6]. - The lead industry's current situation is weak with rising inventories, but the higher - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI has alleviated some panic [8][9]. - Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [10][11][12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend but will mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and rising inventory [13][14]. - Nickel prices are expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term as they face fundamental pressure and increasing domestic nickel inventory [16][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly supported by off - season de - stocking, but due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt [20][21]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change, and there are multiple dilemmas for continuous rebound [23][24]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise as the cost support is strong and the supply is shrinking [26][27]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of LME copper 3M rose 3.95% to $13,410/ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 105,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, with the increase from Asian warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and the Cash/3M discount narrowed. SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong regions was at a discount to the futures, and the spot import was at a loss of about 500 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 3,280 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With the US planning to promote the commercial reserve of critical minerals and China strengthening the copper reserve expectation, along with better - than - expected manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone, the sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, long - term prospects are not pessimistic. The copper - mine supply remains tight, and the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range of the main SHFE copper contract is 102,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,800 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of LME aluminum rose 1.39% to $3,099/ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 23,865 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted SHFE aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 676,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 151,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated up, and the spot trading was dull. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 495,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and downstream demand is weak in the off - season, it does not constitute a major negative for prices. With the LME aluminum inventory at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remaining high, aluminum prices are strongly supported. In the context of eased market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise. The reference range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,500 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 3,050 - 3,130 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 16,670 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 105,900 lots. The LME lead 3S rose by 13.5 to $1,973/ton, with a total position of 170,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot and recycled refined lead was 16,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 33,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 204,100 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, high - price silver supports smelting profits, and the TC remains at a low level. The operating rate of primary lead smelters remains relatively high, and primary lead ingots are accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste materials has increased, the profit of recycled smelting has slightly decreased, but the operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has slightly decreased. Both smelter finished - product inventory and social inventory have increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2nd was higher than expected, which alleviated some panic [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 1.91% to 24,993 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 203,800 lots. The LME zinc 3S rose by 79.5 to $3,348/ton, with a total position of 235,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 25,050 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,100 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the industrial aspect, the inventory of zinc ore raw materials has increased, and the decline of zinc ore prices has slowed down. The accumulation of LME zinc ingot inventory has slowed down, the 3 - 15 month spread of LME zinc has increased, and the SHFE - LME ratio has declined again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the cost of European smelters. The new government in Bolivia has halted a zinc - mine development project. Currently, the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase following the sector. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [11][12]. Tin Market Information - On February 3rd, the tin price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 383,340 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory decreased by 209 to 7,788 tons. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The downstream demand was still weak as the overall price was at a high level, and the terminal industry faced cost pressure [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the price of precious metals has stabilized and rebounded, and the tin price has also recovered. In the long term, the tin price will maintain an upward trend, but in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the recent rise in inventory. It is recommended to observe. The reference range of the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 51,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 3rd, the nickel price stabilized and rebounded. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 134,830 yuan/ton, up 4.0% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron fluctuated up [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the price of precious metals has stabilized and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector have generally recovered, the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is expected to be limited. Due to the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the conversion of nickel iron to high - grade nickel matte, the output of refined nickel in January is expected to increase significantly. The domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. The reference range of the SHFE nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 146,173 yuan in the evening session, up 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,050 yuan (+3.57%), and the industrial - grade increased by 3.46%. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,100 yuan, up 11.82% from the previous day [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the pessimistic sentiment in the commodity market eased, and the market rebounded significantly. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production of the cathode segment is expected to decrease by only about 10% month - on - month. After the short - term price risk is released, with the low inventory of downstream enterprises, the bargaining power for pre - festival raw material procurement is low. The off - season de - stocking is expected to strongly support the lithium price. Due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt. The reference range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 137,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On February 3rd, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.31% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 531,600 lots, down 27,000 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 254 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.72 to 189,400 tons. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and that in Australia decreased by 2 to $58/ton [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. Currently, production and shipping are normal, and the impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market's expectation of supply - contraction policies has increased, but there are still three dilemmas for continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply - contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,585 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.23% (+165). The unilateral position was 240,600 lots, down 11,405 lots from the previous day. The spot prices in different markets varied, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons, and the social inventory increased to 904,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.86% [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Last week, market fluctuations increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious - metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, impacting market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The supply side has significantly contracted. The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged, and the reference range of the main contract is 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized and rebounded. The main AD2603 contract closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, the trading volume was 23,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08 to 66,900 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory increased by 0.01 to 41,400 tons [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has stabilized. Although the demand is relatively average, the price is supported in the short term due to continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Copper concentrate is expected to be included in the strategic reserve scope, enhancing the status of key metals [8] - The global average copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained tight supply trend, which may further elevate copper's status as a critical metal [8] - The "anti-involution" policy in copper smelting remains unchanged, with expectations for copper prices and smelting fees to rise in the medium term [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The copper resource reserve system is being improved, with plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms. The import dependency of domestic copper concentrate has reached 75%, indicating a need for enhanced supply chain security [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major copper mining companies have reported a decline in copper production due to falling ore grades. The insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies and the decreasing rate of significant copper resource discoveries suggest that supply will not increase significantly in the medium term. Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors and emerging fields like renewable energy is expected to grow [8] Policy and Market Trends - The domestic copper smelting capacity is being strictly controlled, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects halted. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually show effects in the next two to three years, leading to a potential upward correction in smelting fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its large resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [8] - For copper smelting, attention is drawn to Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is expected to benefit from increased copper concentrate self-sufficiency and improved spot smelting fee expectations. Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) is also mentioned [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on February 3 saw more declines than gains, with palladium leading the rise by over 8%, followed by polysilicon with over 6% and shipping indices by over 5% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1670.40 points, down 58.34 points or 3.37% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Market sentiment improved after significant declines, with palladium futures rising by 8.62% and platinum by over 3% due to international precious metal price increases [2] - The EU is considering banning imports of Russian platinum and other metals, raising concerns about supply tightness in platinum group metals, which contributed to the price surge [2][3] - The recent volatility in precious metals is attributed to forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying, but long-term drivers remain intact, suggesting a potential stabilization phase for gold [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon futures experienced a significant increase, closing with a 6.61% rise, driven by price adjustments from leading companies [3] - Reports indicate that major polysilicon producers are discussing capacity optimization and price adjustments, with some prices reportedly exceeding 62000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - The shipping index and lithium carbonate saw increases of over 5% and 4% respectively, while copper futures rose by over 2% [1][4] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is working on improving copper resource reserve systems, including expanding national strategic reserves and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [4][6] Group 5: Silver and Other Metals - Silver futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract down 16.71%, reflecting ongoing market adjustments after previous overbuying [5] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector remains weak, with tin futures down over 6%, and demand in traditional sectors like power and home appliances showing weakness [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪释放，盘面反弹 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日低开高走，收盘上涨近 3%。消息面上，今日中国有色金属工业协会举行 2025 年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会，会上提到要完善铜资源储备体系建设， 一方面扩大国家铜战略储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方 式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备，市场有信息说已叫停部分铜冶炼项目，受消息面刺 激及外盘贵金属的止跌反弹，今日铜价上行。基本面来看， 1 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.93 万吨，环比增加 0.12 万吨，升幅为 0.10%，同比上升 16.32%。SMM 调研 2 月无冶 炼厂进行检修，个别冶炼厂 1 月底检修结束，2 月产量仍然受到影响，预计产量环比减 少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。1 月份高位铜价抑制铜需求，下游多刚 需采购为主，终端新能源市场因购置税影响而表现不佳，其他传统行业及电力行业仍显 韧性。综合来看，短期内有色金属及贵金属盘面出现大涨大跌极端行情，美联储主席的 新人选提名影响美元走势而造成铜价的大幅下挫，市场出现恐慌性 ...

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