文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 6 月 27 日，央行发布 2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得如下。 核心观点 1 、与一季度相比，例会的哪些变化值得关注？ ①在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来"，并增加了"把 做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系"这一表述。 ②在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活把握政策实施力度和节奏的表述"。 ③汇率表述上，央行删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进 行处置"的表述。 2 、与一季度相比，例会的哪些不变值得关注？ 在货币政策态度上，央行维持了"货币政策适度宽松"的表述，但同时，央行也维持了"畅通货币政策传导机 制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。" 3 、我们如何理解的当下的货币政策 ①从货币政策投放的目的上，当下央行投放流动性不止是支持商业银行信用扩张能力，同时还有稳定股债 市场流动性的诉求。 ②从货币政策投放 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 关注例会提法的变与不变 ——2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会学习 事 项 6月 27日，央行发布 2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得 如下。 核心观点 宏观研究 1、与一季度相比，例会的哪些变化值得关注？ ①在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革 有机结合起来"，并增加了"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好 总供给和总需求的关系"这一表述。 ②在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活把握政策实施 力度和节奏的表述"。 ③汇率表述上，央行删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏， 坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述。 2、与一季度相比，例会的哪些不变值得关注？ 在货币政策态度上，央行维持了"货币政策适度宽松"的表述，但同时，央行 也维持了"畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。" 3、我们如何理解的当下的货币政策 ①从货币政策投放的目的上，当下央行投放流动性不止是支持商业银行信用扩 张能力，同时还有稳定股债市场流动性的诉求。 ②从货币政策投放的数量上，重点关注居民存款搬家的力 ...

中国商报（记者 彭婷婷 李沫楠）6月27日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会公布，传递出下半年货币政策与汇率调控的重要信号。面对复杂的国内外经济形 势，本次例会在经济形势判断、政策思路及汇率政策表述上均有微调，引发市场广泛关注。 针对国内经济形势，会议指出， 我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行、风险 隐患较多等困难和挑战。 01 灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏 央行二季度货币政策例会延续适度宽松基调，但相较一季度在表述上有所微调。 一季度例会提出"择机降准降息"，明确政策方向并引发市场对落地时点的关注；二季度例会则提出"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活 把握政策实施的力度和节奏"， 不再单纯聚焦降准降息，而是强调政策整体的灵活调整。 例会明确，要实施适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保持经济稳定增长和 物价处于合理水平。 中国民生银行研究院宏观研究中心主任王静文对中国商报记者表示， 从必要性来看，当前货币宽松的紧迫性并不强，预计二季度GDP约能增长5.2%左 右，如此下半年只 ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

今年上半年，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持银行体系流动性充裕；灵活把握公开市场 操作力度和节奏，及时熨平财政税收、政府债券发行等短期波动因素，维护货币市场利率平稳运行。 本报记者 刘琪 今年以来，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）实施适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用存款准备金、公开市场操作、中期借贷 便利（MLF）、再贷款再贴现等工具，保持流动性充裕，为推动经济持续回升向好提供了适宜的流动性环境。6月初，央行在 官网增设了中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况表，这一举措使政策更加透明，有效引导并稳定市场预期。 多位受访专家一致认为，下半年，货币政策有望在适度宽松方向进一步发力，年内仍有进一步降准降息的空间，国债买卖 操作也存在重启的可能。 多种工具协同呵护流动性 下半年降准降息仍有空间 "年初以来，央行已通过降准、结构性工具投放及灵活调节流动性等手段，精准支持实体经济，重点聚焦科技创新、绿色 发展及中小企业融资等关键领域。"工银国际首席经济学家程实在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，展望下半年，我国货币 政策有望保持宽松取向，预计年内仍存在一次降息的可能，幅度或在10个基点至20个基点；另外可能 ...

内容提要 5月，货币市场日均交易量及余额继续增加，主要回购利率下行，大型商业银行日均净融出余额续增。债券发行减少、净融资增加，债券交易环比增加，收 益率震荡上行，曲线熊陡。利率互换曲线整体上移，成交环比小幅增加。 一、货币市场日均交易量及余额继续增加，主要回购利率下行，大型商业银行日均净融出余额续增 （一）货币市场日均交易量环比增加 5月货币市场成交总量为136.5万亿元（环比减少4.6%），日均成交7.2万亿元（环比增加10.4%）。 （二）资金面均衡偏松，资金利率中枢下行 5月，降准降息双双落地，资金面整体均衡偏松。央行5月8日降息10bp，15日降准0.5个百分点、释放10000亿元资金。同时，央行在公开市场连续多日净投 放资金，MLF提量续做5000亿元，逆回购净回笼2152亿元（含买断式逆回购投放7000亿元、到期9000亿元），国库现金定存净投放2400亿元，全月整体净 投放13998亿元。 主要回购利率大幅下行。DR001、R001月度加权均值分别环比下行17bp、下行17bp至1.5%和1.54%；DR007、R007月度加权均值分别环比下行13bp、下行 12bp至1.6%和1.64%。全月 ...

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 20 日 5 月交易盘止盈情绪升温 银行大量承接供给带来负债压力 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 —— 2025 年 5 月债券托管数据点评 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 摘要：5 月债券总托管规模环比上升 21633 亿元，较 4 月多增 5557 亿 元，主要是受到国债和政金债净融资规模大幅上升的影响，而地方债、 同业存单和信用债的托管增量环比均小幅下降。 ➢ 5 月降准降息后的止盈情绪以及政府债供给压力的抬升是影响机构行为 的重要因素。5 月上旬央行降准降息落地，尽管资金利率中枢也跟随政 策利率回落，但仍然存在一定的波动，而在长短端利差大幅压缩后，非 银机构的止盈情绪升温，叠加中旬中美贸易谈判取得积极进展，使得广 义基金与券商均大幅减持利率债，保险公司也转为减 ...

中金研究 5月经济整体保持平稳增长，但是结构呈现分化态势。虽然关税缓和，但效果尚未完全显现，带动工 业增加值同比增速小幅回落。以旧换新政策叠加6·18促销前移，带动5月社零增长进一步加快。然而 固定资产投资增速回落，尤其是房地产销售数据持续走弱，房地产投资依旧承压。 针对5月经济数 据我们将从宏观及相关行业角度进行详细解读。 宏观 外生因素支撑零售 关税缓和，但效果尚未完全显现，带动工业增加值同比增速小幅回落。 日内瓦会谈后，关税缓和，但 是由于从订单到生产再到出口的过程有一定时滞，效果或仍未完全体现在5月数据中。和前期公布的5月 进出口数据一致，5月工业企业出口交货值同比+0.5%（4月为+0.9%），同比增速有所回落。这也带动 了工业增加值同比增速小幅放缓，5月工业增加值同比+5.8%（4月为+6.1%），其中制造业增加值同比 +6.2%（4月为+6.6%），高技术制造业增加值同比+8.6%（4月为+10.0%），回落幅度多于整体。细分 行业来看，部分受关税影响较大的劳动密集型产品增加值同比增速回落，例如纺织品同比+0.6%（4月 为+2.6%），受房地产影响较大的原材料行业同比增速也多数回落，其中非金属 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since May, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Despite the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, concerns about bank liabilities have increased, and the Sino-US trade agreement has also put some pressure on long-term bonds. However, the central bank's intention to stabilize funds is clear, and the expectation of restarting bond purchases is rising. In June, the interest rate curve is expected to steepen downward [2]. - Although there are still fluctuations in funds after the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates continues. In early June, funds have loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase is conducive to reducing unnecessary market fluctuations and releasing a signal of stabilizing the funds market. The market believes that the 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 also aims to supplement the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. Whether this is the case depends on whether the central bank conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June [2]. - Although DR007 was still above 1.5% last week, the overnight rate has dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The widening spread between the two may be related to the increase in bank lending. The overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. The inflection point of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may have appeared and is expected to continue to decline. - The central bank's disclosure of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in May has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Although the central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, it is difficult to disprove in the short term, and the decline in short - term interest rates may not be over [2][3]. - Recent high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The sales area of new and second - hand houses has declined, and the prices of black commodities remain weak. The export growth rate in May dropped to 4.8%. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will also create space for the long - end. In the short term, the curve may continue the bull - steepening trend. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [3]. Summary by Directory I. The central bank sends a signal to stabilize the market. The overnight rate is expected to remain low, and the inflection point of the CD rate may have appeared - Since March, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates has continued. In early June, funds loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase can reduce unnecessary market fluctuations and release a signal of stabilizing the funds market [7]. - The 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 supplements the medium - term liquidity of banks and is considered beneficial to alleviating the bank's liability pressure. However, considering that 1.2 trillion of outright reverse repurchases will mature in June, whether the central bank has the intention to further supplement liquidity depends on whether it conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June due to weak credit demand and a marginal decline in government bond supply [10]. - In the first week of June, DR007 remained above 1.5%, while the overnight rate dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The central bank seems to pay more attention to controlling the overnight rate, and the overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. With the overnight rate remaining low, the demand for CDs from non - bank institutions has been significantly released, and the CD rate is expected to continue to approach 1.6% [12][15][17]. II. The central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but it is difficult to disprove and still benefits the medium - and short - term bonds - The central bank's disclosure of the "Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal of Central Bank Tools in May 2025" is considered an attempt to increase policy transparency. However, since June 2024, the deviation between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency operations has increased significantly, and the relatively small changes in structural tools in May are difficult to explain this deviation. The relationship between excess reserves and bank lending has also weakened, so the disclosure of monthly information on central bank tools has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation [21][24]. - The disclosure of the scale of outright bond purchases and sales in the open market may not include maturity and roll - over. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Which reason is more likely needs to be observed from whether the relevant accounts continue to decline in May [26][28]. - Although the increase in the net purchase of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years by large - scale banks last week has led to an increase in the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it may also be the banks' own operations. The central bank's bond - buying in June cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but this expectation is difficult to disprove in the short term and is still beneficial to medium - and short - term bonds [30]. III. High - frequency data remains weak, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June - In May, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49% to 49.5%, slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern, which may be boosted by export - rush factors. However, overall, the recovery speed of production activities is still higher than that of demand, and the new export orders and new order indexes are still below the boom - bust line. The situation of enterprises reducing inventory through price cuts has not changed significantly [32]. - Domestic high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The marginal improvement in new - house sales in May was mainly concentrated in first - tier cities, and the data has weakened recently. The second - hand housing market has also cooled down. Indicators such as the apparent demand for rebar and the cement shipping rate are still at low levels in recent years. Although the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has risen significantly since late May, the increase in port container volume is not significant. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will create space for the long - end, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [35][48].

截至2025年6月9日 11:17，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.41%，最新价报111.72元。流动性方面，30 年国债ETF博时盘中换手14.11%，成交10.95亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至6月6日，30年国 债ETF博时近1月日均成交22.00亿元。 浙商证券认为，6月流动性有望维持均衡充裕状态，央行或将在6月或者下半年择机恢复国债买入操作， 降准降息的时间窗口可能在三季度，10年国债核心波动区间或在1.5%-1.8%，收益率曲线平坦预计持续 较长时间。 30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数，上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债 中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映沪 市相应期限国债的整体表现。 以上产品风险等级为： 中低（此为管理人评级，具体销售以各代销机构评级为准） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流入6785.64万元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内，合计"吸 金"7562.05万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30 ...