Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of soda ash futures is driven by supply disruptions, but the long - term pattern of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains unchanged. For operation, pay attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, and avoid blind chasing of highs [3][4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement. Gold shows signs of rising again and low - buying for long positions can be considered. Iron ore may enter a technical short - position trend and short on rebounds is recommended. Glass is expected to be oscillatory and bearish. Eggs present a long - position opportunity due to seasonal supply tightness. Pulp futures show an oscillatory rebound trend [8][13][15][19][22][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - On the afternoon of November 10, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,226 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday reaching 1,230 yuan/ton and the trading volume increasing to over 1.54 million lots [3]. - The core driving force for the rise comes from supply - side disruptions, including production cuts by some enterprises and postponed new capacity commissioning. Low heavy - alkali inventory and the strengthening of glass futures also support the price. However, the long - term situation of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains, and downstream glass demand is still dragged by the real - estate sector [3][4]. - Institutions suggest paying attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, not blindly chasing highs, and short - term long - position opportunities can be grasped near the 1,200 yuan/ton mark [5]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index slowly oscillated upward and closed with a small positive line. Core CPI growth expanded and the price level stabilized and rebounded. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement [8]. Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions can be considered [13]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through an important support level and may enter a technical short - position trend, so short on rebounds is recommended [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies. Technically, it broke through the support level today and is expected to be oscillatory and bearish [19]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will gradually become prominent. Long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the market supply is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is weak, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The pulp futures have shown an oscillatory rebound trend recently [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has also stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term rebound in the cost side has slightly boosted the price trend of propylene. The supply side remains relatively loose due to some plant shutdowns and others ramping up production. The demand side shows that downstream cost pressure has eased, but downstream procurement is cautious. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also limited downside space at the current low price level. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions on propane supply and the start - stop status of PDH plants [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (+49), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 9 yuan/ton (-49), and the North China basis is - 74 yuan/ton (-49) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 220 US dollars/ton (-18), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 136 US dollars/ton (-7) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 396 yuan/ton (+127) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 39% (-1.31%), with a production profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 68% (-4%), with a production profit of - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol capacity utilization is 90% (+2%), with a production profit of 12 yuan/ton (+0); octanol capacity utilization is 92% (-4%), with a production profit of - 199 yuan/ton (-100); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 75% (-8%), with a production profit of 1037 yuan/ton (-125); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 79% (+0%), with a production profit of - 516 yuan/ton (-25); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78% (+0%), with a production profit of - 416 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the dynamics of PDH plants - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy continued to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, leading to increased internal differentiation [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth year-on-year was 5.2% in August, down from 5.7% in July, indicating a slight decline but still at a relatively high level [4][6] - The overall economic trend is expected to maintain a slow and stable trajectory with structural optimization, but demand recovery will take time [2][3] Production Sector - The production growth rate showed a slight decline, primarily due to external demand pressures and some upstream industries experiencing production cuts [4][6] - The production-sales rate decreased from 97.1% to 96.6%, indicating a marginal improvement in domestic consumption capacity [4] - Policy-related industries, such as transportation equipment and non-ferrous metals, showed resilience, while export and consumer-related sectors faced significant pressure [6][7] Service Sector - The service sector's production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year in August, down 0.2 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown [7] - High-value-added industries like information technology and finance showed growth, while leasing and business services faced challenges due to weak corporate expansion intentions [7] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.3% in August, primarily due to seasonal pressures from the influx of recent graduates into the labor market [9] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4% in August, down 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating a need for stronger consumption recovery [12][15] - Dining consumption showed signs of recovery, while retail sales growth for goods slowed down, reflecting a mixed performance across different categories [14][15] - Essential consumption categories faced declines, while some upgraded consumption categories showed resilience, supported by seasonal demand and policy measures [15] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth was 0.5% year-on-year for January to August, with August showing a significant decline of 7.1% compared to July [16][19] - Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all experienced negative growth, necessitating policy support to break the downward cycle [16][20] - The real estate sector continued to face fundamental pressures, with sales area and sales value both declining significantly year-on-year [20]

Price Index Overview - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week of August 11-15 is 95.46 points, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.07 points or 0.07% [1] - The long product price index decreased to 96.95 points, down 0.17 points or 0.18% week-on-week, while the flat product price index increased to 94.23 points, up 0.25 points or 0.26% week-on-week [1] Regional Price Trends - In North China, the steel price index rose to 94.41 points, up 0.29 points or 0.31% week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region saw a slight decline of 0.01 points to 93.63 points, while East China experienced a decrease of 0.13 points to 96.61 points [2] - The Central South region's index decreased by 0.03 points to 97.44 points, whereas Southwest and Northwest regions saw increases of 0.18 points and 0.50 points, respectively [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of the previous month, with the largest drop in galvanized sheets and the smallest in hot-rolled sheets [3] - Specific price changes include: high-line steel at 3460 CNY/ton (down 0.65%), rebar at 3262 CNY/ton (down 0.52%), and cold-rolled sheets at 4029 CNY/ton (down 0.09%) [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in July was 94.41 USD/ton, up 1.53 USD/ton or 1.65% month-on-month [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices increased to 877 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton or 0.58% [4] - Coking coal prices rose to 1364 CNY/ton, up 58 CNY/ton or 4.43%, while coke prices increased to 1427 CNY/ton, up 91 CNY/ton or 6.81% [4] Market Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak, particularly for construction steel, during the off-season [5] - Steel production has slightly decreased, while fuel prices for steelmaking have shown minor increases, providing some support to steel prices [5] - The market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias in the short term [5]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]