1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].

Core Viewpoint - Kweichou Moutai achieved positive growth in Q3 2025 despite a challenging environment characterized by a "ban on alcohol" and weak demand, with revenue reaching CNY 39.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, which was below market expectations of CNY 42.5 billion [1][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of CNY 19.22 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, slightly outpacing revenue growth [4][11]. - Moutai liquor revenue reached CNY 34.9 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, although there was a downward trend compared to the previous two quarters [2][15]. Market Dynamics - The decline in demand was particularly pronounced in the gifting segment, indicating weak business demand from small and medium enterprises, while banquet demand showed a less significant decline [3][15]. - Series liquor revenue fell sharply to CNY 4.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%, attributed to high inventory levels and weak demand [3][17]. Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue decreased by 14.8% to CNY 15.6 billion, with the direct sales channel's share dropping to 40%, reflecting the weak demand at the terminal level [4][20]. - Contract liabilities decreased to CNY 7.8 billion, down 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery from the previous quarter's steep decline [5][22]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross profit margin slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 91.4%, driven by a higher proportion of Moutai liquor sales [4][25]. - The company reduced marketing expenditures, resulting in a sales expense ratio decline of 1 percentage point to 3.1%, while management expenses remained stable [4][25]. Industry Context - The current phase of the industry is characterized by a proactive reduction of inventory, with terminal sales beginning to show improvement, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [6][7]. - The market's expectations regarding Moutai's pricing have stabilized, indicating that short-term price fluctuations may have a muted impact on the company's valuation [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized consumption as a key driver for economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating a shift in policy focus from supply-driven to a balanced supply-demand interaction [3][14]. - Future consumption policies are expected to be more targeted and sustainable, with potential measures including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies for quality upgrades in the food and beverage sector [3][14]. - The report highlights a significant transformation in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, leading to the rise of new retail channels such as instant retail and membership supermarkets, which are reshaping the sales landscape of the food and beverage industry [4][15]. - Companies that can adapt to these new channels and consumer trends are expected to emerge as industry leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Salted Fish and Ganyuan Foods in the new consumption track, and Kweichow Moutai in the cyclical sector [4][15]. Market Performance - Last week, the sub-sectors of the food and beverage industry showed varying performance, with soft drinks up by 2.05%, meat products by 2.03%, and other alcoholic beverages by 1.75%, while beer and yellow wine saw declines of -1.73% and -3.75% respectively [16][20]. - The report also notes the performance of key companies within the alcoholic beverage sector, with *ST Yedao leading with a 9.05% increase, while others like Shanxi Fenjiu and Zhujiang Beer experienced declines [20][24]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,112.25 billion [9]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 21.31, indicating a moderate valuation level [9]. Key Company Tracking - Recent announcements include significant shareholding changes and asset restructuring activities among companies like Huangtai Liquor and Lihai Foods, indicating ongoing strategic adjustments within the industry [31][32]. - Notable performance was reported by Yangyuan Beverage, which achieved a revenue of approximately 1.44 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.88% [34]. Future Events - Upcoming significant events in the industry include various earnings presentations and shareholder meetings for companies such as Water Well and Yili, scheduled for late October and early November [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term oil price is expected to rebound with oscillations, but the upside space remains limited. Supply - side geopolitical risk premiums and OPEC+ production cuts provide support, while long - term supply increases and demand substitution risks exist. Demand - side Asian seasonal restocking is nearing an end, and narrowing refinery profits in Europe and the United States suppress processing volume growth. Although the oil price may briefly break through the previous high under certain circumstances, it lacks continuous upward momentum due to the slowdown in global economic growth and non - OPEC supply elasticity [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 24, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil futures main contract rose by 5.2 yuan/barrel (1.13%) to 464.9 yuan/barrel, continuing the recent upward oscillation trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 61.75 dollars/barrel and 65.26 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread changed from - 0.71 dollars/barrel to 0.01 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened by 0.72 dollars to 3.52 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread narrowed from - 5.8 yuan/barrel to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - In the week of October 21, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions were significantly reduced by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts, a recent low, and diesel net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts, indicating weakening confidence in continuous oil price increases and weakening refined oil demand expectations [3]. (2) Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The pipeline fire in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with September oil exports at a high of 102 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year. Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit due to a drone attack, which may affect refined oil exports but not crude oil production. The US opened Alaska for drilling, and India's Reliance Industries increased crude oil purchases, suggesting potential non - OPEC supply increases [4]. - Demand side: India's October services PMI preliminary value of 60.7 supported Asian crude oil import demand. However, the expected reduction in China's refined oil retail price limit may suppress refinery restocking willingness. Indonesia's plan to implement the E10 gasoline policy in 2027 may suppress traditional gasoline demand in the long term. The reduction of US diesel speculative long positions reflected weakening industrial demand expectations, and there was no significant rebound signal in EIA apparent demand [4]. - Inventory side: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, indicating limited delivery storage capacity pressure. US Cushing inventory decreased recently, but EIA commercial crude oil inventory was still at a seasonal high, and the overall OECD inventory level suppressed the upward movement of oil prices [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring (1) Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 464.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.13% from the previous day. WTI was 61.44 dollars/barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent was 64.92 dollars/barrel, down 0.52% [7]. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices showed an upward trend, with the Brent spot price rising by 1.61%, the Oman spot price rising by 1.37%, etc. [7]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 149.30% to 0.35 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 36.79% to 3.83 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.85% to 3.48 dollars/barrel [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index increased by 0.01%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.79%, the DAX index increased by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.23%, Cushing inventory decreased by 3.50%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.20%. The US refinery weekly开工 rate increased by 3.38%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 3.97% [7]. (2) Fuel Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,814 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from the previous day, the LU was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, and NYMEX fuel oil was 239.7 cents/gallon, up 0.57% [8]. - Spot prices: Some fuel oil spot prices increased, such as the high - sulfur 180 in Singapore rising by 2.28%, and the Russian M100 to - shore price rising by 4.75% [8]. - Paper - cargo prices: The high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) increased by 2.51% [8]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not provided, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.03% [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation (1) Supply - On October 26, the fire in an oil pipeline in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with the current daily output remaining at 400,000 barrels. Iraq's September total oil exports were 102.15 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year [9][10]. - On October 24, Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit after a drone attack. India's Reliance Industries bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East and the US. Italy's Eni Group raised its 2025 oil and gas production guidance, expecting an output of 171 - 172 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 and about 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter. The US announced the opening of the Alaska coastal plain for oil drilling [10]. (2) Demand - Indonesia plans to implement a policy in 2027 to make the bio - ethanol content in gasoline reach 10% [11]. (3) Inventory - On October 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,960 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons [12]. (4) Market Information - As of the week of October 21, diesel speculative net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts to 45,766 contracts, and Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts [13]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, shadow fleets, and oil terminals. China's refined oil retail price limit is likely to be reduced on October 27 [13]. - India's October services PMI preliminary value was 60.7 [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [14][16][18]

第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 黑色金属周报-钢材 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（-）；上海热卷3290元， （+20）。 五大品种钢材整体产量增8.37万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降1.27吨，社库降26.14吨。表观 需892.73万吨，环比增17.32万吨。截至10月24日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金含税成本 3143元，点对点利润27元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润47元左右。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本 在3294元左右，谷电成本在3151.5左右，华东螺纹平电利润-174元左右，谷电利润-31元。 废钢端，截止10月23日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比持平。数据显示，89家独立电弧炉 企业产能利用率33.2%，环比下降1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51.4万吨，环比下降0.94万吨； 其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.9万吨/天，环比下降0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand picked up, and the cost support rose. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed different trends [6]. - **Cost**: The production in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 was at a loss of 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the spot price in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons. The main port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Expected Trend**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The planned output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The output of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in production and inventory. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently at a loss, while the production of components is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 24, the N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Expected Trend**: The supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference of some contracts increased. The inventory and production showed different trends in different regions [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference, inventory, and production of related products also showed different trends [17]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - base difference and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production, and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts [20][25][29][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trend, price - base difference trend, and inventory trend are presented through charts [22][23]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, consumption, import, and export of industrial silicon in different periods [39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, consumption, import, and export of polysilicon in different periods [68]. 3.6 Downstream Product Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented through charts [45][47][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy are presented through charts [55][58][59]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry are presented through charts [71][74][77]

Report Title - The report is titled "PP Weekly Report 20251026: Rebound Window" [2][7] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The contract is pp2601. PP is in the capacity release period, with new installations being put into operation successively and high existing production loads, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it falls short of expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. Under the situation of oversupply, the price center of polypropylene may continue to move downward [6]. - This week, the price of PP has rebounded. On one hand, the previous decline was significant and the trend was smooth. On the other hand, the previous negative factors have eased. The Sino - US trade conflict has eased, and pessimistic sentiment has subsided. In addition, crude oil prices rebounded significantly this week, increasing cost support and driving up chemical products. The Fourth Plenary Session also had a certain emotional guidance. There were limited changes in its own fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products decreased, with some shipping pressure, and the basis strengthened slightly. The basis in East China strengthened by 10 to around - 90 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around - 130 yuan/ton, and strengthened by 20 to around - 80 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis of plastic performed stronger than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional Spread**: The spreads between North China - East China and South China - East China both strengthened [31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The spread between injection molding and drawing decreased further, while the spread between low - melt copolymer and drawing strengthened [32]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PP futures decreased slightly to around - 50. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread declined. Overall, PP has greater supply pressure (high load + new production), while L has more maintenance and the demand for film has started, and the recovery of PP demand is relatively slow, so the L - PP spread is gradually repairing upwards. At the same time, the cost side of PP (PG, MA) is also under pressure, further strengthening the spread [58]. 2. Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: - Oil - based production maintained a relatively good profit level in recent years. Although the price of Brent crude oil dropped to around $80/barrel this week due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and the resurgence of trade war risks, the oil - based production profit remained stable [64]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of propane in North Asia is expected to be marginally relaxed in Q4, and the PDH - made PP profit improved quarter - on - quarter [64]. - The price of动力煤 continued to rise, but the CTO profit remained high. The price of methanol in the production area was firm under tight supply - demand conditions, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: - In 2024, China's PP production capacity was 44.01 million tons. In early 2025, China's PP production capacity was expected to increase by 2.655 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 1.28%. As of September 2025, the new domestic PP production capacity totaled 4.155 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11% [92][94][95]. - This week, the PP production was 801,000 tons (- 23,400 tons), and the operating rate was 75.94% (- 2.28%). The supply loss of PP was 246,600 tons, including 182,800 tons of maintenance loss and 63,700 tons of production reduction loss. There were more temporary maintenance plans for production enterprises this week, and the subsequent planned maintenance is also relatively high, and the enterprise's operating enthusiasm is not high, so the maintenance volume may remain at a high level [10]. 3. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. Asian prices continued to be weak. The CFR Far East supply was in excess with weak demand, and prices in Southeast Asia were generally falling due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - priced domestic supplies. The supply - demand situation in South Asia was also poor. The spread between CFR China and the outer market rebounded [127][128]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and the counter - offer price is low. The export quotation center of production enterprises has shifted downward, and enterprises are making low - price concessions for transactions. On the import side, although China's price is at a relatively low level globally, the weak external demand has led to a decrease in the ability to accept goods, and more goods are flowing to China [145]. 4. Downstream Profit and Operation - **Downstream Operation**: After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.83%, a decrease of 0.09% quarter - on - quarter. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, with an increase in the use of fertilizer bags in agriculture and the recovery of construction infrastructure driving the demand for woven bags. The operating rate of BOPP increased by 0.48%, while that of CPP decreased by 0.32%. The operating rate of PP pipes decreased by 0.33%, and the operating rate of injection molding increased by 0.13%. In the traditional peak season, demand still has room to rise, but overall performance is relatively weak and difficult to absorb the high supply [148]. 5. Inventory - Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 6.787 million tons, with the inventory of two major oil companies increasing by 196,000 tons, coal - chemical industry inventory decreasing by 141,000 tons, PBI inventory decreasing by 85,000 tons, and local refinery inventory increasing by 3,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed of upstream production enterprises was slow, so the production enterprise inventory only decreased slightly this week [212]. - Trader inventory decreased by 225,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. As downstream demand gradually returned to normal, domestic trader inventory decreased, and the allocation of external resources to the domestic market increased [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With cost support and peak - season restocking, PTA inventory reduction continues. It is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation at a low valuation. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is weakening, and the rebound momentum is limited. Attention should be paid to crude oil dynamics [6]. - MEG: The cost side of ethylene glycol performs well. With some device maintenance and blocked arrival of imported goods, it is expected to continue the short - term rebound trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Market Trend**: Due to the US increasing sanctions on Russia, the ongoing stalemate in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, combined with the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil rebounded from a low level. For PX, with cost support, many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, and terminal restocking enthusiasm increased, leading to a recovery in the absolute price of PX. As of October 24, the closing price of Asian PX was $815/ton CFR China, up $32/ton from October 17 [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The 1 million - ton device of Urumqi Petrochemical continued maintenance and was planned to restart around October 29; two 1.4 - million - ton devices of Fushun Dahua continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PX was 86.33%, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week [19]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 24, the PX - naphtha price difference was $233.9/ton, a decrease of $12.3/ton from October 17. Although many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, the cost side was significantly driven up by crude oil, resulting in a narrow decline in the PX - naphtha price difference [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: In the first half of the week, affected by the weakening of oil prices, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was low, and the pessimistic sentiment in the industrial chain spread. The spot price of PTA continued to weaken. In the middle of the week, as oil prices rebounded from a low level, the overall sentiment in the commodity market improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries in the traditional peak season increased. The spot price rebounded from a low level. As of October 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA reached 75.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%. Although the load of Yisheng Ningbo's device decreased, due to the load increase of Yisheng New Materials last week, the increase was more than the decrease, and the overall domestic production this period increased. In October, Ineos and Hengli both had maintenance plans, and the restart times of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan were not yet determined. The monthly production of PTA may increase significantly. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more - than - expected production cuts in existing devices [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The terminal performance was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries was hindered, and the spot price trend was sluggish. However, the raw material supply was tight, and the price trend was strong. This week, the PTA processing fee continued to decline. Next week, there is an expectation of a rebound in the PTA spot price, but the maintenance devices have restart plans, and the polyester end changes little. The inventory reduction amplitude in the balance sheet narrows, and the PTA processing fee may be slightly repaired [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, there was insufficient PTA device maintenance, and the maintenance devices restarted one after another. With little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be in a loose balance [32]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: At the beginning of the week, the market continued to worry about the supply - demand pattern. In the middle of the week, affected by factors such as the continuous rise of crude oil, the reduction in supply, and the decrease in imported goods, the price of ethylene glycol rose from a low level. As of October 24, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang reached 4,183 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market remained stable at 4,280 yuan/ton [37]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 68.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In October, due to cautious import expectations, the inventory accumulation amplitude at ports was limited, but the domestic production increase expectation was obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of unexpected device changes [38]. - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 127,000 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to October 16 [42][44]. - **Profit**: With the stable operation of newly invested domestic devices, the overall supply continued to increase. The terminal orders were mediocre, and the downstream polyester demand was lackluster. The trend of weakening supply - demand could not be reversed. The raw material prices fluctuated, and the sample profits of each ethylene glycol production process showed both increases and decreases. As of October 24, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $95.04/ton, up $13.85/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 610.44 yuan/ton, down 140.24 yuan/ton from last week [46]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. Some domestic polyester devices were shut down for maintenance during the week. Next week, the previously shut - down and maintained devices have no clear restart expectations, and the commissioning of new devices is postponed. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will decline slightly next week [51]. - **Capacity Utilization of Each Product**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.04%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 85.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%; among them, the average capacity utilization rate of conventional staple fiber was 88.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The Fujian Shanli plant shut down during the period. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [57]. - **Inventory**: Downstream industries carried out centralized restocking during the week, the overall sales of polyester increased, and the finished product inventory of factories decreased [58]. - **Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost increased, and polyester filament manufacturers sold products at discounted prices. The cash flow of most varieties was compressed [63]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 15.68 days, an increase of 0.88 days compared to last week. As the weather gets colder, the demand for domestic autumn and winter fabrics is good, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is relieved. However, the market lacks confidence in future orders, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis. It is expected that the operating rate will still face downward pressure in the future [64]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International crude oil rebounded from a low level, and the absolute price of PX recovered [68]. - **Supply**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA increased slightly, and the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate decreased [68]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased [68]. - **Inventory**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the near - term supply remains tight, while the long - term supply - demand inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China decreased [68].