Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

| 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4800 | 4273 | 6592 | 499.4 | | | 涨跌 | 6796 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 2.7 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2 | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.76% | 0.54% | | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 160 | 126 | -21 | 110 | 6.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -18 | 6 | 32 | -0.6 | | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | | 金/吨 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，高盛表示，如果欧佩克+周日决定增产，预计市场不会有太大反应，因为市场的普 遍预期已经转向这一结果。高盛预计8月产量上调是最后一次，因为非欧佩克国家页岩油的大量流入影 响了供需平衡，但风险倾向于8月后欧佩克+配额的进一步增加。 高盛：周日欧佩克+增产不会对市场产生重大影响 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all rated as "oscillating"; soda ash is rated as "oscillating weakly" [8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16] 2. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the black market weakened. Affected by the news of coal mine restart, coking coal and coke had large declines in the late trading. The overall demand for five major steel products is in a weakening trend in the off - season, and the market is cautious, with the market resuming an oscillating trend. Geopolitical conflicts have less impact, and the trading focus has shifted to the domestic market. Although the blast furnace charge has rebounded from the oversold situation, the demand and inventory of steel are under pressure, so the upward space is limited [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while steel mills' hot metal daily output slightly increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profitability and maintenance plans [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Some coal mines in Shanxi have restarted, but the overall coking coal output is still declining. Coke production has dropped from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coking enterprises' production. Coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and there is still pressure on coal mines to reduce inventory. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3.3 Alloys - For silicon manganese, the lack of arrivals from Gabon in early July supports prices. Although there is an expectation of increased production, factories and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost inversion, so the short - term market is expected to oscillate. For silicon iron, although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is also expected to oscillate [3]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the energy cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, cold - repair, and demand sustainability. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. With the resumption of maintenance, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [3][13][15]. 3.6 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products both weakened month - on - month, and the overall inventory increased. However, the inventory of rebar decreased. Driven by a weak fundamental situation and short - term weakening of macro - sentiment, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Shipping and arrivals both decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8][9]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The arrival volume has decreased, and the total daily consumption has also declined. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.6.4 Coke - The market is stable, but the coking enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is expected to weaken. The upward space for coke prices is limited, and there is a downward pressure in the medium term [10][11]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - The supply disturbance is difficult to sustain, and there is an expectation of increased production. The downstream demand is declining in the off - season, and the coal mine inventory reduction pressure remains. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase, and the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [3][12]. 3.6.6 Silicon Manganese - There is an expectation of increased production, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. But due to cost inversion, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][15]. 3.6.7 Silicon Iron - Although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel tenders and production [3][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows positive signs with the easing expectation of global tariff frictions and the decline of the US dollar index, but some commodities face fundamental pressures and potential risks [2]. - Most commodities are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand patterns of some commodities will gradually become more relaxed [2][7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity and a slight decrease in the aluminum product start - up rate. Although the macro - environment is favorable, the fundamentals face the dual pressures of weakening demand and weakening cost support, so it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina factory's production is stable, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production. With the weak operation of the US dollar index and the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the alumina futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the price rebounded. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand has some uncertainties. After the futures price rebounds, the rebound amplitude may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The domestic supply elasticity is greater than the demand elasticity. The production is expected to reach a new high in June, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices above 65,000 yuan [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is affected by the cost - end and the production situation. The short - term capital attention is high, and it is recommended to wait and see if there are anti - involution actions in the industry [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a narrowing futures premium and high valuation. It is expected that the steel futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. The futures are slightly at a premium to the spot. It is expected that the coking coal futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic soybean arrivals will be large later, and the unilateral trend follows the international cost end. It is necessary to focus on the USDA report [4][5]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand this year has tightened marginally. The spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **White Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly later, and it is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock the futures price for sugar users [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton export sales have decreased, and the domestic downstream start - up rate has declined. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound strategy [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand for exports has increased. The short - term supply - demand is increasing, and it is in a relatively balanced state. It is recommended to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is affected by low prices. The cost provides support, and the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The short - term pig price is expected to be strong, and the medium - term supply will continue to increase, and the price center will gradually move down. It is recommended to pay attention to the enterprise's slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [6]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing varieties' opening prices will affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is improving marginally. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals change little. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the social inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to sell call options above 4,950 yuan [7]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply of PX and PTA is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short the processing margin at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing steadily, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short lightly above 14,000 yuan, and hold positive arbitrage positions in RU - NR [8]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak. The supply will increase in July, and the inventory is difficult to digest. It is recommended to short at high prices for hedging [8]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term market will oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: The supply is at a high level and has room for further increase. The inventory is at a low level. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The short - term demand support is strong, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply inventory is accumulating slightly in the short - term, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the export demand. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Ethylene Benzene (EB)**: The short - term pure benzene and styrene inventories are accumulating slightly. The demand is affected by the profit situation and export prospects. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has some problems. It is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [9][10].