Core Viewpoint - Tianjian Technology (002977.SZ) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 5.96 million yuan and 11.82 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 11.17 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 153.30% to 205.81% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of between 6.14 million yuan and 12.18 million yuan, down by 155.13% to 209.44% year-on-year [2]. - Basic earnings per share are anticipated to be a loss of between 0.0496 yuan and 0.0984 yuan, compared to a profit of 0.0930 yuan per share in the previous year [2]. Operational Challenges - The expected loss is primarily due to longer customer payment processes, leading to extended aging of accounts receivable, which resulted in the company making provisions for credit impairment losses based on accounting policies [2]. - The company's order fulfillment has been affected by related procurement plans, causing delays in project deliveries and resulting in lower-than-expected revenue recognition [2].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月挖掘机会在"小众" 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 信用债市场周观察 | | --- | | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 信用债周观点：7 月挖掘机会隐藏在小众的品种、小众的期限、小众的主体当中。 回顾 6 月信用债行情，短端下沉依然是稳定的策略，高等级难有超额但低等级被持 续挖掘，保持中等久期还可获得可观资本利得。目前低等级 1Y 已经逼近乃至刷新近 一年低点，但 5Y 相比于去年 7~8 月还有 10bp 左右空间。7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first half of 2025 experienced high activity with a shift from a bull market to a high-volatility phase, driven by the issuance of credit bonds and interest rate bonds, which supported the real economy [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Expansion - The bond primary market continued to expand in the first half of 2025, with credit and interest rate bonds driving issuance, contributing to market stability and financing for key sectors [3]. - The number of credit bonds issued reached 11,077 with a total issuance scale of 10.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.75% and 4.39% respectively [3]. - Special bonds and technology innovation bonds (科创债) saw rapid development, with local governments increasing support for technology enterprises, facilitating direct financing for high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment - The issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan, a growth of about 44.7% compared to the same period in 2024, playing a crucial role in driving effective investment [4]. - Special bonds were directed towards municipal infrastructure, green transformation, public services, and high-end manufacturing, significantly supporting ongoing and new projects [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Trends - The bond market transitioned to a high-volatility phase due to multiple factors, including monetary policy shifts and external disturbances, marking the end of a prolonged bull market [5][6]. - From March 17, 2025, the bond market experienced a notable shift, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from approximately 1.6% to 1.9%, before declining to 1.64% by July 4, 2025 [6][7]. - The market sentiment improved as liquidity remained balanced and monetary easing policies were implemented, leading to a recovery in bond prices [5][6]. Group 4: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the second half of 2025, with the third quarter seen as a favorable window for bond allocation, while the fourth quarter may experience increased volatility due to supply pressures [8][9]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a "duration + wave" strategy, focusing on segmented market opportunities, and recommend a "barbell" approach for interest rate bonds [9].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 房地产基本面展望下的大类资产配置变化 ——房地产行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 总量研究/房地产 标的层面，房地产板块关注【招商蛇口】【华润置地】【保利发展】【中国 海外发展】【滨江集团】【绿城中国】【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等，物业 关注【华润万象生活】【保利物业】【绿城服务】【招商积余】等，交易关 注【贝壳】等，另关注产业链及生态链。 q 风险提示：贷款利率下降不及预期，新模式相关政策落地情况与市场预期有 偏差，挂牌量下降进度不及预期，新房去化周期下降不及预期，房地产行业变 化向上下游传导不及预期等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 256 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2712.5 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2565.9 | 3.1 | 行业指数 1、《供求关系发生重大变化，"去库 存"政策或构筑局部"信用底"—— 房地产行业 2024 年中期投资策略》 2024-06-27 2、《行业均衡与主体平衡——房地产 行业 2024 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuous evolution of fixed income investment frameworks, highlighting the career development of Chen Yunhui, a seasoned fund manager at GF Fund [1][2] - Chen Yunhui has built a comprehensive credit bond investment system over her ten-year career, focusing on both top-down and bottom-up approaches to enhance her investment strategies [4][5] - The current macroeconomic environment presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating a more strategic approach to asset allocation and investment in credit bonds [5] Group 2 - Chen Yunhui's career began in 2011 at Huatai Securities, where she transitioned from equity research to fixed income investment, developing a keen ability to manage positions actively [2][3] - Her experience across different financial sectors, including securities asset management and bank wealth management, has equipped her with a multifaceted skill set in risk control and investment management [2][3] - The investment strategies employed by Chen Yunhui focus on balancing risk and return, particularly in a low-return, low-risk environment, by emphasizing the importance of left-side positioning and dynamic position management [5]

核 心 观 点 5月下旬，美国、中国香港相继通过稳定币监管法案，成为市场新焦点。在过去一年中，前五大稳定币市值增长约45%。在高速增长下，稳定币将对汇率产生 怎样的影响？ 稳定币如何传导至汇率？ 稳定币是通过锚定资产实现币值相对稳定的加密货币， 主要包括链下资产支持型、链上资产支持型和算法型，以美元稳定币USDT和 USDC为主。 发行机制方面， USDT通过客户存入美元后，按固定比例向客户发行等值稳定币，且将美元资金投资于高流动性资产以保证刚性兑付。 供需方面， 美元稳定币降低交易成本，提升美元需求，支撑美元指数；对弱势货币国家则可能导致本币贬值和资本外流。 风险方面， 稳定币交易快速增长带来监管难度、流 动性和市场风险，后二者叠加可能触发流动性紧缩，促使央行干预。 市场集中度方面， 2024年USDT和USDC总量占总交易量和总供应量的绝对多数，市场高度集 中。同时， 交易规模持续快速增长， 2024年增速超50%，2025年前6个月累计增速继续上行。 稳定币能救美元么 ？ 对于本币而言，稳定币是一针"强心剂"。 稳定币的结算成本更低，根据coinbase研究，目前全球范围内汇款200美元的平均成本仍为汇 ...

周度报告-黄金 | 多空因素交织，黄金走势震荡 | | --- | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 7 月 6 日 [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金涨 1.9%至 3337 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.34%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率升至 2%，美元指数跌 0.23%至 97.2，标普 500 指数涨 1.72%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价有所反弹，市场交易重心再度转向美国对等关税，随着 90 天暂缓期逐渐到期，美国与越南达成协议，将对越南进口商品加 征 20%、转口商品加征 40%关税，欧盟和日本尚未达成协议，特 朗普政府表示将于 7 月 7 日对 12 个国家发关税信函。后续美国至 少会对贸易伙伴加征 10%及以上的关税，提振了黄金的避险属性， 但目前关税的烈度和不确定性不如 4 月份是高，因而黄金的涨幅 也相对有限。而美国经济数据表现尚可，也没有给黄金带来增量 利多，6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人，4 月和 5 月数据小幅上修， 近三个月平均增速 15 万人，而失业率下降至 4.1%低位，新增就 业主 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 07 月 06 日 金价震荡回升，基本金属需求逐步 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 进入淡季 看好 —— 金属&新材料行业周报20250630-20250704 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.40%，深证成指上涨 1.25%，沪深 300 上涨 1.54%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 1.03%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.51 个百分点。2）分子板块看， 环比上周，贵金属上涨 0.96%，铝上涨 1.10%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum aims to establish a high-end dialogue platform in the credit field with international influence, promoting an open, inclusive, and innovative credit ecosystem to support the high-quality development of the digital economy in Beijing [2][4]. Group 1: Forum Objectives and Themes - The forum focuses on the integration of credit and digital economy, emphasizing the importance of social credit as a foundational element for high-quality digital economic development [4][6]. - It aims to enhance the application of credit information and improve service efficiency through innovative technologies in response to new scenarios and demands in the digital economy [4][6]. Group 2: Achievements and Future Directions - Beijing has made significant progress in building its social credit system, improving infrastructure, and enhancing the digitalization of credit services, which has positively impacted social governance and economic development [6]. - Future efforts will focus on leveraging new opportunities from the digital economy, activating credit data elements, and fostering a good ecosystem for credit services to support high-quality economic and social development [6]. Group 3: Expert Discussions and Innovations - Experts discussed various themes such as "Credit + Digital Economy," "Credit + AI," and "Credit Standardization + Digital Economy," sharing insights on the development of personal credit in China and the impact of AI on credit rating transformations [7]. - The forum provided a platform for dialogue on the paths and methods for credit to empower new productive forces and the challenges posed by the digital economy to the credit service industry [7]. Group 4: Announcements and Publications - The forum announced the launch of the "Zhongguancun Sci-Tech Financial Service Center E-Platform," aimed at upgrading Beijing's technology financial services [9]. - The Beijing Credit Association released the "Blue Book on the Development of Beijing's Credit Service Industry (2025)," detailing the current state of the industry [9].

一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合收益悉数回升，且信用仓位涨幅不小。利率风格组合中，产业超长型、二级超长型策略组合读数靠前， 均在 0.15%附近；信用风格组合中，产业超长型、二级超长型策略组合收益位居前列，读数分别达到 0.41%、0.41%。 分重仓券种看，二级资本债重仓策略显著修复，二级债子弹型、产业超长型策略收益趋近于近三个月最高。信用风格 存单重仓组合周度收益均值上涨至 0.14%，环比升高 9.3bp，本周进攻属性不及长久期资产；城投重仓组合的周度收 益平均上行至 0.23%，较上周涨幅超过 20bp，子弹型、久期策略单周收益在 0.25%以上，优于哑铃型策略；二级资 本债重仓组合收益均值则回升 28bp 至 0.27%附近，其中，久期及混合哑铃型策略修复力度较大；超长债重仓策略平 均收益出现 38bp 左右的大幅回升，二季度产业、二级超长型策略累计收益不及城投超长型，而本周收益几乎位于近 三个月最高点。 收益来源方面，各类策略组合票息收益略有回升，波动再度回落。主要策略中，各类组合票息多数升高，城投短端下 沉、二级债下沉策略票息环比涨幅均在 0.04bp 左右，除重仓超长债的策略外，其余组合年化 ...