6月21日，汇正财经2025年中策略会在上海圆满落幕，本次策略会以"智启创新，投领未来"为核心主题，聚焦半导体、人形机器人、新消费等细分场景， 汇聚了一众经济学家、产业专家及投资界领军人物，共同探讨全球宏观经济趋势、科技创新驱动下的产业变革及资本市场投资机遇。活动通过线上线下同 步直播，吸引了超36.5万人次观看，在当前经济发展的重要窗口期，为投资者锚定全景式的投资策略。 汇正财经联席所长虞瑞捷在开场致辞中强调，中国经济有强大的韧劲，民众有巨大的信心，值此重要节点上，我们要更有勇立潮头的勇气，汇正财经将以 专业研究视角携手广大投资者共同进退。 著名经济学家洪灏：2025年中期宏观经济与展望 洪灏表示，中国的A股市场在全球贸易战及美股市场历史性下跌中保持了坚挺态势，同时内地的投资者对港股的配置需求不断提升，全球经济市场进入了 模式的转换，中国市场等新兴市场将明显受益于市场轮动，资金将释放更多的可能性，尤其是港股市场可能会引来再创新高的表现。 从去年的政府工作报告重点提到了大力提升消费，提高投资效益，全面扩大内需，今年来政策更是把扩大内需放到了首位。超长期特别国债、国补、消费 券等政策真金白银的在刺激消费，使得上 ...

在精准帮扶企业方面，《方案》提出以外贸企业为重点，深入了解各行业企业生产经营情况，统筹政 策、资源、资金帮助企业消化库存、开拓市场、降低成本，着力解决企业实际困难。 广州实施"久摇不中"申请人直接领取号牌政策，更大力度放宽购车限制性措施、增加购车指标；深圳市 优化小汽车常规增量指标摇号规则，加强"久摇不中"人群购车需求保障。 扩大科研助理和见习岗位规模，2025年提供不少于1万个科研助理岗位。 加快广州、深圳市内免税店建设，力争在2025年第三季度内开业。 6月24日，《广东省促进经济持续向好服务做强国内大循环工作方案》（以下简称"《方案》"）公布， 提出七项重点任务及多项细化部署，统筹实施扩大内需战略和深化供给侧结构性改革，着力稳就业、稳 企业、稳市场、稳预期，促进经济持续向好，有力服务做强国内大循环。 多项措施帮助企业对接国外市场 出台措施促进经济持续向好 有力服务做强国内大循环 《方案》提出，筹划以市场化办展模式举办内贸版"广交会"；支持电商企业设立出口转内销专区；支持 办好第二十届中国国际中小企业博览会等重大活动。 推动散裂中子源一期等向企业开放共享 从具体措施来看，《方案》提出筹划以市场化办展模式举 ...

金融期货和期权 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.25） 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有卖出 MO2507-P-5800 虚值看跌期权、IM2507 多单 核心逻辑： 1.海外地缘政治紧张局势现转机，伊以双方释放停战信号，风险情绪回升，明 显提振 A 股市场，后续关注两国局势进展。 2.国内方面，基本面回归偏弱现实，政策提振内需预期有望兑现。央行等六部 门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持政策提前落地，进 一步提振权益市场。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡稍弱，不建议追空 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 交易盘多单减仓，配置盘多单持有 核心逻辑： 1.海外地缘政治紧张局势现转机，伊以双方释放停战信号，风险情绪回升，施 压避险资产。 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 策略早餐 2.资金方面，央行加大净投放力度呵护市场，存款类机构隔夜利率依然稳定在 1.37%附近，7 天期因跨月明显上行 16BP。中长期资金持稳，国股行 1 年期同业存 单成交在 1.64%附近，略有上行。央行公告将 ...

Group 1 - The recent tensions in the Middle East have led to a temporary impact on A-share market sentiment, but the market has rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in nearly a month [1] - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend as it approaches the policy window period at the end of June, with potential for new policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [1] - Popular sectors such as banking and innovative pharmaceuticals may experience short-term fluctuations due to accumulated gains, while TMT and technology growth sectors are anticipated to see a rebound after sufficient adjustments [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests a theme-driven market with high-low sector rotation, as popular sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and banking have shown signs of correction, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are beginning to rebound [2] - Key focus areas for 2025 include expanding domestic demand and consumption, with expectations for policies to support sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend towards domestic production of robotics is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and functional robots [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to see continued domestic growth, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to experience a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already visible in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] - The AI sector is poised for new catalysts, with significant updates expected from companies like MiniMax, indicating a resurgence in AI-related investments [2] Group 3 - The A-share market has ended a month-long period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high, supported by a broad-based rally among individual stocks [3] - The market saw a significant increase in the number of rising stocks, with over 4,700 stocks gaining, while only a few sectors like oil and coal experienced declines due to falling international oil prices [3] - Leading sectors included electric power equipment, non-bank financials, retail, automotive, and machinery [3]

《意见》提出支持增强消费能力，培育消费需求。夯实宏观经济基础，稳定消费预期，加大实体经济支 持力度，强化金融与财政、产业等政策协同联动，实施好货币政策和财政政策，健全资本市场功能，推 动中长期资金入市。同时，支持居民就业增收，强化民营和小微企业、个体工商户等经营主体金融服 务，创新金融产品，规范投资理财业务，提高居民财产性收入。此外，鼓励金融机构研发个人养老金专 属产品，加快推进商业保险年金产品创新，提升消费意愿。 在支持消费产业链上优质企业融资方面，《意见》明确发挥信贷支持主渠道作用，鼓励金融机构创新优 化信贷产品，加大对消费行业经营主体首贷、续贷、信用贷、中长期贷款支持力度。设立服务消费与养 老再贷款，额度5000亿元，对符合条件的金融机构发放的服务消费重点领域贷款，可按贷款本金的 100%申请再贷款。加大债券市场融资支持力度，支持文化、旅游、教育等服务消费领域企业及科创企 业发行债券。积极发展股权融资，支持消费产业链上优质企业通过发行上市、"新三板"挂牌等方式融 资，引导社会资本加大投资，发挥私募股权投资基金和创业投资基金作用。 《意见》提出加大消费重点领域金融支持。推动扩大商品消费，鼓励金融机构做好消 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, and the CSI 300 up by 1.20%. The tech-focused STAR 50 and ChiNext Index rose by 2.30% and 1.79% respectively. The total trading volume reached approximately 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hong Kong market also saw notable gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.0% and 2.1% respectively [1] Catalysts for Market Surge - The market rally was driven by several favorable factors, including the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, which alleviated concerns over oil supply shortages and inflation. This led to a drop in oil prices by over 10% from their recent highs [2] - The Chinese government's announcement of a grand military parade for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War boosted investor confidence, showcasing advancements in military technology [2] - Various sectors, particularly technology and finance, saw a resurgence as previous geopolitical tensions subsided, with companies like Tesla launching autonomous taxi services and advancements in solid-state battery production [2] Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Improved risk appetite in the A-share market is noted, with optimism stemming from breakthroughs in AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have positively influenced both domestic and foreign investor perceptions [3] - The ongoing decline of the US dollar is expected to benefit Chinese assets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks likely to gain from increased liquidity [3] - Despite the positive outlook, uncertainties remain regarding tariff negotiations and signs of weakening in some economic indicators, which could impact future market performance [3] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on stable dividend-paying assets in a low-interest-rate environment, particularly in sectors that benefit from increased liquidity [3] - Attention should also be directed towards technology sectors and domestic demand-driven industries that are likely to experience significant policy and industry catalysts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption growth, aiming to build a multi-level financial service system to stimulate high-quality consumption and unleash consumer potential [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines emphasize the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for domestic demand and economic stability, aligning with the central government's focus on expanding domestic demand [1][2]. - The document outlines 19 key measures across six areas, including enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply, and tapping into consumer potential [1][2]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Consumption - The guidelines identify key areas for financial support, including goods consumption, service consumption, and new types of consumption, consistent with previous action plans [2][3]. - Goods consumption is currently robust, with durable goods spending reaching levels comparable to the U.S., while service consumption remains underdeveloped, accounting for only 18% of GDP compared to over 40% in developed countries [2][3]. Group 3: Service Consumption Development - Increased financing support will be directed towards sectors such as wholesale and retail, catering, and elder care to unlock basic service consumption potential [3]. - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans, encouraging financial institutions to enhance support for sectors like hospitality, entertainment, and education [3][4]. Group 4: New Consumption Models - The guidelines promote financial support for digital, green, and health-related consumption, encouraging innovation in financial products tailored to new consumption trends [3][4]. - Financial institutions are urged to collaborate with merchants to develop suitable financial products and services that cater to the characteristics of new consumption [3][4]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - The evolving market environment presents structural opportunities for consumer finance, with potential market expansion and optimization of market dynamics [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to adapt to market changes and leverage their strengths to pursue differentiated development strategies [4].

每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 贾运可 6月24日，人民银行披露，近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总 局、中国证监会等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意 见》），从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供给效 能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。其中，设立服务消费与养老再贷款， 额度5000亿元，尤其引人关注。 业内资深人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，提振消费是扩内需、稳增长的关键。《意见》明确了金 融支持消费的重点领域，即商品消费、服务消费和新型消费，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用 提供了有力金融支撑。 明确三个重点支持领域 业内资深人士告诉记者，中央经济工作会议将大力提振消费列为今年重点工作任务之首。当前，外 部环境剧烈变化，高度不确定性持续压制全球需求，外需对经济增长的支撑作用趋弱，我国经济正在加 速向以内需为主导的增长模式转型，消费已成为构建新发展格局的重要引擎，对拉动国民经济增长具有 重大作用。《意见》的出台，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用提供了有力金融支撑。 《意见》明确了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" was released to enhance financial services in the consumer sector, proposing 19 key measures across six areas to stimulate high-quality consumption and meet diverse financing needs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The Opinions emphasize support for key areas of consumption, including goods, services, and new types of consumption, to activate market potential and stabilize economic growth [2][3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate and optimize consumer credit products to meet differentiated and personalized consumer needs, particularly in the context of trade and domestic sales [2][3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Development - Increased financing support is proposed for sectors such as wholesale and retail, catering, and elder care, aiming to tap into the potential of basic service consumption [3]. - A dedicated 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund was established to enhance financial supply in sectors like accommodation, education, and tourism [3]. Group 3: New Consumption Cultivation - The Opinions call for exploring effective financial channels for supporting digital, green, and health consumption, emphasizing financial innovation tailored to new consumption characteristics [3][4]. - The focus is on developing financial products and services that align with the trends of new consumption, driven by rising disposable income and changing consumer preferences [2][3]. Group 4: Enhancing Financial Services - The Opinions propose improving the internal organization and professional teams of financial institutions to enhance service capabilities and expand financial supply in the consumer sector [4]. - Support for various financing channels, including bonds and equity investments, is encouraged to bolster the financial backing for consumption-related enterprises [4]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Payment Services - The Opinions highlight the need to improve consumption infrastructure, including logistics and supply chain efficiency, to facilitate market expansion [6]. - Financial institutions are urged to enhance payment services across key consumption scenarios, ensuring compatibility among various payment methods to improve consumer experience [6]. Group 6: Implementation and Monitoring - The People's Bank of China will collaborate with relevant departments to accelerate the implementation of the Opinions, ensuring continuous monitoring and support for financial institutions in the consumer sector [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth, especially in the context of a changing external environment and weakened global demand [1][2] - The People's Bank of China, along with five other departments, has issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, outlining 19 key measures across six areas [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of enhancing consumer capacity and cultivating demand, the guidelines stress the need to stabilize consumer expectations and support employment and income growth to boost consumer confidence [2][3] - The guidelines propose five measures to improve financial institutions' specialized service capabilities and expand financial supply in the consumption sector, including optimizing credit products and increasing support for various consumption industries [3][4] - The guidelines also focus on increasing financial support for key consumption areas, encouraging financial institutions to provide services for product upgrades and new consumption models such as digital and green consumption [4][5] - The article highlights the importance of a favorable consumption environment in stimulating consumer enthusiasm and willingness to spend, with the People's Bank of China planning to monitor and implement these policies effectively [5]