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Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Shi Lei [2] - Research Assistant: Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Mid - to - Long - Term**: For steel and iron ore, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, macro - level positive impacts are weakening, and the market is returning to fundamental influences. With increasing environmental restrictions and approaching winter storage, there is an expectation of a mild rebound in steel and iron ore futures, but trading should be based on an oscillatory mindset. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, with stable supply and weak downstream demand, maintaining a weak pattern. Soda ash has a slight reduction in inventory, weak downstream demand, and a supply - surplus situation, with the main contract continuing a weak oscillatory trend [62][66] - **Short - Term**: For black series products, influenced by the "14th Five - Year Plan" on new infrastructure and stable real estate policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the overall market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week, but cooled on Friday. Steel, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are expected to oscillate, with risks of repeated fluctuations. Glass and soda ash followed the sector up and then down, with prices under pressure, and short - term trading should be based on fundamental logic [63][67] Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price (10/24/2025) | Futures Closing Price (10/31/2025) | Change | Percentage Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2601) | 3046.0 | 3106.0 | 60.0 | 2.0% | 3230.0 | 124.0 | | Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601) | 3250.0 | 3308.0 | 58.0 | 1.8% | 3330.0 | 22.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 771.0 | 800.0 | 29.0 | 3.8% | 814.0 | 14.0 | | Coke (J2601) | 1757.5 | 1777.0 | 19.5 | 1.1% | 1670.0 | - 107.0 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 1248.5 | 1286.0 | 37.5 | 3.0% | 1450.0 | 164.0 | | Glass (FG601) | 1092.0 | 1083.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.8% | 1210.0 | 127.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 1229.0 | 1225.0 | - 4.0 | - 0.3% | 1270.6 | 45.6 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On October 30, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 58 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply Side**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons; the rebar output was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons [12] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.3218 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,700 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 90,196 tons [16] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 66,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.7171 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons [21] Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 24, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,900 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.0843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 592,000 tons [26] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15.27293 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,440 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.84986 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229,330 tons [31] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the average daily discharge volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 331,220 tons, a week - on - week increase of 91,500 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 74,000 tons [36] Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, unchanged from the previous week; as of October 30, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%, unchanged [41] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 823,000 weight boxes compared to October 24; the available days of in - plant inventory were 28 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 days [46] Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.89%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points from the previous week; the output was 757,600 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week [50] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [55] - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of October 31, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 100.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, and the aluminum price is expected to be in a short - term strong shock [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of production during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished product continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and the winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - The news that Rio Tinto is considering closing the Tomago aluminum smelter boosts the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changes little. The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, the ore price rises slightly, and the decline of alumina price continues [3] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% month - on - month, a slight drop of 0.1% from last week, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [3] - On October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Overseas news affects market sentiment, the short - term fundamentals are stable, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **成材**: Expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, with the price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][2] - **铝锭**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill has stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - **Price Trend**: Yesterday, the price continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2] **铝锭** - **Macro - environment**: In September, the US consumer price increase was lower than expected, and the Fed may cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive [1] - **Raw Material Supply**: The supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, but due to the continuous decline of alumina prices and high absolute inventory, the increase in domestic ore prices is limited [2] - **Downstream Processing**: The overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises shows the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally". The start - up rates of different products vary, with some rising slightly and some falling [2] - **Inventory Situation**: On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - **Price Trend**: Affected by repeated overseas interference events, the short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is dated October 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Products (Chengcai) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Steel products are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with prices moving downward and the center of gravity shifting lower due to a weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment, and a lackluster winter storage season [1][3] - **Summary**: - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will shut down for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Later concerns include macro policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Aluminum Products - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with high - level fluctuations. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but macro overseas events affect market sentiment [1][4] - **Summary**: - On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 618,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The overall开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, with some sectors showing different trends [3] - The market is waiting for the US September CPI data, with an expected 0.4% month - on - month increase in overall CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI [2] - Later concerns include macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt prices in Northeast China have continued to decline in October, with a significant drop in both average and low prices due to multiple factors including falling crude oil prices and weak demand during the traditional peak season [1][3]. Market Price Changes - As of October 20, the average price in the Northeast market decreased by 125 CNY/ton to 3796 CNY/ton, while the low price dropped by 250 CNY/ton to 3506 CNY/ton compared to the end of September [1]. - The prices in Hebei and Shandong also fell, with Hebei's low price down by 300 CNY/ton to 3340 CNY/ton and Shandong's low price down by 170 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton [5]. Demand Factors - The arrival of the strongest cold air in the second half of the year has led to a rapid decline in demand, with temperatures dropping significantly across northern regions [5]. - The production of modified asphalt in Northeast China has largely ceased by mid-October due to low temperatures, further weakening demand [5]. Supply Factors - Northeast refineries have increased production, leading to a surplus and forcing them to lower prices to stimulate sales [7]. - The limited number of refineries capable of producing asphalt in the Northeast has resulted in increased pressure on prices due to competition from external suppliers [5][7]. Future Market Outlook - Attention is shifting towards winter storage, with the pricing for winter storage yet to be determined based on the actions of major refineries in Shandong and Hebei [7]. - Current weather conditions in Shandong and Hebei are still suitable for construction, and refineries are expected to maintain good processing profits, indicating that the timing for winter storage may still be early [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal price is expected to continue to rise due to low terminal inventory and increased winter storage demand from power plants, despite tight supply conditions influenced by regulatory scrutiny and maintenance on the Daqin Railway [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Coal supply is gradually recovering in production areas, but remains tight due to strict regulations and Daqin Railway maintenance. The cold weather in northern regions is leading to an expansion in heating coverage, which boosts the purchasing enthusiasm for winter storage by power plants, indicating a continued strong coal price outlook [1][2][3]. - In the coking coal sector, production increases are limited due to safety regulations and checks on overproduction, leading to pressure on the profits of downstream coking steel enterprises. There is resistance to high-priced coal types, but overall low inventory levels and winter storage needs suggest that coking coal prices will continue to fluctuate [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The equity market experienced a near-universal decline, but coal stocks significantly outperformed the indices. Uncertainties regarding US-China tariffs have increased market volatility. Following comments from Trump about tariffs on Chinese goods, there was a brief rally in US indices, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed strong risk aversion, with banks and coal sectors attracting capital [2][3]. - The average trading volume in the market was 2.1 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 210 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in trading volume compared to the previous week [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests continuing to focus on high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and high dividends, as these are likely to perform well in the current market environment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a gradual recovery in coal supply due to the cessation of rainfall, tight supply conditions persist due to stricter regulations and maintenance on the Daqin Railway, leading to expectations of strong coal prices as winter approaches and power plants increase procurement [1] - The coal sector is experiencing significant demand in the secondary market, with banks and coal stocks being favored by investors, resulting in coal stocks outperforming the broader market indices [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a high dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on investment opportunities within the coal sector [1] - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to increased cash flow and high dividends from quality coal stocks, making them attractive to investors [1]